PV Market in Japan. November 25th 2014, Izumi Kaizuka IEA PVPS Task 1 Expert, RTS Corporation

Transcription

1 PV Market in Japan November 25th 2014, Izumi Kaizuka IEA PVPS Task 1 Expert, RTS Corporation kaizuka@rts-pv.com

2 Contents Market status Industry status Challenges Outlook

3 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 2 nd largest market in 2013 Source:IEA PVPS Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, Survey Report of Selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2013(October, 2014)

4 2014 PV market outlook Source: IEA PVPS, RTS Corporation

5 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME PV PENETRATION: 1.4% Source:IEA PVPS Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, Survey Report of Selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2013(October, 2014)

6 Impact: PV market segment

7 Driver : Feed in Tariff Program Category FY 2013 FITs FY 2014 FITs < 10 kw (residential, excess power) Double Generation < 10 kw with batteries/fuel cells/ gas generator (residential, excess Power) 38 Yen/kWh ( 0.27 /kwh) 10 years 31 Yen/kWh (0.22 /kwh) 10 years 37 Yen/kWh (0.26 /kwh) 10 years 30 Yen/kWh (0.21 /kwh) 10 years 10kW (non-residential) Gross-FIT 36 Yen/kWh (0.26 /kwh) 20 years 32 Yen/kWh (0.23 /kwh) 20 years National subsidy for residential PV system :Terminated in March 2014

8 Contents Market status Industry status Challenges Outlook

9 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Cell production: 3 GW Module production: 3.6 GW Source:IEA PVPS Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, Survey Report of Selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2013(October, 2014)

10 Ratio of imported PV modules Source: Materials from Optoelectronics Industry and Technology Development Association (OITDA) and Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA), complied by RTS Corporation

11 PV modules suppliers Japanese players: still have strong share in residential PV market Overseas players: non-residential, utility-scale Bankability! is important! OEM approach: SunPower Toshiba, REC Panasonic, etc,.

12 Oversears Japanese Inverter suppliers Residential Commercial Large scale ( 東芝三菱電機産業システム ) ( 山洋電気 ) (Hitachi Applience) ( 日立産機システム ) ( 日立製作所 ) ( ニチコン委託生産 ) (XSOL) ( ウエスト HD) Higher entry barriers due to Japanese grid guideline No market for microinvertes potential is high!

13 Contents Market status Industry Status Challenges Outlook

14 Source: METI, compiled by RTS Corporation Trends of project approval As of July: 2014 FIT < 10kW 42 Yen/kWh 38 Yen/kWh 37 Yen/kWh 10kW or more 40 Yen/kWh 36 Yen/kWh 32 Yen/kWh

15 Five utilities suspend responses for grid connection contract - All the utility companies are IOU - conducts integrated business: generation, transmission & distribution - Unbundling bill will be discussed in the diet in 2015 aiming at completing in 2018 to 2020

16 Maximum demand and approved & commissioned capacity * Distribution of approved / start of operation capacity by electric company is partly based on estimation by RTS Corporation Source: Materials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Electricity Supply-Demand Verification Subcommittee

17 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Grid connected PV system price 2013(Unit: USD/W) Country Residential Commercial Industrial Ground mounted Australia 2.4~ ~ ~ ~2.59 Austria 2.7 <2 N/A N/A Belgium Canada Chine 1.6 Denmark 1.8~ ~ ~ ~1.8 France 4.4~ ~2.7 N/A 1.8~2.07 Germany 2.3~ ~2.3 N/A N/A Israel ~2.2 N/A N/A Italy 2.7~ ~2.7 N/A 1.3~1.8 Japan Korea 2.9~ ~2.9 N/A N/A Malaysia Netherland 1.68~ ~1.5 Norway Spain Sweden Switzerland 3.2~ ~ Thailand ~3.1 USA N/A 1.96 Source:IEA PVPS Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, Survey Report of Selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2013(October, 2014)

18 Comparison of residential system cost Levelized with 2009 cost

19 Contents Market status Industry Status Challenges Outlook

20 Commissioned capacity in 2014 Source: METI, RTS Corporation

21 RTS outlook toward FY 2020 (Ac-based, Fiscal Year) RTS Corporation: Updated annual report: Forecasting PV Installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2020 and FY 2030

22 Future direction of PV system PV system overcome the impacts on the grid PV modules Smart Inverters + Batteries, Transformers, Renewable and other energy sources - + EMS (Energy Management System) Grid power source Smart PV EMS with an approach from the side of energy source Houses, Buildings, Commercial facilities, Industrial facilities, Various other facilities, Community systems (Rural electrification systems) kw base kw base kwh base PV module PV system Smart PV Price competition Price/ performance competition Solution technology/ value competition 22

23 Thank you for your kind attention! Acknowledgement: NEDO for the support of IEA PVPS Steering committee of WCPEC-6 For further information about Japanese PV Market Oral presentation at WCPEC-6 9WeO.7 Wednesday, November 26, Room B-1 Area 9 Visit IEA PVPS website for further information Trends Report National Survey Report 2013 Japan Contact: Izumi Kaizuka kaizuka@rts-pv.com RTS Corporation