3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2010

Transcription

1 3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2010 Nitrogen emission data, as well as the model results presented here have been approved by the 36 th Session of the Steering Body of EMEP in Geneva in September The version rv4.0 of the EMEP/MSC-W Eulerian model has been used for all nitrogen computations presented in this Chapter. Compared to the model version rv3.6, used in 2011 for computing 2009 deposition, many changes have been introduced into the present model. The most important are: new vertical distribution of emissions, integration of SOA model into the EMEP/MSC-W model system, explicit calculation of H+ and ph in cloud water, change in mass median diameter for coarse nitrate and about 10 other changes/improvements (EMEP Status Report 1/2012). All 2010 deposition calculations were performed for the EMEP extended domain introduced in 2007 which includes countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. Meteorological input data necessary for 2010 EMEP model calculations were provided by ECMWF Numerical Weather Prediction model (ECMWF-IFS). Most of Europe experienced more precipitation in 2010 than in It was also true for the Baltic Sea basin with much higher precipitation in 2010 than in The surface temperature of the Baltic Sea basin was higher in 2009 than in Emission input data for 2010 were prepared by the EMEP Centre on Emission Inventories and Projections (CEIP). The EMEP Parties reported emission inventory data using standard formats in accordance with the EMEP Reporting guidelines. For the EMEP models, reported by Parties sectoral (NFR09) emissions were aggregated into 10 SNAP sectors. To fill in the missing gaps in sectoral emissions, CEIP applied different methods including Expert estimates. For shipping emissions, the NO x, SO x and PM data were computed by linear interpolation with recent calculations from IIASA for the years 2005 and Between 2010 and 2009, emissions of NO x and NH 3 in the entire extended EMEP area decreased by 6% and 0.8%, respectively. The sum of nitrogen oxides emissions from all HELCOM contracting parties decreased 15% between 2009 and 2010, mainly because of the large (31%) reduction of NO x emissions in Russia. Nitrogen oxides emissions from the international ship traffic on the Baltic Sea increased 1.8% between 2009 and The sum of ammonia emissions from all HELCOM contracting parties increased 0.9% from 2009 to Calculated annual deposition of total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin in 2010 was 219 kt, approximately 12% higher than in Deposition of oxidized nitrogen was 20% higher and deposition of reduced nitrogen was 3% higher in 2010 compared to Deposition of oxidized nitrogen accounted for 57% of total nitrogen deposition in 2010.

2 20 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.1 Nitrogen emissions Table 3.1. Annual total 2010 emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia from the HELCOM Contracting Parties and Baltic See ship traffic. Sum of HELCOM emissions is also included. Units: kt N per year. Emission source Pollutant NO x NH 3 Denmark Estonia 11 8 Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russian Federation Sweden HELCOM Baltic Sea 101

3 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.1. Percent of annual emissions of total (oxidized + reduced) nitrogen that is deposited on the Baltic Sea basin in 2010, for HELCOM Parties and international ship traffic on the Baltic Sea (BAS).

4 22 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure 3.2. Map of annual emission of oxidized nitrogen (including emissions from the ship traffic) in the Baltic Sea region in Units: Mg (tonnes) of NO 2 per year and per km grid cell.

5 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.3. Map of annual emission of ammonia in the Baltic Sea region in Units: Mg of NH 3 per year and per km grid cell.

6 24 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Table 3.2. The list of 11 SNAP emission sectors as specified in the EMEP-CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook. Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 4 Sector 5 Sector 6 Sector 7 Sector 8 Sector 9 Sector 10 Sector 11 Combustion in energy and transformation industry Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy Solvent and other product use Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery (including ship traffic) Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture Other sources and sinks

7 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GERMANY LATVIA LITHUANIA POLAND RUSSIA SWEDEN Figure 3.4. Annual 2010 nitrogen oxides emissions from the HELCOM Parties split into the SNAP sectors.

8 26 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GERMANY LATVIA LITHUANIA POLAND RUSSIA SWEDEN Figure 3.5. Annual 2010 ammonia emissions from the HELCOM Parties split into the SNAP sectors.

9 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.7 Map of annual emissions of nitrogen oxides from the international ship traffic on the Baltic Sea in 2010 used in the EMEP model calculations. Units: Mg of NO 2 per year and per km grid cell. Emission input data for 2010 were prepared by the CEIP. For shipping emissions, the NO x, SO x and PM data were computed by linear interpolation with recent calculations from IIASA for the years 2005 and 2010.

