Climate Change in Southern NH

Transcription

1 Climate Change in Southern NH Cameron Wake Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space Josephine A. Lamprey Professor, Climate & Sustainability University of New Resilient Nashua Summit 18 December2018

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4 Temperature & Carbon Dioxide Lüthi et al. (2008); IPCC 2013

5 Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies January December 17 of 18 warmest years

6 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent Average Sea Ice Minimum (yellow line) 2012 Sea ice Minimum

7 Arctic Sea Ice movie

8 Antarctic Ice Loss (125 gigatons/yr)

9 Greenland Ice Loss (281 gigatons/yr)

10 Sea Level Rise NOAA State of the Climate

11 Change in Global Annual Average Radiative Forcing NCA 2017 Climate Science Special Report

12 New Hampshire Climate Assessments ClimateSolutionsNE.org

13 Precipitation Events >4 in 48 hrs per Decade Daily data from US Global Historical Climatology Network

14 Federal Expenditures on FLOOD RELATED Presidentially Declared Disasters And Emergency Declarations in NH 2005: Alstead/Keene Floods (Oct) 2006: Mother s Day Flood (May) 2007: Patriots Day Flood (April) 2011: Irene 2012: Flooding; Sandy

15 Hamilton (2017) Public Acceptance of Human-Caused Climate change is Gradually rising.

16 Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios Key Input for GCM projections of future climate change IPCC 2013 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 ~26 indicators total

17 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Downscale Global Projections to Regional Level Projections from 29 different CMIP5 global climate model simulations. Statistically downscaled using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA).

18 Northeast US: Annual Maximum Temperature Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

19 Manchester, NH: Annual Maximum Temperature Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

20 Future Climate: Annual Maximum Temperature RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

21 Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep. RCP 4.5 Days >90 o F RCP 8.5

22 RCP 4.5 Annual Cooling Degree (degrees per day above 65 o F) RCP 8.5 Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

23 Winter (DJF) Minimum Temperatures RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

24 Northeast US: Maximum Temperature

25 New England: Annual Precipitation Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

26 New England: Annual Precipitation Burakowski et al. in prep; Wake et al., in prep.

27 Future Climate: Annual Precipitation (1 inch ~ 25 mm) RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

28 MAM Precipitation (1 inch ~ 25 mm) RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

29 Snow Cover (snow water equivalent SWE)

30 NH Coastal Risk and Hazard Commission Preparing NH for Projected Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise & Extreme Precipitation Our Guiding Principles Act Early Respond Incrementally Revisit and Revise Collaborate and Coordinate Incorporate Risk Tolerance in Design Make No Regrets Decisions

31 Sea Level Rise (NH STAP 2014) Recommendation: Where there is little tolerance for risk and for design period of : Commit to manage to 3.9 ft of SLR by 2100, and be prepared to manage to 6.6 feet.

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33 Historical and Projected Global Mean Sea Level Rise (2017) USGCRP 2017: SCCR, 4th NCA

34 Solutions? Mitigation & Adaptation Climate Change is the Innovation Opportunity of the 21 st Century 1. Price on carbon 2. Promote energy efficiency & renewables 3. Conserve ecosystems (key carbon sinks) 4. Transition to lower carbon food system 5. Adapt to unavoidable climate change

35 Collaboration: New England Municipal Sustainability (NEMS) Network (member of USDN) The NEMS Network is a consortium of New England cities and towns that collaborate to build more sustainable communities consistent with the goals of the Global Covenant of Mayors. Peer-to-peer support, Sustainability Fellows Multi-community initiatives

36 Carbon Fee and Dividend Citizens Climate Lobby 1. Place a steadily rising fee on fossil fuels Initial fee of $15/metric ton on the CO 2 e emissions of fossil fuels, escalating by $10/metric ton each year

37 Carbon Fee and Dividend Citizens Climate Lobby 1. Place a steadily rising fee on fossil fuels Initial fee of $15/metric ton on the CO 2 e emissions of fossil fuels, escalating by $10/metric ton each year 2. Give 100% of the fees minus administrative costs back to households each month. 100% of the net fees from the carbon fee are returned directly to households as a monthly dividend

38 Carbon Fee and Dividend Citizens Climate Lobby 1. Place a steadily rising fee on fossil fuels Initial fee of $15/metric ton on the CO 2 e emissions of fossil fuels, escalating by $10/metric ton each year 2. Give 100% of the fees minus administrative costs back to households each month. 100% of the net fees from the carbon fee are returned directly to households as a monthly dividend 3. Use a border adjustment to stop business relocation. Import fees on products imported from countries without a carbon fee, along with rebates to US industries exporting to those countries.

39 New England: Decoupling Economic Growth from Energy Use

40 UNH Durham Campus Reducing GHG Emissions

41 Levelised Cost of Electricity

42 Levelised Cost of Energy

43 Global Investment in Renewable Energy, $Billions

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45 Climate Change Five Key Facts It s real. It s us. Scientists agree. It s bad. We can fix it.