2 ND World Renewable Energy Forum May 29-31, 2004 Bonn, Germany

Transcription

1 RENEWABLE ENERGY in AMERICA Michael T. Eckhart President, Solar International Management President, American Council On Renewable Energy 2 ND World Renewable Energy Forum May 29-31, 2004 Bonn, Germany

2 U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel 2002 Solar <1% Nuclear 8% Natural Gas 24% Geothermal 5% Biomass 46% Petroleum 39% Renewable 6% Wind 2% Coal 23% Hydroelectric 46% Source: AEO 2004 tables (released in December 2003) based on US energy consumption. Overall breakdown Table A1 (Total Energy Supply and Disposition), and Renewable breakdown Table A18 (Renewable Energy, Consumption by Section and Source). Source: NREL 2

3 Key Challenges for Energy Supply FIN RES ECON RISK ENVIR RENEWABLES + 0/- + + NUCLEAR? + - +/- COAL NAT GAS - +/?? +/- Source: American Council On Renewable Energy,

4 Key Challenges for Energy Supply FIN RES ECON RISK ENVIR OVERALL RENEWABLES + -/ NUCLEAR? + - +/- -? COAL NAT GAS - +/?? +/- +? Source: American Council On Renewable Energy,

5 US Oil Imports Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, (million barrels per day) Source: DOE/EIA-0383(2003) Annual Energy Outlook 5

6 Changes in Atmospheric Concentration CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 0 Ð A Thousand Year History Source: NREL 250 Source: 1000 IPCC 1200 Third Assessment 1400 Report 1600 (2001) Atmospheric concentration CO 2 (ppm) Atmospheric concentration N 2 O (pbb) The Time for Responsible Action is Now 6

7 Renewable Energy in America SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER GEOTHERMAL Resource Potential Regional: Renewable Energy Resources Economics Politics Yields Sate-Based Solutions 7

8 Renewable Portfolio Standards CA: 20%by 2017 *NV: 15% by 2013 MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010 IA: 105 MW WI: 2.2% by 2011 ME: 30% by 2000 MA: 4% by 2008 *CT: 4% by 2008 *NJ : 4.0% by 2008 PA: varies by utility *AZ: 1.1%by 2007 *NM: 10% by 2011 TX: 2,880 MW by 2009 Source: IREC, DSIRE Database State RPS Non-punitive goals RPS in utility settlements 8

9 Public Benefit Funds for Renewables Cumulative $95 M $2,048 M $10 M $111 M $22 M $127 M $85 M $80 M $20 M MA: $383 M RI: $10 M CT: $338 M NJ: $279 M DE: $11 M $234 M 15 State Funds = $3.8B by 2012 Source: IREC, DSIRE Database 9

10 Corporate Tax Credits & Deductions UT: 10% Credit $50 K MD: 20-30% GB Credit NC: 35% Credit $250 K OK: $ per kwh 10 yrs. (> 50 MW) Source: IREC, DSIRE Database Multi-technology RE Fuels/Vehicles 10

11 Personal Tax Credits MT: $500 NY: 25% $3,750 RI: 5% CA: 7.5% MD: 15% $2,000 AZ: 25% $1,000 NC: 35% $10,500 HI: 20 35% Multi-Technology Source: IREC, DSIRE Database RE Fuel Vehicles 11

12 Net Metering Rules Net metering is available in 38 states + D.C. State-wide net metering for certain utility Net metering types offered by one or more individual utilities Source: IREC, DSIRE Database 12

13 PV Grants & Rebates ( $/W or % of costs) $3.90/$2.25 $3.20 $4 25% $2 $4-5 $5-6 50% $5 SE-PA: $4/W+ $1/kWh for 1 yr. $5.50 Source: IREC, DSIRE Database Utility PV Rebates 13

14 US Wind Energy

15 U.S. Wind Energy U.S. Wind - Installation by Year Source: 15 AWEA MW

16 Where? Ð Installations by period by state Total: 1,493 MW Total: 4,891 MW CA (1,413) TX (35) MN (35) CA (630) WA (244) OR (260) WY (285) CO (223) NM (207) TX (1,258) MN (539) KS (114) IA (472) PA (129) OK (176) > 1000 MW 300 Ð 1000 MW 100 Ð 300 MW 10 Ð 100 MW Source: 16 AWEA

17 Sales of Wind Turbines in the U.S Kenetech USWP Vestas Zond Enron Wind Mitsubishi Bonus Gamesa GE Wind NEG Micon MW MW Source: AWEA 17

18 U.S. Major Wind Farm Developers (> 100 MW) Developer MW installed FPL Energy 2,583 GE Wind 529 AEP 316 Cielo Wind Power 238 Shell Wind/ Shell Renewables 232 Zikha & Midwest Renewable 154 Edison Capital 123 Source: AWEA 18

