Establishing a Transitional Framework for Generation Development in Central America NESTOR SANCHEZ I BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER

Transcription

1 Establishing a Transitional Framework for Generation Development in Central America NESTOR SANCHEZ I BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER

2 HIGH GENERATION COSTS We all know high power generation costs are due to: FUEL COSTS INEFFICIENT ASSETS

3 FUEL LANDSCAPE IN CENTRAL AMERICA Thermal power generation impacts the cost of energy Source: Platts

4 POWER PLANTS AGE IN CENTRAL AMERICA 30% 52% of the Central America installed capacity comes from old plants 25% 20% 15% 21% 26% 21% 21% 10% 5% 10% 0% 0-10 years years years years More than 40 years Power plants over two decades old are considered relatively inefficient More efficient Less efficient Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy; NREL is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. March 2015

5 PLANT EFFICIENCY DE-GRADATION BASED ON AGE OF POWER PLANT (OCGT) Impact of age on efficiency and Cost of Energy Efficiency 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Current Plant age 1960s Plant Efficiency de-gradation based on AGE OF POWER PLANT (OCGT) Cost of energy EFFICIENCY COE/$MWh With more recent technologies, higher efficiency can be achieved as age affects the cost of energy Better efficiency can lower emissions, fuel consumption, and costs, thus contributing to the plant s bottom line

6 FUTURE GOALS FOR RENEWABLES IN CENTRAL AMERICA 100% 90% 80% 600MW 12% Projected Growth 47% 400MW In Renewables 800MW 23% 650MW 70% 60% 2100MW 2100MW 40% 2700MW 50% 40% 30% 35% 35% 20% 10% 0% 1% 3% 1% % Coal Gas Thermal Water Renewables

7 RENEWABLES AND GAS GENERATION IN PROGRESS Renewables Renewables Projects Chinchayote wind farm Cerro de Hula Wind Farm Expansion Gas (future) Renewables Projects Providencia Solar PV Project Gas Projects LNG to Power Renewables Projects Cerro Azul Wind Farm La Vikinga Wind Farm Cerro Jefe Wind Farm La Miel Wind Farm Veraguas I Wind Farm Toabré Wind Farm La Rosa de los Vientos Wind Farm Antón Wind Farm Penonomé II wind park Nuevo Chagres Wind Farm Portobello Wind Farm Gas Projects Gas to Power Panama project Renewables Projects Vientos de la Perla wind project Altamira wind project Altamira wind project Campos Azules wind project Orosí Wind Farm

8 POWER BRIDGING STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION DESPITE AN ABUNDANT SOLAR RESOURCE Average solar insolation in Central America is kwh/m²/day (average in the USA is 4-5.5). High potential for solar, but low implementation in practice. Explained by regulatory and market barriers, but this is changing. Most Central American countries now have ambitious renewable targets.

9 POWER BRIDGING STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION HYBRID POWER: THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS Diesel engines Reliable power 24/7 Solar photovoltaics Low cost of energy Battery Storage* Enhanced grid stability Minimizes the cost of electricity for customers by offering the optimum combination of Fast response Low cost of capacity Low specific consumption No fuel Low maintenance Zero emissions More efficient system Can reduce overall cost Fuel Savings Diesel and Solar power Sustainability *Possibly combined with Battery storage

10 POWER BRIDGING STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION AGGREKO S HYBRID OFFERING REMOVES MAJOR HURDLES TO SOLAR DEPLOYMENT Previous Hurdles for Solar High Capital Cost Aggreko s Offering: Re-deployable Solar Power Power Purchase Agreement: Customers buy energy delivered by Aggreko, no upfront cost. Price of solar kwh includes capex amortization and maintenance 20-year commitment required Minimum contract length: 5 years Multiple electricity vendors Potentially unreliable power One-stop shop: Aggreko By providing the diesel plant and designing the integration of the solar plant, Aggreko can commit to power quality and reliability Flexible solar power to save on fuel with no upfront costs

11 POWER BRIDGING STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION MODEL PROVIDES KEY RESULTS ON SYSTEM DESIGN AND OPERATION 6000 Optimised System Cost optimisation is obtained with: 5.8 MW diesel plant 8.2 MWp photovoltaic plant 3 MW / 3 MWh battery system Dispatch plots Mar :00:00 5-Mar :00:00 6-Mar :00:00 Dispatch plots: Power Diesel Power Renewable Power Storage Power Demand Excess Power Time of year Insights on Operation Preferred management strategies and expected operation patterns are provided by the model to allow for a thorough assessment. Unit: Percentage of the total load over a year

12 POWER BRIDGING STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION AGGREKO S HYBRID INTRODUCES AN OVERALL BILL REDUCTION OF 18% FOR THE UTILITY Cost per kwh ($/kwh) 37% savings on diesel with the hybrid solution Customer savings of 18% Diesel cost Aggreko solar charge Aggreko diesel plant In this case study, 18% of the energy cost is reduced using the Hybrid solution by displacing expensive diesel. CO₂ emissions are reduced by 37%. This percentage usually ranges between 10-20%, depending on diesel fuel costs, on-site solar irradiance, duration of contract, utility load profile, and so forth. Full diesel operation Hybrid operation

13 PRESENT OF UTILITIES AND FUTURE $$$$$ Traditional Power Plant Present 60 days to COD for a 40 MW plant Future Demand growth High electricity prices Baseload issues Inefficient assets The cost-effective Bridge solution Demand coverage Environmentally-friendly and cheaper generation Reliability More efficient asset

14 TRANSITIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR GENERATION DEVELOPMENT WITH BRIDGE POWER SOLUTIONS Bridge Solution No long-term contracts Turnkey solution (Plug and play) Scalable solutions (1MW-200MW) Speed of deployment Fuel flexibility (Gas, HFO and Diesel) New fleet Improved Efficiency and Diesel/Solar Hybrid Technology Built in weeks!

15 TRANSITION STRATEGY Install a more efficient modular power plant 1 Case Study 1: Replacing with higher efficiency technology using SAME FUEL 2 Case Study 2: Replacing with higher efficiency technology using DIFFERENT FUEL (HFO, LPG, LNG)

16 Fuel A Fuel Supply & Management B Modular Power Generation C Transformation & distribution Power Fuel Supply, handling, & storage Turnkey Design, Scalable MWs Installation of a new permanent power plant

17 THE MOST EFFICIENT MODULAR MOBILE POWER Diesel HFO Gas Solar Hybrids Efficiency: 41.1% Efficiency: 40.8% Efficiency: 43.1% Solution: Turnkey Plant Availability: 100% Plant Availability: 100% Plant Availability: 100% 0-20MW Few months De-rate curve: >35deg C De-rate curve: >35deg C De-rate curve: >35deg C Solar insolation: All of this on a $/MWh rental basis

18 CONCLUSION What we know Central America is facing a needed transformation of its energy landscape to a green revolution to achieve a sustainable future for the sector How can we help? Support Your Long-Term Plans with solutions that allow a smooth transition between the current landscape and the future of energy in Central America Be your flexible Power Generation Partner Save you $$$ on operational costs and CAPEX

19 Working towards a more efficient future for Central American power Nestor Sanchez Business Development Manager Nestor.Sanchez@aggreko.com