Energy and commodity markets in sustainable perspective
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1 EEF.DEL/48/13 13 September 2013 ENGLISH only Energy and commodity markets in sustainable perspective Professor Leonid Grigoryev, Chair of Global Economy HSE Chief Advisor, Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation 21 st OSCE Economic and Environmental Forum Prague, Czernin Palace, September 11-13, 2013 Dynamics of real commodity prices = = = = Oil Steel Copper Grains Source: OECD, World Bank, Institute for Energy and Finance 2 1
2 GDP growth (IMF forecast), by country groups Source: IMF 3 Industrial production , by country Source: World Bank 4 2
3 Energy intensity of GDP , toe / th. 2005$ (PPP-based) Source: World Bank, BP 5 Global CO2 emission , by country Source: BP 6 3
4 Energy Perspectives till 2040 Growth after Recession is still low in the OECD So far Glob is losing against Global Warming Elasticity are very informative Forecasting till 2040 non shock approach Competition in realty: RES COAL GAS/Shale Global and Russian Energy Outlook (non official) Co-authors: The Energy Research Institute of The Russian Academy of Sciences Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation
5 GDP and primary energy consumption average annual growth, , % GDP (PPP) Primary energy consumption World 3,1 4,3-0,8 4,0 1,7 3,0-1,1 3,3 OECD 2,8 2,3-3,8 2,1 1,6 0,6-4,8 0,5 USA 3,1 2,2-3,5 2,3 1,6 0,2-4,9 0,0 EU-27 2,4 2,3-4,3 1,1 0,5 0,4-5,8-0,2 Japan 2,2 1,4-5,5 1,9 1,9 0,2-8,2 0,0 Non-OECD 3,6 7,4 3,2 6,4 2,0 5,7 2,4 5,7 Brazil 2,3 4,2-0,3 3,7 3,2 4,0-0,4 5,3 Russia* -2,5 7,1-7,8 4,0-1,5 1,4-5,2 2,3 India 5,5 8,0 8,5 6,9 5,1 6,2 8,4 5,2 China 9,5 11,3 9,2 9,2 4,2 10,6 6,7 9,2 Energy consumption-to-gdp elasticity World 0,56 0,69 1,35 0,83 OECD 0,55 0,28 1,26 0,27 Non-OECD 0,55 0,77 0,77 0,90 Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD; * - Russian economic growth since Oil and gas consumption average annual growth, , % Oil consumption Natural gas consumption World 1,7 1,5-1,1 1,8 2,5 3,0-2,2 4,0 OECD 1,5-0,1-4,2-0,3 2,6 1,6-2,8 2,8 USA 1,4-0,2-3,7-0,4 1,7 0,2-1,6 3,6 EU-27 0,7-0,1-5,0-2,7 2,5 1,6-6,5-1,5 Japan 1,1-1,5-9,3 2,1 3,8 4,3-6,7 10,1 Non-OECD 1,9 3,9 2,7 4,2 2,4 4,6-1,6 5,2 Brazil 2,9 3,1 1,2 4,4 10,7 10,0-19,5 13,2 Russia -3,8 1,9-3,2 4,6 0,3 1,9-6,3 2,2 India 6,0 4,1 5,2 4,1 11,3 7,0 23,4 2,3 China 6,4 7,1 3,5 7,5 4,9 18,6 10,1 17,1 Oil/gas consumption-to-gdp elasticity World 0,54 0,36 1,37 0,45 0,82 0,70 2,68 1,01 OECD 0,53-0,04 1,12-0,16 0,92 0,67 0,75 1,36 Non-OECD 0,55 0,53 0,86 0,66 0,69 0,62-0,52 0,82 Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD 10 5
6 Coal consumption & electricity generation average annual growth, , % Coal consumption Electricity generation World 0,9 5,1-0,5 4,8 2,9 3,8-0,8 3,8 OECD 0,3 0,7-10,4-0,1 2,5 1,6-4,1 1,1 USA 1,3 0,4-12,0-4,1 2,4 1,1-4,1 0,9 EU-27-2,6-0,9-11,8 3,6 1,8 1,2-4,9 0,5 Japan 2,2 3,2-15,5 4,6 2,7 1,9-5,9-0,4 Non-OECD 1,5 8,4 5,1 7,0 3,6 7,0 3,1 6,6 Brazil 0,5 2,7-14,9 7,6 3,5 5,0 0,0 6,1 Russia -3,7-0,4-8,4 0,7-0,4 2,6-4,5 2,4 India 4,4 7,2 9,2 5,8 7,3 5,7 5,5 6,6 China 3,5 11,1 7,4 8,4 8,5 13,1 7,1 10,0 Coal/electricity-to-GDP elasticity World 0,29 1,20 0,65 1,21 0,94 0,90 0,94 0,95 OECD 0,09 0,29 2,76-0,04 0,88 0,67 1,09 0,51 Non-OECD 0,43 1,14 1,60 1,10 1,02 0,95 0,97 1,04 Source: BP, World Bank, IMF, OECD 11 World primary energy consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by region 1 2 6
7 World primary energy consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, by fuel, 2010, Structure of global consumption of energy sources by sector, mtoe Electricity and heat Construction, agriculture Industry Other sectors Non-energy consumption Transport Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other RES mtoe Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
8 CO2 emissions in the world ERI RAS / AC forecast, by country group, Natural gas consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by region 16 8
9 Natural gas production ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by region 17 Projected price range of equilibrium oil price ERI RAS / AC forecast, , $2010 per barrel 18 9
10 Weighted average price of gas ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by regional markets 19 Coal consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by region 20 10
11 RES consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by region 21 RES consumption ERI RAS / AC forecast, , by source 22 11
12 Inter fuel competition these days Renewables are coming but not immediately Coal Renaissance after Recession in EU Carbon prices down Unexpected turns in Shale gas has been getting its share in the USA and Australia, but slow in EU Debates in Europe: between gas RES - coal Pragmatic economics after Recession Global energy prices , $ per boe Source: BP 24 12
13 European carbon price (EUA) and price of gas/coal switching for power stations, Source: Thomson Reuters, AC estimates 25 Gas-to-Coal Switching in European Union, 2010 Source: BP 26 13
14 RES-based (incl. hydro) electricity generation in Europe (OECD) by source, th. GWh, and share of total, % Source: IEA 2 7 Coal-based electricity generation in Europe (OECD) 2012, share of gross generation, % Source: IEA 28 14
15 Structure of electricity generation in Europe (OECD) 2000, 2010, 2012, % of gross generation Source: IEA 29 Global prospects of shale gas : resources and costs Shale gas resources (US EIA, 2013), tcm Shale gas resources (IEA,2012), tcm Production costs estimates, $ per th. cm (country/author) North America (USA/IEA, 2012) Asia Pacific 45.5 (China 31.6) 57 (China 36) (China/IEA, 2012) Latin America MENA Sub-Sah. Africa Europe (IEA, 2012), (Oxf. Ins. for Ener. Stud., 2010) East Europe/CIS World Source: US EIA, IEA, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Geny, 2010) 30 15
16 Shale gas production in 2040 Baseline and Shale breakthrough scenarios, ERI RAS / AC forecast Source: ERI RAS 31 Prospective areas for renewable energy development in Russia Wind (>5 m/s) Solar (>2000 hours/year) Biofuels (>60% of the area) Geothermal power (perspectives areas) 32 16
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