Sustainable Cities Pictures of the Future: Trends and Scenarios

Transcription

1 Sustainable Cities Pictures of the Future: Trends and Scenarios acatech CiSTUP symposium Bangalore April 25, 2012 Siemens Information Systems Ltd.

2 Committed to profit and growth Revenue by Sector Revenue by Region Healthcare 12.5 billion Energy 27.6 billion 17% 16% 37% 33% 43% 45% Other Industry 32.9 billion Total revenue of Sectors and Cross-Sector Businesses Asia, Australia America Based on cluster location Germany 15% 19% 21% 18% 15% 28% 26% 38% 40% Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East (excl. Germany) Revenue and employees 100,000 Employees in thousands 80,000 60,000 40, , Revenue in millions of euros FY Key figures Continuing operations (in millions of euros) FY2010 FY2011 New orders 74,055 85,582 Revenue 68,978 73,515 Income 5,974 9,242 Free cash flow 7,043 5,885 Employees 336, ,000 As of September 30, 2011 Page 2

3 Innovation is our lifeblood Key R&D figures R&D spending: billion in fiscal 2011, or 5.3% of revenue 27,800 R&D employees worldwide Roughly 17,000 software engineers 160 R&D locations in roughly 30 countries around the world 8,600 inventions in fiscal ,300 patents granted R&D spending in percent of revenue 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% Focus on sustainability Revenue from environmental portfolio (in billions) CO 2 abatement at customers (in millions of tons) ~40% of total revenue (target) roughly equal to 1% of global CO 2 emissions in Page st most innovative company of Sector Leader for 4 th year in a row World s 3 rd best green brand

4 Four megatrends Urbanization World's population in cities : 2007: 50 % 2050: 70% 3.4 billion 5.2 billion Contribution to world GDP 600 cities (22% population): 2007: 51% 2025: 60% 1 Move to cities: ~ 70 million/year Demographic Change Population of 65+ old people: 2011: 550 mn 2050:1,500 mn Need for institutions for health and elder care Climate Change Cities consume/produce 75% of the world s energy 60% of all drinking water 80% of all greenhouse gases Climate change strongly linked to urbanization Globalization Annual GDP growth till 2020: India 8.6%, China 8.1%, USA ~3%, Ger. 1.7% 2 Emerging markets offer significant opportunities and also challenges 1. McKinsey 2007, 2. IHS Global Insight 2011 Cities are shaping our future! Page 4

5 City trends overview Framework for scenarios Admin., Finance & Participation Strategy Plg. & Identity Architecture & Plg./Mgmt. Information & Comm. Tech. Healthcare & Well-being partnerships ICT as key enabler/ driver complexity demand for new living spaces/land Management and development ICT/building automation Laws/incentives for energy efficiency penetration of IT Sensor pervasion Digital natives Aging society Nano-/Bio-/Gentech Work & Leisure 273 Trends imp. for cities Environment Resources & Recycling Water 12 Trend Clusters Transportation & Logistics Energy Quality of life Safety & Security Remote work places 24x7 working life stress levels Virtual technologies Social Structures Lack of landfill space Scarcity of agricultural land global water stress migration traffic volume/ Climate change Pervasion of ICT congestion energy demand / Cyber crime technologies Regulation changes energy Ubiquitous Individualization/ Traffic/mobility Copyright Siemens independence Information Systems sensor Ltd. networks All rights flexibility reserved. pattern

6 Pictures of the Future Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Energy 2050 Most of the power from renewable energy / CO 2 -free sources Power corridors with very low transmission losses through new technologies More decentralized energy Integration of energy grid with mobility concept and with demand side management of buildings Highly resilient electrical infrastructure in case of failure based on smart grid Page 6

7 Pictures of the Future Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Transportation & Logistics 2050 New mobility concepts will improve capacity and flexibility of transportation infrastructure (autonomous, zero-accident transport capsules, zero pollution, convoy-configuration, 3D-bus). Integrated intelligent infrastructure and traffic management system using real-time data and forecast s to optimize. Always-on services, dematerialization and decentralization will reduce individual traffic Intermodal, seamless and demand-oriented mobility as a preferred service with "zero effort traveling Efficient hub concepts e.g. mega hubs and consolidation centers: intelligent, multi-purpose infrastructure Page 7

8 Pictures of the Future Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Social Structures & Values 2050 Global migration leads to social and cultural diversity in urban areas. A structural shift of economic power is based on rising wealth, better education and living standards of middle classes, especially in Asia. Down ageing: live long - stay young Virtual/ICT technologies and highly flexible lifestyle will lead to Access Society influencing human values and traditions. Successful vertical democracy and appreciated social engagement raising communities / cooperative individualism creates new communities Flexible life style and planning Page 8

9 Pictures of the Future Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Architecture & Urban Planning/Management 2050 CO 2 -free housing-standard will be mandatory for all new buildings. Building clusters with multi-level infrastructure provide living space, work- and leisure opportunities at close distance. Scalability is achieved via decentralized infrastructures (waste, water, energy). New shapes and materials result in green and highly efficient building constructions optimized for regional climate and environment. Quality of life is improved by building (cluster) construction (e.g. daylight concepts), green layers (in/out/betwen buildings) Improved mobility concepts inside of buildings and between buildings/building clusters. Recycling of building and city constructions (lifecycle) Page 9

