Drought and Coastal Ecosystems: Monitoring and Modeling Using the Coastal Salinity Index
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1 Drought and Coastal Ecosystems: Monitoring and Modeling Using the Coastal Salinity Index National Conference on Ecosystem Restoration New Orleans, LA August 30, 2018
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3 Drought a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, often resulting in a water shortage for some activity, sector, or the environment Meteorological Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Agricultural Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI) Crop Moisture Index (CMI) Hydrological Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
4 What does drought look like on the coast? Source: USFS Source: Dan Tufford/CISA Source: Ed Christopher/USFWS Source: Stan Kirkland/FL FWC Source: Chandler Green/CISA
5 Presentations 1. Coastal Drought and the Need for a Coastal Salinity Index Kirsten Lackstrom 2. Monitoring Drought along the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean Using the Coastal Salinity Index Matt Petkewich 3. Linking the Coastal Salinity Index with Freshwater Inflows to Characterize Salinity in Gulf of Mexico Estuaries Chris Swarzenski 4. Predicting Long Term Performance and Risk of Oyster Reef Restorations Under Deep Uncertainty in Climate and Management Policy Simeon Yurek
6 Coastal Drought and the Need for a Coastal Salinity Index Kirsten Lackstrom and Lauren Rouen Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA) University of South Carolina National Conference on Ecosystem Restoration August 30, 2018
7 Outline Introduction Coastal Carolinas Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Ecological drought: definition and framework Estuarine ecosystems in the Carolinas
8 Drought in the Southeast U.S., 2000-present Source: US Drought Monitor
9 Coastal Carolinas Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)
10 Drought and coastal ecosystems Drought matters! One component of the weather-climate continuum Extremes, flooding, drought busters Impacts Salinity is a key stressor Information needs Limited use of existing drought information and tools by ecosystem and resource managers Limited use of ecological/coastal information in drought monitoring systems
11 Ecological Drought a deficit in water availability that drives ecosystems beyond thresholds of vulnerability, impacts ecosystem services, and triggers feedbacks in natural and/or human systems Source: Crausbay et al. (2017)
12 Application to estuarine systems and landscapes Exposure Freshwater timing and availability Sensitivity/adaptive capacity Tolerance of, and adaptability to, varying salinities Impacts
13 Exposure Drought
14 Exposure: landscape characteristics
15 Exposure: landscape characteristics North Inlet-Winyah Bay Yadkin-Pee Dee River (Piedmont estuary) Waccamaw River (Coastal Plain estuary)
16 Exposure Sea-level rise Mean sea level trend, Charleston, SC Source: NOAA/NOS Source: NC King Tides Project
17 Exposure Freshwatersaltwater interface
18 Exposure Coastal populations and water use Source: Source: NOAA, National Coastal Population Report (2013)
19 Sensitivity/Adaptive Capacity Salt Marsh Tidal Freshwater Wetlands Source: SC DNR Source: Dan Tufford
20 Sensitivity/Adaptive Capacity Blue crab response Source: Michael Childress
21 Sensitivity/Adaptive Capacity Upstream water regulation Impoundments Lake Tillery Dam, NC Source: USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center-NC Office Source: Dan Tufford
22 Impacts: estuarine conditions and ecosystem services Salt marsh dieback Neuse River Estuary Significant phytoplankton blooms and fish kills develop in upper estuary, (Wetz et al., 2011) Source: Georgia Coastal Ecosystems LTER Reduced presence of Vibrio vulnificus in oysters with increased salinities (Wetz et al., 2014; Froelich et al., 2012)
23 Impacts: estuarine conditions and ecosystem services Susceptibility to disease Business impacts and losses Black gill Source: esearch/majorprojects/black-gill/ Hematodinium perezi Source: Michael Childress
24 Drought and coastal ecosystems: recap Can a unique index be developed to characterize coastal drought? Drought matters! One component of the weather-climate continuum Extremes, flooding, drought busters Impacts Salinity is a key stressor Information needs Limited use of existing drought information and tools by ecosystem managers Limited use of ecological/coastal information in drought monitoring systems
25 For more information Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA) salinity.html Contact Kirsten Lackstrom at Coastal Estuaries and Lagoons: The Delicate Balance at the Edge of the Sea USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center
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