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1 Delphi IX Foecast and Analysis of the Noth Ameican Automotive Industy VOLUME 3: MATERIALS June, 1998 Published by Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation Univesity of Michigan Tanspotation Reseach Institute 291 Baxte Road Ann Abo, MI

2 COPYRlGHTlEDlTlON INFORMATION This eseach is self-suppoting. Futue studies ae dependent on evenue fom the sale of this publication. O Copyight 1998 by The Univesity of Michigan. All ights eseved. No pat of this book may be used o epoduced in any manne whatsoeve without witten pemission except in the case of bief quotations embodied in citical aticles and eviews. The Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation (OSAT), a division of the Univesity of Michigan's Tanspotation Reseach Institute, focuses on the futue of the intenational automotive industy. Its oveall objectives ae to povide academic eseach, infomation esouces, industy analysis, and communication foums that meet the continually changing needs of the intenational automotive and automotive-elated industies. In addition, OSAT seves as a link between the Univesity and its many extenal communities, including industy, labo, govenment, and the media. Fo futhe infomation, please contact: Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation Univesity of Michigan Tanspotation Reseach Institute 291 Baxte Road Ann Abo, MI Tel: (734) Fax: (734) Pinted in the United States of Ameica. Fist edition published UMTRI

3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authos wish to acknowledge the many team membes whose effots conitibuted to the completion of this epot. Robet Andei, with guidance fom Buce Belzowski, acted as poject manage. Wendy Bahydt handled coodination fo the Technology volume, and maluscipt eview fo all thee volumes. Betsy Folks povided data base suppot. Tina Jeminez and Cathy Rowe contibuted essential gaphics design and desktop publishing skills to the Technology and Maketing volumes, espectively; thei effots ae geatly appeciated. Kaen Sheas povided secetaial suppot to the poject manage. Benad Swiecki povided the seemingly thankless, but eve so impotant, hous of baseline data gatheing. Diana Douglass contibuted outstanding coodination, gaphics design, and desktop publishing skills fo the Mateials volume. Diana also lent he expetise to the Technology ;and Maketing volumes to assue fomatting and design consiste?ncy. He patience, detemination and skills added geatly to the oveall quality of the Delphi IX, fo which the team is appeciative. The Delphi team would also like to acknowledge the effots of ou panelists who spent untold thoughtful, eflective and-we ae sue-sometimes fustating hous completing ou detailed questionnaies. Finally, we would like to thank ou initial financial suppotes in the Delphi pocesusat affiliates and Delphi IX subscibes. These companies ae listed om the following pages. Dave E. Cole, Diecto Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation Co-autho, Volume 11: Technology Geald F. Londal Co-autho, Volume II: Technology Jeffey M. Davis Autho, Volune I: Maketing Michael V. DiBenado Co-autho, Voluie Ill: Mateials Bett C. Smith Co-autho, Volume Ill: Mateials

4 CORPORATE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation (OSAT) would like to thank its Affiliates and Delphi IX subscibes fo thei geneous suppot of this poject. Ou Affiliates povide annual, unencumbeed funding fo initiating nonfunded wok and public sevice activities. Delphi IX subscibes contibuted diectly to this poject by coveing substantial stat-up costs and suggesting potential questions and panelists. This poject could not have been stuctued, initiated, o completed without thei suppot. Delphi IX Subscibes Aisin Takaoka Co. Ltd. Amcast Automotive Ameican Plastics Council Battelle Baye Copoation Boeing Noth Ameican Bog-Wane Automotive CKR lndusties Inc. Coope Tie & Rubbe Company Denso Manufactuing Michigan Inc. Depatment of lndusty Canada Dow Chemical Economic Dev. Patneship of Alabama Fiat Auto R&D High Pefomance Goup Inc. IMRA Ameica Inc. JPE Inc. Koea Automobile Manufactues Association KPMG Peat Mawick Libbey-Owens Fod Company Lobdel-Emey Inc. L N Steel Company Moog Automotive Motoola Inc. National Renewable Enegy Laboatoy NEC Technologies Inc. Nippon Steel USA Inc. Nissan Reseach & Development Inc. Owens Coning PPG lndusties Inc. Pomocion y Contol, S.A. de C.V. Saint-Gobain Copoation Sheldahl lnc. SinteCast Ltd. Timken Company TMB lndusties Toyota Technical Cente USA Inc. Tim Maste Inc. United Technologies Automotive Usino Sacilo SA U.S. Steel Goup Yazaki Noth Ameica Inc. OSAT Affiliates 3M Automotive Industy Cente Aeoquip Copoation Alcan Aluminum Copoation ALCOA Ameican Axle & Manufactuing Inc. Ashland Chemical Inc. A.T. Keaney Inc. BMW of Noth Ameica Inc. Chevon Reseach & Technology Co. Chysle Copoation Coopes & Lyband Dana Copoation Deloitte & Touche LLP Denso Intenational Ameica, Inc. Detoit Edison Company Donnelly Copoation DSM Copolyme Eaton Copoation Electonic Data Systems Enst & Young Fel-Po, Inc. Fod Moto Company Feudenbeg-NOK GE Automotive Geneal Motos Copoation Genesee Aea Focus Council The Goodyea Tie & Rubbe Company Hewlett-Packad Company Honda of Ameica Mfg., Inc. IBM Copoation I T Automotive, Inc. James N. Gay Company Johnson Contols, Inc. Lea Copoation LucasVaity Light Baking Systems MascoTech, Inc. Mazda R&D of Noth Ameica McKinsey and Company, Inc. Meito Light Vehicle Systems Inc. National Renewable Enegy Laboatoy Oacle Copoation Peteson Sping Paxai Inc. Pince Copoation QAD Inc. Robet Bosch Copoation Samsung Motos Inc. Siemens Automotive Copoation Tenneco Automotive Texton Inc. Towe Automotive Inc. TRW Automotive UAW-GM Human Resouce Cente Valeo Noth Ameica The Woodbidge Goup

5 Delphi IX is a detailed analysis of foecasts by thee sepaate panels of automotive industy executives, diectos, manages and enginees who ae expet in automotive technology, mateials, o maketing. These individuals wee selected because they occupy positions of esponsibility within the automotive industy and have stategic insight into impotant industy tends. In many cases they ae in a position to influence these tends. This epot, published in thee volumes, is ninth in a seies of in-depth studies of long-ange automotive tends, which began vvith Delphi I in 1979 and continued with Delphi II in 1981, Delphi Ill in 1984, Delphi IV in 1987, Delphi V in 1989, Delphi VI in 1992, Delphi VII in 1994 and Delphi Vlll in The Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation (OSAT) collects the data and analyzes, intepets, and pesents the esults. Since the foecasts ae those of the panelists, Delphi IX is essentially the industy's own consensus foecast. These foecasts ae not "cystal ball" pedictions but, athe, well-infomed estimates, pespectives and opinions. Such foecasts pesent an impotant basis fo business decisions and povide valuable stategic planning infomation fo those involved in all aeas of the Noth Ameican automotive industy: manufactues; sevice, component and mateials supplies; govenment; labo; public utilities; and financial institutions. We believe these to be the most authoitative and dependable Noth Ameican automotive foecasts available. A key point to keep in mind is that the Delphi foecast pesents a vision of the futue. It obviously is not a pecise statement of the futue but athe what the industy thinks the futue will likely be. As an industy-wide suvey, the poject also allows individual companies to benchmak thei vision and stategy against consensus industy opinions. The Delphi method: geneal backgound The study is based on the Delphi foecasting pocess. This pocess equies that expets conside the issues unde investigation and make pedictions about futue developments. Developed by the Rand Copoation fo the U.S. Ai Foce in the late 196s, Delphi is a systematic, inteactive method of foecasting based on independent inputs egading futue events. The Delphi method is dependent upon the judgment of knowledgeable expets. This is a paticula stength because, in addition to quantitative factos, pedictions that equie policy decision ae influenced by pesonal pefeences and expectations. Delphi foecasts eflect these pesonal factos. The espondents whose opinions ae epesented in this epot ae often in a position to influence events and, thus, make thei foecasts come tue. Even if subsiequent events esult in a change of diection of a paticula foecast, this does not negate the utility of the Delphi. This epot's pimay objective is to pesent the diection of technological, mateials, and maketing developments within the industy and to analyze potential stategic impotance. Pocess The Delphi method utilizes epeated ounds of questioning, including feedblack of ealieound esponses, to take advantage of goup input while avoiding the biasing effects possible in face-to-face panel delibeations. Some of those biasing effects ae discussed in this except fom a 1969 Rand memoandum:

6 The taditional way of pooling individual opinions is by face-to-face decisions. Numeous studies by psychologists in the past two decades have demonstated some seious difficulties with face-to-face inteaction. Among the most seious ae: (1) Influence, fo example, by the peson who talks the most. Thee is vey little coelation between pessue of speech and knowledge. (2) Noise. By noise is not meant auditoy level (although in some face-to-face situations this may be seious enough) but semantic noise. Much of the "communication" in a discussion goup has to do with individual and goup inteest, not with poblem solving. This kind of communication, although it may appea poblem-oiented, is often ielevant o biasing. (3) Goup pessue fo confomity. In expeiments at Rand and elsewhee, it has tuned out that, afte face-to-face discussions, moe often than not the goup esponse is less accuate than a simple median of individual estimates without discussion (see N. C. Dalkey, The Delphi Opinion. Memo RM 5888 PR, p. 14, Rand Cop., 1969). In the Delphi method, panelists espond anonymously, peventing the identification of a specific opinion with any individual o company. This anonymity also povides the comfot of confidentiality, allowing panelists to feely expess thei opinions. Among othe advantages, this pocess enables espondents to evise a pevious opinion afte eviewing new infomation submitted by othe panelists. All paticipants ae encouaged to comment on thei own foecasts and on the combined panel esults. The infomation is then funished to the panel paticipants in successive iteations. This pocedue educes the effects of pesonal agendas o biases and assists the panelists in emaining focused on the questions, issues and comments at hand. Panel chaacteistics and composition The vey essence of a Delphi suvey is the caeful selection of expet espondents. The selection of such expets fo this Delphi suvey is made possible by the long-standing association between The Univesity of Michigan's Office fo the Study of Automotive Tanspotation and epesentatives of the automotive industy. Lists of pospective expets wee assembled fo Technology, Maketing and Mateials panels. Membes wee selected on the basis of the position they occupy within the automotive industy and thei knowledge of the topic being suveyed. They ae deeply knowledgeable and boadly expeienced in the subject matte. The names of the panel membes and thei eplies ae known only to ou office and ae maintained in the stictest confidence. Replies ae coded to ensue anonymity. The identity of panel membes is not evealed. Upon publication of the final Delphi epot, all questionnaies and lists of panelists ae destoyed. The chaacteistics of the 266 panel membes ae as follows: 21 pecent of the Technology Panel was composed of CEOs, pesidents, o vice pesidents; 18 pecent wee diectos; 37 pecent wee executives, manages o supevisos; 16 pecent wee enginees (chief, assistant chief and staff); and 8 pecent of the panel was made up of academic specialists and consulting technical-engineeing specialists. The Maketing Panel was composed of 33 pecent CEOs, pesidents, o vice-pesidents; 3 pecent diectos; 29 pecent manages; and 8 pecent academic and consulting maketing specialists. Among Mateials panelists, 6 pecent wee CEOs, pesidents and vice pesidents; 26 pecent wee diectos; 41 pecent manages and supevisos; 16 pecent engineeing specialists; and 1 1 pecent academic and consulting mateials specialists. Appoximately 29 pecent of the Delphi IX panelists wee employed by vehicle manufactues; 63 pecent by components and pats supplies; and 3 pecent wee othes (i.e. specialists, consultants, academics, and epesentatives of associations and publications).

7 Pesentation of Delphi foecasts and analyses Data tables. When a question calls fo a esponse in the fom of a numbe, esponses ae epoted as the median value and the intequatile ange (IQR). The median is a measue of cental tendency that mathematically summaizes an aay of judgmental opinions while discounting extemely high o low estimates; it is simply the middle esponse. The IQR is the ange bounded at the low end by the 25th-pecentile value and at the high end by the 75th-pecentile value. Fo example, in a question calling fo a pecentage foecast, the median answe might be 4 pecent and the IQR pecent. This means that one-quate of the espondents answeed 35 pecent o less, anothe one-quate chose 45 pecent o moe, and the middle half of all esponses anged between 36 pecent and 44 pecent, with 4 pecent as the middle esponse. That naow intequatile ange would indicate a faily close consensus among the espondents. In contast, the pecentage foecast fo a diffeent question might show a simila median foecast of 4 pecent, but with an intequatile ange of 2-7 pecent, indicating less consensus and a consideable degee of uncetainty about the issue in question. Uncoveing diffeences of opinion is one of the majo stengths of the Delphi method. Unlike othe suvey methods, whee diffeences of opinion among expets ae often obscued by statistical aveages, the Delphi highlights such diffeences though the pesentation of the intequatile ange. data. Discussion. Naative discussions ae pesented to highlight and explain a paticula set of Selected edited comments. Selected, edited comments fom the Delphi panelists ae shown following each data table in ode to povide some insight into the delibeative pocess by which panelists aived at thei foecast. In a Delphi suvey, espondents ae encouaged to contibute comments to explain thei foecast and to pehaps pesuade othe espondents to change thei positions. Many of these edited comments ae included. These eplies may povide impotant infomation which is not evident in the numeical data. An individual panelist may have unique knowledge that plannes should caefully conside. Howeve, eades should be caeful not to oveemphasiiie a paticula comment. It is possible fo a well-stated contay opinion to mislead the eade into ignoing an impotant majoity opinion which is accuately eflected in numeical data. Manufactuelsupplie compaison. Delphi IX panelists include espondents fom the Noth Ameican automotive manufactues; the majo supplies of components, pats, and mateials fo the industy; as well as consultants and academics. A conceted effot is made to obtain a elatively equal distibution of manufactue and supplie panelists. Within the context of this suvey, categoizations will efe simply to eithe Manufactues (o fo bevity in tables, OEMs- Oiginal Equipment Manufactues) and Supplies. Fo obvious competitive easons, the automotive manufactues seek to maintain a degee of sececy egading thei design, engineeing, and maketing plans. While the elationship between the manufactue and supplie is moving towad an inceasingly close degee of coopeation and integation, a consideable element of popietay concen emains. Additionally, the vey size and complexity of the automotive industy woks against optimum infomation tansfe. Theefoe, whee it is consideed elevant to a bette undestanding of o pesplective on the foecast, ou analyses include a compaison of the foecast fom manufactue and supplie panelists in an attempt to illustate whee significant ageements o diffeences exist.

8 Compaison of panels. The thee goups of Delphi panelists (Technology, Maketing and Mateials) ae asked questions that specifically focus on thei espective aeas of expetise. Howeve, a few questions ae consideed common to two o moe panels. Fo example, the fuelpice question (see MAT-1) is consideed so basic that it was submitted to all thee panels. At times, the panels will give diffeing esponses to these questions, This may eflect the makeup of a paticula panel and the panelists' subjective peception of the issue in question. Whee diffeences do exist between the panels, seious consideation should be given to whethe the diffeence eflects the composition and popietay inteest of that paticula panel o whethe thee exists a substantial degee of uncetainty egading the issue in question. We ty to highlight both the diffeences and similaities. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys. A single Delphi suvey is a snapshot which collects and pesents the opinions and attitudes of a goup of expets at a paticula point in time. Some questions, in vaious foms, wee asked in pevious Delphi suveys, and thus povide tend data. The fact that foecasts fo a paticula question may exhibit consideable vaiation ove the yeas does not diminish thei elevance and impotance to stategic planning. The foecasts eflect the consensus of expet opinion at the time. These opinions and foecasts ae pedicated on the best infomation available at the time. Howeve, maket, economic, and political factos do change. Tend data can eveal the stability o volatility of a paticula maket, mateial, o technology issue. A caeful analysis of tend data is an impotant consideation in stategic business planning decisions. Stategic consideations. Based on the eplies to a paticula question, othe elevant Delphi IX foecasts, othe eseach and studies, and OSAT's extensive inteaction with the automotive industy, this epot makes infeences and intepetations as to the coe issues in questions and thei potential impact on the industy. By no means ae they exhaustive statements of citical issues. Rathe, they ae points that the eade might conside useful. viii