10 Sustainable City Comprehensive Scenario Sub-scenarios Decentralized City Sensible City Seamless Mobility Me X- Lifestyle City in environmental balance Page 10

11 Scenario City in Environmental Balance Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation Building automation for optimized energy management Implementation of 3R-water systems and rain water collection facilities New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings Building as a tree Page 11 Harmonization of citizens and environment: Common understanding for environmental impacts: green mindset, megreen footprint

12 Scenario City in Environmental Balance Building automation improves energy efficiency International water institution and water recycling Integrated solar cells Use of waste water heat for building heating Energy harvesting e.g. body heat, step pressure CO 2 reduction by synthetic photosynthesis Methanol/H2 Integrated wind wheels on building roofs, balconies, parking areas, Integrated river turbines Integrated phase change materials optimize heat exchange Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation Building automation for optimized energy management Implementation of R³-water systems and rain water collection facilities New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings Building as a tree Page 12 Waste to power/ new logistic concepts in building/city districts Citizens in harmony with the environment: Common view of environmental impact - green mindset

13 Energy Efficiency Vision Natural light supported by high efficient artificial light / OLED Solar energy on roof and facade Passive climate by thermal insulation Part of smart grid Phase change material regulating room climate Prism windows guiding light depending on the sun s position Energy storage Cars buffer energy Page 13 Heat exchanged with the earth Buildings consume ~40% of worldwide energy and produce 21% of all CO 2 emissions. Saving potential: 40%

14 Innovative, sustainable and energy efficient solutions for urban spaces We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities Page 14

15 Solutions for the city of London Heathrow Express: Siemens Desiro trains travel time from 50 to 15 min Carry 16,000 passengers/day Smart Grid: Siemens is working on a power distribution concept to reduce CO 2 emissions by 60% by 2020 Toll System: intelligent video systems that traffic volume by 20% street congestion by 26% CO 2 emissions by50,000 tons/yr cars on streets by 60,000 London Array offshore wind farm: World s largest offshore wind farm 175 wind turbines produce 630 MW Energy for ~750,000 households CO 2 emissions by 1.9 mn tons/yr Electric mobility: London's goal is to have 1,300 public charging stations in operation across the entire city by 2013 We're supplying software solutions and related services Hybrid buses: combination of diesel-electric engines and energy storage systems fuel consumption by 40% emissions by 40% We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities Page 15

16 Building Management Solutions Effective Intelligent Energy Management Siemens Headquarters Mumbai Energy consumption in buildings 100% No BMS 90% 80% BMS without energy monitoring Energy consumption Energy Costs ROI 22% 38% 1.4 years 70% 60% BMS with energy monitoring Time BMS with efficiency measures can result in significant savings even in old buildings! Page 16

17 Effective Transportation Solutions 3-Phase Propulsion Systems Suburban trains of Mumbai Energy consumption 30% CO 2 level in coach (better ventilation) Ride comfort 40% Improved Speed Increased superior technology delivers greater benefits! Page 17

18 Energy Distribution Solutions DMS system for Maharashtra R-APDRP program Distribution Management System Challenges Secure network control and current information Easy scheduled switching Easy fault location/isolation and service restoration Better utilization of network capacity Better reliability and quality T&D losses Dependency on sub-station staff Poor quality of service to the consumers Poor integration between network operations and IT systems Solution SCADA and DMS system at control rooms RTUs at substations and FRTUs at RMUs Communication backbone Data Recovery Center Page 18

19 Questions? Marketing Siemens Information Systems Ltd. Phone: Visit us at the Indo-German Urban Mela June 22 July 1, 2012 Palace Grounds, Bangalore

20 Definition of sustainable city The concept of sustainable development is an evolving, debatable term. There is no one single definition. As an example, the definition for sustainable urban development that was agreed on in the preparatory meetings for the URBAN21 Conference (Berlin, July 2000) is referred to in the following: "Improving the quality of life in a city, including ecological, cultural, political, institutional, social and economic components without leaving a burden on the future generations. A burden which is the result of a reduced natural capital and an excessive local debt. Our aim is that the flow principle, that is based on an equilibrium of material and energy and also financial input/output, plays a crucial role in all future decisions upon the development of urban areas. Reference: Page 20

21 Thank You! Any Questions?

22 Looking into the future Big challenges ahead Technology Push Moore s Law: Computing Power goes low cost commodity ubiquituous a universal enabler Megatrends: Market Pull Urbanisation Demografic change Climate change Data - Information - Knowledge: universal access to information tremendous cost decrease ubiquitous production Main enabler for the digital society Innovation engine Global Trends: Globalisation of supply chains Interdependency of politics and trade, Specific technology trends Specific demand side trends Page 22 Alignment and goal orientation

23 Urbanization More people are being born, live in or are moving to cities Page 23

24 The urban millennium Source: McKinsey 2007 Page 24

25 Solutions for the city of London Page 25

26 Sustainability is top of mind for city administrators Challenges Population Global competitiveness Clean environment Technologies Economic power Quality of life Page 26