The Challenges to Social Sciences and Humanities Dr. Olivia Bina, Research Fellow the Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Transcription

1 The Challenges to Social Sciences and Humanities Dr. Olivia Bina, Research Fellow the Universidade Nova de Lisboa The role of social sciences and humanities (SSH) has always included the need to serve society and assist social development. China s social science expertise is finding renewed vigour and influence at a critical time of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Given the interdependent world in which we now live, collaboration between the EU and China in these disciplinary domains is to be welcomed. It should lead to mutual learning, and a greater capacity to define the challenges and thus find effective solutions to a world of limited resources and growing risks. Challenges to sustainable development and resource scarcity The EU, its member states (MSs), and China all share a strong rhetorical support from the highest levels of Government. Sustainable Development Strategies (SDS) exist at different levels of governance, however, in practice many challenges still remain to be solved, including: The tension between defining development or growth, competitiveness policies, and the secondary position in which SDSs are often relegated, and the opportunities arising from a renewed sense of urgency (crisis?) which has placed at least sustainable energy at the centre of the development agenda (both in the EU and China). The need for clarity: SD is well known for its complex, sometimes nebulous, meanings, however in China especially there is an urgent need to improve local Governments understanding of SD, including the concepts of scientific approach to development and harmonious society. The EU and China share a common challenge in terms of being densely populated lands, with limited per-capita resources. As developing countries claim their share of resources, these constraints are becoming tangible, and of great concern for society. Additional demand and pressure on scarce resources is making relationship between society and nature increasingly problematic. The news are replete with more or less direct references to this strained relationship: from the rising momentum behind climate change debate, to the crises unravelling in the realm of food, energy, water, security and finance. The challenge is to define a bold, new vision for our common future, given known resource constraints, uncertainties and risks. This requires a revision of our understanding of progress to facilitate the transition to sustainable societies, as well as the relevance of fundamental and challenging concepts such as responsibility and happiness. The first two points are linked: in China, scientific development seeks to balance social and economic development, with a view to protecting the environment. In practice, provincial and local levels of government find it very difficult to operationalise this balance (with exceptions in the rich coastal areas). The EU has developed and refined concepts and policies for Environmental Policy Integration as a way to operationalise SD, however, practice has fallen short of promise. It may be useful to return to the drawing board, and ask again: why so many obstacles to the implementation of SD? Why is it so difficult for Government, and for society, to shift priorities? Research into these basic questions would help to revise or replace ineffective approaches and policies.

2 The EU and China would also benefit from combining and comparing the different worldviews and value systems that characterise their relationship between society and nature, as well as renewed attention to fundamental ideas of responsibility and happiness, mentioned earlier. Much has been said about China s tradition in these fields, and prominent commentators across the world have expressed the belief that China will lead us into a sustainable century. Sharing ideas on the concept of progress seems a good way to build on such promise. Challenges to climate change policies The tensions between mitigating climate change and the pursuit of economic and social objectives is exemplary of the challenges discussed above. The starting position between China and the EU is fundamentally different, as has been fully debated in the international arena, as well as in the media. Yet, despite being developed and developing nations, despite having very different energy sources and consumption patterns, both need to address the risk of climate change and related impacts. The challenges in China include: A need to strengthen the capacity of government to link energy and climate change issues in their day to day decision-making; The willingness and ability to link energy and climate change mitigation priorities with the Leadership s renewed focus on social development ( putting people first ) and widely acknowledge problem of limited and fast depleting natural resource base. The choice of promoting the car industry in the 1990s is illustrative of these dilemmas; The need to develop mechanisms for local Government accountability, strengthening local performance evaluations, also considering the adoption of wider auditing functions by Central Government (something on which the EU and Member States have interesting experience to offer). China and the EU could usefully join forces in defining policies, and perhaps most critically for China, strengthen the capacity of government to deliver social and environmental objectives.