10 28 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.2 Annual deposition of nitrogen Figure 3.8. Map of annual deposition flux of oxidized nitrogen (dry + wet) in Units: mg N m -2 yr -1.

11 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.9. Map of annual deposition flux of reduced nitrogen (dry + wet) in Units: mg N m -2 yr -1.

12 30 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure Map of annual deposition flux of total (oxidized + reduced) nitrogen in Units: mg N m -2 yr -1.

13 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure Map of annual precipitation in Units: mm yr -1.

14 32 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.3 Monthly deposition of nitrogen Figure Monthly depositions of oxidized, reduced and total (oxidized +reduced) nitrogen to the entire Baltic Sea basin in Units: ktonnes N month -1. Table 3.3. Values of monthly depositions of oxidized, reduced and total (oxidized +reduced) nitrogen to the entire Baltic Sea basin in Units: ktonnes N month -1. Month Oxidized Reduced Total January February March April May June July August September October November December

15 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Source allocation of nitrogen deposition Figure Top twenty countries with highest contributions of nitrogen emissions to annual deposition of oxidized nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year Units: kt N year -1. Contributions from HELCOM countries and Baltic Sea are marked with green.

16 34 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure Contributions of nitrogen emissions from the HELCOM Parties, ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and remaining sources in the EMEP area to annual deposition of oxidized nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year REST denotes emission sources in the EMEP domain excluding HELCOM Parties and ship emissions from the Baltic Sea. Units: % of total deposition of oxidized nitrogen.

17 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure Top twenty countries with highest contributions of nitrogen emissions to annual deposition of reduced nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year Units: kt N year -1. Contributions from HELCOM countries and Baltic Sea are marked with green color.

18 36 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure Contributions of nitrogen emissions from the HELCOM Parties, ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and remaining sources in the EMEP area to annual deposition of reduced nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year REST denotes emission sources in the EMEP domain excluding HELCOM Parties and ship emissions from the Baltic Sea. Units: % of total deposition of reduced nitrogen.

19 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure Top twenty countries with highest contributions of nitrogen emissions to annual deposition of total nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year Units: kt N year -1. Contributions from HELCOM countries and Baltic Sea are marked with green color.

20 38 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure Contributions of nitrogen emissions from the HELCOM Parties, ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and remaining sources in the EMEP area to annual deposition of total nitrogen into the Baltic Sea basin in the year REST denotes emission sources in the EMEP domain excluding HELCOM Parties and ship emissions from the Baltic Sea. Units: % of total nitrogen deposition.

21 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Conclusions for Chapter 3 Calculated annual deposition of total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin in 2010 was 219 kt, approximately 12% higher than in Deposition of oxidised nitrogen accounted for 56% of total nitrogen deposition in Compared to 2010 nitrogen oxides emissions are higher ( %) in seven out of nine HELCOM Contracting Parties. Emission reductions took place in Denmark (-2.3%) and a large one in Russian Federation (-30.8%). Ship emissions from the Baltic Sea were 1.8% higher in 2010 than in Annual 2010 ammonia emissions remain on the same level as 2009 ammonia emissions in four out of nine HELCOM countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Latvia. The 2010 emissions are higher than 209 emissions in three CPs: Lithuania, (6.7%), Rusian Federeation (5.2%) and Sweden (3.8%). They are lower in Germany (-5.1%) and Poland (-0.7 %). Among the HELCOM Contracting Parties, the largest percent of 2010 nitrogen emissions deposited to the Baltic Sea basin can be noticed for Denmark (14.9%) and the lowest for Russia (0.7%). Spatial distributions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia emissions in 2010 are very similar to the distributions in Spatial distributions of oxidized and reduced nitrogen deposition in 2010 are also very similar to the distributions of nitrogen deposition in No clear seasonal pattern can be found in monthly nitrogen depositions in 2010, with maximum of the deposition in February and August. Germany, Poland, ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and Russia are the main emission sources contributing to oxidized nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin in There is not much difference compared to 2009 ranking. As in 2008 and in 2009, Germany, Poland and Denmark are top three sources contributing to reduced nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin in The main sources contributing to total nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea basin are: Germany, Poland, Denmark, Russian Federation and Sweden.

22 40 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM As in previous years, also in 2010 some distant sources like United Kingdom, France and ship traffic on the North Sea contribute significantly to nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea basin. Contribution from boundary and initial conditions (BIC) is slightly lower in 2010 than in 2009.