Climate Change, Conservation and Coastlines Critical Concerns in South Florida?

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1 Climate Change, Conservation and Coastlines Critical Concerns in South Florida? Contents Greenhouse gas emissions Climate Challenges Interrelated Impacts Concepts for the Comprehensive Plan Dr. Ana Puszkin-Chevlin Sustainability Officer, Delray Beach

2 Basic Climate Change Science

3 Modernization increases GHG

4 GHG Emission by Sector in South Florida 2009 Transportation 45% Residential 28% Industrial 1% Commercial 26% CO2 concentrations reached over 400 parts per million in 2015 South Florida produces 64 million metric tons annually

5 New Comp Plan create a New Vision Future Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Coastal Element Conservation Open Space Sustainability and Resiliency

6 New Comp Plan New Vision Coastal Element Current Plan Hurricane Vulnerability must be addressed by low density land uses that meet LOS for evacuation routes Tourism and Property must be protected by beach management and seawalls Economic Vitality must be addressed by access to water and boating Unique Environmental Features must be protected turtles, manatees Post-Disaster Redevelopment should rebuild exactly what was there NEW CONSIDERATIONS Managing Different Risks Expanding the Coastal Geography Rethinking Asset Accumulation Put Barrier in Barrier Island

7 New Comp Plan New Vision Current Plan Assets: Lake Ida, Intracoastal, Ocean, Canals, Scrub Land, Mangrove, Oak Hammock, Manatee, Sea Turtles Concerns water pollution and conservation Preservation of species diversity Conservation NEW CONSIDERATIONS Water Retention Strategies Changing habitat types Invasives Coral Reefs Triple bottom line

8 Heat Waves & Air Quality 3º to 7º Increase in Average Temperatures by the end of the century 10º to 25º Increase in the Summer Heat Index in Florida

9 Sea level Rise How much?? Approximately 7 inches by 2030 and up to 2 feet by mid-century

10 Precipitation Variability..Some studies suggest the region will be wetter, while others project 20 percent less rainfall..the intensity and timing of rainfall may also change, which could lead to more frequent droughts and floods. Source: South Florida Water Management District

11 Saltwater Intrusion Statewide the number of well meeting water quality standards has decreased by approximately 8% since 2010

12 How to preserve Delray s Prosperity, Environment & Health? Will our grandchildren enjoy the same quality of life as you did?

13 Impacts of Built Environment

14 Taxable Values at Risk Sea Level Rise One Foot Two Foot Three Foot Broward County $403 Million $1.8 Billion $6,9 Billion To To To $828 million $3.9 Billion $12 Billion Palm Beach County $397 Million to $557 Million $1,3 Billion to $1.9 Billion $3.6 Billion to $4.5 Billion

15 Impacts to Economy

16 Impacts on Natural Environment

17 Impacts to Health

18 SOLUTIONS=Opportunity

19 A Paradigm for the Comp Plan Resiliency Sustainability

20 Vertical & Horizontal Integration Future Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Coastal Element Conservation Open Space Sustainability and Resiliency

21 Three Policy Approaches Engineered Hardening Land Use Regulations $$$ Equity Accept and Prepared

22 Retrofit and Enhance Infrastructure Pumps One way valves Higher Seawalls Raised Roadways Modernized Utilities

23 Enhance Natural Defenses Healthy Dunes & Beaches Mangrove Preservation Living Shoreline Minimal Sea Walls

24 Elevate, Retreat or Reposition Adaptation Action Areas Build Up - Elevate Set back or don t Rebuild Transfer of Development Rights

25 Design for Intensive Water Retention & Conservation

26 Acquisition & Conservation of Open Space Buffer human settlement Allow for recharge Provide habitat for wildlife

27 Accept and Prepare Build Over Float and flood proof Insurance and Emergency Management

28 Regional Planning (RCAP) and Interlocal Cooperation Regional Climate Action Plan Joint lobbying efforts Federal Recognition

29 Take-Away Points To address climate, we have to both mitigate greenhouse gases and adapt to impacts. Think long-term, act in the present. Uncertainties about the timing and magnitude climate impacts should result in inaction. Educate and engage citizens to drive policy and implementation

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31 Sea Level Rise In Southeast Florida

32 Inundation Projections for South Florida today 7 inches inches inches 2100

33 King Tides are the Bellwether

34 Current Delray Beach

35 Bathtub Model -- 2ft Sea Level Rise

36 Bathtub Model --4 Feet Sea Level Rise

37 Not Simply a Coastal Issue Rising Water Table and Limited Soil Storage Capacity Diminishes Capacity of Wet and Dry Retention Areas

38 More Intense Hurricanes and Warmer Oceans will intensify hurricanes A 1 C (1.8 F) increases water vapor by about 7%. Storm Surges

39 Florida s Plumbing System 1400 miles of Levees & Canals 200 Water Control Features 18 Pumping Stations

40 Limited Canal Capacity

41 Inland Flooding

42 Wetter Wets 22.2 inches of rain (A once in 1000-year event), Jan. 10, 2014, Boynton Beach, FL Wetter Wets Storm Water System will meet capacity & Soil Saturation No way to drain coastal areas Longer time to drain inland areas Too much run-off Ineffective aquifer recharge Estuary salinity levels are impacted Degrade water quality

43 Drier Droughts Natural Habitat Loss in Species Diversity Habitat Shift Economy Agriculture Food Supply Manufacturing Tourism Recreation Golf Courses Swimming Pools Boating Life safety Water contamination Wildfires Sinkholes

44 Saltwater Intrusion Explanation

45 Public Water Wells

46 Coral Reefs Between 25%-30% of excess Co2 has been absorbed in the oceans. The oceans are 30% more acidic than in preindustrial times.

47 Insured Risk is to High National Flood Insurance Program is ill equipped to address the growing risk. Too much exposure Insufficient protective standards Rising Premiums are inevitable, forcing property owners to take preventive actions or move.