Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre

Transcription

1 Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Weekly Flood Situation Report for the Mekong River Basin Prepared at: /9/, covering the week from the 7 th August to rd September Weather Patterns, General Behaviour of the Mekong River and Flood Situation General weather patterns During the week of 7 th August to September, the weather bulletins were issued by the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of Cambodia. The weather maps were referenced from Thailand Meteorology Department (TMD) of the 9 th August and st September in the Figures & as follows: Figure : Weather map for 9 th August Figure : Weather map for st Sept Moderate South-West (SW) Monsoon During the last week, the low pressure was nominated the upper part of the Lower Mekong Basin which resulted in abundant rainfall occurred. (see Figure and ). Tropical depressions (TD), tropical storms (TS) or typhoons (TY) No TD, TS or TY was presented in LMB during last week. Other weather phenomena that affect the discharge According to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), there will influence the prevailing southwest monsoon over Mekong region, including the Gulf of Thailand to become more rainfall. The low pressure was hit the upper part of the Mekong region, during that time (see Fig.). Over weather situation During last week, the weather was scattered thundershowers with moderate rain of the Southwest monsoon. Consequently, in this week there was moderate rainfall covered from upper part of Luang Prabang and Vientiane to Khong Chaim and Pakse. The observed rainfall at Paksane to Pakse and the S area showed high rainfall between mm to mm. The weekly rainfall distribution is shown in Figure and daily rainfall at key stations in the Lower Mekong Basin are shown Table A. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

2 Figure : Weekly Rainfall Distribution over the LMB from 7 th August to rd September MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

3 General behaviour of the Mekong River During the last week, the water levels at stations from upper to middle part of LMB has been decreasing due to inflow operation upstream part, while at downstream part has been slightly rising. For stations from Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang Water levels from 7 th August to rd September at Chiang Sean station were fluctuated over its longterm average (LTA), while at Luang Prabang station water levels were likely nominated by hydro power dam operation upstream due to the increased water level from th August to st September varied from.7m on to 7. m. For stations from Chiang Khan, Vientiane and Nong Khai and Paksane Water levels at these stations were continued to reach to the alarm levels at Chiang Khan and Vientiane on from th August to rd September were reached to the alarm level on nd September for Chiang Khan (.) and rd September (.9 m). Water level at Nong Khai was reached to the flood level on nd September (. m) and continued further in next week. For stations from Nakon Phanom/Thakhet to Mukdaha/Sovannakhet Water levels from Nakhon Phanom/Thakhet to Mukdahan/Sovannakhet stations were continued to increase since a week before, resulted water level maintained to the flood levels from 7 th August to rd September. This caused rising water level was due to the heavy rainfall from Middle part of LMB, due to the low-pressure effect rainfall (see Fig. ). For stations from Khong Chiam to Pakse Water levels from Khong Chiam to Pakse stations were remained over the flood level up to nd September. For stations from Stung Treng to Kompong Cham/ Phnom Penh to Koh Khel/Neak Luong Water levels at at Stung Treng, Kratie, Kompong Cham and Phnom Penh stations were slightly increased from 7 th to th August and decreased gradually from st September. However, water level at Koh Khel were remained over the alarm levels. Tan Chau and Chau Doc Water level at these tidal stations were also maintained over the alarm levels from 7 th August to date, and it is expected to continue rising over their alarm levels next week. Note: For more detail the flood situation during the last week, please see the hydrographic in Annex C. Flood Situation Flood stage or alarm stage: This week the flood situation was happened at Nong Khai, Paksane, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan, Khong Chiam and Pakse. No damage or victims were reported by the Mekong member countries For more details see the following annexes: - tables and graphs for water level and rainfall for the last week in Annex A - a graph for accuracy in Annex B - a table of forecast achievement in Annex B - tables and graphs for performance in Annex B - the water level graphs showing the observed water level for the season in Annex C MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

4 Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Annex A: Graphs and Tables Table A: observed water levels Unit in m / / / / / / / / Table A: observed rainfall Unit in mm /. 7. nr nr.. nr nr - nr nr nr. nr /. nr nr.. nr.. - nr nr nr /. nr.... nr. nr nr nr nr nr - nr nr nr nr / nr - nr nr nr nr / nr. nr nr nr nr - nr. nr nr nr /... nr.9.9 nr nr nr nr nr nr - nr. nr nr nr /. nr nr 9... nr nr nr nr nr - nr. nr nr. / nr..7 nr. 7.. nr MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

5 Figure A: Observed water level and rainfall for Jinghong, Chiang Saen, and Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Sean Luang Prabang 9 7 Chau Doc observed water level Flood level Alarm Level Jinghong.. Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Average level: 9-7 Average level: (Jinghong) MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

6 Figure A: Observed water level and rainfall for Chiang Khan, Vientiane, Nongkhai, and Paksane Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

7 Figure A: Observed water level and rainfall for Nakhon Phanom, Thakhek, Mukdahan and Savannakhet Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Nakhon Phanom.... Thakhek Mukdahan..... Savannakhet MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page 7