3 Approach to Copenhagen: Roadmap of Global Emissions Reduction 1 Hu Angang, Professor School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University Summary: The agreement of global deal on emission reduction marks the critical success of UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen Presently, international community has not yet proposed a global emission reduction scheme acceptable to all countries worldwide as the previous principle of country classification is not practically feasible and cannot help achieve the goal of emission reduction. Therefore, we have proposed two major principles of country classification in the process of global emission reduction: the first one is 4-grouping principle based on Human Development Index (HDI), instead of 2-grouping principle as per developed countries and developing countries. The second one is that large pollutant emitter shall assume major responsibility in emission reduction. The aforementioned two principles can be seen as binding indicators of global emission reduction. We have analyzed responsibilities and obligations on emission reduction that China should assume according to the two principles, and suggested a roadmap of emission reduction as per net carbon sources and HDI in various parts of China. We believe that China can make further green contributions to the world through committing to take the obligations on emission reduction to help the agreement of global deal on emission reduction. Key words: Copenhagen emission reduction roadmap HDI net carbon sources green contributions Ⅰ. Foreword: Green Earth Summit and Possibility of Failure United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, and all participants will jointly seek a follow-up scheme for Kyoto Protocol, and propose the global target and action plan for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in Addressing climate change is a major challenge and the most uncertain factor for human development in 21 st century, and the largest global public product involving entire population in the world. As an international convention with weak binding power, Kyoto Protocol lacks not only necessary punishment measures, but also basic incentive mechanism. Even developed countries failed to realize the emission reduction target for 2012, so there is no need to mention that developing countries will not be obliged to take proactive measures to reduce emissions, which falls into the Paradox of Global Emission Reduction. Because no reduction or less reduction is the best choice for the short-term interest of every country, but all countries will suffer loss in the end, no matter which is a developing country or a developed country, among which, the developing countries will be the most harmed. Green Earth Summit in Copenhagen is set to break the paradox in order to resolve the institutional mechanism and action plan that is providing the global public product. This is the significantly historical opportunity for the globe to address climate change, whose profound significance will not truly appear until 2030 or This paper is one of the reports from the project How Will China Deal With the Challenge of Global Climate Change, funded by the Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance of the School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University.

4 Human s future results from its self-choice. There are not only many choices, but also great uncertainty. Copenhagen Summit is the last chance for human to heal the world, but it is possible to fail, which means the global agreement on emission reduction target and obligation cannot be reached and it will fall into a Global Disaster, and the entire human being will become the victim of climate change. China is not exceptional. It is not only the most populous country, but also the largest country with relatively fragile ecological environment in the world, so it may become the largest beneficiary of global public products and the largest victim of global climate change, no matter whether it will be a moderately developed country or even more developed by As stated in the report of UNDP 2008, developing the post-2012 world emission reduction scheme is our last chance to heal the world. 1 We may close the door by ourselves and miss the chance. Although the world has become a more and more smaller and closer Global Village, global international organizations and politicians from various countries failed to find out a mutual emission reduction target and scheme that can be accepted by over 200 countries and regions by far. They all go for their own interests, arguing whether to reduce emissions and how much one country shall share if it decides to reduce emissions centering on the 2 core principles of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the principle of mutual but differentiated responsibility, and the principle of promoting sustainable obligation for all countries, especially for developing countries), which not only failed to form cooperation and collaboration between developed countries and developing countries, but also becomes an incentive mechanism for more free hitchhikers. According to the respective interests and demands of various countries, it is very difficult to reach a global emission reduction agreement. At least, the agreement can never be reached without the consensus of large countries, such as the U.S., EU, Japan, China and India. The possibility of failure increases as Copenhagen Summit approaches. Its failure will mark the failure of the entire human being. Therefore, an international climate policy pattern and an emission reduction scheme that can be accepted by all countries must be proposed before Copenhagen Conference. The scheme must redefine the developed countries and classify the developing countries in order to clarify emission reduction obligations in future and dynamically implement the emission reduction agreement. Only by that can the global emission reduction agreement be reached at Copenhagen Conference. Ⅱ. Nation Classification Is the Key to Reach Global Emission Reduction Agreement Global emission reduction should meet or follow two key and supplementary principles, fairness and efficiency. But how to realize both of them at one time is quite difficult, for instance, what is fairness? How to make it? Is there any standard? Even a certain agreement is reached, there still lacks better classification and specific targets. Currently, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change divides over 200 countries in the world into 2 nation groups: developed countries and developing countries. Global emission reduction obligation shall follow the principle of sharing and provide developed countries with differentiated policies. However, the two-grouping method is rather rough in the real world. The 1 UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World,

