Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE

Transcription

1 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE ITL SEPTEMBER, 2014

2 PROJECT INFORMATION Title: Intelligent Transport Systems in South East Europe Acronym: SEE-ITS EoI Reference number: SEE/D/0099/3.2/X Programme: South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Starting date: September 28 th, 2012 Duration: 24 months Web site: PROJECT PARTNERS No Name Short name Country LP Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport CERTH-HIT Greece ERDF PP1 Patras Municipal Enterprise for Planning and Development S.A. ADEP S.A. Greece ERDF PP2 AustriaTech - Federal Agency for Technological Measures Ltd ATE Austria ERDF PP3 Hungarian Transport Administration HTA Hungary ERDF PP4 Bulgarian Association Intelligent Transport Systems ITS Bulgaria Bulgaria ERDF PP5 Intelligent Transport Systems Romania ITS Romania Romania ERDF PP6 University of Ljubljana UL Slovenia ERDF PP7 Institute for Transport and Logistics Foundation EU ASP1 Hellenic Intelligent Transport Systems ITS HELLAS Greece EU ASP2 ITS Hungary Association ITS Hungary Hungary 20% ASP1 Italian ITS Association TTS Italia Italy 10% PP1 Albanian Association of Urban Transport SHKTQ Albania 10% PP2 Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, University of Zagreb ITL FPZ Italy Croatia Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 1

3 DOCUMENT PROFILE Document status: Final version Deliverable code: D6.1.0 Deliverable title: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE Work Package: 6 Preparation date: 30/09/2014 Submission date: 31/03/2015 Total pages: 69 Dissemination level: Public Author: Jonathan Rossetti, Stefano Dondi Contributors: SEE-ITS project partners Abstract: The study is focused on the impacts detected and measured through the implementation of SEE-ITS Demonstration Activities in each partner country. Impacts and the consequent benefits are here assessed using an Area Type Evaluation. The process of scalability is applied from the pilot level to the local (if different), and to the regional and national territorial dimension. The document highlights the relevant impacts of ITS in case of a wide and interoperable application to large territorial area. Moreover, the transfer of the impacts deriving from an ITS tested in another country has been considered for each of the partner countries. An Area Type Evaluation has been performed also in this case and the results show how each ITS would have impact on different territorial dimensions. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 2

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The study analyses, collects and elaborates the social, environmental and economic impacts detected by each partner through the implementation of SEE-ITS demonstration activities. In order to have a clear and wide view of the concrete and possible impacts of such applications, two main analysis have been conducted: an Area Type Evaluation Transfer of impacts The Area Type Evaluation aims to assess the social, economic and environmental impacts of an ITS on different territorial level: pilot and/or local level, regional and national level. It shows how the benefits tested and detected during demonstration activities would be absolutely relevant in case of a large deployment of ITS. Thousands of travelling hours would be avoided using the already available (from a technological point of view) systems for traffic management, for example. The natural consequence would be a reduction of accidents, of social costs, and an increase of safety levels. But also the implementation of a Web Application for cyclists and pedestrians would impact not only on these categories, but on also on the whole Modal Share of a city or region, reducing the use of private cars, and thus of the emissions and fuel consumption. An impact or benefit can be (or appear) as limited if considered as one single and punctual application, but is relevant and surprising if it assesses on city, regional or national level. The Area Type Evaluation performed by each partner and demo-leader, in each respective country underline and highlights the importance and the need of an increasingly widespread of ITS applications. Clearly, the assessment of impacts cannot be separated from an economic assessment of the benefits and of the costs of the implemented ITS but this is objective of the next project steps and analysis. Indeed, a CBA Cost Benefits Analysis will be conducted in the next project work-package. In the second step of this study, the impacts of an ITS piloted within the SEE-ITS project have been transferred in the other SEE-ITS partners countries in order to assess the effects and the benefits also in other countries, and therefore in other contexts and situations. This has allowed to simulate a crossing test and check of the six ITS piloted within project Demo- Activities, multiplying analysis and elaborations. Results shows has some benefits would be also greater than in the situations directly tested by SEE-ITS Demo Activities, due to the fact that some countries have characteristics and parameters more relevant than others. The reduction of vehicle-km on Interurban Networks for example, is greater in Italy and in Greece than in Slovenia (due to a different territorial dimension), but is also greater than in Romania or Bulgaria due to a different coverage and length of the interurban network. The transfer of impacts helps the understanding of which ITS is more specific and consistent for the different countries. Also for the transferred impacts an Area Type Evaluation have been realized, in order to consider and assess benefits on different territorial levels. Moreover, a Cost Benefits Analysis will be conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility of the implementation of the ITS tested in all the SEE-ITS countries. It has to be mention that, excluding the impacts detected during Demonstrations activities, the basis of all the elaborations are a set of Statistical Data collected by each partner at Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 3

5 national level and provided by former studies and projects, or by national authorities for statistics. All the Statistical Datasets are provided in the Annexes. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 4