9 MATERIALS CONTENTS PAGE... ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOREWORD... v v Intoduction. The Delphi method: geneal backgound... v Pocess... v Panel chaacteistics and composition... vi Pesentation of Delphi Foecasts and Analysis... vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I. STRATEGIC PLANNING FACTORS 1. Fuel pices, U.S. etail pe gallon Fuel pices, pecent of incease due to taxes Refomulated gasoline sales Altenative fuels, fedeal legislation Altenative fuels, Noth Ameican-poduced passenge vehicles Electic vehicles, mateials challenges PNGV, mateials challenges Fedeal egulatoy and legislative activity II. STRATEGIC MATERIALS CONSIDERATION 9. Mateials issues; new egulationsllegislation..., Recycling. egulatoy aeas of inteest Mateials issues. decision citeia Mateial selection, long-tem stategic consideations Mateial selection. depatmental influence Mateials issues, challenges and oppotunities Ill. TOTAL VEHICLE 15. Coosion issues. cosmetic and pefoation coosion Coosion issues, panel penetation coosive envionments Total vehicle weight. pecent change Mateials value, pe pound of weight saved Mateials value. impoved fuel economy by I mpg... 72

10 2. Mateial cost savings in the next decade Mateial issues. weight eduction. govenment egulations and ecyclability Mateial. pecent change by type Plastics. pecent change by type Magnesium. applications Emeging mateials. technologies. and applications Automotive fluids. emeging developments IV. POWERTRAINIDRIVETRAIN 27. Engine head and engine-block mateials Aluminum engine-block sleeve technology Aluminum engine-block sleeve mateials Engine components. mateial applications Ceamics. engine component applications Powdeed mateials. engine component application Engine oil coole. heate coes. adiato. tansmission oil cooles Fuel tank mateials. gasoline fueled passenge cas and light tucks V. BODYlCHASSlS. 35 Vehicle fame constuction type Vehicle fame constuction. mateial Stuctue composites. challenges fo incease usage Body components. mateial Body panels, specified stages of life cycle Bumpe components, mateial application Inteio components, mateial application Chassislsuspension components, mateial application Glass, altenative mateials Bake components, mateial application Styled wheels, mateial application Adhesive body joining technologies. baies Automotive paint technologies, penetation ates Automotive paint oven. tempeatue Custome satisfaction. body. and chassis mateials impovements

11 VI. RECYCLING 5. Recycling baies Significant ecycling baies. actions Methods to ecycling. challenges Manufactue actions egading ecycling DEFINITIONS KEY WORD INDEX

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13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Noth Ameican Automotive industy stakeholdes face a decade of challengle and change. Manufactues and supplies must wok to develop affodable vehicles that continue to meet custome expectations and govenment egulations. Nowhee is the challenge moe intense than in the selection of automotive mateials. The Delphi IX Foecast and Analysis of the Noth Ameican Automotive Industy: Mateials Volume identifies many of the challenges and oppoltunities facing industy paticipants. In doing so, the Mateials volume pesents an oppotunity fo companies to benchmak thei vision of the futue with that of an industy consensus. The Mateials volume of Delphi IX is divided into six sections addessing Stategic Planning Factos, Stategic Mateials Consideations, Total Vehicle, PowetainlDivetain, BodiylChassis and Recycling. This summay is intended to highlight key esults fom the 1998 Delphi IX Mateials volume. I. STRATEGIC PLANNING FACTORS Duing the next decade, panelists foecast fuel pices fo egula and pemium to incease annually at a ate of 4.3 pecent and 3.5 pecent espectively. This foecast incease fo egula and pemium gasoline ove the coming decade indicates the panel does not suggest any significant supply disuptions (MAT-1). Appoximately 5 pecent of the foecasted incease will be attibutable to inceased gasoline taxes (MAT-2). The panel views it as likely thee will be fedeal legislation equiing altenate fuels by 27 (MAT-4). Howeve, they expect the intenal combustion engine to continue to be the dominant powe souce fo the coming decade (MAT-5). The United Nations Convention on the Wold Climate in Kyoto, Japan has established tagets fo the eduction of cabon dioxide gases by 21. This ageement will likely have significant impact on the global automotive industy'. To assist in meeting these tagets, the fedeal govenment will likely attempt to enact sticte fuell economy and emissions standads. It is also possible that, as a pat of an attempt to educe cabon dioxide gases, the govenment will choose to expand legislation egading the use of altenate fueled vehicles. Howeve, befoe new altenate fuel laws ae implemented, cost, safety, and technological issues must be esolved. The development of an effective electic vehicle pesents many significant challenges fo the automobile industy. The citical challenges most fequently mentioned by the panelists include the advancement of battey technology and the application of lightweight mateials within the cost and pefomance standads established by the intenal combustion engine (MAT-6). The panel lists a vast aay of challenges and oppotunities faced in the development of a vehicle to meet the goals of the Patneship fo a New Geneation of Vehicles (PNGlV) (MAT-7). In many egads, the mateial equiements to meet these goals ae viable. Unfotunately, the ability to meet the mateial challenges, while emaining within the cost constaints, is not yet an achievable goal. A new mateials paadigm will likely be necessay fo the industy to meet the goals of the PNGV. Cuent manufactuing and design stategies may not allow fo the level of change necessay to meet the mass eduction equiements implied by the PNGV goals. The ability to delive a vehicle capable of 8 miles pe gallon may equie all stakeholdes to e-evaluate the mateials and pocess cuently used. Such a paadigm shift would be costly and potentially painful, especially in such a elatively shot time peiod. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 1

14 The panel foecasts fedeal egulation and legislation to become inceasingly estictive in the coming decade (MAT-8). The industy and govenment ae at a citical junctue with egad to envionmental egulationllegislation. The possibility of egional, national, and even intenational envionmental egulation will pesent a continuing challenge fo the industy. II. STRATEGIC MATERIALS CONSIDERATION The panel foecasts an inceasing likelihood of legislative and egulatoy activity by the fedeal govenment egading the ecyclability of the automobile. In view of the expected egulatoy activity, manufactues will likely need to e-evaluate thei mateial selection pocess and make adjustments to allow fo a geate emphasis on the final disposition of thei vehicles (MAT1 ). The cost of mateials and pocessing is expected to be the most citical mateial selection citeia in the coming decade. Weight, safety consideations, cost of waanty, field expeience, and design styling equiements ae also expected to be citical elements of the mateial selection pocess (MAT-1 1 ). The panelists most fequently list cost as the most citical long-tem stategic consideation with egad to mateial selection. They also indicate that inceased engineeing equiements, manufactuability, envionmental issues, and ecyclability will also be impotant long-tem stategic challenges (MAT-12). The panel lists a wide aay of mateial-elated issues that will pesent oppotunities and challenges in the coming decade. The esponses can be placed into fou geneal categoies: cost eduction, design, envionmental, and manufactuing. Thoughout the Mateials volume it is appaent that cost is a vey impotant issue in mateial selection. Howeve, it would be misleading to suggest that cost is the only impotant facto. To emain competitive in the coming decade, paticipants in the Noth Ameican automotive industy must continue to develop efficient design, manufactuing, and envionmental stategies that allow fo cost-effective solutions (MAT-14). Ill. TOTAL VEHICLE Although the panel foecasts an incease in length of time befoe panel pefoation, thee appeas to be little incentive to incease the cuent six yea, 6, mile coosion waanty. Effective long-tem coosion potection is dependent on a thoough systems appoach. Accoding to seveal comments, technology is available to incease the length of time befoe panel pefoation; howeve, manufactues must weigh the benefits of longe lasting panels with the associated costs (MAT-1 6). Panelists foecast vehicle weight to decease by 2 pecent by 22 and 5 pecent by 27. Govenment egulation is the most significant dive of vehicle weight eduction. The implementation of moe stingent egulation would likely lead to an inceased effot to educe mass. If ecently announced cabon dioxide eduction goals ae to be met by intenal combustion engines, the automotive industy will likely aggessively pusue lightweight mateials. In light of these goals, the foecast of a 5 pecent eduction by 27 may be somewhat consevative (MAT-17). The panelists indicate that Noth Ameican automotive industy paticipants ae inceasingly viewing the automobile as a complete system and not meely a compilation of individual pats. Panelists comments also indicate that mateial selection and the competition between mateials is moe intense than eve--and is likely to get even moe so in the coming decade (MAT-21). 2 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

