Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets
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1 Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets Guy Caruso Senior Advisor JOGMEC Seminar 7 February 2013 Landscape is Changing Even as We Sit Here Today - US Projected to reach 90% Energy Self-Sufficiency But Still Part of a Global Market - Changing Demand Growth Centers - New Emerging Players but Old Institutions - Transformational Impact of Unconventionals - Policies Based on Resource Scarcity and Rising US Demand Need to Be Revisited - Environmental Issues Still Loom Large 2
2 UNCONVENTIONAL GAS 3 U.S. Shale Gas Resources
3 U.S. shale gas production from the major plays has increased 60 fold shale gas production (bcm) Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2010 estimated) 5 Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections Shale gas Non-associated offshore Tight gas Coalbed methane Associated with oil Non-associated onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski January 21,
4 Increased Production Allows U.S. to Transition from Net Importer to Net Exporter of Natural Gas Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, June 25, Natural gas price projections significantly lower due to an expanded shale gas resource base natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) per million BTU 12 History Projections 10 Updated AEO2009 AEO2010 (2011$) AEO2011 AEO Source: EIA 8
5 CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SWITCH TO NATURAL GAS: From , United States CO 2 emissions went down by 7% due to coal to gas fuel switching, power generation efficiency gains & GDP (MER) Total primary energy demand CO 2 emissions increased renewables output Gas demand Gas fired power output Coal demand Coal fired power output Renewables 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% % change in selected indicators in the United States, Developing Unconventional and Technically Challenging Resource Prospects Translates to Higher Prices Oil Shale Source: IEA, USGS, Nomura Equity Research 10
6 UNCONVENTIONAL OIL 11 mb/d Global supplies increase by 9.3 mb/d Iraq and US support growth in production World Oil Supply Capacity Growth OPEC Crude Capacity Growth Global Biofuels Growth Total Net Change Onshore 83% Deepwater Production (2017) Shallow Water 9% Deepwater 8% OPEC NGLs Growth Non-OPEC Growth (ex Biofuels) Nigeria 2% Angola 2% Other Deepwater 2% Brazil 2% mb/d Global Liquids Growth Crude NGLs Biofuels Total US Light Tight Oil Non-Conv Processing Gain 4.7 Iraqi capacity accounts for 20% of liquids growth North American oil sands and light, tight oil (LTO) production account for 40% Deepwater production increases from 6% in 2011 to around 8% by OPEC* Non-OPEC * OPEC crude is capacity additions Total Global Refinery processing gains included in Non OPEC 12
7 kb/d Changing Supply Picture US Light Tight Oil Raises Non-OPEC Supply Estimates Non-OPEC Supply - Revisions North America China Middle East OECD Europe Oth Asia OECD Pacific Africa Latin America FSU Total Non-OPEC kb/d US Crude and Condensate Output 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,140 1,320 1,530 1, Total Light Tight Oil Gulf of Mexico Alaska Other L48 Crude and Condensate Downward revisions in due to unplanned outages, project delays, difficult investment climate in some MENA countries. Upward revisions due to uptick in E&P spending (rises by 22% in 2011, 10% in 2012), rosier N. American outlook LTO revised up by 500 kb/d from June MTOGMR NGL supply revised up because producers are targeting liquids-rich tight oil plays. Source: IEA Oil Market Report 13 The US is the only country that will become less dependent on imports Gas Imports 100% Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries 80% European Union 60% Japan % 20% 0% China United States India Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports Source: IEA WEO 2012 the United States swims against the tide 14
8 000s b/d 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Forecast through 2016 shows Continued Growth Source: EIA, Excludes NGLs and Other Liquids 15 Tight oil is an increasing portion of US oil production US Oil Production, millions of barrels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 16
9 The Bakken Eagle Ford Story 000 b/d Rising Shale Liquid Output in U.S Eagle Ford Bakken Source: Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) April 3, Can the Bakken Story be Replicated (Again and Again)? 000 b/d Surging U.S. Shale Liquid Production (oil and NGL) Woodford Niobrara Marcellus 1500 Lower Monterey 1000 Granite Wash Eagle Ford 500 Barnett Bakken Avalon/ Leonard Source: Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) April 3,
10 Tight Oil is Competitive with Other Growth Options Range of breakeven prices for resource themes Oil Sands - Integrated Oil Sands - Bitumen Ultra-Deepwater Deepwater Offshore Onshore L48 Core Tight Oil US$/bbl (Brent) Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: Wood Mackenzie, April 3,
11 US oil and gas production mboe/d Unconventional gas 10 5 Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil Source: IEA WEO 2012 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States 21
12 Realizing the full promise of shale resources is not a certainty and US domestic policy is important Technical/Economic Challenges All shales are not alike; application of drilling/reservoir fracturing technology & operational experience matters Steep decline rates require ongoing investment and drilling; and repeated fracturing Cost escalation and low commodity prices limit prospects Infrastructure build-out and refinery rationalization Environmental/Regulatory/Societal Challenges Well design and management of surface chemicals/materials are the best barriers to protecting water aquifers Disclosure of components of fracking fluids should/is happening Scale of water use, treatment & disposal are challenging Community Issues infrastructure, land use, population density, noise, haze, road congestion and repair are real and need to be addressed Regulation and enforcement are essential 23 Potential Implications for U.S. Market With a leveling or decline in demand, new supply growth will shape the market; continued and significant reductions in selected foreign (non Canadian) imports is very likely Spare refining capacity (as currently configured) will encourage export of petroleum products New infrastructure could distribute domestic crudes east and west as well as south Significant U.S. product exports could slow refining expansion in Latin America and elsewhere Economics/price spreads (and policies?) will determine how refineries make crude choices Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy with Allies and Neighbors Source: Energy Security Analysis, Inc. & CSIS May
13 Unconventional Resources are Distributed Globally IEA Estimate of Global Natural Gas Resources 25 Unconventional gas production in leading countries, 2035 United States China Canada Australia India Russia Argentina Mexico Indonesia Algeria European Union Source: IEA WEO % 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% bcm Shale Coalbed methane Tight Share of unconventional in total production (top axis) Unconventional gas is expected to account for almost 50% of increase in global gas production between 2011 and
14 Middle East oil export by destination mb/d China India Japan & Korea Europe United States By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade Global Implications Some obvious near term winners and losers But global impacts are more nuanced and less clear Strength of US refining sector could swamp new construction in Latin America Expansion of global shales could increase volume, reduce prices & improve environment Single commodity economies could become more efficient and diverse 28
15 THANK YOU 29
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