Energy Outlook for ASEAN+3

Transcription

1 The 15 th ASEAN+3 Energy Security Forum March, 218 Energy Outlook for ASEAN+3 Ryo Eto The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ)

2 Contents Introduction Modeling framework, Major assumptions TPES, FEC and Power Generation Mix in Reference Scenario Energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction Conclusion 2

3 Introduction This energy outlook shows and draws energy demand situations in ASEAN8+3 between 216 and 25. ASEAN8+3 countries would play more important roles for the world economy and the environmental issues for the period. It would be important to tackle both energy security issues with regard to high dependence on fossil fuels and reducing CO 2 with improving our living standards further. 3

4 Modelling framework Macroeconomic model Calculate GDP-related indices, price indices, activity indices including material production, etc. consistently. Technology assessment model Use a bottom-up approach to calculate future efficiencies of appliances, vehicles, etc. Optimal power generation planning model Calculate the cost-optimal power generation mix to meet the projected future electricity demand. Major assumptions GDP, population, energy prices, exchange rates, international trade, etc. Energy supply-demand model Econometric model to project future energy supply and demand by regression analysis of historical trends based on the energy balance tables data of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This model calculates energy demand, supply and transformation as well as related indices including CO 2 emissions, CO 2 intensities and energy self sufficiency ratios. Experts opinions World trade model Use the linear programming (LP) method to calculate the future international trade flows of crude oil, petroleum products, etc. Computable general equilibrium model Estimate the economic impacts induced by the changes in energy supply and demand, based on input-output data. Climate change model Calculate future GHG concentration in the atmosphere, temperature rise, damage caused by climate change, etc. 4

5 Assumptions: Population and GDP Total population in ASEAN+3 : 2.2 bil. (215) 2.3 bil. (25) Total real GDP in ASEAN+3 : 18.7 tril. (215) 61.7 tril. (25) (21 US$) AAGR of Population AAGR of Real GDP -1.%.% 1.% 2.% 3.%.% 5.% 1.% 15.% Brunei Brunei China China Indonesia Indonesia Japan Korea Japan Korea Malaysia Malaysia Myanmar Myanmar Philippines Philippines Singapore Singapore Thailand Thailand Vietnam Vietnam ASEAN8+3 ASEAN8+3 (Source: UN, World Bank, IEEJ) 5 Cambodia and Lao are not included in ASEAN+3

6 Assumptions: Primary Energy prices 15 1 $/bbl Crude oil $/MBtu Japan Europe (UK) United States Natural gas $/t Steam coal * Historical prices are nominal price. Assumed future prices are real price in $216. CIF import prices for Japan - In the Reference Scenario, crude oil prices rise gradually again to $1/bbl by 23 due to robust demand growth in non-oecd countries, emerging geopolitical risks and financial factors, oil supply constraints reflecting rising depletion rates for oil fields, etc. LNG prices will rise accordingly, with the existing price disparity shrinking due to expanding interregional trades. 6 1, $/toe Crude oil Natural gas Steam coal

7 Carbon free technology Energy efficiency Scenarios <Energy Model Analysis> #Reference Scenario Reflects past trends with current energy and environment policies. Does not reflect any aggressive policies for low-carbon measures. #Advanced Technologies Scenario Assumes the introduction of powerful policies to enhance energy security and address climate change issues. It promotes utmost penetration of low-carbon technologies. Examples for Technology Vehicle technology (ZEV *1 sales share) Coal-fired power generation (CCT *2 share in newly installed capacity) Installed capacity Solar PV Wind Nuclear Thermal power generation with CCS (Only countries and regions with CO 2 storage potential excluding aquifers) Reference 9% in 23 2% in 25 3% in 23 9% in 25 (215 to 25).2 to 1.5 TW.4 to 1.9 TW.4 to.6 TW none Advanced Technologies 21% 43% 7% 1% (25) 2.5 TW 3. TW 1. TW Newly installed after 23 *1 ZEV: battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell battery vehicles *2 CCT: ultra super critical, advanced-usc and integrated coal gasification combined cycle 7

8 IEEJ Outlook 218 IEEJ 217 Advanced Technologies Scenario assumptions In Advanced Technologies Scenario, each country further enhances policies on energy security and address climate change. Technology developments and international technology transfers are promoted to further expand the penetration of innovative technologies. Introducing and enhancing environmental regulations and national targets Environment tax, emissions trading, RPS, subsidy, FIT, efficiency standards, automobile fuel efficiency standard, low carbon fuel standard, energy efficiency labeling, national targets, etc. Promoting technology development and international technology cooperation R&D investment expansion, international cooperation on energy efficient technology (steelmaking, cement and other areas), support for establishing energy efficiency standards, etc. Demand side technologies Industry Under sectoral and other approaches, best available technologies on industrial processes (for steelmaking, cement, paper-pulp and oil refining) will be deployed globally Transport Clean energy vehicles (highly fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles) will diffuse further. Buildings Efficient electric appliances (refrigerators, TVs, etc.), highly efficient water-heating systems (heat pumps, etc.), efficient air conditioning systems and efficient lighting will diffuse further, with heat insulation enhanced. Supply side technologies Renewable energies Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, CSP (concentrated solar power) generation, biomass-fired power generation and biofuel will penetrate further. Nuclear Nuclear power plant construction will be accelerated with capacity factor improved. Highly efficient fossil fuel-fired power generation technologies Coal-fired power plants (SC,USC, A-USC, IGCC) and natural gas fired more advanced combined cycle (MACC) plants will penetrate further. Technologies for next-generation transmission and distribution networks Lower loss type of transformation and voltage regulator will penerate further Carbon capture and storage *SC: Super Critical, USC: Ultra Super Critical, A-USC: Advanced Ultra Super Critical 8

