Transforming the energy sector transforming the economy The importance of Global Innovation and Collaboration

Transcription

1 Transforming the energy sector transforming the economy The importance of Global Innovation and Collaboration Jean François Gagné Energy Technology Policy Division Head International Energy Agency

2 IEA supports the energy transition IEA: the global energy authority Part of the OECD family Founded in 1974 to co ordinate a response to oil supply disruptions 015: IEA Modernisation grounded on three main pillars global energy security energy cooperation and global dialogue promoting an environmentally sustainable energy future Build on a decade of analysis on what we need to do to keep temperature increase below C Now developing analysis on faster and deeper energy sector decarbonisation

3 Context First clear signs of decoupling of CO emissions and GDP Global energy related CO emissions flattened in 015 after their slowest historical increase in 014, despite growing GDP Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW installed in 015 COP1 provided a historic push for clean energy Start of a new era of collaboration: Country based approaches preferred to top down regulation New goals put forward going beyond what everyone already considered challenging when our first ETP was released in 006 Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential to meet ambitious climate goals

4 Energy Innovation is crucial to a sustainableenergy energy transition Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO reductions DS Renewables 3% GtC CO Energy efficiency 3% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% DS CCS 15% 0 Energy innovation has already yielded solutions,

5 Energy Innovation is crucial to a sustainableenergy energy transition Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO reductions DS Renewables 3% GtC CO Energy efficiency 3% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% DS CCS 15% 0 Energy innovation hasalreadyyieldedalready yielded solutions, but needs support and guidance to deliver on its promises

6 And the challenge increases to get from degrees to well below degrees Energy and process related CO emissions by sector in the DS GtC CO Agriculture % Buildings 8% Industry 33% Transport 4% Other transformation 4% 5 Power 9% 0 Industry and transport taccount for 75% of the remaining emissions in the DS in 050.

7 Systems thinking and integration Centralised fuel production, power and storage Today s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy

8 Systems thinking and integration Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources H vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, multidirectional and integrated system that requires long term planning for services delivery

9 Context: Wind and PV Downward price trends continuingrapidly Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned over Jordan India India USD/MWh (n nominal) South Africa South Africa Uruguay Chile Canada Brazil Brazil Brazil USA UAE Germany France Jordan Australia South Africa Brazil Germany USA South Africa India Chile Egypt Morocco Peru Peru Solar PV Wind onshore Best results occur where price competition, long term contracts and good resource availability are combined IEA 016

10 Renewables investment buys much more electricity Global renewable power investment Generation from investment in capacity USD015 billion % TWh % Hydropower Solar PV Wind Other renewables Investment from renewables based capacity more than covers 015 global electricity growth. Wind leads, surging 35% in 015 on economics and record offshore growth.

11 Efficiency gains have been driven by the expansion of policy Share of global energy use covered by mandatory standards and regulations Lighting Light-duty vehicles Space heating 015 Appliances Heavy-duty vehicles Electric motors 000 World total 0% 10% 0% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 30% of the world's energy consumption is now covered by mandatory standards and regulations, up from 11% in 000.

12 The market for energy efficiency services appears poised for growth Global energy service company revenues by country/region, 015 Other USD 1.9 billion China USD 13 billion United States USD 6.3 billion European Union USD.7 billion Theglobal energyservices market was USD4 billion in 015 and indicators point to future growth.

13 Battery investment has taken off Global grid scale battery storage investment Total networks investment USD (015 5) billion 1, 1,0 0,8 x10 USD (015 5) billion , , , 50 0, % Grid scale battery storage spending has expanded tenfold since 010. Their value lies most in complementing centralised grids that constitute the bulk of investment.

14 Crossing the 1 million EVs threshold ands) Electric ca ar stock (thous Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, Others Canada Germany United Kingdom France Norway Netherlands Japan China United dstatest BEV BEV + PHEV Annual EV sales grew by 70% over 014, catching up to rates needed to meet the DS target.