15 The automotive industy is expected to continue the tend to lightweight mateials in the coming decade. Inceased penetation of lightweight mateials will come at the expense of taditional mateials such as low cabon steel, cast ion, coppe and zinc (MAT-22). Panelists foecast substantial gowth fo polypopylene, TPO, nylon, polyeste themoplastic, and polyethylene. The panel also foecasts significant decease in usage fo ABS, PVC, and uethane (MAT-23). IV. POWERTRAINIDRIVETRAIN Panelists foecast 95 pecent of cylinde heads and 5 pecent of engine blocks fo passenge cas will be made fom aluminum by 27. Panelists foecast 6 pecent of cylinde heads and 25 pecent of engine blocks fo light tucks will be made fom aluminum by 27 (MAT-27'). The panel foecasts a continued tend towad lightweight mateials fo engine applications. The automotive industy has, fo seveal yeas, been inceasingly substituting lightweight mateials fo cast ion and steel in engine applications. As components made fom altena~tive mateials appoach manufactuing scale economies, these mateials may apidly becomc! the industy standad. Also, fo many of the listed components, Noth Ameican manufactues nay be behind offshoe companies in conveting to lightweight mateials fo the listed engine components (MAT- 3). Panelists foecast aluminum to futhe incease penetation in engine oil cooles, heate coes, adiatos and tansmission oil cooles. Panelists expect aluminum to have highe penetation ates in passenge cas than light tucks fo engine oil cooles, heate coes, and adiatos. The panel does not foecast plastics to be used in any of the listed components in the nea futue (MAT-33). In the coming decade, the integal, o unibody, fame constuction will continue to be the dominant fame design fo the Noth Ameican passenge ca industy. The panel allso expects an inceased numbe of spot utility vehicles to be built using unibody design (MAT-35). Steel will likely continue to be the pedominant mateial fo all types of fame con!;tuction in the coming decade. Although steel suffes fom a weight disadvantage vis-a-vis aluminum, it povides a significant cost advantage. Steel also benefits fom having been the mateial of choice fo nealy a centuy. The combination of a cost advantage and a high comfot level places steel in a vey stong position (MAT-36). The use of composites fo stuctual applications pesents many potential advantages and, at least cuently, even moe challenges. Composites offe the oppotunity to significantly educe weight while inceasing design flexibility and eliminating coosion. Howeve, the panel indicates that thee ae numeous baies to the implementation of stuctual composites. Cost, ecyclability, cashwothinesslsafety, bondingljoining, and manufactuability all appea to be vey significant baies. It is impotant to note that beakthoughs in one o two of these aeas will not necessaily guaantee the inceased application of composites fo stuctual applications (MAT-37'). Duing the next decade steel usage fo exteio body panels is foecast to-decline only slightly. The panelists indicate that steel will likely emain the mateial of choice fo all hoizontal and vetical body panels. Manufactues and supplies have woked diligently to develolp competitive manufactuing pocesses fo altenative mateials with vaied success (MAT-38). Steel is viewed as having an advantage ove aluminum, themoplastic and the~mosets in the aw mateial cost, component pocessing, assembly, and vehicle disposal stages of the vehicle life O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 3

16 cycle. The panel ates themoplastics as slightly moe advantageous than the othe listed mateials in the design stage, and themoplastics, themosets and steel as equally advantageous in the fielduse stage (MAT-39). Themoplastic is foecast to inceasingly become the mateial of choice fo bumpelfascia. Themoplastic gains ae expected to be at the expense of themosets fo passenge cas, and steel fo tucks. It is possible that much of the foecast incease in themoplastic bumpe fascias fo light tucks may be due to the expected incease in the numbe of small spot-utility vehicle pogams. Many of these vehicles ae built fom passenge ca platfoms, and theefoe ae moe likely to use passenge ca bumpe systems (MAT-4). The panel foecast deceased application of steel and inceased application of lightweight altenatives fo seat fames and instument panel coss beams. They also foecast inceased effot to develop the listed plastic components fom simila plastic families (MAT-41). Plastic has ceated many oppotunities to educe weight, impove safety, and simplify component design and assembly fo inteio components. The need to incease commonality of mateials fo ecycling puposes has led to inceased inteest in designing goups of components with simila mateials. Weight eduction will also continue to dive inteio component mateial selection. Steel is foecast to decline in usage at the expense of lighte weight mateials. The panel foecasts little change in mateial fo most suspension components. Contol ams and steeing knuckles ae expected to see the inceased penetation of aluminum. The panel also foecasts the inceased application of aluminum fo light tuck dive shafts and diffeential caies (MAT-42). The panel foecasts little o no application of polycabonate as an altenative window mateial by 22. The panel foecasts only small penetation ates fo polycabonate in side o ea window applications by 27. They expect no use of polycabonate fo windshields in the coming decade. Special coatings and intelayes ae expected to see inceased usage though the foecast peiod (MAT-43). VI. RECYCLING Panelists see no significant baies to ecycling feous and nonfeous metals. Howeve, with egad to plastics, the panelists view economics, ease of mateial sepaation, infastuctue, and value of eclaimed mateial as significant challenges (MAT-5). The panelists' comments suggest significant concen ove the economic viability of automotive ecycling, and moe specifically, the development of an economically viable ecovey and euse technique fo plastics (MAT-51). The final disposition of automotive plastics continues to pesent significant challenges to the industy. Thee ae a few successful examples of eclaiming plastics fom vehicles fo euse; howeve, the majoity of plastics used in automobiles ae landfilled in the fom of automotive shedde esidue (ASR). Accoding to the panel, the degee of seveity fo the ecycling of plastics depends on the method, mateial, and ultimate use of the mateial. Themosets continue to be viewed as difficult to ecycle--eithe via a closed loop o open loop method. Themoplastics ae viewed as a somewhat less sevee challenge, yet still pesent significant baies to the implementation of viable ecycling pogams (MAT-52). Conclusion The Delphi IX Foecast and Analysis of the Noth Ameican Automotive Industy: Mateials Volume has pesents many challenges and oppotunities fo the industy. The mateials panel has pesented seveal factos that will likely dive the mateial selection pocess fo the coming decade. 4 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

17 Panelists have stated that, in no uncetain tems, cost eduction will play a citical ole, yet weight eduction will inceasingly become a key element in the selection pocess. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 5

18 (This page intentionally left blank) 6 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

19 MAT-1. Please estimate U.S. etail fuel pices pe gallon fo 22 and 217, including fuel tax. (Please use constant 1997 dollas without adjusting fo inflation). Unleaded Gasoline 22 Unleaded egula 1 $1.23 / $ $ $ o / $I.EW~ I I Unleaded pemium 1 $ j j "Souce: US Enegy Infomation Administation, National Aveage Jan. - Oct Selected edited comments Est. 1996* Median Response Afte 2, inceasing global enegy use will stat to put pessue on supply, and the pice of cude will go up. By 27, developing economies will be using moe enegy. incease the pice. This inceased demand will Demand and supply balance will be maintained duing this time span by patly offsetting the incease of vehicle population with the impovement of fuel efficiency of the fleet. Pice diffeences between egula and pemium may become wide with expansion of the use of phase 2 efomulated gasolines. Enegy eseves and efining capacity emain abundant, yet a political cisislsouce disuption is inevitable, as will be the impact of envionmentalists on Congess to extact a toll to encouage highe fuel efficiency. Expect fedeal and state taxes to incease fo oad maintenance and budget expenses. Fuel pices will emain constant (except fo somewhat highe taxes) to pay fo infastuctue and the cost of inceased usage of efomulated gasoline. Global demand fo enegy will squeeze supply in the next 1 yeas. I agee with the following: Fuel pices will continue to ise (moe people, moe cas, moe fuel needed) unless thee is a damatic incease in miles pe gallon by those high-volume vehicles (i.e. light tuck and mid-size cas). And, taxes will account fo the majoity of the imcease. I am assuming thee will be no majo cisis in any of the majo oil-poducing coun1:ies. I do not anticipate a suge of fuel pices, just a steady incease in line with the c:onsume pice index. Intoduction of altenative enegy vehicles, such as electic vehicles, compessed natual gas, liquid petoleum gas, and hybid vehicles might wok as a baie against lage inceases in the pice of gasoline. I do not believe altenate fuels will have any effect on the pice of gasoline in a time span as shot as 21. I still expect state taxes (possibly fedeal taxes) to ise to addess oad and infastuctue epais. Inceased fuel economy standads fo light tucklsuv will dive impoved mileage, and theefoe, less consumption. The only uncetainty would be fedeal and state gas tax inceases and maket impact. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 7