19 U.S. Wind Energy U.S. Wind - Cumulative Capacity Source: 19 AWEA MW

20 US Solar PV

21 PV Applications Grid-Connected with EV Charging Substation - Sacramento, CA Carport - Austin, TX 21

22 Example Calculation Ð Simple Payback PAYBACK (Years) 1. No Incentives 103 Ð Net Metering 28 Ð % Buy-Down 14 Ð 22 Residential Rooftop 2.5 kw $8.00/Wac Installed $20,000 Best location 4,800 kwh/year 4. Tax Abatements 12 Ð Green Tags 11 Ð Enviro Values

23 PV on Commercial Buildings Commercial Rooftop - Boston, MA BIPV - 4 Times Square, NYC 23

24 PV Financing Ð Commercial Rooftop Photovoltaic Building Economics: Comprehensive Perspective Benefits in $ $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 8 Year Payback w/ no financing 1 Year payback with 20% down, 80% financing State Credit Depreciation Fed Tax Credit Roof Mat'l Value HVAC Savings Demand Savings Energy Savings 24

25 PV Financing Ð Present Value Driven Photovoltaic Building Economics: Comprehensive Perspective Benefits in $ $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 8 Year Payback w/ no financing 1 Year payback with 20% down, 80% financing State Credit Depreciation Fed Tax Credit Roof Mat'l Value HVAC Savings Demand Savings Energy Savings 25

26 U.S. PV Applications kwp PV Shipments by Market Sector 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Other Electric Utility Transportation Industrial Government Commercial Residential Source: EIA

27 US Ethanol Production

28 Fuel Ethanol Production U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Source: Renewable Fuel Association Millions of gallons

29 Ethanol Production Capacity by State Total Production Capacity: 3,699 million gallons per year NM 15 ND 34 MN 392 WI 172 SD 422 MI 45 NE 537 IA 867 IL IN KS 110 MO 100 KY 24 TN 65 > 500 million gallons per year (mgy) 250 Ð 500 mgy 100 Ð 250 mgy 10 Ð 100 mgy 29 Source: Renewable Fuel Association

30 Major U.S. Fuel Ethanol Producers Producer State Capacity Share (mgy) Archer Daniels Midland IL/IA/NE 1,070 32% /MN/ND Aventine Renewable Energy IL/NE 135 4% Cargill, Inc NE/IA 118 4% VeraSun Energy Corp SD 100 3% New Energy Corp IN 95 3% Abengoa Bioenergy Corp NE/KS/NM 85 3% MGP Ingredients, Inc IL/KS 78 2% A.E. Staley TN 65 2% Chief Ethanol NE 62 2% AGP NE 52 2% 30 Source: Renewable Fuel Association, May 2004

31 U.S. Clean Fuel Requirements Federal RFG CARB Phase 2 RFG Federal Oxygenated Fuel State Fuel Program Source: Clean Fuels Development Coalition 31

32 Ethanol Represents Small Sliver of U.S. Petroleum Pie Billions of Gallons per Year Gasoline Ethanol Ethanol

33 World Energy Supply Scenario Exajoules Royal Dutch Shell Sustained Growth Scenario 1996 TODAY Surprise Geothermal Solar New Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil & NGL Source: Royal Dutch Shell, Traditional Biomass Coal LS-CD-b

34 All Renewables Targets % Total Renewables 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Global Perspectives A3 Today (Global) Shell Dynamics (Global) Navigant (Global) Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) GHG (Hoffert) EIA Reference (US) Germany IEA World Energy Outlook Ref European Union Today (US) Aitkin (US) GPRA05 EERE (US) Source: NREL 34

35 All Renewables Targets Commitment % Total Renewables 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Global Perspectives A3 Today (Global) Shell Dynamics (Global) Navigant (Global) Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) GHG (Hoffert) EIA Reference (US) Germany IEA World Energy Outlook Ref European Union Today (US) Aitkin (US) GPRA05 EERE (US) 35

36 American Council On Renewable Energy 36

37 ACOREÕs Convening Role ÒRenewable Energy in AmericaÓ Ð Ð Ð Annual Conference National policy July 2003, Washington DC Jim Woolsey and Boyden Gray Amory Lovins ÒPower-Gen Renewable EnergyÓ Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð Trade show Customer focused JV with Pennwell Communications Las Vegas and Orlando March 1-3, 2004, Las Vegas ÒRenewable Energy Finance ForumÓ Ð Ð Ð High level finance conference JV with Euromoney June 23-24, 2004, New York City ACOREÕs Organizing Conference, July

38 Renewable Energy Finance Forum Ð Wall Street June 23-24, 2004 New York City Keynote: George E Pataki, Governor of New York Sean Harrigan, President, CalPERS Sessions on: Corporate commitments Project debt Project equity Carbon finance Venture capital Institutional investors Public policy drivers Green building finance 38

39 Additional Information American Council On Renewable Energy Michael Eckhart, President Telephone: Rob Pratt, Chairman Ken Locklin, Co-Chair, Finance Committee Wolfgang Palz, Co-Chair, International Committee Judy Siegel, Co-Chair, International Committee Peter Varadi, Liaison to International Advisory Board 39