9 Primary energy demand by region Under the steady economic growth assumption, ASEAN8+3 countries energy consumption increases 45% from 215 to 25 (4.3Btoe 6.2Btoe) The share in the world stays at 31% (World : 13.6Btoe 19.8Btoe) The increment from ASEAN8+3 accounts for 31%. Reference Scenario 8, ASEAN8+3 Other Asia Other Asia CAGR (215-25) 1,97 2.9% 6, North America Latin America Middle East ASEANplus3 Africa 847 1, % 2.1% 4, OECD Europe Non-OECD Europe Africa Middle East Latin America % 1.4% Oceania Other Asia 345.8% 2, ASEANplus3 4.1% OECD Europe % North America (Source: IEEJ, IEA) % Cambodia and Lao are not included in ASEAN+3 9

10 Primary energy demand by country in ASEAN8+3 Reference Scenario China remains the largest energy consumer, but the share will decrease. Demand of Japan and Korea will decline. Most of ASEAN countries will keep the robust growth of energy demand. AAGR of Primary energy demand 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Myanmar Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Singapore Korea Japan China China Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Malaysia Myanmar Singapore.9% 1.7% 1.8%.8% 2.9% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 1, Brunei Korea -.1% 1.2% (Source: IEEJ, IEA) Japan -.3% 1

11 Primary energy demand of ASEAN8+3 by source Reference Scenario Coal has been the dominant energy source mainly used for coal-fired power generation and industrial usage, while the share decreases. Oil keeps the second most because of the increase in transport sector. Natural gas has been the third most, shows the fastest growth by 25. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural gas CAGR (215-25) 1.8% 1.1% 3.9% 2.6% 1, Oil % Coal (Source: IEEJ, IEA) 224.3% 11

12 Final energy demand of ASEAN8+3 by sector Industry continues to be the largest energy consumer, while the share drops. Reference Scenario Demand in Residential and Commercial accounts for 42% of the total increment, derived from the substantial growth of GDP per capita. Transport increases most rapidly at AAGR of 1.5%, accounts for 31% of of the total increment. 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Non-energy use Buildings, etc. Non-energy use 163 CAGR (215-25) 1.3% 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Transport Industry Buildings, etc. Transport % 1.5% Industry 161.4% (Source: IEEJ, IEA) 12

13 Power generation mix of ASEAN8+3 Reference Scenario The share of coal remains the largest and accounts for 51% of the increment. Natural gas replaces hydro in second largest share, supported by high efficiency and less CO 2 emissions than coal. The share of Nuclear reaches to 9%. And renewables will also increase rapidly. 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, TWh Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil TWh Other renewables Hydro Nuclear CAGR (215-25) 1, % 1.1% 3.9% 6, Coal Natural gas 1, % 4, 2, Oil Coal % 1.3% 2,732 (Source: IEEJ, IEA) 13

14 Fossil fuel demand of ASEAN8+3 (Reference & Adv. Tech.) Coal : China continue to be the dominant. ASEAN increases the presence. Large reduction potential in power generation. Oil : Steady growth in most of ASEAN8+3 except Japan, Korea and Singapore. Most of the saving potential comes from the transport sector. Natural gas : Rapid growth in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam. Growth could be decelerated by energy saving and increase of renewable and nuclear. Coal Oil Natural gas 3, 1,2 1,6 Myanmar 2,5 1,4 1, Vietnam 2, Thailand 1,2 8 Philippines 1, 1,5 Malaysia 6 8 Indonesia 1, 6 4 Brunei Singapore Korea 2 Japan REF ATS REF ATS China REF ATS (Source: IEEJ, IEA) 14

15 Energy saving and CO 2 emissions (Reference & Adv. Tech.) Energy-related CO 2 emissions increases from 12.4 Gt-CO 2 in 215 to 15.6 Gt- CO 2 in 25 (keeping 35% in the world) In the Advanced Technologies scenario, 11% of the energy demand can be saved from the Reference scenario. And with the accelerated growth of nuclear and renewable power generation, CO 2 emissions drops 34%. Primary energy demand CO 2 Emission 7, GtCO 2 2 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -12% Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal China Japan Korea ASEAN8 Reference Advanced Technologies REF ATS (Source: IEEJ, IEA) (Source: IEEJ, IEA) 15

16 Conclusion Energy demand in ASEAN8+3 is estimated to keep the largest share in the major regions around the world. In terms of both TPES and Power generation, Coal seems stay dominant energy source dropping its share. In the FEC by sector, Residential and Commercial, Transport will play more important role than past decades. To deal with climate change issues, ASEAN8+3 countries are recommended to accelerate policies to reduce the fossil fuel consumption with various methods such as energy conservation, more efficient use of fossil fuels, fuel switching, nuclear, wind, solar, etc. In order to address and solve the energy-related issues above, ASEAN8+3 countries could cooperate together with utilizing many kinds of our natural and human resources efficiently and effectively. 16

17 Thank you.