20 Inceased taxes plus the use of moe enegy by the thid wold will cause significant inceases in gasoline pices. New fuel deposits may be discoveed in China. Inceased consume demand may be patially offset by bette efficiency. New oil poduction in Russia will help keep competition high and pices down. New fuel economy standads will help with gasoline consumption and high-test pemium needs will be educed. OEMs will pobably equie fewe vehicles to use pemium gas by 27. Pices will continue to ise due to inceasing global demand and a lack of ability to effectively contol OPEC. Altenative technology won't be cost effective soon enough to put pessue on pices. Taxes fo EPA easons will dive pices up and foce use of smalle cas. Taxes will account fo the majoity of the incease. Taxes will ise, with that money eamaked fo oad epai and impovement. The answe assumes no engine technology beakthough to educeleliminate emissions. Taxes will aise the pice of gasoline to combat "geenhouse" C2emissions. The next ten yeas will see ising global demand and potential disuptions, as well as highe taxes. The spead in gasoline gades will incease as an altenative to an incease in gas-guzzle penalties. Wold cude poduction should keep up with demand duing this peiod. Any cude pice ise will be due to a political disuption. Taxes will ise to build and epai oads and, late, to fund inceasing expenditues. Discussion Duing the next decade, panelists foecast pices fo egula and pemium fuel to incease annually at a ate of 4.3 pecent and 3.5 pecent espectively. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Compaison of foecast: TECH l a and MKT-3a Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between the technology, maketing, and mateials panelists. 8 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

21 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel foecasts a slightly lage incease in gasoline pices; than did the 1996 Delphi Vlll panel. The Delphi IX panels foecast is consistent with the 1992 IDelphi VI and 1994 Delphi VII foecasts. Stategic consideations The foecast of 4.3 pecent and 3.5 pecent annual pice incease fo egula and pemium gasoline ove the coming decade indicates the panel does not expect significant supply disuption. Howeve, the panel expects inceased fuel taxes to affect the pice of gasoline (MAT-;!). Ealy Delphi suveys foecasted 199 gasoline pices in the $2.5 to $3. ange. Obviously, these foecasts did not come to fuition. The Delphi pocess can best be descibed as what panelists believe will happen, which is occasionally fa diffeent fom what does happen. Each foecast must be efeenced by many outside factos. The ealy Delphi foecasts wee made in a peiod of sevee gasoline shotages and apidly inceasing pices. In the context of the events of the ealy 198s, the Delphi foecast seemed vey easonable. The challenge fo the Delphi eade is to eview these esults and analyze extenal factos to detemine the validity of the panelists' foecasts. Duing the next decade, the enegy equiements of developing nations ae expected to incease significantly. The panel's foecast suggests that the inceased demand will only maginally affect gasoline pices in the United States. It is not yet clea how the ecent global envionmental ageement will affect gasoline pices. Even if the vaious govenments do not atify the ageement, it has set the tone fo cabon dioxide eduction in the coming decade and will likely have an impact on the pice of gasoline thoughout the wold. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 9

22 MAT-2. What pecent of the change foecast in MAT-1 will be attibuted to state and fedeal taxes? Pecent Change Attibuted to Taxes Median Response % 5% lntequatile Range % 41154% Selected edited comments Although pobably still unpalatable in 22, by 27 using gas tax to dive vehicle weightlefficiency issues will be accepted stategy. Despite the ineficiencies and unintended consequences involved, Congess will continue to indiectly tax (unfunded mandates to automakes, e.g., CAFE) ca buyes athe than diectly taxing fuel buyes (e.g. gasoline tax) in thei misguided attempts to discouage fuel consumption. Gasoline taxes will inceasingly become a viable altenative souce of tax evenues fo state and fedeal govenments. Govenment will finally wake up to the fact that inceased gas pices though taxation ae key to pushing fuel economy. Govenment will lack the couage to incease gasoline taxes. If we conside the possible intoduction of the so-called C2 Tax, a 5 to 1 pecent addition of fedeal tax could be expected aound 22. No tax incease is thinkable unde the cuent economic gowth ate and time span though yea 22, but as fa as 27 is concened (with some ageement at COP3) a maginal tax incease might be possible to suppess the fuel consumption. Taxation of fuel will include elements of cabon tax, usage tax and "penalty" tax fo usage. Taxes in 22 will be simila to today, but I expect an incease of 5 pecent by 27 Taxes will be the pincipal dive of highe fuel costs. The Big Thee will finally "convince" the govenment to aise fuel taxes instead of aising CAFE, The cost should emain constant, as new available cude will come fom Kazakhstan and the Noth Sea. Distillation costs will emain same. Thee is stong public sentiment that fuel tax inceases ae egessive and wok hadships on the aveage consume. This, plus the effots of the Ameican Tucking Associations, will keep Congess away fom significant changes. With the deteioation of ou oad systems in the noth and the incease in the population of southen states, thee will be an incease in the fuel tax. This incease in tax will supply the needed funds fo epai in the noth and oad constuction in the south. Discussion Panelists expect that 5 pecent of the foecasted change in gasoline pices (MAT-1) will be attibutable to inceased taxes O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

23 Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Compaison of foecast: TECH-I b and MKTSb Responses fom mateials panelists ae not statistically significantly diffeent fom technology panelists. Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in esponses between technology and maketing panelists. Mean esponses fo the two panels ae summaized in the followiing table. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys Pecent Change Attibuted to Taxes TECH % 53 This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations The panelists' foecast fo MAT-1 and MAT-2 indicate that the panel believes the supply of oil will emain elatively stable in the coming decade. Based on the foecast in MAT-1, the panelists expect a 2.2 pecent and 1.7 pecent annual incease in egula and pemium gasoline pices espectively befoe taxes and inflation. Given the tend in ecent yeas fo steady a~d even falling gasoline pices, the panels' foecast fo minimal pice inceases is undestandable. Howeve, thee is potential fo supply disuptions that may advesely affect that foecast. Developing nations ae apidly inceasing thei usage of oil. This inceased global demand may exacebate any futue supply shocks. Also, ecent ageements to educe gases that ae believed to cause global waming may lead to fedeal estictions on gasoline consumption. Although significantly highe gasoline taxes ae politically difficult to implement, it is likely that thee will be pessue to incease gasoline taxes o aise the copoate aveage fuel economy iin the coming decade. Eithe of these actions will have an affect on the MAT-I and MAT-2 foecasts;. MKT 36% 42 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 11

24 MATS. What pecentage of 22 and 27 U.S. gasoline sales, in gallons, will be efomulated in accodance with 199 Clean Ai Act Amendments Requiements? Refomulated Gasoline Selected edited comments 1996* 25% Median Response 22 35% lntequatile Range * Souce: U.S. Enegy Infomation Administation (Estimate excludes aea of Califonia outside of Sacamento, San Diego, and Los Angeles) Any nonattaining egion will mandate efomulated gasoline at an ealy stage because that is an effective and pomising appoach. As long as the costs ae containable, efineies set up to poduce efomulated gas will sell it in aeas whee it is not mandated, as well as in the aeas whee it is. Consumes aleady use efomulated gasoline and likely do not even know it. The EPA seems clea on its intent. Lowe level pollution of the atmosphee is inceasing and govenments ae likely to espond with counte measues. Consumes will esist efomulated gasoline. 27 5% Designated nonattainment aeas will shotly double, pe the EPA % % Global events (i.e. gowing demand and anothe oil cisis) will be the maco dives fo altenate fuel use. Govenment egulations will dive this. As long as Democats ae in powe, this should incease. Thee ae health concens with MTBE and methanol that seem to be ignoed by the envionmentalist lobby. If these ae consideed, oxygenated fuels may not look so good. Hopefully Congess will continue to educe the amount of egulation imposed upon the Ameican people, paticulaly when the egulation is not based on sound science. Measuement systems and noms fo non-attainment have esulted in efomulated fuel being equied in aeas whee eal ai quality poblems do not exist, and whee the move to efomulated fuel and the expected health outcomes cannot be coelated. I believe efomulated gas will be discontinued due to elated poblems with it. I do not see a vey stong tend. Electic cas will gow in citical geogaphic aeas. Pimaily efomulated gasoline and clean diesel (athe than altenatives to petoleum) will meet Clean Ai Act equiements fo cleane fuels. Refomulated gasoline will be mandated by govenment equiements. Refomulation fomulas may change significantly by 27 Discussion Panelists foecast efomulated gasoline to account fo 35 pecent of all gasoline sold by 22 and 5 pecent of all gasoline sold by O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