8 Figure A: Observed water level and rainfall for Khong Chiam, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie. Khong Chiam Pakse. Stung Treng Kratie MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Kompong Cham, Phnom Penh (Bassac and Port), and Koh Khel Kompong Cham Pnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page 9

10 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Neak Luong, Prek Kdam, Tan Chau and Chau Doc Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc 9 7 Neak Luong Prek Kdam 9 Tan Chau Chau Doc 7 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

11 Annex B: Accuracy and performance Accuracy Accuracy describes the accuracy of the adjusted and published forecast, based on the results of the MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting System, which are then adjusted by the Flood Forecaster in Charge taking into consideration known biases in input data and his/her knowledge of the response of the model system and the hydrology of the Mekong River Basin. The information is presented as a graph below, showing the average flood forecasting accuracy along the Mekong mainstream. In general, the overall accuracy is fair for -day to -day forecast lead time at stations in the upper and lower parts of the LMB. However, the accuracies at upper and middle reaches of the LMB stations from Chaing Sean to Sovannakhet stations for -day to -day forecast were considered large. The above differences due to three main factors: () internal model functionality in forecasting; for which the parameter adjustment in the model is not possible especially at stations in the upper part and in the Mekong delta where are affected by tidal; () the adjustment by utilizing the practical knowledge and experience of flood forecaster-in-charge; and () the forecasted accumulated rainfall was not well represented. Figure B: Average flood forecast accuracy along the Mekong mainstream MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

12 Forecast Achievement The forecast achievement indicates the % of days that the forecast at a particular station for a lead-time is successful against a respective benchmark (Table B). Table B: Evaluation performance forecasting (from 7 th Aug to rd September ) base on New Benchmark (%). Unit in % Unit in cm MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

13 Table B: Evaluation performance forecasting (from 7 th Aug to rd September ) base on Old Benchmark (%). Unit in % Unit in cm Note: An indication of the accuracy given in the Table B is based on the performance of the forecast made in from the new flood forecasting system and the configuration for the 9 flood season and is published on the website of MRC ( A new set of performance indicators that is established by combining international standards and the specific circumstances in the Mekong River Basin, is applied officially for the flood season of onward. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

14 Time FF completed and sent (time) Stations without forecast FF completed and sent (time) Weather data available (time) NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - SRHMC Viet Nam - HMS NOAA data/dataset China/ Cambodia - DHRW/ Cambodia - DOM/ Lao PDR - DMH/ Thailand - DWR/ Viet Nam - SRHMC/ Viet Nam - HMS/9 Performance Performance is assessed by evaluating a number of performance indicators, see table and graphs below: Table B: Overview of performance indicators for the past 7 days including the current report date FF time sent Arrival time of input data Missing data (number-mainstream and trib.st.) week : : - - : 7: 7: 7: :7 : 7: : 9 month : : - - : 7: 7: 7: : : 7: : Week is the week for which this report is made; Month is actually the last days (or less if the flood season has just begun); Season is the current flood season up to the date of this report. 9: : 7: : : : : : : Data Delivery - Delivery Times Figure B: Data delivery times for the past days including the current report date Date NOAA data/dataset China/ Cambodia - DHRW/ Cambodia - DOM/ Lao PDR - DMH/ Thailand - DWR/ Viet Nam - SRHMC/ Viet Nam - HMS/9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

15 Number Date Figure B: Missing data for the past days including the current report date Data Delivery - Missing Data NOAA data/dataset China/ Cambodia - DHRW/ Cambodia - DOM/ Lao PDR - DMH/ Thailand - DWR/ Viet Nam - SRHMC/ Viet Nam - HMS/9 Time : Flood Forecast - Completion Time Flood Forecast - Stations without Forecast Time : Flood Forecast - Second Forecast Needed : : : : : : 9: Date Date 9: Date Figure B: Flood forecast completion time Figure B: Flood forecast stations without forecast Figure B: Second forecast needed MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

16 Annex C: Season Water Level Graphs This Annex has the water level graphs of the report date. These graphs are distributed daily by together with the Flood Bulletins. HYDROGRAPHS OF THE MEKONG AT MAINSTREAM STATIONS IN FLOOD SEASON FROM JUNE TO OCTOBER Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Jing Hong -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Time in days Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Saen -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Time in days MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

17 Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Luang Prabang -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Time in days Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Khan -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Vientiane -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page 7

18 Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Nong Khai -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Paksane -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Nakhon Phanom -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Time in days MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

19 Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Thakhek -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Savannakhet -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Mukdahan -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page 9

20 Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Khong Chiam -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Pakse -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Stung Treng -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

21 Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Kratie -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Kampong Cham -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Phnom Penh Chaktomuk -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

22 Water Level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Phnom Penh Port -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Bassac at Koh Khel 7 -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Neak Luong 7 -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page

23 Water Level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Prek Kdam -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Mekong at Tan Chau - -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av Water Level at 7am of Bassac at Chau Doc - -Jun -Jun -Jul -Jul -Jul -Aug -Aug -Sep 9-Sep -Oct 9-Oct -Nov Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 7 th August to rd September Page