Building Low Carbon Society for climate change mitigation. Mai Trong Nhuan, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

Transcription

1 Building Low Carbon Society for climate change mitigation Mai Trong Nhuan, Vietnam National University, Hanoi

2 Issues to be focused (OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION) 1. Why is climate change mitigation very urgent 2. Measures for climate change mitigation - CCM 3. Building low carbon society one of the best solutions for CCM 4. Resilience-Sustainable living for LCS 5.Building low carbon society Case study of Vietnam 6. Proposals for future cooperation between scientistsmedia for CCM

3 What you expect from the workshop, the topic 1.? 2.? 3.? 4.? 5.? 6.?

4 Questions for group discussion 1. Why is climate change mitigation (CCM) very urgent? 2. In your country which is the best measures for climate change mitigation - CCM 3. The challenges and opportunities in your country for building LCS aiming at CCM 4. The best practices from your country for Building low carbon society for CCM 5. What kind of cooperation between scientists-media for CCM

5 I. Why low carbon development, society 1.1. Causes and consequences of human emissions IMPACTS CLIMATE Vulnerability SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Natural Variability Socioeconomic Pathways Anthropogenic Climate Change Hazards RISK Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance Exposure EMISSIONS and Land-use Change (IPCC-COP20)

6 I. Why low carbon development, society 1.1. Causes and consequences of human emissions Key Messages: Human influence on the climate system is clear The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future The window for action is rapidly closing: 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2 C goal already used IPCC AR5 SynthesisReport AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

7 1.1.HUMAN INFLUENCE: Extremely likely that human influence has beenthe dominant cause of warming since the mid-20 th century IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM

8 1.1.Connect Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) and Carbon Emissions to Climate change The increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is from human activities that emit carbon dioxide. Burning fuel (wood, gas, coal) With more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the atmosphere is getting hotter and that is changing the climate. To mitigate (reduce the risk), carbon emissions need to be reduced to stop the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

9 RISKS: Depend on cumulative C02 emissions AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 SynthesisReport

10 I. Why low carbon society 1.2. The window for action is rapidly closing Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO2 Amount Used : 1900 GtCO2 Amount Remaining: 1000 GtCO2 AR5 WGI SPM 1 GtCO2 = g CO2 (IPCC-COP20)

11 HUMAN INFLUENCE: Anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since the preindustrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane andnitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. GHG Emissions [GtCO2 eq/yr] IPCC AR5 SynthesisReport AR5 WGIII SPM

12 HUMAN INFLUENCE: Sources of Emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% Energy Sector 24% Agriculture, forests and other land uses 21% Industry 14% Transport 6.4% Building Sector 2010 GHG emissions AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 SynthesisReport

13 World Greenhouse Gas Emissions 14% F Gas 8% 1% 18% N 2 O CH 4 CO 2 From LUCF CO 2 From Combustion 59% LUCF: Land-Use Change and Forestry

14 Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)

15 All sectors & regions have the potential to contribute Note: estimates don t include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes

16 I. Why low carbon society I.3. Greenhouse gases emission and mitigation in Vietnam A LOW CARBON SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 2030 IN VIETNAM

17 II. Climate change mitigation measures GHG Mitigation Goals Limit global mean temperature increase less 2 C GHG reduction 40-70% less than 2010 Balanced CCM and economic development, making CCM More useful Reasonable share of country emission reductions relative to the global targets Substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges from GHG reduction

18 How? Why? What can we do? We can t just stop emitting CO 2 immediately We actually need to bring emissions significantly lower than current levels in order to stabilize concentrations of CO 2. Towards Stabilizing CO 2

19 II. Climate change mitigation measures REDD-Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation 4

20 RCC for Sustainable Development Governance, Policies on socioeconomic pathways, Response to CC Human resource development National, regional, international cooperation CCM for sustainable development Science, technologies, climate innovation Social network and power (innovation, indigenous knowledge.) Economic, financial measures

21 II. Climate change mitigation measures 2.1.Limiting Temperature Increase to2 C Measures (technological, economic, social, and institutional ) exist to limit likely warming to 2 Combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in GHG emissions can limit CC risks Ambitious mitigation is affordable: economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% Estimated costs do not account for the benefits of reduced climate change.