25 Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in this fom in the 1992 Delphi VI. The Delphi VI foecast fo 2 was 5 pecent. The 1994 Delphi VII and 1996 Delphi Vlll panels both foecasted significantly lowe penetation ates fo efomulated gasoline than did the 1992 panel. The long-tem foecast by the 1998 Delphi IX panel is fo 5 pecent penetation, this time by Delphi VI 1994 Delphi VII 1996 Delphi Vlll 1998 Delphi IX Refomulated Gasoline Usage Shot-tem yea1 Long-tem yea NN Shot-tem foecast % NA Long-tem foecast % Stategic consideations (new) The Clean Ai Act of 199 has mandated the use of efomulated gasoline fo egions that do not meet ai quality standads. The initial efomulated gasoline blend poduced some consume dissatisfaction. Howeve, it appeas that the Envionmental Potection Agency will continue to equie efomulated gasoline as a pat of its stategy to educe pollution levels. In the coming decade, the numbe of nonattainment aeas will likely incease makedly. These aeas that do not meet the ai quality standads will be foced to use efomulated gasoline in an attempt to meet the moe stingent standads. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 13

26 MAT-4. What is the likelihood of fedeal legislation mandating some degee of altenative fuel capability in etail vehicle sales, excluding fleets, by 22 and 27? Please include electic vehicles in you foecast. 3 = modeately likely Selected edited comments A sue point; govenment will intevene. Among so-called altenative vehicles, eveybody ealizes that hybids ae most feasible and satisfying fo eveyday diving. This will encouage legislatos to set a mandate. COP 3 at Kyoto, Japan this fall (1997) will clealy show the taget level of C2 eduction and yea of attainment and this will equie the fedeal govenment to conside the mandated intoduction of altenative fuel vehicles. I expect ethanol-type fuels to incease. significant amount. Thee will be some electic vehicles, but not a If scientific evidence continues to build in favo of the geenhouse effect, then legislation will come on stong. This is paticulaly tue fo Euope. It is one thing to mandate that altenative fuel vehicles be available fo puchase, it is anothe thing entiely to mandate that someone actually buy them. This leads to pemiums on gasolinepoweed vehicles to subsidize altenative fuel vehicles, andlo othe foms of fedeal foolishness in the maketplace. I would hope that we ae past that, but pehaps not. Legislation by cetain states will push fedeal legislation. Legislation by states is extemely likely. The EPA will continue to pessue manufactues to impove emissions pefomance. Baby boomes, with a high impact on sales, have been eaed on ecological issues and will lagely suppot effots to equie lowe emissions. The fedeal govenment's inability to do things easily would suppot a bueaucatic mandate and ensuing compliance enfocement. The nea-tem pessue fo legislation will likely mateialize in some sot of legislation; then time pessue will be educed. The wold has citicized the U.S. fo not being sufficiently aggessive in educing C2. The Clinton administation will push hade. This depends lagely on whethe the U.S. will submit itself to United Nations envionmental dictates. 14 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

27 Discussion The panel foecasts as less than modeately likely that some fom of fedeal legislation egading altenate fuels will be enacted by 22. Howeve, the panel views it as lilkely that thee will be fedeal legislation equiing altenate fuels by 27. Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations The United Nations Convention on the Wold Climate in Kyoto, Japan, has established tagets fo the eduction of cabon dioxide gases by 21. This ageement will likely hisve significant impact on the global automotive industy. To assist in meeting these tagets, the fedeal govenment will likely attempt to enact sticte fuel economy and emissions standads. It is also possible that, as a pat of an attempt to educe cabon dioxide gases, the govenment will choose to expand legislation egading the use of altenate fueled vehicles. Howeve, befoe new altenate fuel laws ae implemented, cost, safety, and technological issues must be esolved. The challenge fo meeting futue fuel economy and emissions standads is complex. Califonia and seveal notheasten states continue to develop state and egional egulations that will add futhe complexity to the challenge. A well-thought-out, technically feasible, fedeal-altenative fuels stategy (as opposed to a hodgepodge of state and egional laws) is significantly moe attactive to both industy and the consume. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 15

28 MAT- 5. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks (including fleets) will use each of the following altenate enegy souces in 22 and 271 Enegy Souce Alcohol o alcohollgasoline (>lo% alcohol; includes flex fuel o vaiable fuel) Diesel Electic Passenge Cas Hybid-Electiclcombustion engine Natual gas I Popane I I / / / I I I I I I Selected edited comments / Median Response Est., % 4% lntequatile Range % 111% Est Median Response Light Tucks lntequatile Range *Souce: Wad's Automotive Repots, Febuay 3,1997 and Febuay 24, Dates fo 1996 based on poduction in U.S., Canada, and Mexico fo the U.S. Maket. A highe pecenta,,;~ of vehicles will use up to the mandated limit of oxygenated hydocabon, which in a pactical sense means ethanol andlo methanol at less than 1%. Diesel fuel, in the shot-tem will be of esticted use because of its paticulate poblem. The advantage of nonaomatic hydocabon containing diesel, in not contibuting to gound level ozone, would spu its legislative-induced use once the paticulate issue is esolved. A vaiety of technologies will develop. The maket and technology evolution will sot out the eventual mix. Govenment pessue will foce expeimentation. CAFE will pobably have light tucks at the same mpg as cas by 27. <I% % 3% 1 115% 111% I Even though the diesel has a (deseved) poo eputation in Noth Ameica, the Euopean expeience with diect injection diesels will pemeate the Noth Ameican consciousness. Pefomance, noise, and cold-stat poblems have been mateially impoved and fuel economy is substantially bette than spak-ignition. Gasoline pice and emission impovements will lead to the use of othe fuels. Selected uban aeas will have electic cas legislated o local "owne tax" will favo electic cas. I do not expect intenal combustion engines to be eplaced with altenate enegy souces to any significant degee. I do not see an immediate impact on electic vehicle poduction unless a hybid is developed that will use electiclintenal combustion with little inconvenience and cost to the buying public. expect a geneally inceasing pecent of diesel, natual gas and popane fo light tucks. I also expect a geneally inceasing pecent of natual gas and popane fo cas. 16 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

29 Maket shae depends on fuel economy and NOx legislation. NOx catalyst development may lead to a Euopean mix of diesel and gasoline passenge cas. The cost and length of life fo batteies will keep EV fom wide application despite the Califonia mandate of 1% ZEV by 23. Fom the technological and economical point of view, EVlcombustion (gasoline) hybid E-ZEV will have highe potential. Also, natual gas has the same level of potential as hybid because catalyst technology to teat methane popely will be developed to meet emission equiements. Discussion The panel foecasts maket penetation ates fo flexible-fueled vehicles to be 4 pecent fo passenge cas and 3 pecent fo light tucks by 27. Diesel engines ae foecast to each an 8 pecent shae of the light tuck segment by 27. Minimal gowth is foecast fo all othe listed altenate powe souces. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Compaison of foecast: TECH-13 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between technology and mateials panelists fo the altenate fuels in passenge cas and light tucks in the yeas shown in the following table. 1 Altenate Fuels - Pecent I Passenge Ca TECH 22 I TECH ' O O MAT ' i I I 1 Diesel / Light Tuck Diesel Natual gas Technology panelists foecast highe use of diesel in passenge cas and liglht tucks and natual gas in light tucks than mateials panelists. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the pesent fom in the 1994 Delphi VII. The Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with the pevious two foecasts. Howeve, cuent panelists ae! slightly moe optimistic egading diesel applications in light tucks than the pevious panels. MAT 5. 1.O O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 17

30 Stategic consideations The panelists expect the intenal combustion engine to continue to be the dominant powe souce fo the coming decade. The implementation of altenate fuels and engines will likely be diven, not by consume choice, but by policy. Recently thee has been substantial effot given to the development of seveal altenate enegy powetains. The payoff fo these effots has been significant gains in technology. Yet substantial baies still exist. Panelists foecast that diesels, common thoughout much of the est of the wold, will see inceased light tuck application in the United States. The development of an effective NOx catalyst would likely incease the application ate of diesel engines in both passenge cas and light tucks in the United States. Each of the listed altenate fuels is not expected to see acceptance beyond limited application levels. It is impotant to note that stakeholdes involved in the development of each altenate fuel ae making substantial effots to assue the success of thei inteests. It is essential that public policy take into account the technical and economic ealities togethe with envionmental issues. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