5 definition of developed countries is relatively clear, mainly including 27 member states of OECD. But the definition of developing countries is a broader one, including more than 100 countries. Therefore, the obligation of reducing emissions becomes the obligation of minority countries, which is not in favor of global emission reduction. Developing countries refusal to participate in emission reduction also becomes an excuse for some developed countries to refuse to do so. Presently, besides the emission reduction scheme proposed by Kyoto Protocol, many scholars raised their own climate policy pattern and emission reduction scheme. Environmental Economics Project at Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University proposed 6 plans. Among them, the plans related to nation classification mainly are Graduation and deepening mechanism and a dynamic map of emission reduction participating countries. The essence of Graduation and deepening mechanism is to gradually assume obligation of reducing emissions according to dynamic development of the country, but it does not provide the standard of the obligation. The dynamic map of emission reduction participating countries specifies which country shall assume the responsibility for reducing emission according to emission stock, but it only takes emission stock into account, let alone emission flow, per capital, total emission, historic responsibility and real responsibility. Therefore, the type of emission reduction countries must be re-divided, taking emission stock and flow, per capital emissions and total emission, historic and real responsibility into full account. III. Two Principles of Global Emission Reduction Country Classification Emission reduction is a global action, we can classify more than 200 countries in the world into four groups following up the fairness and efficiency principle to replace the traditional two grouping classifications; to determine corresponding emission reduction contributions in terms of the proportion of world major emitting countries to the total emissions, the author of this article hereby suggests two principles: The first major principle is using the 4-grouping principle based on Human Development Index (HDI) classification to replace the 2-grouping principle of developed countries and developing countries. However, UNPD doesn t distinguish the countries at medium development level, which have the largest population and most countries in the world. Therefore, we should further distinguish the countries at medium human development level, i.e. to divide those countries into upper-middle human development level countries and lower-middle human development level countries. Here, we divide HDI into four groups: high HDI (higher than 0.8), upper-middle HDI ( ), lower-middle HDI ( ) and low HDI (lower than 0.5), i.e. one earth, four worlds. In the high HDI group, there are 70 countries with 1.6 billion populations, taking up 25.46% of the world s total. They are principal countries for emission reduction, and they should comply with the relative emission reduction principles of the United Nations. 1 More and more countries and people will enter high HDI group. According to Human Development Report 2005 published by UNDP, there were 57 countries and regions in high HDI group in 2003 with 1.21 billion populations, taking up 19.2% of the world s total. It means more and more countries or regions will take the obligation of unconditional emission reduction. 1 Data in The calculation of the HDI data is always deferred for two years.

6 Upper-Middle HDI group, including China, has a population of 2.44 billion, taking up of 37.41% of the world s total, and they should take over the responsibilities of global emission reduction as countries with conditional emission reduction. The so-called conditions depend on the gap between the HDI of that country and 0.8, the smaller the gap, the more the emission reduction shares. When they come into the high HDI group (higher than 0.8), they will become countries with unconditional emission reduction. For example, if China s HDI increases from in 2005 to 0.8 in 2010, China will automatically become the countries with unconditional emission reduction. The United Nations should establish specialized organizations to monitor the emission reduction measurements and effects of both countries with unconditional emission reduction and countries with conditional emission reduction, and report the results regularly. For other two groups, lower-middle HDI and low HDI, there are no rules on compulsive emission reduction obligations, but the United Nations should advocate those countries to carry out emission reduction voluntarily while taking its national conditions into account (Table 1). Table 1 One Earth, Four Worlds Classification (Scope HDI) of Group (by HDI) High Human Development Upper-Middle Human Development Lower-Middle Human Development <0.5 Low Human Development Conditions for Emission Reduction Unconditional emission reduction Conditional emission reduction Advocating emission reduction Advocating emission reduction Country Numbers Percentage (%) Population Numbers (million) Percentage (%) The second key principle is that large emitting countries take the main responsibility of reducing emissions. At present, the World Top 20 Emitters represent 75% of the total emissions (Table 2). They are not only main emitting countries, but also the main countries for reducing emissions. The higher one country s emissions proportion is to the world s total, the more contribution it should make. Its emission reduction limit should be assigned according to the negative externalities of global pollutant emission. The more pollutants one country produces, the greater obligation or emission reduction limit it should shoulder. Firstly it comes to the first group. The U.S. and China should take lead to reduce emissions, for their total emissions take up 38.14% of the world s total. Then it comes to the second group, including Russia, India and Japan, whose total emissions take up 14.23% of the world s total, and each of which takes up

7 over 4%. Finally it comes to the third group. Total emissions of the remaining 15countries take up 22.89% of the world s total. This principal is similar to the dynamic roadmap of emission reduction participating countries, but that country s HDI level should be taken into account. Among the 20 large countries, 14 belong to high HDI group, representing countries with unconditional emission reduction. Another 5 countries belong to upper-middle HDI group, representing countries with conditional emission reduction. Only India belongs to lower-middle HDI group, but it should take proactive measures to reduce emissions as the fourth largest emitter in the world. When it is qualified to upper-middle HDI group, it will belong to the country with conditional emission reduction accordingly. Table 2 World Top 20 CO 2 Emitters (2005) Total Percentage Rank Country HDI (Mt CO 2 ) (%) 1 United States China Russian Federation India Japan Germany Canada United Kingdom Korea Italy Mexico South Africa Iran Indonesia France Brazil Spain Ukraine Australia Saudi Arabia Sum World Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008 What needs to be pointed out is that HDI four grouping can be taken as a key principle of future transfer and payment worldwide, including letting high HDI countries become main provider of aids and technology transfer, providing direct ODA aid and free or low-cost technology transfer aids for countries with low HDI, offering international low-interest loan aids from international financial organizations and low-cost technology transfer aids for countries with lower-middle HDI, and providing technology transfer aids for countries with upper-middle HDI. Since UNDP publishes annual HDI data for every country in the world, and the data is targeting one country, but targeting all countries. Being simple and transparent, it becomes the main foundation to develop global emission reduction plan and economic aids. The above mentioned two principles can be taken as binding targets of global emission reduction. The emission reduction rate of one country depends on its development phase, which includes the emission reduction stock, per capita emission reduction and historic