6 CONTENTS 1. Introduction Purpose and Scope of this Report Methodology Organization of this Report Project Background Pilot-Project Summary Thessaloniki Pilot-site: advanced travel information services Patras Pilot-site: travellers information Vienna Pilot-site: cooperative traffic management Timisoara and Danube Area Pilot-site: ITS deployment for road networks Hungary Pilot-site: intermodal travel planning services Emilia Romagna Pilot-site: dangerous goods monitoring Sofia Pilot-site: optimal use of traffic and travel data Categories of ITS implemented within SEE-ITS demonstrations Statistical Datasets Introduction Partners Involved Statistical Datasets Expected Impacts Demo-Sites Impacts Demo-Sites Impacts relation Impacts assessment Territorial impacts Area Type Evaluation Thessaloniki and Patras Pilot-site Vienna Pilot-site Timisoara and Danube area Pilot-site Budapest Pilot-site Emilia Romagna Pilot-site Sofia Pilot-site Transfer of Impacts Evaluation Impacts Transferability Impact assessment in partner countries of other pilot projects Conclusions 47 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 5

7 8. References 49 Annexes 51 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 6

8 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Indicative example of final impacts 15 Table 2: Responsible partners per country 17 Table 3: Statistical datasets - EXAMPLE 19 Table 4: Statistical datasets 20 Table 5: Benefits/Impacts per road type 22 Table 6: Benefits/Impacts per vehicle type 22 Table 7: Other Benefits/Impacts 22 Table 8: Impacts detected for each DEMO 22 Table 9: Demo-activity Impacts (Thessaloniki Patras) 24 Table 10: Area Type Evaluation (Greece) 29 Table 11: Demo-activity Impacts (Vienna) 30 Table 12: Area Type Evaluation (Austria) 30 Table 13: Demo-activity Impacts (Timisoara and Danube area) 31 Table 14: Area Type of Evaluation (Romania) 32 Table 15: Demo-activity Impacts (Budapest pilot-site) 33 Table 16: Area Type of Evaluation (Hungary) 33 Table 17: Demo-activity Impacts (Emilia Romagna Pilot-site) 34 Table 18: Area Type Evaluation (Italy) 35 Table 19: Demo-activity Impacts (Sofia Pilot-site) 37 Table 20: Area Type Evaluation (Bulgaria) 38 Table 21: Validation of impacts per country 39 Table 22: Share per area (local, regional, national) and per road type in total road transport VKM 53 Table 23: Annual fuel consumption per area and road type 54 Table 24: CO 2 emissions per area and road type 54 Table 25: Population allocation per area of interest 54 Table 26: Annual number of accidents per road type 55 Table 27: Annual number of accidents in motorways per area 55 Table 28: Number of DG accidents in motorway level, per area 56 Table 29: Number of Passenger Vehicles per area of interest 56 Table 30: Number of Trucks per area of interest 56 Table 31: Total number of vehicles per area of interest 56 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 7

9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Drivers willing to use the online service for route planning 25 Figure 2: Frequency of VMS information observation 25 Figure 3: Average Speed and CO2 emissions. Source: (Barth & Boriboonsomsin, 2009) 26 Figure 4: Degree of influence 27 Figure 5: Usefulness of Real-Time Travel Time Information 28 Figure 6: Reliability of VMSs and SEE-ITS platform operation 28 Figure 7: Correlation of the willingness to use the online service for route planning with drivers taking into account the information provided 29 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 8

10 ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMINOLOGY RER BKK GTFS HTA MÁV TUK (Tömegközlekedési Útvonaltervez - Kerékpárosoknak) TUKMobile TUKAdmin VOLÁN - Emilia Romagna Region - Centre for Budapest Transport Co. - General Transit Feed Specification - Hungarian Transport Administration (KKK in Hungary) - Hungarian State Railways Co. - Public Transport Route Planner for Cyclists - Android mobile phone application - Operator desktop program to load the updated GTFS databases - Hungary's major bus service provider Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 9

11 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Purpose and Scope of this Report In the present activity the impact assessment of the ITS applications, conducted in task 5.3, will be transferred to other regions and scaled up at larger geographic areas. Thus, the activity explores the main options for achieving the objectives of the ITS services and analyses their likely impacts in the economic, environmental and social fields. The scope of this task is to evaluate the performance of the ITS piloted services at network level aiming at quantifying the benefits of the system when applied to larger areas. At the same time, the benefits of each individual ITS service will be transferred to each Demo activities. The network under study can be comprised of city streets and/or interurban roads, depending on the characteristics of the service to be examined, while the wider area extension can be local, regional or national. The results of this activity will provide input to activity 6.2 in which the advantages and disadvantages of each ITS system will be outlined and possible synergies and trade-offs will be examined. The examination of synergies will follow an area type evaluation, namely for each type of area level (local, regional, nationally) all possible interrelationships will be explored and analysed, setting the basis for further more technical procedural integration. Besides the importance of understanding the impacts of the ITS at network level, the results of this task are going to provide also inputs to the Cost Benefit Analyses, to be elaborated under WP Methodology The proposed methodology includes the scaling up of the impacts of the systems demonstrated under WP5 from local to regional and national levels. The scaling up process will follow the assessment methodology developed in the framework of the Compass4D project 1. More specifically the proposed statistical extrapolation/scaling up methodology will allow the scaling up of the results obtained by the demonstrations evaluation activities under 5.3. The statistical methods, used in several previous related studies (Zwaneveld and Arem 1997, Maccubbin et al. 2008, Chiara et al. 2009, Klunder et al. 2009), are based on the measurements of real world impacts/benefits coupled with transport-related statistics for weighting these benefits and obtaining scaled up ones to regional and national levels. The methodology requires as the first step, desktop research of statistical data at city, regional and national level related to the tested scenarios. These general data are the multipliers that allow assessing impacts on different levels as to transfer impacts of Demo activities in all the other countries. The second step is to collect through the activities of WP5 (5.3) major impacts/benefits, as resulted through the application of the ITS services per Demo Site. Due to the fact that not all the impacts are suitable for all the Demonstrators, an indication of the impacts to be 1 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 10

