Global Energy Statistics. Kevin Gaughan

Transcription

1 Global Energy Statistics Kevin Gaughan 1

2 Important Sources of Information International Energy Agency: International body founded by the OECD originally focused on oil but now taking a wider remit on global energy issues. Excellent source of Global statistical information. Sadly they charge for many of their reports but summaires are often available for free download: US Department of Energy: Has huge free archive of global energy related information. 2

3 Irish Government Departments Department of Communications Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR previously DCMNR) Responsible for top level Energy Policy Publishes Energy Policy Papers. Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG) Responsible for Ireland s Climate Change Strategy 3

4 Irish Government Agencies Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland: Promote and Assist the development of Sustainable Energy in Ireland. NB Best source of statistics on Irish Energy usage. The Commission for Energy Regulation (CER) The independent body responsible for overseeing the liberalisation of Ireland's energy sector. Irelands Energy Regulator Particularly significant in Electricity, Gas and Renewables. 4

5 Government Agencies Continued Environmental Protection Agency EPA protects the environment through its licensing, enforcement and monitoring activities.. The EPA has a role in energy issues through its responsibility for implementing the National Climate Change Policy particularly in respect to Emissions Trading. 5

6 Primary Energy Energy Supply is about Primary Energy Total Energy content of the original resource. Primary Energy includes Oil, Gas, Coal, other fossil fuels, Nuclear, Hydro, Biofuels, Wind, Solar and other renewables. Total Primary Energy Supply measures all of the energy used in a country in its original form at the point of production or import Total Final Consumption measures energy at the point of use it includes electricity demand and other derived fuels. The difference between Total primary energy and total final consumption is mainly due to inefficiencies in energy conversion but there are also distribution losses, non energy uses and some statistical errors. (Note Electricity is not a form of primary energy but TPES may include electricity if a country imports it) 6

7 What is all that Energy used for? Source: SEAI Energy in Ireland

8 Important Units Tonnes of Oil Equivalent 1toe = GJ Billion Cubic Metres (of Natural Gas) 1 bcm = 39 PJ (10 15 J) Barrels of Oil 1 boe = 5.71 GJ Joule = SI Unit of Energy kilowatt Hour = 1kWh=3.6 MJ British Thermal Unit (BTU)= 1055 J Calorie = 1 cal = 4.19 J (note in food 1Calorie = 1000 calories) 8

9 Key World Energy Statistics Please Refer to latest free version of IEA Key World Energy Statistics for the graphics pertaining to the remainder of this lecture. Note the latest latest version of IEA Key World Energy Statistics can be pricy but you can download last years version for free from 9

10 GLOBAL TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 10

11 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

12 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

13 World Primary Energy Supply From 1973 to 2009 Total Primary Energy Consumption Grew by 99% Oil Remains the most important fuel source (transport) but its share has decreased. The reduction in oil s share has primarily been taken up by Nuclear and Gas The percentage of Primary Energy coming from renewable sources is virtually unchanged 13

14 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

15 GLOBAL TOTAL FINAL CONSUPMPTION 15

16 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

17 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

18 World Total Final Consumption Increasing Importance of Electricity Slight Reduction in Proportion of Coal and Oil but coal and oil used in electricity generation is hidden in this chart. In 1973 Total Final Consumption was 77% of Total Primary Energy. In 2009 Total Final Consumption was only 69% of Primary Energy. Why? 18

19 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

20 Regional Share of Total Final Consumption Consumption is growing but developing nations (China/Asia) are growing at the fastest rate. Total Final Consumption pattern follows closely to Total Final demand There are some differences. What could explain these? 20

21 ELECTRICITY 21

22 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

23 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

24 Electricity Generation Electricity generation has increased by over 200% Developing Economies, particularly China, account for much of this growth. Electricity is the life blood of modern Society 24

25 OIL 25

26 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

27 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

28 Crude Oil Production Oil is still our most important source of primary energy Although oil production has grown the regional split remains similar but Mid East is less dominant. In 1973 OAPEC (embargo) and OPEC (Price Setting) initiated first global oil crisis. 28

29 Peak Oil Source: Wiki[pedia 13/9/

30 Observations Peak oil theory tries to predict the point of maximum oil production. Current thinking suggests that peak oil is now. NB Beware Wikipedia. It is a fabulous resource but it is not considered reliable enough to use as an academic reference. 30

31 OUTLOOK TO

32 Outlook International Energy Agency Predictions up to

33 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

34 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

35 International Energy Agency Key World Energy Statistics

36 Geographical Regions OECD Traditional Developed Nations OECD+: OECD + Non OECD EU countries OME: Other Major Economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and the Middle East OC: Other Countries (Everybody Else) 36

37 Comments on IEA Energy Outlook Reference Scenario represents 50% increase on todays TPES. Alternative Policy (Best Case?) Scenario is still a 34% increase Pretty conservative estimate relative positions of oil and other fuels are unchanged. 37

38 Exercise Download the latest (free version) Key World Energy statistics and look for the historical energy price graphs. 38