8 responsibility, while HDI is a good measuring indicator and is better than the grouping indicator of per capita GDP, and should be considered as main foundation; it also relies on one country s total emissions, flow and real responsibility. World top 20 emitters will have a direct impact on the realization of global emission reduction target and action, so their emission reduction limit in future directly relates to total emissions. According to the above principles, Copenhagen Global Summit can identify the emission reduction roadmap for all countries in 2050 (mainly for high human development countries and 20 major emitting countries), clearly classify different countries and clarify the responsibilities and obligations of reaching global emission reduction agreement. IV. Emission reduction Roadmap: China Is Synchronized with the World Currently, China has implemented the most proactive policies on energy saving and emission reduction domestically, its domestic emission reduction policy is synchronized with the world. China s emission reduction rate is very challenging, which is hard to achieve. China s Eleventh Five-year Plan proposes to reduce GDP energy consumption per unit by 20% within five years, i.e. decrease the GDP energy consumption per unit from 1.22 tons standard coal to 0.97 tons standard coal. Based on the GDP growth rate during the Eleventh Five-year Plan period, total energy consumption nationwide should not exceed an annual growth rate of 5.2%, even though our GDP growth rate reaches 10% on average during the period. The energy consumption growth rate in both 2006 and 2007 and GDP growth rate have indicated that the range of adjustment is too large to complete. On the contrast, the EU just commits to reduce GDP energy consumption per unit by 20% 1 by 2020 within 15 years, but energy consumption and major pollutant emission begin to decline, which paves the way for the next administration. GDP energy consumption per unit dropped 1.23% in 2006, and 3.2% in 2007, which was the first time of energy consumption decline in recent years; the emissions of two major pollutants (sulfur dioxide and COD) began to drop in 2007, by 4.66% and 3.14% respectively. 2 Generally speaking, it takes a long time from policy making to attain practical effects. Therefore, it needs certain period from the issuance of policy and measurement for energy saving and emission reduction to attaining practical effects due to the inertia of infrastructures, so it is normal that the established targets didn t fulfilled in the first two years of the Eleventh Five-year Plan period. Given a longer historical point of view, significant decline of energy consumption in China has its historical references. During the Sixth Five-year Plan period, average GDP energy consumption in China reduced by 5.2%, 5.7% during the Eighth Five-year Plan period, and 8.0% during the Ninth Five-year Plan period. Therefore, it is possible to meet the objective of reducing annual GDP energy consumption per unit by 5.4% in What needs to be indicated is that, during the Eleventh Five-year Plan period, many things in China, such as the phase of economic development, industrial structure, urbanization level, etc. are different than before, which brings great challenges to energy saving and emission reduction. But international environment, political aspiration of government, economic investment and administrative motivation are also unprecedented in the period. So, China has the potential ability to achieve the 1 Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs): Climate Change Mutual Dependence of Energy and Climate Safety in China and Europe, Nov. 2007, Page Hu Angang & Yan Yilong: China s National Economy and Social Development ( ) Comments on the Tenth National People s Congress, March 1, 2008, Report of National Conditions of China, Special Issue 2/2008.