31 MAT-6. What mateial issues will pesent the most significant challenges o oppotunities in the development of the electic vehicle? (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Challenges (issues): Battey Challenges Acid and lead hazads (2) e Atomic/electical powe (3) Availability, time and ease of echaging (1) Battey - constuction Battey - cost (initial and eplacement) (6) Battey - disposallecycling (3) Battey - efficiency (2) Battey - enegy density Battey - life (7) Battey - mateials (5) Battey - pefomance Battey - size Battey - technology Battey - weight (9) Battey issue - stoage (3) Battey powe density (2) Electic conductivity Long-tem idle peiod (aipot paking) Shot duation diving distance Cost Concens Cost - lightweight mateials and stuctue (13) Cost. - mateials (2) Cost (4) Cost of aluminum fo body stuctues Cost of owneship O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 19

32 Cost of poduction Cosffpefomance habits Electic Motos Electic moto designs to be impoved by educing weight and size but inceasing powe output Lightweight populsion systems Low enegy loss motos Moto geneato-highe convesion efficiency Moto mateials Mateials Aluminum--cost, manufactuability, joining and epaiability Exteio appeaance impovements fo composite body panels Fast cycle time and consistent composites FRC (Fibe Reinfoced Composites) manufactuability, unifomity (cash enegy management pediction) GFRC (Gaphite fibe einfoced composites), cost, manufactuability Inexpensive and light mateials with as little seconday pocessing (machining and themal) as necessay Inteio mateials, especially seat stuctues and estaints Joining of vaiety of mateials Lightweight glazing and noise eduction though the glazing Lightweight mateials fo saving weight in highe volume vehicles Lightweight tanspaencies Lightweight yet taditional class " A suface Lightweight, mechanically capable mateials fo stuctual, diveline, and body-skinning applications Low-cost polyme matix composites Low-cost sheet aluminum Low-cost ulta light composites Oveall weight eduction of vehicle mateials Steel--density Stength Stengthlweight Stuctual integity 2 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

33 Vehicle weight eduction-weight of battey itself and ack, body panel, chassis components e Weight efficiencyleduction (4) Othe Cost and ecyclability of high-tech mateials (e.g., fuel cell, battey components) Cash potection and enegy management (2) e Fictionless technology Full-size vehicles Lowe cost and esulting vehicle picing of ealy vesion Manufactuability On-boad powe supply Package equiements Packaginglstyling Rechage infastuctuelefuel infastuctue Recyclability (3) Reliability of electical connections Safety Shaing of ideas between the OEMs Time constaints fo poduct development and poduct validation Vehicle pefomance (2) Oppotunities (solutions): Batf ey Oppotunities Batteies with 5 mile ange Bette electochemical batteies Development of advanced batteies and the needed mateials High-enegy density battey technology e Lithium battey (3) Long-life batteies Long-life synthetic enegy battey New battey technology New battey technology, high-tech, high-volume New sola cell technology O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 21

34 Polyme-based battey (3) Cost Oppofunities Cost-effective method to join lightweight body stuctues to achieve equied safety, duability and stiffness citeia e Cost will be the oveiding issue Stuctues edesigned fo low-cost composite Electic Motos Development of hybid engines Functional flywheels Mateials fo highe enegy density motos Mateials Additional impovements in pimeslcoatings (2) Aluminum fo body, chassis and powetain (2) e Aluminum: DFM fo aluminum to help with the lowe ductility and moe difficult joining; continuous casting and electic utility deegulation to help with the cost poblems; nationwide taining and education fo epai e Amophous metals fo lowe magnetic losses Cabonlgaphite fibe-einfoced composites; CEM design; mateial unifomity and cost (3) Coatings Combination of design and lightweight mateials such as composites, magnesium, and titanium Composite mateials (3) Develop lowe cost manufactuing technologies fo these mateials Develop way to educe feedstock costs of aluminum, magnesium, gaphite fibe composites, titanium, etc. Heat-eleasing and absobing mateials lmpoved manufactuing technology fo mass educing mateial lmpoved plastics that optimize stength and ductility; stuctual composites need to move fom space industy to automotive industy Laminate o composite mateials fo boad stuctual application Lightweight aluminum alloy fo body fame and chassis, stampable fibe-einfoced themoplastics fo battey ack and body panels, polyolefin-based integated inteio system Lightweight design using aluminum and magnesium Low-cost aluminum stuctual techniques Magnesium fo seats, instument panels, etc. 22 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

35 Magnetic mateials development Mateials fo highe enegy density batteies Minimize joining of simila and dissimila mateials Moe aluminum and magnesium (2) Moe magnesium and aluminum Nontaditional applications of nonfeous mateials due to "tickle down" effect of much lighte weight vehicle Plastic glazing (2) Semisolid molding of aluminum Significantly impoved fomability fo aluminum alloys Stable educed pice fo aluminum sheet alloys Steel: holistic design taking advantage of steel's unique popeties and utilizing altenative achitectue and design solutions fo impoved pefomance and educed mass (i.e., impoved efficiency in design) Stuctual and ecyclable composites Use of lightweight mateials like plastics Weight eduction based on design modifications (e.g., stiffening membes stategiically placed to educe mass while etaining stuctual integity) Othe All of the above ae inteelated. A battey constuction that has a highe efficiency will have an effect on each of the othe paametes. As has been demonstated by weak sales of the EV-1, the public desies a longe-ange vehicle at a sensible pice, not a novelty. Composite fabication of famelbody Envionmental impact-clean Fuel cell development (5) Govenment-sponsoed development of this infastuctue Hybid solutions Inceased design knowledge Legislative eality ai New compute models of component pefomance and duability No electical finishing system None in the shot-tem (2) Onboad geneation of electical powe with ecipocating magnets Refome technology O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 23

36 Smalle vehicles The development of apid tooling Discussion The panel lists a wide ange of mateial-elated challenges and oppotunities pesented by the electic vehicle. The challengesloppotunities can be gouped into fou basic categoies: battey issues, mass eduction, cost and pefomance. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations The development of an effective electic vehicle pesents many significant challenges fo the automobile industy. The citical challenges include the advancement of battey technology and the application of lightweight mateials within the cost and pefomance standads established by the intenal combustion engine. Although advancements continue in battey technology and pefomance, most initial electic vehicle offeings have elied on lead-acid batteies. These batteies ae chaacteized by slow echaging popeties, limited diving anges, and shot sevice life. Recently metal hydide batteies have been offeed in some electic vehicles. Although they have inceased ange, and deceased echaging time they ae also moe expensive. The panelists indicate that battey technology and the mateial issues involved in battey technology will continue to hinde the success of the electic vehicle in the coming decade. Cuent electic vehicle pogams make it clea that plastics, aluminum, high-stength steels, and magnesium will play an impotant ole in the development of electic vehicles. Cost-effective uses of these mateials will geatly incease the likelihood of a successful electic vehicle. Although some companies have shifted attention away fom electic vehicles with inceased developmental effot being given to hybid vehicles, thee continues to be significant effot to develop electic-poweed vehicles. The lessons leaned fom these pogams ae a necessay, if costly, execise that may lead to shifts in mateial pocessing paadigms within the industy. 24 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

37 MAT- 7. What mateial issues will pesent the most significant ct~allenges o oppotunities in the development of PNGV Patneship fo a New Geneation of Vehicles? (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Challenges (issues): Battey Challenges Cost-effective battey (2) * Range Rechaging time Cost Challenges Affodable lightweight design * Cost (3) Cost fo using lightweight mateials (aluminum, composite, o magnesium) (8) Cost of development Cost of poduct Cost-effective altenative poduction pocesses Cost-effective epaability of "advancedj' mateials in body panels, etc. Economics in poducing an affodable vehicle (5) Electic Motos Impoved mechanical efficiency: enegy ecovey of IC engines, fiction loss, eduction of tansmissions and wheels, ties etc. Low fiction, duable lubicants Magnetic shielding Fuel Cells Technology Fuel cells Fuel cells offe the best long-tem appoach to impoved fuel economy, but they ae ten times too expensive. Mateials 5 pecent weight eduction in chassis, body and inteio Cost of mateials Cost of mateials/manufactuing O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 25

