Climate change and climate change adaptation An introduction Seite Page 11

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1 Climate change and climate change adaptation An introduction Seite Page 11

2 Imprint As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg Eschborn, Germany T F Contact E climate@giz.de I GIZ Climate Protection Programme Responsible Ilona Porsché, GIZ; Michael Scholze, GIZ Authors Jennifer Frankel-Reed, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder, Ilona Porsché Contributions by Alfred Eberhardt, Mark Svendsen, Lea Herberg, Martin Baumgart, Udo Höggel, Michael Scholze, Alexander Fröde, Nana Künkel, members of the OECD Task Team on Climate Change and Development Co-operation Coordination Ilona Porsché, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder Photo credits GIZ/Climate Protection Programme and Claudia Altmann, Dirk Ostermeier, Florian Kopp, Georg Buchholz, Ira Olaleye, Jörg Böthling, Manuel Hauptmann, Markus Kirchgessner, Michael Gajo, Michael Netzhammer, Nicole Herzog, Peter Korneffel, Richard Lord, Robert Heine, Rüdiger Behrens, Ulrich Scholz, Ursula Meissner, Uwe Rau Design Ira Olaleye Articles written by named authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors Seite Page 22

3 Overview Climate change Greenhouse effect Emissions Scenarios Climate change impacts The development concern Adaptation to climate change Definition Costs Operationalising adaptation Seite Page 33

4 Climate change Seite Page 44

5 Source: Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group 1. Contribution to the 4. AR Seite Page 55

6 CO 2 concentration over time Oct 2010: 388 ppm World Development report p Seite Page 66

7 The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes Source: World Development report Focus A: The science of climate change. Adapted from IPCC Seite Page 77

8 Global greenhouse gas emissions: composition Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva Seite Page 88

9 Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector Source: Stern, N The Economics of Climate Change. World Bank Minding the Stock Seite Page 99

10 Trying to look into the future Emission scenarios A2 heterogeneous world, high population, slow economic development and technological change A1T - very intensive development, population peak mid century A1T new technologies with use of non-fossil energy sources A1Fl fossil intensive energy supply B1 same population as A1, rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and information economy, introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva, adapted by CDE Seite Page 10 10

11 Greenhouse gas emissions by region (2004) Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva Seite Page 11 11

12 Example: Projected temperature changes scenario Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva Seite Page 12 12

13 Example: Projected temperature changes spatial distribution For 2090; reference period: Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva Seite Page 13 13

14 Projected impact on human well-being 2 C Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva Seite Page 14 14

15 Example: Climate change and the development concern (1) Thailand Kiribati Argentina Source: WWF Climate Witness: Seite Page 15 15

16 Example: Climate change and the development concern (2) Thailand Kiribati Argentina Source: WWF Climate Witness: Seite Page 16 16

17 Total aid flows in millions USD, Example: Climate change and the development concern (3) ~30 60% of ODA potentially affected by climate change Aid flows affected by climate risk in red Shaded areas indicate uncertainty. Fiji Bangladesh Egypt Tanzania Uruguay Nepal Fiji Source: OECD, Bridge Over Troubled Waters (2005) Seite Page 17 17

18 Adaptation to climate change Seite Page 18 18

19 Defining adaptation Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc. Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses Seite Page Source: UNDP

20 CO 2 -emissions CO 2 -emissions External cost External cost Of CO 2 -emissions Of CO 2 -emissions Emissions air pollutan Emissions of co air pollutants External cost of air po External cost o external costs external costs Adaptation a case for urgency measures measures Reaction time Reaction time emissions emissions external costs external costs Quelle: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss Accademics,2007 Quelle: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss Accademics,2007 Source: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss academics, Seite Page 20 20

21 Costs: Estimated adaptation costs and investment requirements in developing countries Source World Bank as revised by the Stern Review (2006) Estimate (US$ bn/yr) 4 37 Oxfam (2007) 8 33 UNFCCC (2007) (in 2030) UNDP: HDR (in 2016) World Bank (2009) ( ) Seite Page 21 21

22 Costs: Estimates by sector Sector Agriculture, forestry and fisheries (production, processing, R&D) Water supply (water supply infrastructure) Human health (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) Coastal zone (beach nourishment and dykes) Infrastructure (new infrastructure adaptation) Global (billion USD) Share in developing countries 14 50% 11 80% 5 100% 11 40% % Source: UNFCCC Seite Page 22 22

23 Operationalising adaptation Seite Page 23 23

24 What are adaptation options? Policy Improve regulations, adjust incentive system, enhance participation of affected communities Infrastructure For example: Water control construct dykes, improve climate-resilient infrastructure Capacity development Improve monitoring of sea temperature, erosion rates; improve management skills Research Monitoring for policy advise, climate-resilient breeds/species Good practices Soil conservation, to improve agricultural yields, keep ecosystem functions intact Source: Adapted from USAID Seite Page 24 24

25 Who acts and how? Public sector responsibilities: setting rules and regulations for public assets, public services, public goods, social protections, preventing conflict and managing migration Individuals and communities: household preparedness, autonomous adaptation, share losses Private sector: integrate climate risks into project design and services (climate-resilient investments) International cooperation: financial responsibility, resilient ODA, capacity development Source: Adapted from OECD Policy Guidance Seite Page 25 25

26 Difference between business-as-usual development and adaptation A continuum: Human development and vulnerability reduction response capacity managing climate change risks confronting climate change Source: WRI Seite Page 26 26

27 A systematic and strategic approach to adaptation Screening brief check if, what and where (M1) Analysis Detailed assessment of need for adaptation action (M3) What are adaptation options? (M4) Which are the priorities? (M5) How can we track changes and learn from experiences? (M6) Prepare implementation Develop according capacities (M7) Financing Implementation 4-step approach can be done at national, sectoral, local and project level Seite Page 27 27

28 Addressing climate change improves development effectiveness Cost-effective: Ignoring climate risks can be costly. Prevention through adaptation is cheaper. Integrated: Adaptation looks at multiple stressors including climate and non-climate, and can prevent maladaptation. Flexible: Adaptation builds institutional and technical capacity to adjust to risks over time as they evolve, improving flexibility. Source: Adapted from UNDP Seite Page 28 28

29 Example: Comparing prevention vs. reconstruction costs of infrastructure in the Caribbean Infrastructure Deepwater Port (Dominica) Norman Manley Law School (Jamaica) Troumasse Bridge (St. Lucia) Grand Palazzo Hotel (St. Thomas) Original project cost 57,000, , ,000 28,000,000 Reconstruction costs after disaster 2,310,000 28,800 32,000 5,308,000 RMNH costs as % of original construction costs 11.5% 1.9% 10.8% 0.1% RMNH costs as % of reconstruction costs 28.0% 45.0% 62.4% 0.5% RMNH = Risk management of natural hazards approach Amounts given in 2005 US Dollars Source: Adapted from Bettencourt et al Seite Page 29 29