9 lower emission reduction goal during the Eleventh Five-year Plan period and even later phase of economic development. In fact, during the Eleventh Five-year Plan period, the aim to reduce energy consumption by 20% is not just a economic goal, but a political commitment made by Chinese government to its citizens and the world, which shows the political aspiration and resolution of Chinese government to save energy, reduce emissions, address climate change and develop low-carbon economy. It is the first positive attempt of China towards low-carbon economy, which is more significant in politics than in economics. However, China s international policy of emission reduction is actually not synchronized with the world. So far, China is still using its title of a developing country to refuse to accept the specific emission reduction objectives, without making any public commitment or contribution to the realization of global emission reduction agreement. If China publicly makes commitments to reducing emissions to the world, and the Central Government sets up national goal of emission reduction, the emission reduction progress in China will be greatly driven. The participation of China in international negotiations on climate change and global governance, and its acceptance of some climate rules can become the motivation and opportunities to better implement energy and environmental policies. What is more important is that serious climate change will make all countries confronted with the great pressure in emission reduction. If not actively making contributions to global emission reduction, it means we choose a war of public resources, which is the black war minus the shooting. In the long run, public commitments to reducing emissions is consistent with the Scientific View on Development and Construction of the Ecology Civilization proposed by the Central Government of China, and its connotation, objective and process are also consistent with those of ensuring national energy safety, addressing climate change and building a resource-preserving and environment-friendly society. Presently, a roadmap for global emission reduction is very clear, i.e.: For carbon dioxide equivalent to peak by For annual emissions to be less than 35 billion tons by Less than 20 billion tons by We believe that emission reduction roadmap of China should be synchronized with the world and classified into Three Steps or three stages: Carbon dioxide equivalent should reach the peak by Annual emission should be less than 2.2 billion tons by Significant reduction in carbon emission is achieved, reaching the emission level of By 2050, annual emission should be less than 1.1 billion tons. Total carbon emission is reduced to one-half of 1990 levels. Whether China makes public commitments to reducing emission and announces corresponding roadmap involves the major strategic decisions for the future long-term development of China. Its nature is whether the national interests of China conform to the benefits of human development, and whether the development direction of China is identical with that of human development.

10 Two problems are involved in the need for China to shoulder such a serious emission reduction task. Decisions made by present Chinese leaders will point out the future development direction of China. According to the indications of Deng Xiaoping, the Report to the Thirteenth National Congress of the Communist Part of China originally proposed the idea of Three-step Development Strategy in 1987: The first step is to double the 1980 GNP and ensure that the people have enough food and clothing. We had already attained the first objective by the end of the 1980s. The second step is to quadruple the 1980 GNP by the end of the 20th century and ensure that most people were living prosperous lives. This was achieved in 1995, ahead of time. The third step is to increase the per-capita GNP to the level of the medium-developed countries by the mid-21st century. Then the people will be well-off and modernization will be basically realized, then based on which to make further progress. So far, the goal of three-step development strategy has been fundamentally achieved, especially the goal of living prosperous lives. Facing challenges, Deng Xiaoping said out offspring may be clever than us and find the true solving methods. Present Chinese leaders should learn from Deng Xiaoping when it comes to make important decisions, identifying strategic direction for the national development and believing that out offspring is much clever than us. In the aspect of emission reduction, present Chinese leader would not realize the commitment of emission reduction, as a leader s tenure is around 10 years, so it is impossible for him to complete the emission reduction commitment during his tenure, and there is also not necessary for him to do so. But the vision he proposed needs continuous efforts of several generations, what needs him to do is only to make a commitment. From the grand view of the development of human history, the efforts to address climate change and realization of global emission reduction will accompany the arrival of a new industrial revolution, the Green Industrial Revolution. China shall grab the golden opportunity and become a leader, innovator and propeller of the fourth industrial revolution. Since 1750, world has seen 4 industrial revolutions: the first one was the Industrial Revolution in Britain, and China lost the chance. The second was the industrial revolution in the second half of 19 th century in the U.S., China lost the chance again. The third revolution was Information Revolution taking place in 1950s. Chinese leaders at that time acutely realized the significance of the historic change, and grabbed the important opportunity of the Information Revolution. With the advent of 21 st century, human comes across the fourth industrial revolution-green Industrial Revolution. Global emission reduction is deemed to mark the Green Industrial Revolution. If we lost the chance during the first and the second industrial industry, and we used to be a follower in the third industrial revolution, now we hope we can become a leader, innovator and propeller of the new industrial revolution, taking lead by standing in front of the same starting line with the U.S., EU and Japan. It can be predicted that the biggest international and domestic background for China s development in future will be climate change. Under such background, Chinese leaders will face 2 urgent issues. The first is how to realize China s economic transition, which means transformation from high carbon economy to low carbon economy. The second is how to engage in global control, which means transformation from domestic control to regional and global control.

