Wind Energy in the Mitigation of Carbon Emissions

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Wind Energy in the Mitigation of Carbon Emissions"

Transcription

1 Wind Energy in the Mitigation of Carbon Emissions WindPower 2009 Walter Short and Patrick Sullivan May 6, 2009 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

2 Scope and Approach Energy Sector: Electric Policy: Carbon cap: By 2050 reduce U.S. electric sector carbon emissions to 20% of 2005 emissions Technologies considered All central electric generation technologies Carbon capture and sequestration for coal, gas, biopower Electric storage CAES, pumped hydro Approach ReEDS (formerly WinDS) model

3 ReEDS in the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Study

4 ReEDS Model (Regional Energy Deployment System Model) ( A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S. Designed to estimate market potential of renewable energy in the Lower 48 electric sector for the next 20 to 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios

5 ReEDS Regions

6 General Characteristics of ReEDS Linear program cost minimization for each of 23 two-year periods from 2006 to 2050 All major power technologies hydro, gas CT, gas CC, 4 coal technologies (w/wo sequestration), nuclear, gas/oil steam, wind, CSP, biopower (wo sequestration), geothermal, 3 storage techs Sixteen time slices in each year: 4 daily and 4 seasons (plus one super-peak slice) Major inputs future electric demands and fuel prices by region Simple elasticities provide demand and fossil fuel price response 6 levels of regions RE supply, power control areas, RTOs, states, NERC areas, Interconnection areas Existing and new transmission lines State-level incentives 5 wind classes (3-7), onshore and offshore shallow and deep with capacity factors by type, class and time of year Stochastic treatment of wind resource variability planning reserves, operating reserves, curtailments

7 Region Definitions Time-slice Definitions ReEDS Processing Transmission Data Transmission Requirements Resource Data Initial Capacity Load Growth Forecast Technology Cost/ Performance Forecasts Load Requirements Installed Capacity Fuel Prices Technology Cost/ Performance Data 2-year ReEDS Optimization New Generating Capacity New Transmission Capacity Dispatch Fuel Price Forecasts Wind Variability Parameters State/Federal Rules/Incentives Financing Assumptions System Requirements Electricity Price Forecasts Electricity Price Fuel Demand Forecasts Fuel Usage

8 Wind Resource in ReEDS

9 Direct Solar Resource in ReEDS

10 Geothermal Resource in ReEDS

11 Biomass Resource in ReEDS

12 ReEDS Base Case Inputs Technology cost/performance from 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study AEO 2009 Reference Case fuel prices and electric demands No carbon cap/tax.

13 Base Case Generation

14 Carbon Case Inputs/Assumptions Carbon cap: By 2050 reduce U.S. electric sector carbon emissions to 20% of 2005 emissions Technology cost/performance from 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case fuel prices and electric demands Climate case projection of PV in buildings from UCS Climate Analysis Carbon allowances are assumed to be allocated through an auction system. No assumption is made with respect to the use of the auction revenues.

15 Carbon Emissions (base vs cap)

16 Carbon Cap: Capacity

17 Carbon Cap: Generation

18 Carbon Cap: Electricity Prices

19 Carbon Cap: Map of 2050 RE Capacity

20 Carbon Cap: Map of 2050 Wind Capacity

21 What if we bar offshore wind in SE?

22 No Southern Offshore Wind: Generation

23 Carbon Cap: Generation Note the penetration of CCS after 2036

24 No CCS Technologies: Generation

25 Carbon allowance price

26 Conclusions Renewable electric technologies can be expected to be major contributors to U.S. electric generation under a strong carbon cap policy. Wind energy can be expected to be a major, but not majority, contributor under a strong carbon cap policy. With very high wind energy use, offshore wind can be expected to be a major contributor due to its proximity to coastal loads and high capacity factors. Nuclear could play a significant role if CCS is not viable.

27 Thank you! Questions?