Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

Transcription

1 National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 11 December 2018 If you are new to the webinar: To join from PC, Mac, Linux, ios or Android: To join from telephone : Dial in: (US Toll) or (US Toll) Enter code: Please put your phone on mute to avoid interfering with presenters We welcome comments, questions and discussion at the end of the webinar

2 National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 11 December 2018

3 Outline Welcome Rachel McGuire, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status, seasonal forecasts & outlooks David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater Brian McCallum, USGS Streamflow forecasts Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC ACF Reservoir Conditions - Cynthia Donald, USACE Summary and Discussion

4 CURRENT DROUGHT STATUS, SEASONAL FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS David Zierden

5 El Nino I was wrong

6 Heavy and Frequent Rainfall December 6 Flood Warnings Rainfall last 14 days

7 CPC Winter forecast Rainfall Last 60 days

8 Current Drought Status

9 7-Day Quantitative Precip. Forecast

10 Current Sea Surface Temperatures Nino 3.4 above 1.0 C All Nino regions near or above 1.0 C

11 Nino 3.4 Forecast

12 NOAA Winter Outlook (Dec. Feb.)

13 Seasonal Drought Outlook

14 Take Home Messages The long awaited El Nino conditions are in place and impacting weather patterns Frequent and strong Southern Branch disturbances have brought much above normal rainfall to all parts of the ACF in the last two months Entire ACF basin drought-free currently, moderate drought spreading in South Florida Rainfall above normal at all time scales 7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain over the northern Gulf Coast with the next system later this week. Pacific Ocean has transitioned to El Nino, 0ver 80% chance it continues into Spring CPC winter forecast (Dec. Feb.) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall Weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast

15 STREAMFLOWS AND GROUNDWATER Brian McCallum

16 Real-time stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

17 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

18 Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee River near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee River near Dahlonega ( )

19 28-day Average Streamflow Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

20 28-day Average Streamflow Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Chattahoochee at Columbus ( )

21 28-day Average Streamflow Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

22 28-day Average Streamflow Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint River at Bainbridge ( )

23 28-day Average Streamflow Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee ( )

24 Real-time Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief

25 Groundwater Status Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

26 Groundwater Status Dougherty County 11K003 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

27 Summary-Paul Ankcorn Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the above normal to high range. 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the much above normal range. 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in much above normal range. 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in much above normal range. Groundwater levels range from normal to high across the ACF Basin.

28 STREAMFLOW FORECASTS APALACHICOLA WATERSHED SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER Jeffrey Dobur

29 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Whitesburg West Point Columbus Lovejoy December 11 th 2018 January 11th 2019 Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

30 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center 10% 33% 20% 43% 37% 19% 57% Whitesburg Lovejoy Vinings December 11 th 2018 March 11 th 2019 Above Normal Near Normal 47% 34% West Point Carsonville Below Normal Columbus WF George 17% Albany Columbus 54% 29% Woodruff 49% 17% 34% Blountstown

31 Summary-SERFC 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast Above Normal Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.

32 USACE ACF Reservoir Conditions December 11, 2018 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG

33 BUILDING STRONG

34 BUILDING STRONG

35 BUILDING STRONG

36 BUILDING STRONG

37 BUILDING STRONG

38 All projects are currently above guide curve. Evacuating the flood pool at each project to prepare for the next event. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks. BUILDING STRONG

39 Apalachicola Bay Water Quality: Salinity Tower destroyed by Hurricane Michael Tower destroyed by Hurricane Michael Tower damaged by Hurricane Michael

40 Questions? Comments? Discussion?

41 Acknowledgements Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC Cynthia Donald, USACE Additional Information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Moderator Rachel McGuire, AU-WRC Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

42 Thank you! Next briefing Tuesday, January 8, 2019, 1:00 pm EDT Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: Moderator: Rachel McGuire