15 Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate Technology Status today against DS targets Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind Other renewable power Nuclear More efficient coal fired power Carbon capture and storage Biofuels Transport Industry Buildings Appliances and lighting Energy storage Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising

16 Energy RD&D funding now targets the right issues, but is not enough 30 5 IEA government Energy RD&D expenditure 1% 10% USD billio on % 6% 4% % % Energy efficiency Fossil Fuels Renewable energy Nuclear Other Share of energy in total R&D Energy RD&D spending should reflect the importance of energy technology in meeting climate objectives

17 Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time The right support depends d on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake

18 Better understanding innovation can increaseconfidence confidence inits its outcomes In order to accelerate technological progress in lowcarbon technologies, innovation policies should be systemic

19 Technology Roadmapping: Bringing stakeholders together global publications, 1 different technology areas Re endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meeting in May 016 (Kitakyushu) New Cycle for Implementation: Near term actions Regional Relevance Key partnerships (e.g. Finance) Metrics and Tracking Low Carbon Technology Roadmaps OECD/IEA,

20 The Clean Energy Ministerial A new home at the IEA Created in 010 as a forum for major economies and forward leaning countries ti Energy Demand Appliances (SEAD) Buildings and Industry (EMWG) (MWG) Energy Systems & Integration 1 st Century Power (1CPP) Energy Access (Global LEAP) Energy Supply Solar and Wind Bioenergy Electric Vehicles (EVI) Smart Grids (ISGAN) Hydropower Smart Cities (GSCN) Cross-Cutting Support Women in Clean Energy (C3E) Clean Energy Solutions Center

21 Mission Innovation (MI) Joint Launch Statement at COP1 Leaders of over 0 countries plus the European Union, representing well over 80% of globalcleanenergyr&d energy investments Each country supporting a doubling of its clean energy R&D investments over next 5 years; see: innovation.net Complemented by a private sector initiative, the Breakthrough Energy Coalition; see

22 Innovation and Deployment Essential Complements Mission Innovation Future Innovations Clean Energy Ministerial Deployment Now Science Research Development Analysis Tech Demos Policies Best Practices Capacity Building Prizes, Recognition Create New Ideas Improve Performance Reduce Cost Raise Awareness Facilitate Market Uptake

23 Innovation in a diverse world: no one size fits all solution Different regions have differing technology shares today and in 050 DS National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways

24 Sharing knowledge through the IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes Close to 6,000 experts More than 1,900 topics to date About 300 public or private entities 5 countries 39 TCPs 4 regional or international organisations This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area. Experts from countries shown above participate in activities of the Technology Collaboration Programmes.

25 IEA Energy Technology Activities Where do we need to go? Where are we today? How do we get there?

26 Energy Security Environmental Protection Economic Growth Engagement Worldwide

27 Supporting Energy Innovation Throughout the Entire Cycle Technology Collaboration Programmes Breakthrough Energy Coalition Financial Institutions Development Agencies Clean Energy Mission Innovation Ministerial

28 Thank you

29 ETP Publication Programme ETP 014 ETP 015 ETP 016 ETP 017 ETP 018 Part 1. Setting the Scene Global Outlook, Tracking Clean Energy Progress Part. Driving the Change (Thematic Focus) Harnessing Mobilising Building Re Defining TBD Electricity s Potential Innovation to Accelerate Urban Energy Clean Energy Technology Climate Action Systems Ambitions Investing in sustainable infrastructure Partner Country India China Mexico None (Global focus) TBD (Indonesia; Russia; Brazil)

30 Building a new cycle on existing foundations Part of a coherent suite of roadmaps Relevant metrics and tracking Closer look at financing and tradeoffs Consensus: workshops & steering groups Technology Status More regional relevance Long term vision Updates Milestones Near term policy priorities Roadmap ownership Seek partnerships for implementation Solve key energy problems, not single solutions Low Carbon Technology Roadmaps

31 Industry, Power and Transport will be the greatest emitters in the DS Cumulative energy and process relatedrelated CO emissions by sector in the DS, Industry 39 Gt Power 99 Gt Transport 4 Gt Buildings 80 Gt Other transformation 45 Gt Agriculture 18 Gt 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 30% 35% Industry, power, and transport account for 85% of cumulative direct CO emissions between 013 and 050 in the DS

32 Developed and emerging economies need to work together Energy and process relatedrelated CO emissions by region in the DS 45 O GtCO OECD 9% Other non OECD 31% India 11% 5 China 9% 0 In 013, OECD made up 38% of total emissions. In 050 OECD makes up % of emissions