11 The world tide is moving forward with unstoppable might. Those moving with the current will see prosperity, while those going against it will plunge to their doom. Current leaders of China shall realize the historic trend and try to be synchronized with the world and humanity. Thus, the roadmap of emission reduction of China should be roadmap of the world. Ⅴ. Two Binding Conditions Determine China Must Assume Its Responsibility for Reducing Emissions Presently, no matter Kyoto Protocol or other factors such as Bali Roadmap, the basic point is to divide over 6 billion people in over 200 countries on the world into two categories: developed countries and developing countries. This division method creates an illusion for Chinese leaders, that China is constantly a developing country. However, China is not a typical developing country, but is a country that is constantly progressing. The two major binding conditions below determine that China must assume its responsibility for reducing emissions: Firstly, the majority of Chinese are already at the high level or middle-upper level of human development, that is to say, the First World and the Second World. China not only has some features of a developing country, but also has some features of a developed country. Over 20 years ago, the majority of Chinese were at the level of the Third World and the Fourth World. But by today, the majority population has entered the First World and the Second World. According to 2003 data, China was no longer a typical developing country, with one fifth of its population at the so-called high level of human development, and another three fourths of its population approaching the Second World. According to our analysis of 31 regions nationwide based on HDI 4-grouping classification, human development level in China is one country, fur worlds. That is to say, in recent 20 years, the regional pattern for human development in China has seen fundamental changes, transforming from concentration in the Third World and the Fourth World to concentration in the Second World and the First World. During the 21 years from 1982 to 2003, the proportion of the First World population increased by 22.15%, the proportion of the Second World population increased by 72.53%, while the proportion of the Third World and the Fourth World population decreased by 53.32% and 41.36% respectively. The changes in the pattern promoted the leap of overall human development level in China, which means climbing up a step about every 10 years. 1 According to our preliminary estimate, 5 regions, such as Heilongjiang, Fujian, Jilin, Shandong and Hebei may enter the high level of human development from middle-upper level of human development by 2010, totaling 261,700,000 people, taking up 20.0% of the total population in China. By 2010, about 42% of the population nationwide will belong to the high level group of human development, and the proportion of population at middle-upper level group of human development will dramatically decrease. China s building well-off society in an all-round way will come to a new step. By 2020, China s HDI will reach under the condition that China s per capita GDP only reaches the world average level, and overall population will be at the high level group of human development in the world. This reflects the most important feature of China s development pattern: its per capital income level is relatively low compared with developed countries, but living conditions of its people reach considerably high level of human development. Meanwhile, HDI level of various parts of China will unevenly increase, among which, about 70% of the China: Building Well-off Society in an All-round Way, Hu Angang, Beijing, Tsinghua University Press, November 2007, Page

12 population will reach the First World, while the population in the Second World will decrease from over 70% to over 20%, and the Third World will be eliminated. If the target is well fulfilled, the population in many provinces such as Guizhou and Tibet, whose HDI currently are at the lowest level in the world, may step into or close to the second world. Looking from the international point of view, China is much more likely to meet its ambitious target of building a well-off society in an all-round way by From the perspective of emission reduction, China is more capable of shouldering global obligation (Table 3). Table 3 Proportion of Population in Different HDI Groups in the Country s Total (%) ( ) HDI Group The First World The Second World The Third World The Fourth World Country s Total Conditions for emission reduction Unconditional emission reduction Conditional emission reduction Advocating emission reduction Advocating emission reduction Note: HDI refers to Human Development Index. Proportion of population is the proportion of sum of regional population at the same world to the total population nationwide. Calculation data source: 1982 Population Census of the People s Republic of China (Computer Tabulation) compiled by Population Census Office under the State Council and Department of Population Statistics, State Statistical Bureau, People's Republic of China, Beijing: China Statistics Press, Major Statistics of the Fourth Population Census of the People s Republic of China (Manual Tabulation) complied by Population Census Office under the State Council. China Population Statistics Year Book 2004, State Statistical Bureau, Beijing: China Statistics Press, Transition of Human Development in Various Parts of China, Hu Angang, Zhang Ning, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Center for China Study of Tsinghua University, National Conditions Report, the 20 th Issue, May 8, According to the gross carbon sources and carbon sinks in all provinces (including autonomous regions and direct-controlled municipalities) of China 1, gross net carbon sources of all regions in China can be calculated. Top ten Chinese provinces in terms of net carbon sources are Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Hubei and Hunan, net carbon sources of which take up 70.32% of the nation s total. The ten provinces should be apportioned emission reductions by their negative externality to emission reduction nationwide. The first group among them includes Zhejiang, Liaoning, Guangdong and Jiangsu. The net carbon sources of the four provinces take up 21.42% of the world s total, and they belong to high HDI region, i.e. the first world, so they are unconditional regions for emission reduction. Hence, 1 Carbon source refers to the process, activity and mechanism resulting in the net release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Carbon sink refers to the process, activity and mechanism resulting in the net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