12 considered by each partner for the national pilot project is provided in the documents. Impacts are expressed in terms of percentage of reduction or increase and are referred to the measure unit with which are expressed the statistical data. The matching of statistical data on various levels with impact rates at urban level provides an assessment of the impacts on the Environment, Society and the Economy of the city, region or country for each of the 8 countries. Finally, an analysis of the impacts that are expected at national level in case of the application of the Demo activities performed in the other considered countries is conducted. In order to apply this activity, a validation of the expected impacts at country level of other Demo activities is performed by each partner together with ITS experts. Using the same mechanism previously described (matching between statistical data and impact rates) the forecasted impacts in view of a future implementation of all the considered pilots project are provided as conclusion of this document Organization of this Report Chapter 2 provides a brief description of the Demo activities performed in each participating country and groups them for commonly analysing and assessing the suitable impacts of each. Chapter 3 includes the guidelines the methodology for developing the desk research and provides statistical data to be collected. Chapter 4 identifies the considered impacts at Environmental, Social and Economic level and defines a rate for each impact that is generally an expression of the percentage of reduction/increase (or a range of percentages) of one specific aspect/impact. Chapter 5 analyses the impact that would be transferred in the other participating countries thanks to the application of the demonstrators implemented within SEE-ITS project activities by the other partners Project Background In the first steps of the project (WP3) the existing ITS applications in South East Europe have been investigated and collected. Best practices have been analysed and selected. The gap of regional/national ITS architectures with the EU ITS framework, as set with the newly published EU ITS Action Plan, have been documented and communicated to stakeholders of the domain with the main emphasis on the added value of the integrated traffic management that may have to the efficient road network and users transport demand management, including exception situation handling. Following (WP4), the requirements for interoperable ITS along regional, national and urban Networks of SEE for integrated traffic management and ITS deployment at all levels have been prioritized. Regional and national studies for e-traffic taking into account existing and foreseen systems were conducted. The output is an EU ITS Action Plan focused on needs for transnational integration. Moreover, proposals for revising existing national ITS architectures and guidelines for developing ITS architectures have been identified. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 11

13 Within the WP5 ITS demonstrations have been implemented through feasibility studies and the development of interoperable traffic management systems and intermodal traveller information services along corridors and urban networks in several areas of the SEE region. The impacts detected, measured and calculated by Demonstration Activities are analysed and elaborated in the work package (6). Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 12

14 2. PILOT-PROJECT SUMMARY 2.1. Thessaloniki Pilot-site: advanced travel information services The demonstration activities focus on advanced traveller information services based on optimal use of real time traffic data. The outcome of the data fusion combined with the use of Dynamic traffic assignment and simulation software for the estimation of traffic condition of the road network in the near future ensure the provision of the real time information regarding the traffic condition of the road network to the end users Patras Pilot-site: travellers information The demonstration activities focus on information provision to travellers, with optimal use of road and traffic data, on main local and regional corridors and in conurbations, data security and protection, and liability issues and European ITS cooperation and coordination. The demonstration area covers urban and peri-urban corridors and the activities foresee data security, protection & liability system design as well as the supply and installation of equipment, the development of standardized interfaces to traffic management based on DATEX and the development of driver information applications for the web Vienna Pilot-site: cooperative traffic management The demonstration activities focus on cooperative traffic management. The existing systems ( are merged with complete new mobility approaches in the area of cooperative systems. The demonstration shows hand-held systems presenting traveller information based on existing state-of-the-art TIS systems with having cooperative information from the Testfield Telematics embedded. This is a big step towards Cooperative Traffic Management Solutions Timisoara and Danube Area Pilot-site: ITS deployment for road networks The Romanian Pilot is a multimodal traffic information solution/route planner that covers four different modes of transport. The pilot system brings together relevant traffic information from public transport; railway, road and inland waterway transport and provide multimodal routing strategies. The main objective of the pilot solution is to assist a traveller in selecting a multimodal trip. The system uses data from all modes of transport, combines them in order to provide accurate travel time and the best selection of modes of transport. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 13

