Background and objectives

Transcription

1 Workshop on greenhouse gas emission projections December 2006, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen Background and objectives André Jol Head of Group climate change and energy European Environment Agency 1

2 Key underlying policy questions Annual Commission progress report and EEA (background) report: Are the EU-15, Member States and other EEA countries on track to reach their Kyoto targets? How effective are existing measures? What additional measures are needed? How are the different sectors performing? Which sectors need the most efforts? 2

3 EU-15 Kyoto target could be reached with existing and additional domestic measures, and with additional use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks Base year level emissions 2010 projections by Member States in 2006 Existing domestic policies and measures 0.6 % 2004 emissions: 0.9 % Additional domestic policies and measures 4.0 % Use of Kyoto mechanisms by ten Member States 2.6 % Use of carbon sinks 0.8 % EU-15 Kyoto target: 8 % Total 2010 projected emissions: 8.0 % 3

4 Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions EU CO 2 emissions trading scheme (NAP2 not analysed) Promotion of electricity from renewable energy Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP) Improvements in the energy performance of buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances Promotion of biofuels in transport Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new passenger cars Recovery of gases from landfills Reduction of fluorinated gases 4

5 Assessment of progress to targets National projections for 2010 Policies and measures included in national projections EU-15 Member States New Member States Other EEA countries Existing domestic policies and measures Sweden* United Kingdom* Lithuania Poland Iceland Kyoto target on track Existing and planned domestic policies and measures France* Germany Greece Czech Republic* Estonia Hungary Latvia Slovakia Slovenia* Bulgaria Romania Existing domestic policies and measures Use of Kyoto mechanisms Luxembourg Existing and planned domestic policies and measures Use of Kyoto mechanisms Finland the Netherlands* Switzerland Existing and planned domestic policies and measures Norway Liechtenstein Kyoto target not on track Existing and planned domestic policies and measures Use of Kyoto mechanisms Austria* Belgium* Denmark* Ireland* Italy Portugal* Spain* No Kyoto target Cyprus Malta Turkey Notes: National projections provided by 6 June 2006 have been taken into account in this report. * Projected net removal from carbon sink activities 5

6 Changes in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions by sector and shares of sectors EU-15 GHG emissions decreased in most sectors, except transport (+26%) Energy-related emissions are projected to be 2 % below 1990 levels by 2010, and emissions from transport to be 35% above, with existing measures. 6

7 Media response to the EC progress report and the EEA report More than 40 press articles identified in Europe and North America (printed/internet) Countries were press coverage was identified include: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA, Canada Example of headlines: Much heat but little light (The Irish Times, Ireland) EU Says More Needed for Environment (Guardian, UK) EU must take immediate action on Kyoto targets (Emis, Belgium) EU Kyoto target "within reach, but only just (ENDS Europe) EU says it is on track to meet greenhouse gas targets under Kyoto (Financial Times, UK) EU environment agency: some members not doing enough to fight climate change (AP Worldstream, USA ) 7

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10 Objectives of the workshop reminder of 2007 projections reporting requirements under the Monitoring Mechanism identify and address key technical barriers to good reporting share best practice among Member States identify ways in which EU wide model projections can help Member States improve national projections provide recommendations to improve reporting identify ways to reduce the reporting burden, and emphasize synergies with GHG inventory reporting and other reporting (e.g. NEC) identify issues for the 2008 review of the Monitoring Mechanism 10

11 11 Additional information

12 Monitoring Mechanism, Art. 3(2) requires qualitative and quantitative reporting for PAMs and GHG emission projections Member States shall report to the EC by 15 March 2005 and very two years thereafter, on: a. Relevant national PAMs on a sectoral basis for each greenhouse gas b. National projections of greenhouse gas emissions and removals for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 by gas and by sector c. Information on: Measures being taken or planned to implement EU legislation and policies Legal and institutional steps to prepare to implement commitments under the Kyoto protocol Arrangements for, and implementation of compliance and enforcement procedures d. Information on institutional and financial arrangements and decision making procedures to coordinate and support activities related to participation in Kyoto flexible mechanisms 12

13 Reporting requirements on PAMs include reporting of indicators and quantitative estimates Information on national PAMs should include the following details: Objective of PAM Type of policy instrument Description of the actual and expected interaction with other relevant PAMs and EU policies and legislation Status of implementation (incl. those expired or repealed) Indicators to monitor and evaluate progress (cf. Annex III to Implementing Provisions), including indicators for projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 Quantitative estimates of the effect of PAM between base-year and subsequent years (incl. 2005, 2010 and 2015), including economic impacts to the extent feasible The extent to which domestic action constitutes a significant element of the efforts undertaken The extent to which Kyoto mechanisms is supplemental to domestic actions 13

14 Indicators listed for projections to monitor and evaluate progress with policies and measures (Annex III to the Implementing Provisions) 14