22 2.3. MitigationMeasures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy Many of these technologies exist today Nearly a quadrupling of zero- and low-carbon energy supply from renewable energy by 2050 Improved carbon sinks Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

23 II. Climate change mitigation measures 2.2.CC mitigation activities Each country to develop - National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs); - Intended National determined Contribution (INDC) Low carbon society Integration of CCM into sustainable development

24 II. Climate change mitigation measures 2.3.Ways to Reduce CO 2 Emissions Reduce demand for energy-intensive goods & services Improve the efficiency of energy use (at all stages) Expand use of low-and zero-carbon energy sources Capture and sequester CO 2 directly from ambient air All of these options are currently available (to varying degrees)

25 II. Climate change mitigation measures 2.4.Technical Options Available INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY Building design and systems Industrial processes Transportation systems Electric power systems LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Renewables: wind, hydro, geothermal, solar Nuclear power Coal and gas with CCS Natural gas DECARBONIZED FUELS Biofuels (based on LCA emissions) Hydrogen: from renewables, nuclear, natural gas and coal w/ccs Synthetic fuels from coal, natural gas, biomass, oil sands w/ccs REPLACE FUELS w/ LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Grid-charged batteries for ground transportation Heat pumps for building furnaces and boilers

26 II. Climate change mitigation measures 2.5.Goal of GEF CC Mitigation is to support countries toward a low-carbon development path Promote low-carbon technologies Promote energy efficiency Promote renewable energy Low-carbon urban transport Sustainable management land-use change, & forestry (LULUCF) Enabling Activities & Capacity Building

27 Mitigation Strategies No #1: Transportation Efficiency A car that gets 30 mpg releases 1 ton of carbon into the air for every 10,000 miles of driving Fuel efficient cars get more miles per gallon (mpg) Increasing the fuel efficiency of cars will reduce the amount of CO 2 emitted into the atmosphere

28 Mitigation Strategy #2: Transport Conservation With more cars on the road, the amount of CO 2 emitted steadily increases. Reducing the time and number of cars on the road (Expby compact city ) will reduce emissions. Increasing the use of public transportation would reduce the amount of individual driving time.

29 Mitigation Strategy #3: Building Efficiency Providing electricity, transportation, and heat for buildings produces high levels of CO 2 emission. Reducing heating and energy use would reduce the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere. Insulating buildings, using alternative energy sources, and solar water heating are ways to reduce emissions.

30 Mitigation Strategy #4: Efficient Electricity Production 25% of the world s carbon emissions come from the production of electricity at coal plants. Since nearly 50% of electricity comes from coal combustion, improving coal plant efficiency will significantly reduce carbon emission. To do this requires alternative ways of using coal to produce electricity.

31 III. Building LCS for climate change mitigation (CCM) III.1. Low carbon (LC) society building for CCM SNRU Nature harmonious society Green technology Low carbon technology/j CM Low carbon environment Green life Green growth Low carbon production Low carbon activities Low carbon life Low waste life SNRU- sustainable natural resource use JCM- Joint credit mechanism CC and LC innovation based Low carbon society scenarios Climate change mitigation High efficiency of SNRU Low waste society Energy use change based on LC criteria Sustainable and resilientecosystem/soci ety

32 Low Carbon Society: Low carbon society: Sustainably developed or developing society on the basic close, reasonable and harmonious coordination of economic and social development and environment protection, reduction of GHG. Concepts of LCS: aiming at sustainable development and CC mitigation through low carbon activities, development, consumption life and culture; high level of energy efficiency and use lowcarbon energy sources and production technologies,

33 III. Building LCS for climate change mitigation (CCM) III.1. Low carbon (LC) society building for CCM LCS framework: based on the innovative governance and policies SRU Nature harmonious society Green technology Low carbon technology Low carbon environment Green life Clean production Low carbon production Low carbon activities Low carbon life Low waste life SRU based Low carbon society scenarios Climate change mitigation High efficiency of SRU Low waste society Energy change based LC energy Sustainable and resilientecosystem

34 III. Building LCS for climate change mitigation (CCM) III.2. Low carbon (LC) society building for CCM: JCM implementing Workshop discussions: Challenges

35 III. Building LCS for climate change mitigation (CCM) III.2. Low carbon (LC) society building for CCM: JCM implementing Workshop discussions: Solutions- Future steps Low carbon development and JMC implementing Capacity building

36 3.3.LCS building: LCS Scienarios Perception CHR Speak out PBDS Believe Desire Low carbon society Policy, strategy Balanced benefit based Innovation promotion based Support Transferring PBDS into: Low carbon activities Social power and energy

37 3.3. LCS building -Change of LCSA through PBDS P = Perception of necessity and benefits (global, society s, person s) of LCS. P B D S B = Believe in LCS, guarantee of LCS s benefits, feasibility and reality. D = Desire to contribute to building up low carbon scenarios, society. S = Support low carbon activities: policies, action plan, new technology development, climate innovation (CI), energy innovation (EI), resource innovation (RI), low carbon innovation (LCI) = CERLI, sustainable ecosystem innovation.

