Analysis of Multi-Pollutant Initiatives in Electricity Markets

Transcription

1 Analysis of Multi-Pollutant Initiatives in Electricity Markets Presented to the 25 th USA/IAEE North American Conference By Robert T Eynon Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy September 19, 25

2 Emission Targets in S.366, S.843, and S.1844 Emission S. 366, Clean Power Act (Jeffords) S. 843, Clean Air Planning Act (Carper) S. 1844, Clear Skies Act (Inhofe) Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ) 1.51 million tons in million tons in million tons in million tons in million tons in 218 a Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) 2.25 million tons in 29 b 4.5 million tons in million tons in million tons in million tons in million tons in 218 Mercury (Hg) 5 tons in 28 c 24 tons in 29 1 tons in 213 d 34 tons in tons in 218 Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 1,863 million metric tons CO 2 (58 million metric tons carbon equivalent) in 29 e 2,332 million metric tons CO 2 (636 million metric tons carbon equivalent) in 29 2,244 million metric tons CO 2 (612 million metric tons carbon equivalent) in 213 f No cap

3 National Energy System Modeling Oil and Gas Supply Module Macroeconomic Activity Module International Energy Module Residential Demand Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Integrating Commercial Demand Module Coal Market Module Module Transportation Demand Module Renewable Fuels Module Electricity Market Module Petroleum Market Module Industrial Demand Module Supply Conversion Demand

4 Clear Skies Act Emissions cap and trade Safety valve Grandfathering (based on fuel consumption) Covers plants 25 megawatts and larger

5 Clean Air Planning Act Covers facilities 25 megawatt and greater Minimum removal rate for mercury Emissions cap and trade Grandfathering (output based)

6 Clean Power Act Covers facilities 15 megawatts and larger Emissions cap and trade except for Hg Maximum emissions rate specified Birthday provision (best available control technology)

7 Analysis of Clear Skies Act (Inhofe) Add emissions control equipment Use early credit program for mercury Emissions targets not met for SO 2 or Hg Lowest resource cost and smallest price increase CO 2 emissions increase over time

8 Analysis of Clean Air Planning Act (Carper) Additions of emissions control equipment Switch into natural gas and renewables Sensitive to availability and cost of offsets Higher resource costs than Clear Skies Act CO 2 Emissions increase

9 Analysis of Clean Power Act (Jeffords) Switching to gas, renewables, and nuclear Birthday provision causes emissions for NO x, Hg and SO 2 to fall below targets Has highest resource costs

10 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Alternative Cases (million tons) Reference Inho fe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords Inhofe Targets Carper Jeffords

11 Electricity Sector Mercury Emissions in Alternative Cases (tons) 6 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords Targets Inhofe Carper Jeffords

12 Electricity Sector Carbon and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Alternative Cases 14 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords Dollars per MetricTon Carbon Equivalent Dollars per Metric Ton CO 2 Equivalent

13 Nitrogen Oxide Allowance Price in the East (22 dollars per ton) 3, Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords 2,5 2, 1,5 1,

14 Sulfur Dioxide Allowance Price in the East (22 dollars per ton) 2,5 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords 2, 1,5 1,

15 Mercury Allowance Price (thousand 22 dollars per pound) 8 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords

16 Carbon Allowance Price (22 dollars per metric ton carbon equivalent) 14 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords Dollars per MetricTon Carbon Equivalent 22 Dollars per Metric Ton CO2 Equivalent

17 Coal-Fired Generation in Alternative Cases (billion kilowatthours) 3,5 3, 2,5 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords 2, 1,5 1,

18 Natural Gas-Fired Generation in Alternative Cases (billion kilowatthours) 1,8 1,6 1,4 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords 1,2 1,

19 Renewable Generation in Alternative Cases (billion kilowatthours) 1,4 1,2 1, Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords

20 Electricity Prices in Alternative Cases (22 cents per kilowatthour) 12 Reference Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords

21 Change in Resource Cost (billion 22 dollars) Inhofe Carper International Carper Domestic Jeffords

22 Electricity Market Impacts Emission targets aren t met in 21 for Hg (Inhofe) or CO 2 (Carper) Emissions decline more in the Jeffords Case Coal generation declines in all cases. Electricity prices increase more rapidly in the Jeffords Case.

23 If you have questions: address: