UNFCCC COP16 CMP6. Summary

Transcription

1 UNFCCC COP16 CMP6 29 November 10 December 2010, Cancun, Mexico Summary Sustainably ensuring the sound survival of humankind and the planet s ecosystems requires an ultimate target of limiting the rise in average global temperature to 1.5 C. Build on the basic structure of the Kyoto Protocol and agree on developed country reduction targets that are ambitious and effective, and on mitigation actions by the major emitters among the developing countries. Accelerate the speed of negotiation bearing in mind that if agreement is not reached on a comprehensive international framework by COP17, then a gap will inevitably arise between the Kyoto Protocol s first and second commitment periods. What must be done at Cancun is to bring about a balanced set of decisions on the key elements for a legally binding and comprehensive agreement at COP17. In view of common but differentiated responsibilities, the developed countries have the responsibility to give priority to substantive discussion on their next-period reduction targets. Japanese government must quickly enact the Basic Law to Combat Global Warming, formulate specific policies and measures capable of achieving a 25% reduction using domestic means, and assume a flexible negotiating position without insisting on a single legal framework in which all major countries participate. 1

2 From below 2 C to 1.5 C! If the increase in global average temperature since preindustrial times cannot be limited well below 2 C, it is possible that the sound survival of humankind will be jeopardized by irreversible global environment damage. Ensuring the sustainability and soundness of humankind and the planet s ecosystems requires an ultimate target of limiting the average temperature increase below 1.5 C. The IPCC s Fourth Assessment Report states that to keep the increase in global temperature from preindustrial times C, we must have CO 2 emissions peak out by 2015 at a concentration of ppm, and by 2050 reduce emissions 50 80% of the 2000 level. For that purpose it will be necessary for developed countries to reduce their emissions 25 40% of their 1990 levels by 2020, and for emerging nations in Asia, Latin America, and other regions to take substantive mitigation actions relative to the baseline. We should be aware that as our ultimate target the world must limit the increase in average global temperature to 1.5 C from the preindustrial level, and should set the policy target for the time being to below 2 C. Limitation and Reduction Target, and Institutional Framework, for 2013 and Beyond Following are the limitation and reduction target and the institutional framework for 2013 and beyond as conceived by CASA. 1. Make a 1.5 C increase in average global temperature the ultimate target, and confirm that the policy target for the time being is below 2 C. 2. Have an institutional framework that carries over the basic structure of the Kyoto Protocol, including legally binding force, total numerical national targets, and compliance systems. 3. Confirm reduction targets under which total world CO 2 emissions quickly peak out, emissions are reduced at least 50 85% from the 1990 level by 2050, and developed countries cut emissions by at least 80%; as a target for 2050, gain a commitment to a legally binding reduction target for developed countries including the US to go at least 40% below the 1990 level. 4. Major developing countries whose emissions are growing should also pledge 2

3 mitigation actions relative to the baseline so as to meet the below 2 C target. 5. Establish an effective MRV (measurable, reportable, and verifiable) system. 6. Provide for community-based adaptation measures that are aware of the importance of ecosystems and take the environment into account, and for an adaptation insurance system which accommodates farmers in vulnerable regions and low-income people. 7. A system for funding from developed to developing countries which is predictable, trustworthy, continuing, and provides sufficient funding, as well as a technology transfer system. 8. Set up Kyoto mechanisms such as joint implementation and the clean development mechanism which have no loopholes, do not cover nuclear power or carbon capture and storage (CCS), and which have rectified regional disparities and other problems. Accelerate the Negotiations The Copenhagen Accord reached at COP15 last year was exceedingly inadequate as it had no peak out deadline, made no mention of long-term targets, and in particular had no commitments on medium-term targets for the developed countries as a whole or for individual countries; also, no decision was made on the final legal form of the accord for the next-period framework. However, progress was made in that there is recognition of the 2 C target, and mitigation actions by developing countries will be vetted internationally; especially mitigation actions receiving assistance will be subject to international MRV; and there was a specific proposal for funding assistance to developing countries ($30 billion by 2012, $100 billion by 2020). The parties must overcome the inadequacies of the Copenhagen Accord without setting back the progress it made. So far (as of November 17, 2010) 139 countries have indicated their approval of the Copenhagen Accord. Even though these countries GHG emissions account for over 80% of total world emissions, negotiations since Copenhagen have hardly progressed beyond that point. Agreement on a comprehensive international framework at COP16 in Cancun is already seen as difficult, and parties are aiming for an agreement at COP17 in South Africa, but as the situation now stands, even an agreement at COP17 is questionable. Agreement must be reached at COP17 in order to prevent a gap from arising between the first and next commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol. The parties must see 3

4 that if agreement is not reached at COP17, that gap will inevitably arise. We must therefore get negotiations moving faster. For that purpose, instead of wasting time on questions such as what should be discussed, or what issue to take up first, the parties must quickly launch substantive negotiations aimed at shaping agreement on major themes. Especially in view of common but differentiated responsibilities, the developed countries have the responsibility to give priority to substantive discussion on their next-period reduction targets. What Must Be Done at Cancun At Cancun the parties must bring about a balanced set of decisions that will serve as a foothold for a comprehensive agreement at COP17 on the key elements of that agreement. At Cancun the parties must also decide on the process leading to a legally binding agreement. At COP15 they were unable to decide on the negotiating process to be followed after the conference, and they should not commit another failure, as when they had to start the first AWG after COP15 by first deciding on that process. Two kinds of balance are needed for decisions made at Cancun: Balance between the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) and the Ad Hoc Working Group under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), and balance on key elements among the AWGs. It is evident that dealing with climate change requires an effective framework in which all countries participate, and necessitates not only ambitious reduction targets by the developed countries participating in the Kyoto Protocol, but also reduction targets for the US, which is not participating, and mitigation actions by developing countries with increasing GHG emissions such as China, which are not obligated to reduce emissions. This is a problem of balance between the next-period reduction targets of developed countries including the US, and the mitigation actions of major developing countries, as well as balance between the Convention AWG and the Kyoto Protocol AWG. Additionally, the Convention AWG needs balance among Bali Action Plan elements, while the Kyoto Protocol AWG needs resolutions not only on the next-period reduction targets of developed countries but rules on calculating the amount of sinks, especially rules on forest management accounting, and rules to ban carryover of "hot air" in order to avoid any loopholes. 4

5 Based on scientific knowledge, there is a difference of 1 billion tons between the 40% reduction from the 1990 level in 2020, and the commitments (reduction targets) currently set forth by developed countries (the gigaton gap). A major problem is how to close this gigaton gap by COP17. Further, the next-period reduction targets, mitigation actions, and framework agreed upon at COP17 must be legally binding. Almost all the countries at the Tianjin AWG supported this. What Japan Must Do to Prepare for COP16 What the Japanese government must do in preparation for COP16 is to quickly enact the Basic Law to Combat Global Warming, and formulate specific policies and measures capable of achieving a 25% reduction using domestic means. Deciding on specific policies for a 25% reduction by Japan would achieve great progress for negotiations at COP16. Additionally, insisting on a single legal framework in which all major countries participate, or hard-line negotiating positions such as We cannot approve commitments for the Kyoto Protocol s second commitment period or We cannot approve an extension of the Kyoto Protocol must be abandoned so as to adopt a flexible negotiating position that does not insist on just one protocol. The important things are getting a reduction obligation for the US and mitigation actions by major developing countries; it should be possible to guarantee a single legal framework in which all major countries participate even with two protocols. Japan s 25% GHG Emission Reduction Target can be Achieved Domestically CASA developed 'CASA 2020 Model' which combines a bottom-up technology model and a top-down macroeconomic model to consider potential reductions of fossil-fuel-based CO2 emissions in Japan by We assume that nuclear power plants will be phased out after 40 years operation, and established additionally except plants the government already approved. This model estimated the amount of CO2 emissions in the following three scenarios: 1) Business as Usual (BaU) scenario. 2) Carbon tax scenario: 10,000 yen/ct or 2,727 yen/co2t-eq, equivalent to additional 7 5

6 yen/litter to the gasoline price. 3) CASA technology scenario: The greater use of already available technologies and the accelerated introduction of renewable energies. The result of the estimation shows that direct CO2 emissions in 2020 will be reduced by 1.8% (BaU scenario), 5.2% (Carbon tax scenario) and 25.6% (CASA technology scenario) from 1990 levels respectively. Under BaU scenario and CASA technology scenario we analyzed, no significant differences are observed on the real GDP, disposable income, unemployment rate and crude steel production. Thus, it can be concluded that the mitigation measures considered in our analysis do not result in deterioration of the economy. Climate Change Is Accelerating How Much Time Is Left? In the summer of 2010 countries around the world were assaulted by floods, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events. In Japan as well, except for southern Japan temperatures were the highest since 1946 when the government started collecting statistics on regional averages, and there was a sharp rise in heat stroke deaths. According to an analysis by the University of Tokyo Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, one of the causes of this summer s extreme heat is the long-term rise in sea water temperature for the past approximately 30 years, and one cause of that was global warming due to greenhouse gases. The area of arctic sea ice this year was the third-lowest after 2007 and Climate change is accelerating and our remaining time is running out quickly. We have no time to waste on fruitless discussion. Contact in Cancun: Mitsutoshi Hayakawa (Japanese) TEL: QYJ06471@nifty.ne.jp Yuri Okubo (Japanese, English, German) okubo@casa.bnet.jp 6