38 3.3. LCS building -Change of LCSA through PBDS Transfer PBDS into LCA, CERIL through: I) Policies and action plan in: - Guarantee of stakeholder s benefit of LCS; - Financial investment in LCA, CERLI, new technology for LCS; - Financial and social mechanism for LCA, CERLI, New Energy Production, Sustainable use of resource (NEPS), based on the model of feed in tariff (as example). 38

39 3.3. LCS building -Change of LCSA through PBDS Transfer PBDS into LCA, CERLI through: II) Transfer, incubation, start up, spin off LCA, CERLI, new technology for LCS: 2.1. Seed funding for startup, spin off commercializing 2.2. Space in hightech parks, universities, academic institutions 2.3. Consulting for start up, spin off,... LCIC (Low Carbon Innovation Center), CIC (Climate Innovation Center) 2.4. Searching funds 2.5. Doing low carbon innovation 39

40 3.3. LCS building -Change of LCSA through PBDS Transfer PBDS into LCA, CERLI through: III) LCA, CERLI implementing: 3.1. Grass low carbon innovation (LCI) Vietnam: bottom up Social power, energy Low carbon innovations Business invest in commercializing, implementing LCI Creating policies, mechanism, environment and support system promoting, maintaining: Academic institutions to create, make incubation, start up, spin off LCA, CERLI 40

41 Strategic Missions to Green IV. Resilience-Sustainable living for LCS Growth Green livelihood (UNEP) Work Manufacturing Agriculture Research and develop Administrative operation Contribute Conserve, restore environment quality Protect ecosystem and biodiversity Reduce assumption of energy and materials, water Reduce emission of Carbon for economics Service Reduce and avoid all of waste, pollution

42 IV. Resilience-Sustainable living for LCS Sustainable livelihood: maintaining improving nature-harmony society and CCM

43 IV. Resilience-Sustainable living for LCS Diverse Sustainable Livelihoods (SL) Japan: Satoyama, Satoumi Models China: Harmonious Society Development, eco-community, Indonesia: community-based conservation Vietnam: Traditional VAC, Modern VAC Climate smart agriculture: Sustainable agriculture with improved production, clean food production, reduced CC and ecological change and enhanced resilience. VAC= Garden + Aquaculture pond+ Breeding facility (for Livestock)

44 IV. Resilience-Sustainable living for LCS Sustainable Livelihood is Improving Social and nature Resilience and LCS Social infrastructure Living standards Knowledge and skills Increase Adaptive Capacity and Disaster Mitigation CSV: climate smart village Social Resilience (- Social infrastructure -Living Standard - Knowledge and Skills -Capacity Building) LCS, CSV improving Increasing Capability for Disaster and CC Mitigation Sustainable Technical Infrastructure Natural Resilience (Sustainable Ecosystems)

45 V. LCS building-the CASE OF VIETNAM

46 5.1 Solutions for response to climate change Evolution of climate change policies in Viet Nam

47 5.2. SCENARIOS AND ACTIONS TOWARD LCS IN VN BEYOND 2050 Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU): Vietnam does not take any measures to control and reduce emission, just let the country economic develop as present trend. Emission Control Scenario (EC): Vietnam takes a series of policies to control the CO 2 emission, improve living standards but does not introduce large scales of expensive energy technology. Emission Abatement scenario (AE): Vietnam will develop feasible policies to overcome challenges and shift Vietnam s society into a LCS.

48 Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) From 2013, Vietnam will be energyimported country (25-27% in 2020 and 57-62% by 2050). lack of electricity supply; power cuts all activities reach deadlock

49 Emission Control Scenario (EC) Strengthen control. No expensive energy technology. Appear: - More environmental polices; - More power cuts

50 Emission Abatement scenario (AE) Efficiency Law enforcement + Renewable Energy Technology incentive policies LC lifestyle LC consumption LC production Natural conservation

51 GHG emission (MtCO 2 eq) Emission Scenarios BaU EC AE GHG emission (MtCO 2 eq) BaU EC AE Energy Agricultur e Forestry

52 Environmental Scenarios 120 Environmental Indexes (%) BaU 2050BaU 2030 EC 2050EC 2030AE 2050AE Forest coverage (%) Proportion of rural population with access to safe drinking water (%) Rural households with sanitary Patrines (%) Urban inhabitants supplied with clean water Protected land, where biodiversity is preserved (%)

53 Electric vehicle will replace fuel motors? Hanoi will be green as in the spatial architecture models?

54 People living standard scenarios Social indexes (%) BaU 2050 BaU 2030EC 2050EC 2030AE 2050AE Poverty rate (%) Ratio of students per 100 inhabitants (%) Ratio of beneficiaries of health insurance (%) Ratio of beneficiaries of social insurance (%) Ratio of beneficiaries of unemployment insurance (%) Ratio of communes achieving new countryside norms (%) Net enrolment rate in lower secondary education (%)