15 Reporting requirements on projections of greenhouse gas emissions include two types of projections and reporting of projection parameters National projections of GHG emissions for years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 by gas and by sector should include: Clearly identified with measures (implemented and adopted PAMs ) and with additional measures projections Projections may include information on without measures projections (excluding all policies and measures implemented, adopted or planned) Clear identification of the PAMs included Results of sensitivity analysis performed (measure of model robustness) Description of methodologies, models, underlying assumptions and key input and output parameters including, if used, mandatory parameters (cf. Annex IV-1 to Implementing Provisions) Member States are encouraged to: report on recommended parameters (cf. Annex IV-2 to Implementing Provisions) Define a high, central and low scenario for the key input variables and to quantify projected emissions for these scenarios Include a measure of robustness of their predictive model and its methods used for their assessments. 15

16 List of mandatory parameters on projections (Annex IV-1 1 to the Implementing Provisions) 1/2 Sector General economic parameters Assumptions Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (value at given years or annual growth rate and base year) Population (value at given years or annual growth rate and base year) International coal prices at given years in euro per tonne or GJ (Gigajoule) International oil prices at given years in euro per barrel or GJ International gas prices at given years in euro per m3 or GJ Energy Total gross inland consumption in Petajoule (PJ) (split by oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear, other) Total electricity production by fuel type (oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear, other) Energy demand by sector split by fuel (delivered) (suggested sectors are energy industries, industry, commercial or tertiary, residential and transport) Assumptions on weather parameters, especially heating or cooling degree days Industry Transport For Member States using macroeconomic models: The share of the industrial sector in GDP and growth rate For Member States using other models: The production index for industrial sector (suggested split is energy intensive industry based on physical production and manufacturing industry based on monetary value) For Member States using macroeconomic models: The growth of transport relative to GDP For Member States using other models: The growth of passenger person kilometres The growth of freight tonne kilometres 16

17 Sector List of mandatory parameters on projections (Annex IV-1 1 to the Implementing Provisions) 2/2 Buildings (in residential and commercial or tertiary) Agriculture Assumptions For Member States using macroeconomic models: The level of private consumption (excluding private transport) The share of the tertiary sector in GDP and the growth rate For Member States using other models: The rate of change of floor space for tertiary buildings and dwellings The number of dwellings and number of employees in the tertiary sector For Member States using macroeconomic models: The share of the agriculture sector in GDP and relative growth For Member States using other models: The livestock numbers by animal type (for enteric fermentation beef, cattle and dairy cows, sheep, for manure management also pigs and poultry) The area of crops by crop type The emissions factors by type of livestock for enteric fermentation and manure management and by type of crop and the fertilizer use (tonnes) Waste Waste generation per head of population or tonnes of municipal solid waste The organic fractions of municipal solid waste Municipal solid waste disposed to landfills, incinerated or composted (in tonnes or %) Forestry Forest definitions Areas of: o managed forests o unmanaged forests 17

18 List of recommended parameters on projections (Annex IV-2 2 to the Implementing Provisions) 1/3 Assumptions for general economic parameters GDP growth rates split by industrial sectors in relation to 2000 Comparison projected data with official forecasts Assumptions for the energy sector National coal, oil and gas energy prices per sector (including taxes) suggested sectors are electricity and heat generation, industry, commercial, residential and transport. Constant prices should be quoted National electricity prices per sector as above (may be model output) Total production of district heating by fuel type Assumptions for the industry sector Assumptions fluorinated gases: Aluminium production and emissions factors Magnesium production and emissions factors Foam production and emissions factors Stock of refrigerant and leakage rates For Member States using macroeconomic models: Share of GDP for different sectors and growth rates Rate of improvement of energy intensity (1990 = 100) For Member States using other models: Index of production for different sectors Rate of improvement or index of energy efficiency 18

19 List of recommended parameters on projections (Annex IV-2 2 to the Implementing Provisions) 2/3 Assumptions for buildings (in residential and commercial or tertiary sector) For Member States using macroeconomic models: Share of tertiary and household sectors in GDP Rate of improvement of energy intensity For Member States using other models: Number of households Number of new buildings Rate of improvement of energy efficiency (1990 = 100) Assumptions for the transport sector For Member States using econometric models: Growth of transport relative to GDP split by passenger and freight Improvements in energy efficiency split by vehicle type Improvements in energy efficiency split by vehicle type, specify whether it applies to whole fleet or new cars Rate of change of modal split (passenger and freight) The growth of passenger road kilometres The growth of passenger rail kilometres The growth of passenger aviation kilometres The growth of freight tonne kilometres on the road The growth of freight tonne kilometres by rail The growth of freight tonne kilometres by navigation 19

20 List of recommended parameters on projections (Annex IV-2 2 to the Implementing Provisions) 3/3 Assumptions for the agriculture sector For Member States using econometric models: Agricultural trade (import/export) Domestic consumption (e.g. milk/beef consumption) For Member States using other models: Development of area of crops, grassland, arable, set-aside, conversion to forests etc Macroeconomic assumptions behind projections of agricultural activity Description of livestock Development of farming types Distribution of housing/grazing systems and housing/grazing period Parameters of fertiliser regime: Details of fertiliser use; Volatilisation rate of ammonia, following spreading of manure on the soil; Efficiency of manure use. Parameters of manure management system: Distribution of storage facilities (e.g. with or without cover): Nitrogen excretion rate of manures Methods of application of manure Extent of introduction of control measures (storage systems, manure application), use of best available techniques Parameters related to nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils Amount of manure treatment 20