15 The Romanian Pilot covers a trip on a selected corridor that starts in Timisoara, goes thru Bucharest and ends in Constanta 2.5. Hungary Pilot-site: intermodal travel planning services The Public Transport Route Planner for Cyclists (hereinafter as the TUK, Tömegközlekedési Útvonaltervez Kerékpárosoknak ) program package was created on commission of the Hungarian Transport Administration, within the framework of the project entitled "Southeastern European Programme SEE/D/0099/3.2/X. SEE-ITS" on a research trial (pilot) basis. It aims to demonstrate that it is possible to create such an intermodal route planning application for use with today's generally available mobile phones of average capacities that satisfies the following conditions: Capability to take the timetables of more than one mode of public transportation into account, including the transfer options among them so that in between two closely situated stops potentially bicycles should be used. Ability to perform route planning from its own database offline (without Internet access). The program is expected to make up its own data base from the GTFS format national timetables of the railway services (MÁV), Budapest public transport services (BKK) and the Danube ferries (altogether 297 MB), with the use of such effective data storage where the combined size of the database should not exceed 10 MB. The route search operation should not take longer than a few seconds even with the use of the national database. The TUK program package has been successfully completed; it meets the requirements, and thus proves that the task is technically feasible. The program package consists of the following components: TUKMobile: Android mobile phone application (main program) TUKAdmin: Operator desktop program to load the updated GTFS databases Server-side devices: Server modules running on the updating webserver Emilia Romagna Pilot-site: dangerous goods monitoring The pilot project pursues in-depth knowledge and aimed to assess the conditions of risk arising from emergencies due to accidents involving the transport of dangerous goods. The primary goal of the feasibility study is to assess the development of a centre for real-time monitoring of the transit of dangerous goods. To this end it is useful to determine points and directions of the transport network more related to the occurrence of events linked to the themes of the project. The goal is therefore to reduce the risk resulting from the movement of dangerous goods and the impact due to this particular type of roads transit transport systems using ICT tools. At its bare minimum, the pilot project will read the vehicle s number plate carrying dangerous goods and the Orange Slate with the UN number and Kemler classification. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 14

16 2.7. Sofia Pilot-site: optimal use of traffic and travel data The demonstration activities focus on the optimal use of traffic and travel data, continuity of traffic management ITS services on main local and regional corridors and in conurbations of the area and on road safety aspects related to the deployment of ITS Categories of ITS implemented within SEE-ITS demonstrations Within WP5 of SEE-ITS, the following ITS systems have been developed and evaluated. 1. Advanced Travelers Information System (ATIS) for provision of real time travel time information 2. Advanced Travelers Information System (ATIS) for provision of multiple information to drivers deriving from Cooperative ITS 3. Multimodal route planner (urban Public Transport, suburban railways, inland waterway, private transport routing) along a specific corridor 4. Multimodal route planner for cyclists (private transport routing, urban public transport) in the urban area of Budapest 5. Road Safety systems for road transport Table 1: Indicative example of final impacts Location of the pilot-project ITS Emilia Thess. Patras Vienna Romania Budapest Sofia category Romagna Cat. 1 X X Cat. 2 X Cat. 3 X Cat. 4 X Cat. 5 X X Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 15

17 3. STATISTICAL DATASETS 3.1. Introduction The chapter aims to collect statistical data available at city/local, regional and national level. Data collected within this section are useful as multipliers used for the scaling up of the environmental, social and economic impacts at the different territorial levels above mentioned. If not already available to the partners, the data has to be provided through a Desk Research on the studies, databases and project existent at country level. The list of statistical data to be collected is the following: Transport demand in the area (1) Total Vehicle-kilometres travelled per day (2) Total Vehicles-hours travelled per day (3) Modal split (4) Number of vehicles per type (5) Total fuel consumption in the same specific conditions as in the pilot (6) Total emissions in the same specific conditions as in the pilot (7) Population(8) Number of cars owned per household (9) Average number of daily trips per household (10) Spatial coverage of the public transport network (11) Total Effective Daily Vehicles (12) In table 3, the type of road (or context in with it is applied the impact) and the Measure Unit in which the data has to be provided for each statistical data are specified. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 16

18 3.2. Partners Involved The first step has been conducted by all partners involved in 6.1. Each partner collected the requested data for its own country as described in the following table: Table 2: Responsible partners per country Cities Regions Country Greece Italy Austria Bulgaria Romania Hungary Slovenia Croatia CERTH-HIT ITL Austriatech ITS Bulgaria ITS Romania KKK UL UL 3.3. Statistical Datasets In the Annexes of this report, the abovementioned statistical data are available for the following territorial levels: Cities o Thessaloniki o Sofia o Vienna o Bologna o Zagreb o Ljubljana o Bucharest & Timisoara o Patras o Budapest Regions o Region of Central Macedonia o Sofia Region o Vienna Region o Emilia-Romagna Region o Zagreb Region o Ljubljana Region o Bucharest & Timisoara o Patras Region o Budapest Region And for the correspondent European countries to which the cities and the Regions belong. See table 3 (a and b) as example. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 17

19 Data are provided as an absolute value, as percentage of the value for the city level in comparison to the Regional and National level. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 18