13 the four provinces should reduce emissions unconditionally and reduce much more missions than that required on the world roadmap of emission reduction (Table 4 & 5). Our primary assumption is that these provinces, as high HDI and net carbon sources regions, should be more ambitious in establishing roadmap of emission reduction, i.e. The first stage: carbon emissions reach the peak before 2012 at best. The second stage: significant reduction in carbon emissions is achieved, reaching the emission level of 1990 after The third stage: total carbon emissions are reduced to one-half of 1990 level by Three direct-controlled municipalities Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have net carbon sources taking up 5.78% of the nation s total. As they also belong to high HDI region, their roadmaps of emission reduction should be synchronized with that of the world. They are in the first group as well. Their roadmaps of emission reduction are as follows: The first stage: carbon emissions reach the peak before 2015 at best. The second stage: significant reduction in carbon emissions is achieved, reaching the emission level of 1990 after The third stage: total carbon emissions are reduced to one-half of 1990 level by The second group engages in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan. The net carbon sources of the six provinces take up 48.89% of the nation s total, so they fall into high emission region. However, as high and medium HDI regions, they are conditional regions for emission reduction. The emission reductions that they should take depend on the gap between the level of their net carbon sources and the national average level as well as the gap between their HDI and 0.8. The third group involves in Yunan, Qinghai and Tibet. The three provinces have negative net carbon sources, belonging to negative emission region. The absolute value of net carbon sources takes up 2.23% of the gross of other provinces and cities. They should be granted ecological compensation from other provinces. The remaining 15 provinces, cities and regions, except Guizhou, belong to the fourth group, the net carbon sources of which take up 31.96% of the world s total. Therefore, they can be classified into high and medium HDI region and are conditional regions for emission reduction. They will become unconditional regions for emission reduction from conditional regions for emission reduction at a time when they enter high HDI group from this group (higher than the 0.8 group). Guizhou currently belongs to the lower-middle HDI region, and is not subject to compulsory obligations on emission reduction. While its net carbon sources rank 12 nationwide, Guizhou should be encouraged to carry out emission reduction voluntarily as per its local practical situations. It will become a conditional region for emission reduction and conforms to corresponding roadmap of emission reduction at a time when its HDI reaches high and medium human development level. Table 4 Carbon Sources, Gross Carbon Sinks, Net Carbon Sources and HDI of Various Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities in China (Unit: 10,000 tons)

14 Region Gross Carbon sources Gross Carbon Sinks Net carbon sources HDI (2003) Hebei Shandong Shanxi Henan Jiangsu Guangdong Liaoning Zhejiang Hubei Hunan Anhui Guizhou Shanghai Sichuan Heilongjiang Shaanxi Inner Mongolia Jilin Fujian Beijing Tianjin Xinjiang Chongqing Gansu Ningxia Jiangxi Guangxi Hainan Yunnan Qinghai Tibet Source: calculated according to the data in Research on China s Carbon Balance Trading Framework, edited by Niu Wenyuan, Beijing, Science Press, Table5 HDI Group The First World Transition of Human Development Level in Various Regions of China ( ) Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Guangdong, Jiangsu The Shanghai, Beijing Shanghai, Beijing, Heilongjiang, Fujian,

15 Second World Tianjin, Liaoning, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shanxi, Hainan, Shandong Jilin, Shandong, Hebei, Hainan, Xinjiang, Hubei, Shanxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Anhui, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, Yunnan Guizhou, Tibet The Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Fujian, Xinjiang, Third Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Hubei, Inner World Guangdong, Jilin, Shanxi, Mongolia, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Guangxi, Shandong, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Inner Gansu, Yunnan, Qinghai, Mongolia Guizhou The Henan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Tibet Fourth Shaanxi, Xinjiang, World Ningxia, Sichuan, Anhui, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan. Guizhou, Tibet Note: Regional pattern of human development is classified according to HDI figures of various regions in 1982, 1990, 1999 and The classification standard is specified in Table 1. Calculation data source: UNDP, China Human Development Report 1997, 2002 and 2005, China Financial & Economic Publishing House. State Statistical Bureau, 1983 China Statistics Yearbook, China Statistics Press Population Census of the People s Republic of China (Computer Tabulation) compiled by Population Census Office under the State Council and Department of Population Statistics, State Statistical Bureau: China Statistics Press, Hu Angang, Zhang Ning, Transition of Human Development in Various Parts of China ( ), Chinese Academy of Sciences and Center for China Study of Tsinghua University, National Conditions Report, the 20 th Issue, May 8, According to data from Stern Review, annual per capita emissions in 2005 was 7 tons. Annual per capita emissions of developed economies differentiated from 10 tons in Japan to 22 tons in America. In contrast, annual per capita emissions of developing countries ranged from a minor figure in the poorest country to 2 tons in India and then to 6 tons in China. Owing to this and suppose the world population would increase to 9 billion, then it means the world s annual per capita emissions would be 2 tons by The latest data from World Bank 2008 show that annual per capita carbon emissions of China in 1990, 2000 and 2006 were 2.1 tons, 2.6 tons and 3.9 tons respectively, while the world s figures were 4.1 tons, 4.0 tons and 4.3 tons accordingly. In accordance with the roadmap of emission reduction of China (See Table 6), China is much likely to reach the peak of per capital emissions in Suppose China would have a population of 1.4 billion in 2050, then annual per capita carbon emissions of China in 2050 is expected to decrease to about 2 tons in 1990, or even a lower level. Table 6 Annual Per Capita Carbon Emissions of China and the World (Unit: ton) China World