55 Efficiency Green Economy

56 Action toward LCS in Vietnam beyond 2050 Green Production Natural Conservation LCS in Vietnam Mitigating emissions and increasing renewable energy use Greening lifestyle and sustainable consumption

57 5.3. Recommendation on management milestones toward LCS in 2050 in Vietnam for energy and environmental natural resource management sectors Period Present Key policies need to be developed and operated Energy Sector Investigation of current status of the national energy sources, use and supply Assessment of National Renewable Energy Resources Potentials Incentive Program for saving energy innovations Develop a long term (to 2030 and vision to 2050) master plan of national energy development, focusing on sources, use, demands and supply system Env. and NR Management Sector Reform and strictly enforce the Law on Environment Investigation of current status of the national natural resources exploitation and management Develop a long term (to 2030 and vision to 2050) master plan of national natural resources sustainable use for integrating into socioeconomic development

58 Develop National Action Plan on Efficiency Energy - Develop National Action Plan on Efficiency Renewable Energy Exploitation - Develop long term regional/provincial plans of effective energy resources exploitation and use Develop funds and incentive policy for low carbon emission production/low carbon economics and trading - Develop a long term (to 2030 and vision to 2050) regional/provincial plans of national natural resources sustainable use for integrating into socio-economic development - Develop National Action Plan on integrating master and regional natural resources sustainable use plans into socio-economic development plans - Develop natural resources sustainable use models for various regions/provinces to support green development - Incentive policy for developing low-carbon technology Trading low-carbon products and energy - Investigation on new natural energy resources Stimulate green lifestyles and promote sustainable consumption to support the development of sustainable consumption patterns.

59 5.4. LC innovation based on social power and energy A. Using global warming (GW) as energy: GW High temperature Green house effect Heating water Keeping heat of water by 2 layers of glass Two layer glass tank warming water (Ngo Quoc Tuan, Da Mai Comm., Bac Giang Prov.) 59

60 5.4. LC innovation based on social power and energy B. Transfering agriculture waste into gas: Agriculture CO 2 emission (43.1% of total emission in Vietnam) GW B.1. Vegetable waste Burned in low O 2 tank Reduce CO 2 Gas Used as energy with 10 times more efficiency than burning waste 60

61 5.4. LC innovation based on social power and energy B. Transfering agriculture waste into gas: B.2. Other organic waste (manure, sewage,...) Biotechnology (breakdown of organic matter in the absence of oxygene) biogas cellars built Biogas (~510,952 carbon certificates) Decreasing 5 tons CO 2 / household / year 61

62 4.2. Transfer PBDS into LCA, CERIL through: Top down for LCI, CERIL: Government Policies, strategies for promoting LCI, CERIL, strengthening social power, energy Academic institution Find out, synthesize and make models from people s innovations, initiative activities Business Consulting, spining off, starting up Community Realizing LCI, CERLI Media: communicating all together and more 62

63 5.4. LC innovation based on social power and energy Remarks: LCS is built in two phases (I, II) by four players (A, B, C, D, M) and combination of bottom up and top down: A Top down: government - policies, strategies, institutional framework I) Changing LC attitude through PBDS (M) II) Transferring PBDS into LC action, CERLI, LC innovation Bottom up: social power + energy realizing (B+M) LCS built by: B: person, community C: academic institution D: business sector,... M: media 63

64 5.5 Lessons learned CC caused mainly by human GHG emission, only human being can stop the global warming through smart and benefit balanced measures; Institutional and policy innovations should be in the First priority and in advance, creating the platform, framework, directions, promotion, finding resources for proposing and using the necessary measures aiming at CCM; Promoting LC innovation (sustainable natural resource use, energy innovation,...; law and policy based low carbon energy development); LCS model, Implementing sustainable natural resource use (Satoyama, Satoumi,... Models); Energy innovation realization: solar energy, bio fuel, geothermal energy. Social power and innovation, indigenous knowledge are very important for CCM in developing countries based on the turning the CC challenges into opportunities of GHG reduction and development. Science/technology- media collaboration is important for CCM 64

65 5. Proposals for future cooperation Science/technology- media collaboration in CC combating and CCM through promoting: Institutional and policy innovation: promoting LC innovation (sustainable natural resource use, energy innovation,...; law and policy based low carbon energy development); LCS model, overcoming challenges mentioned by presenters and participants. Implementing sustainable natural resource use (Satoyama, Satomi,... models). Energy innovation realization: solar energy, bio fuel, geothermal energy. And Others- to be added 65

66 6. Acknowledgment WMO, VTV All participants And Others For creating the opportunity to share the building LCS for CCm and SD

67 Thank you for: Collaboration; Sharing; Trusting.