20 Table 3: Statistical datasets - EXAMPLE Statistical datasets (ID n ) Measure Unit Specific Field City level Regional level National level Transport demand in the area (1) daily trips (TOT) Passengers Total Vehicle-km travelled per day (2) Italian Motorways daily trips/person Persons/day V-km Passengers Passenger urban r.n. V-km highway n. Total Vehicles-hours travelled per day (3) Hours urban r.n. Hours interurban/highway n. Modal split (4) % p. using private v. road Number of vehicles per type (5) N of vehicles cars Total fuel consumption in the same specific conditions as in the pilot (6) N of vehicles Ton/year Trucks, buses, total v.; motorcycles, bicycles urban road networks Ton/year interurban/highway n. Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Diesel Petrol cars trucks buses motorcycles total Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 19

21 Table 4: Statistical datasets Statistical datasets Measure Unit Specific Field City level Regional level National level Total emissions (CO2) in the same conditions as in the pilot (7) Ton/year urban road networks Ton/year interurban/highway n. Population (8) Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year Ton/year N of inhabitants (M) cars trucks buses motorcycles total Number of cars owned per household (9) N of cars household Number of inhabitants per household (10) N of inhabitants household Spatial coverage of the public transport network (11) Km / 1000 citizens Seat-Km / 1000 citizens vehicles passengers Total Effective Daily Vehicles (12) Vehicles/day Passenger & freight Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 20

22 4. EXPECTED IMPACTS 4.1. Demo-Sites Impacts Through the activities of WP5, specifically the output 5.3, major impacts/benefits of the ITS applications have been identified. In the table (5) below the main impacts considered in WP5 activities are shown. Alternative data sources may be used when results (benefits) cannot be obtained from the pilots, including desktop research or consultation with end users of the services (drivers, fleet managers) and experts (research, technology and services providers). In order to be coherent with the multipliers identified in chapter 3 (statistical data), impacts are referred to: the type of road (urban, interurban) the type of vehicle (cars, buses, trucks, motorcycle, total) a specific Measurement unit As previously, impacts from three different points of view are considered and identified: Economic o Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled o Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled o Reduction of number of accidents o Emissions reduction o Fuel consumption reduction Environmental o Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled o Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled o Modal shift (Reduction of use of private vehicles) o Emissions reduction Social o User Satisfaction o User Acceptance o Reduction of number of accidents o Modal shift (Reduction of use of private vehicles) o Increased number of better informed travellers o Emissions reduction The following tables show the list of impacts categorized according to the type of information requested. Some impacts are indeed necessary depending on the type of road to which they are referred, others are linked to the type of vehicles, and finally some of them are not related to any of the previous categories. For what concern the impacts referred to the type of road: Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 21

23 Table 5: Benefits/Impacts per road type Impacts U.M. Type of road Urban Interurban Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled (km/day).. %.. % Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled (hours/day).. %.. % Reduction of travel times Min/trip.. %.. % Fuel consumption reduction L/day.. %.. % Emissions reduction gco 2 /day.. %.. % Considering the vehicle type instead: Table 6: Benefits/Impacts per vehicle type Impacts U.M. Type of vehicle Car Trucks Buses Motorcycle Total Fuel consumption reduction L/day.. %.. %.. %.. %.. % Emissions reduction gco 2 /day.. %.. %.. %.. %.. % Finally, the generics impacts and benefits, not referred to the type of road nor the type of vehicle: Table 7: Other Benefits/Impacts Impacts U.M. Car Increased number of better informed travellers N people... % Modal shift - Reduction of use of private vehicles %... % User Satisfaction N of people... % User Acceptance N of people... % Reduction of number of accidents N acc / trips... % 4.2. Demo-Sites Impacts relation Due to the fact that the demonstration activities focus on different ITS service (see paragraph 1), the impacts are not all suitable for each demonstrator. For this reason in the following table it is shown the relation between SEE-ITS demonstrations and expected impacts (indicators). Table 8: Impacts detected for each DEMO Benefits/Impacts DEMO-site TH / PA WI HU RO ER SO Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 22

24 Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled X X X X X Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled X X X Increased number of better informed travellers Reduction of travel times X X X X X Modal shift (reduction road transport) X X X X Reduction in fuel consumption X X X Reduction of emissions X X User Satisfaction X X X X X User Acceptance X X X X X Reduced number of accidents N DG vehicles detected X X X Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 23

25 5. IMPACTS ASSESSMENT TERRITORIAL 5.1. IMPACTS Area Type Evaluation In the following paragraphs, for each Demonstrator Activity, are presented and summarized: impacts detected, measured and calculated through the Demo activities Impacts expected at different territorial levels Local, Regional and National in case of implementation of the ITS piloted on a wider context. Impacts are calculated by an area type evaluation. Please refer to the methodology (par. 1.2) for the details on the calculation procedure Thessaloniki and Patras Pilot-site The calculation of the impact of Thessaloniki demo activity is based on the various evaluation methods that have been used and described in detail in 5.3 deliverable. The following table summarize the impact detected in the condition of the pilot. Table 9: Demo-activity Impacts (Thessaloniki Patras) PILOT SITE: Thessaloniki Patras Impact Type (in the pilot conditions) U.M. Type of road Urban Increase Vehicle-kilometres travelled (vkm/day) 0-5 % Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled (vhours) 2-5 % Fuel consumption reduction L/day 0-4 % Emissions reduction gco 2 /day 0-4 % Increased number of better informed travellers N people 74 % Modal shift % reduction people using road N vehicles 3 % User Satisfaction N of people 85 % User Acceptance N of people 59 % (a) Vehicle kilometres are expected to increase by 5% for the drivers using the service based on the results of the Field Operational Tests (FOTs). An increase was already expected since drivers in the users acceptance survey ranked the fastest route as the most important factor influencing their route choice. This trend was confirmed by the FOTs. The test drivers that were presented with the traffic condition and the predicted travel times pre-trip chose routes with lower travel times or better traffic Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 24