16 Source: World Bank Database, Secondly, China has become the second largest CO2 emitter in the world and a country with large quantities of pollutants emitted. According to UNDP statistics, total CO2 emissions in 2004 in China took up 17.28% of the world s total. According to the calculation of IEA, China will become the largest CO2 emitter by 2030, taking up 27.32% of the world s total. In 2005, emissions of 6 largest economies took up over 70% of the world s total, and still close to 70% by 2030 (Table 7). Currently, China has becomes the largest populous country, the third largest economy, while the largest coal consumer and SO2 emitter, and the second largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter. Among the G8+5 countries, China and the U.S. are the largest emitters in the world. Emissions of G8 take up 62% of world s total greenhouse gases emissions, with China 19% and India 4%. CO2 emissions reported provided by Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, MNP listed China the largest emitter in the world, taking up about 24% of the world s total, and 21% for the U.S., 12% for 15 members of EU, 8% for India and 6% for Russia. 1 China has become one of the biggest emitters in the world from every perspective, so it shall assume the responsibility for reducing emissions. Table 7 Proportion of Carbon Dioxide in the World (%) ( ) China European Union United States Japan Russia 9.26a India Sum Note: a. is the data of 1992 Source: source of data: World Bank, World Development Indicator 2006, CD-ROM; European Union comprises 11 countries dada source: IEA, World Energy Oultlook 2007, IEA; reference scenario (according to current situation, and no related policy restricting emissions is adopted); EU has 25 member states. We can clearly explain why China must assume its obligation that it should do from two dimensions, although current leaders don t realize this yet. The reason is that they lack information for overall consideration. 1 MNP, China now no. 1 in CO2 emissions; USA in second position,

17 Currently, China s decision-making of foreign policy about climate change is a decision-making under asymmetric information. If leaders can get a clearer picture of the harm of climate change and China s national position, then it will be clearer that for what kind of issue China should assume its responsibility. If China is so near-sighted and not clear about its responsibility, and refuses to make commitment of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases at Copenhagen Conference, then India will not make its, either. If large developing countries, such as China and India, whose total emissions take up 20% of the world s total, fail to make their commitments, then no matter how hard EU members try, it will turn out to be in vain. Ⅵ. Conclusion: Promoting Realization of Global Emission Reduction Agreement and Making Green Contributions to the World Since reform and opening-up policy was adopted, China has made significant contributions to human development in three aspects: the contribution to global economic growth, to global trade growth and to reduction of poverty population, which is also the most important one. The three contributions have been noticed and recognized by the world, especially the contribution made to poverty relief. General Secretary Hu Jintao stated in the Report to the 17 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2007 that China s position by 2020 would be: The country will be still more open and friendly to the outside world and make greater contributions to human civilization. 1 In several decades in future, China needs to make two new contributions to the development of human being. One is green contribution, and the other is knowledge contribution. Green contribution will be China s biggest contribution to the human being in 21 st century. China should take the lead among developing countries to become the first to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and become the largest country with new forest carbon absorption in the world, announce its roadmap of emission reduction, and try to reduce its carbon emissions to half of the 1990 level by In the short run, Chinese leaders shall take full advantage of Global Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen as a window to make commitments of China s responsibility for reducing controls as soon as possible, announce its emission reduction roadmap, promote realization of global emission reduction agreement, and become one of the leaders of global climate control. In the long run, Chinese leaders shall review the development of low carbon economy and China s obligation of emission reduction for the sake of human development and from the perspective of long-term insight, lead the country to fulfill economic and control transition and make solid green contribution to human development. China s Energy and Environmental Strategy Lin Boqiang, Professor China Center for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University 1 Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Central Committee of CPC, also states: China s development has not only enabled its people to move steadily toward prosperity and happiness, but also contributed substantially to the growth of the world economy and the progress of human civilization.,please refer to Hu Jintao: Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Strive for New Victories in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in all Respects, published on Documents of the 17 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, P9, Beijing, People Press, 2007.