26 conditions, which are not necessarily the routes with the shortest distance. For each OD the distance covered by the informed and the non-informed users is calculated. (b) In the FOTs, for each OD the travel time of the informed driver has been recorded and then compared with the travel time that the non-informed driver achieved for the same OD. After multiple tests, the total travel time reduction is calculated and the average travel time for OD is extracted. Based on the results of the FOTs, it is expected that there will be a 2% reduction of the vehicle hours travelled. (c) Based on the results of the questionnaire survey, 72% of the drivers questioned are willing to use the SEE-ITS online service for planning their trip. 7% 21% Yes No 72% N/A Figure 1: Drivers willing to use the online service for route planning (d) Moreover, most drivers (91%) state that they frequently observe the information provided by the Variable Message Signs. 3% 6% 30% Rare observation Occasional observation 61% Each time observation No observation Figure 2: Frequency of VMS information observation (e) Systems belonging to the category Advanced Travellers Information Systems contribute both to changing the traffic behaviour of drivers and to the broader effort of traffic management. Specifically these systems: affect the driving pattern contribute to trip planning Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 25

27 bring positive consequences in safety support the use of public transport promote communication between users and their interaction with the transport network infrastructures help to avoid congestion and play an important role in the success of traffic measures All these parameters mentioned above, have a direct or indirect effect on fuel consumption and emissions because they improve the efficiency of the transport system. The direct effectiveness of these systems regarding fuel consumption and emissions is related to the avoidance of congestion. In a congested traffic environment the frequent accelerations and idling times are the variables that affect energy consumption and emission. Avoiding congested areas, vehicles dynamics are decreased, a fact which is depicted on the discrete driving pattern. Research suggests that 20% more fuel consumption and air pollution is caused by impeded traffic and stop-and-go traffic (Montemayor- Aldrete, et al., 2006). Examining traffic in a more macro scale level, the improved driving pattern affects the average speed, which is increased. This traffic variable is able to depict the changes in the driving pattern, because the avoidance of stop and go traffic leads in general to less vehicle dynamics and consequently to higher average speeds. The dependence of fuel consumption and emissions has been reported by (Ntziachristos and Samaras, 2000) where speed dependant emission factors are examined. Increase in the average speed leads to a reduction of fuel consumption and emissions in general. The next diagram depicts that trend and shows that for average speeds at km/h the lower emissions occur. Figure 3: Average Speed and CO2 emissions. Source: (Barth & Boriboonsomsin, 2009) The average speed approach as it is included in the EMEP/EEA methodology is adopted in the present study for the estimation of fuel consumption. Low travel speeds and stop-and-go are characteristics of adverse traffic conditions. The comparison between the mean velocities of informed and uninformed test drivers showed that informed drivers travelled overall with a mean velocity increased Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 26

28 by 4.4km/h (from 26.6km/h to 31km/h) compared to the un-informed drivers. Also, since the service provides traffic condition information and the acceptance rate was 70%, it is safe to assume that informed drivers chose routes with better traffic conditions. Using the average speed approach for a typical vehicle, fuel consumption is estimated to be reduced by approximately 4%. (f) CO 2 emissions pattern is proportional to the fuel consumption one. As a result the same, as in fuel consumption, pattern is followed by CO 2 emissions and a 4% reduction of CO 2 emissions is expected. (g) In the users questionnaire survey, participants were asked if they would take into account for their trip planning the information presented in the online service. 74% of drivers answered positively. Participants that answered negatively or did not answer to the previous question were excluded from the next question, regarding the extent to which they would change their initial route choice. Therefore, 435 out of the 600 drivers answered this question. Out of them, only 4% would choose a different transport mode. It is obvious from the results that the online service has the capability to influence the route choice and redistribute car traffic in a more efficient way in the network. However, the service shows a weak ability to shift drivers from private cars to other modes of transport. This situation might have to do with the fact that users of the online service are only presented with the car traffic conditions and travel times even if major roads of the network in the city centre have lanes dedicated to public transport, which are offering lower travel times. Moreover, Egnatia Street, which is a major road that crosses the city centre and leads to the test destination and is used by all public bus lines terminating at test destination, has currently reduced capacity capabilities. At several parts, the road is reduced to one lane per direction of travel due to the construction works for the Thessaloniki Metropolitan Railway that are in progress. 4% 1% 8% 62% 25% Route change Partial route change to avoid congested areas Change of departure time Change of transport mode No change Figure 4: Degree of influence (h) Analysis of the results of the questionnaire survey concerning the usefulness of the real-time travel time information service, 89% of drivers find the provision of such a service either fairly or very useful (figure XX). Such results depict that users consider such a service as useful and needed for their daily mobility needs. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 27

29 Frequency 1% 2% 8% 44% 45% Not at all A little Sufficiently Very N/A Figure 5: Usefulness of Real-Time Travel Time Information Moreover, assessing the reliability of the information that is provided, 74% of drivers consider VMS provided information as reliable, whereas 43% of the respondents consider the online platform information as reliable. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Yes No N/A 10% 0% VMS reliable SEE-ITS platform reliable Figure 6: Reliability of VMSs and SEE-ITS platform operation (i) The results of the indicative field study that was conducted suggest that in 70% of all cases the driver will adjust his route according to the information provided by the online service. The results of the FOTs that were conducted suggest that in 70% of all cases the driver will adjust his route according to the information provided by the online service. Users acceptance of the information provided by the services can be assessed from the correlation between questions 12 and 13 of the questionnaire survey. 59% of all drivers would accept the system information, would take into account the information provided by the service and, at the same time, would make use of the service for route planning. Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 28

30 Case Study 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 71,76% 58,99% 20,67% 10,59% 8,57% 7,73% 3,87% 7,56% 4,20% 2,35% 2,35% 1,34% Yes No N/A Willingness to Use the Online Service for Route Planning Yes No N/A Sum Figure 7: Correlation of the willingness to use the online service for route planning with drivers taking into account the information provided Table 10: Area Type Evaluation (Greece) Local Area Type PILOT SITE: GREECE Context M.U. Impact Evaluation Specific Field Area Type of Local Impact (%) Regional National EC EN Increase Vehiclekilometres travelled Urban networks vkm/day Up to 5% N/A Up to 0,24% EC EN Reduction Vehicles-hours travelled (Urban) Urban networks vh/day 2-5% N/A N/A EN, EC Fuel consumption reduction (Urban) Urban networks L/day Up to 4% N/A Up to 0,192% EN, SO Emissions reduction (Urban) Urban networks g/day Up to 4% N/A Up to 0,192% SO Increased number of better informed travellers Urban networks N people 74 % 64% 7,1% EC, EN Modal shift - reduction road transport Urban networks N vehicles 4% - - SO User Acceptance Urban networks N people 44% 38% 4,2% Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 29

31 Vienna Pilot-site The following table summarize the impact detected in the condition of the pilot. Table 11: Demo-activity Impacts (Vienna) PILOT SITE: Vienna Impact Type (in the pilot M.U. conditions) User Satisfaction % of people 73,00 User Acceptance % of people 38,00 Type of road Urban Interurban Emissions reduction gco 2 /day 5% Reduction of Accidents N of acc 1% As the Austrian demonstration is related to motorways only, reliable scaling and transfer of results to regional or urban level is not possible. Reduction of vehicle kilometres is not the primary objective since the Austrian Demo is mostly about increasing safety on the one hand and comfort on the other. Therefore the reduction of vehicle hours shall be the primary measuring item, which however sometimes means a slight increase of kilometres to be travelled. However distances may increase they are travelled in more constant speed and therefore bear the potential for reduction of emissions, leading to more user satisfaction and acceptance. The most significant advantage would of course be the reduction of casualties in traffic. All of the mentioned would naturally require a high penetration level throughout Austrian vehicle owners and also foreign drivers since on parts of the Austrian motorway network there is a high load of transit traffic. For the Austrian test-site 10 drivers have been considered and interviewed. Table 12: Area Type Evaluation (Austria) Local Area Type PILOT SITE: AUSTRIA Context M.U. Impact Evaluation Specific Field Area Type of Local Impact (%) Regional National EC, Reduction of Vehiclekilometres Motorways EN Vkm/day --- N.A. 0-5% Network EC, EN SO SO EN, EC SO, EC Reduction of Vehicles-hours User Satisfaction User Acceptance Emissions reduction Reduction of Accidents Motorways Network Motorways Network Motorways Network Motorways Network Motorways Network V*h/day --- N.A. 5-15% % people % people 73% N.A. 60% 80% N.A. 80% gco2/day 5% N.A. 0-3% N acc 1% N.A. 0-3% Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 30

32 Timisoara and Danube area Pilot-site The following table summarize the impact detected in the condition of the pilot. Table 13: Demo-activity Impacts (Timisoara and Danube area) PILOT SITE: Timisoara and Danube Area Impact Type (in the pilot conditions) U.M. Type of road Interurba Urban n Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled (km/day) 10 % 1 % Reduction of travel times Min/hours 5-9 % 11 % Fuel consumption reduction L/day 10 % 5 % Increased number of better informed travellers N people 60 % Modal shift - reduction road transport Ton/km Pass/km 20 % User Satisfaction N of people 80 % User Acceptance N of people 90 % Using regional and national statistical data (see Annex II) collected by each partner and the impacts detected during the demonstration activities, impacts at regional and national level have been calculated (table 11). They represent the effects of a wider implementation of the ITS piloted by each Demo. In this case, two different context are considered, analysed and compared: Timisoara and Timisoara County Bucharest and Bucharest/Ilfov Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 31

33 Type of Impact Reduction Vehicle-km travelled Reduction Vehicle-km travelled Reduction Vehicle-km travelled Reduction Vehicle-km travelled Reduction of travel times Table 14: Area Type of Evaluation (Romania) PILOT SITE: Timisoara / Danube - Romania Local Context & M.U. Impact Specific Field (%) Urban N. Timisoara Urban N. Bucharest Inter. N. Timisoara/County Inter. N. Bucharest/ Ilfov Urban Network Timisoara/County vk/day vk/day vk/day vk/day t (min) Reduction of travel times Urban Network t (min) Reduction of travel times Reduction of travel times Fuel consumption reduction Fuel consumption reduction Fuel consumption reduction Fuel consumption reduction Increased number of better informed travellers Increased number of better informed travellers Modal shift - reduction road transport Modal shift - reduction road transport User Satisfaction User Satisfaction User Acceptance User Acceptance Interurban N. Timisoara/County Interurban N. Bucharest/ Ilfov Urban Network Timisoara/County Urban Network Bucharest/ Ilfov Interurban N. Timisoara/County Interurban N. Bucharest/ Ilfov Urban & Inter. N. Timisoara/County Urban & Interurban N. Urban & Inter. N. Timisoara/County Urban & Inter. N. Bucharest/ Ilfov Urban & Inter. N. Timisoara/County Urban & Inter. N. Bucharest/ Ilfov Urban & Inter. N. Timisoara/County Urban & Inter. N. Bucharest/ Ilfov 10% 265,061 10% 771,510 N.A. N.A. 5%-9 % %-9 % t (min) - t (min) - l/day l/day 10% % 1,939 l/day - l/day - daily trips daily trips % vehicles % vehicles travellers travellers travellers / people travellers / people 60% 360,000 60% 2,109,563 20% 10% 20% 15% 80% 4,297,168 80% 4,297,168 90% 4,834,314 90% 4,834,314 Area Type Evaluation Regional National N.A. 5,065,152 N.A. 1% 22,854 1% 6,713 N.A. 636, , % % , ,613 48, ,613 5% 7,640 5% 24, , ,806 77,200 26,752,386 NA 26,752,386 14% 15% 15% 15% 546,351 17,007,066 1,819,278 17,007, ,645 19,132,949 2,046,688 19,132,949 Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 32

34 Budapest Pilot-site The following table summarize the impact detected in the condition of the pilot. Table 15: Demo-activity Impacts (Budapest pilot-site) Impact Type (in the pilot conditions) PILOT SITE: Budapest U.M. Type of road Urban Interurban Reduction Vehicle-kilometres travelled (km/day) 0,1 % 0,2 % Increased number of better informed travellers N people 1-8 % 2 Modal shift - reduction of use of private vehicles Ton/km Pass/km Using regional and national statistical data (see Annex II) collected by each partner and the impacts detected during the demonstration activities, impacts at regional and national level have been calculated (table 13). They represent the effects of a wider implementation of the ITS piloted by each Demo. 1 % Table 16: Area Type of Evaluation (Hungary) PILOT SITE: HUNGARY Local Area Type Context M.U. Impact Evaluation Specific Field Area Type of Local Impact (%) Regional National EC EN Reduction Vehiclekilometres travelled Urban networks Km/day 0,15% 0,098% 0,06% EC EN Reduction Vehiclekilometres travelled Interurban networks Km/day 0.2 % 0,116 % 0,075% SO Increased number of better informed travellers Target users (recreational cyclists) % 4 % 2 % 0,6% EC, EN Modal shift (reduction of use of private vehicles) Target users % -1 % - 0,5% 0,02% 2 Depends on the weather circumstances, because the target users are the tourists and recreational cyclist Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 33

35 Emilia Romagna Pilot-site The following table summarize the impact detected in the condition of the pilot. Table 17: Demo-activity Impacts (Emilia Romagna Pilot-site) Impacts U.M. Urban Type of road Interurban Recognition Rate N of people 80 % 80 % Reduction of number of accidents N acc / trips 10 % 10 % a) Number of detected DG vehicles Local Impact: recognition rate = 80% for speed<60 km/h Specific Field: related to Motorway traffic flows (Ring Road) Measure Unit: n vehicles/ year Statistics Data: Bologna (local level, pilot level) =0,163 M DG vehicles/year (motorway) Emilia Romagna = 0,883 M DG vehicles/year (Bologna represent the 18% of the total regional traffic flows on the motorways) National =3 M DG vehicles/year (Bologna represent the 5% of the total national traffic flows motorway) Impacts Detected DG vehicles 1. SOLUTION a - Scalability of the LOCAL impact to regional and national areas Local: 80% of total DG vehicles travelling Regional: 14,4 % (the 80% at local level corresponds to the 14,4% at Regional Level) National: 4 % (the 80% at local level corresponds to the 14,4% at National Level) 2. SOLUTION b - Evaluation of the impact in case the DEMO is implemented on different geographic areas Local: 0,134 M vehicles/year Regional: 0,7064 M vehicles/year if the ITS will be implement on all the Regional Motorways National: 2,4 M vehicles/year if the ITS will be implement on all the National Motorways b) Reduced number of accidents involving DG vehicles Local Impact: reduction of DG Accidents = 10% Specific Field: related to Motorway traffic flows (Ring Road) Measure Unit: n accidents/ year Statistics Data: Deliverable D6.1.0: Impact assessment of ITS applications in SEE 34