38 Costlpefomance of lightweight plastic composites Cost-effective mass eduction (2) Developing cost-effective, lightweight body stuctues which can be manufactued at high volumes and which can be eadily ecycled Duability, taking into account tempeatue, humidity and UV exposue; developing appopiate acceleate test pocedues Efficient high-volume pocesses End of life ecycling Envionmental issues: toxicity and ecyclability Exteio appeaance impovement fo composite body panels Feedstock costs of lightweight mateials High ecycling ates and low-cost pocessing. Impoved ceamic manufactuing capability fo tubines Joining vaiety of mateials (4) Lack of expeience in designing with altenative mateials-plastics and composites vesus steel and aluminum always handicaps effective utilization of these altenatives in new designs. Popely utilized, these mateials can help solve the most difficult poblems the PNGV pogam faces, efficient with cost effectiveness. Lightweight tanspaencies Lightweight vehicle stuctue Lightweight vs. safety Low-cost polyme composite mateials (2) Lowe cost fo highe volume poduction pocesses of nonfeous poducts Manufactuability Manufactuing and assembly issues Manufactuing pocesses with new mateials Massive body weight eduction (5 pecent) without damatically highe costs Mateial equiements (e.g., inceasing exhaust gas tempeatues) Recyclability (4) Weight efficiencyleduction (9) Weight of feous metals Weight eduction: concept of vehicle usage (limited use o geneal use) and stuctue (fame and unitized) Weight vs, stength 26 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

39 Othe "Not invented hee" syndome at the Big Thee Catalyst so NOx can be met with high efficiency Dl engines Commecially-viable PNGVs ae assumed Competitive natues of the maketplace will eliminate any seious development Exhaust systems FRC: CEM (Cash Enegy Management) Futhe weight eduction without haming cashwothiness o inceasing costs to such an extent that customes will not be able to affod to puchase the vehicle Getting all paties to agee on diection Govenment safety egulations Maintain comfot level to that of cuent family vehicles Maintaining inteest and focus when fuel costs ae so low May need egulation changes Meeting fuel economy goal Pat-making technologies that povide obust components at educed costs Passive estaint Pefomance Powe management: selection and contol of electic powe and combustion enegy Reduction of ecipocating mass in intenal combustion engines Resistance of Big Thee to change Satisfying custome "lifestyle statement", vehicle cycling, and pefomance Shaing of ideas between the OEMs Supplie capability Supplie infastuctue Supply base Oppotunities (solutions): Battey Oppotunities High enegy density battey technology. Fuel Cell Technology Catalysts fo fuel cells Fuel cell ---- O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 27

40 Fuel Cell Technologies: hydogen stoage alloys, methanol to hydogen catalyst, high-efficient and duable membane Impovement in fuel cell technology could have a geat impact-on-boad has eal pomise Mateials appopiate fo fuel cell technology hydogen fomation Mateials A steel/aluminumlcomposite (glass)/plastic/ulta-light composite (cabon) hybid vehicle should give the best cost vesus weight balance Aluminum mill poducts (3) Combination of design and lightweight mateials such as composites, magnesium, and titanium (7) Highe volume cost, fibe pefomance pocess fo PMCs Lightweight vs. safety Low fiction mateials (polyme, ceamics, alloys), oils fo CVTs and automatic tansmissions Mateial substitute fo feous metals Mateials fo highe enegy density electical stoage fo hybid powetain Moe extensive use of high stength steel including stainless Steel-innovative design to educe mass (2) Use of highe alloyed, moe exotic metalslcomposites (e.g., use of moe austenitic stainless gades in exhaust systems) Use of mateials not usually associated with majo automotive stuctual components (e.g., stainless steel fo use in fames etc.) Mateials Cost Inceased level of demand fo lightweight mateials such as aluminum and magnesium may help to stabilize pices. e Low cost cabon fibes Low cost high stength steel Low cost polyme and aluminum body stuctues Low costlhigh pefomance esins Need new methods fo poducing low cost aluminum and magnesium Stuctues edesign fo low-cost composite Mateials Pocessing Application of the stuctual bonding system developed by Alcan fo steet-based body stuctues 28 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

41 Composite joining High-speed plasticslcomposites fabication and pocessing technique Hydofoming of steellaluminum tubing Impoved manufactuing technology fo mass educing mateials Low-cost aluminum stuctual techniques Minimize joining of simila and dissimila mateials New foms and joining methods fo aluminum stuctues Othe e 1 pecent ecyclable By saving money due to pooled esouces on pecompetitive eseach development, companies may be able to affod to use some moe costly mateials. Design ignoance (lack of expetise) by OEMs Design optimization Exteme use of consolidated patslfunction Fist to maket will have a distinct advantage Fuel efficiency Lage, integated, stuctued light metal castings Life cycle costs * Low capability by tie 1 supplies in lightweight mateials Mindset o existing mass poduction paadigm; sunk capital New manufactuing technologies (e.g., hydofoming) New pat-making technologies such as castings and powde metallugy Potential fo inceased ecyclability (2) Recycling facilities Recycling infastuctue fo nonmetallics Redesign of systems to educe numbe of pats (consolidation) Re-enginee the assembly line to bypass 2" C e-coat (ELPO) pime ovens Same as today-not vey good Technology awaeness USCAR to foce on (1) lowe cost nonfeous aw mateial pocesses and (2) lo\ne cost pices to fom NNS components O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 29

42 Discussion The panel lists a vast aay of challenges and oppotunities faced in the development of a vehicle to meet the goals of the Patneship fo a New Geneation of Vehicles. The comments suggest that the panelists foesee a significant effot to achieve the stated goals. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations In many egads, the mateial equiements to meet the goals of the PNGV ae viable. Unfotunately, the ability to meet the mateial challenges, while emaining within the cost constaints is not yet an achievable goal. A new mateials paadigm will likely be necessay fo the industy to meet the goals of the PNGV. Cuent manufactuing and design stategies may not allow fo the level of change necessay to meet the mass eduction equiements implied by the PNGV goals. The ability to delive a vehicle capable of 8 miles pe gallon may equie all stakeholdes to e-evaluate the mateials and pocess cuently used. Such a paadigm shift would be costly and painful, especially in such a elatively shot time peiod. The use of composites fo stuctual components pesents an example of such a paadigm shift. Composites in stuctual components offe many potential benefits, yet baies pesist that make nea-tem acceptance unlikely. Manufactuing cycle time emains too long, and thee is continued uncetainty egading the eliability of finite element analysis modeling elated composites. The development of altenative powetains also pesents the potential fo a new mateials paadigm. The intenal combustion engine has diven the industy fo a centuy. Howeve, much of the effot by the PNGV has been towad the development of altenate powe souces, which may equie new technology mateials. 3 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

43 MAT- 8. Please indicate you view of the tend in U.S. fedeal egulation and legislation ove the shot-tem ( ) and long-tem (23-27). Also, please list any likely new aeas of legislative and/o egulatoy activity. Scale: 1 much moe estictive 2 = somewhat moe estictive 3 = no change fom = somewhat less estictive 5 = much less estictive LegislationlRegulatoy Activity Mean Rating Shot-Tem Fuel economy standads (CAFE) 1 Passenge ca I / Light tuck ~ I.7 1 Vehicle emission standads I I 1 Passenge ca Light tuck I 2.3 ~ Long-Tem Vehicle integity/cashwothiness 1 I 1 Passenge ca I 2.4 ~ Light tuck I 2.3 ~ 1.9 Altenate fuel use Passenge ca Light tuck Occupant estainffinteio safety Passenge ca Light tuck Poduct liability Passenge ca Light tuck Antitheft equipment Passenge ca Light tuck New aeas: Mobile phones: Passenge ca - 2; Light tuck - 2 Selected edited comments A lot depends on who is pesident and who is in Congess. It's a political thing and cost is and will be a majo issue. An intusive misguided govenment can't esist meddling (and usually making things wose). Antitheft is likely to be installed pe consume demand, mitigating govenment mandate. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 31

44 Development of PNGV (if it comes to pass) will have a majo effect on CAFE and altenative fuel legislation. With lighte weight mateials used in the manufactue of these vehicles, thee may be an advese effect on vehicle integitylcashwothiness. Elections in 2 could esult in changes. Global citizenship pessues, athe than the U.S. Congess, will be the stonge facto in moving to a somewhat moe estictive scenaio. In the shot-tem thee could be legislation by states on altenate fuel use. In the long-tem, new equiements ae possible fo lage vehicles to educe the damage caused to smalle vehicles. Safety will be a majo thust the next 5 yeas. Occupant estaint and cashwothiness will be paamount. Reduction awads of poduct liability will take place, as pesonal esponsibility will come into play. Daytime unning lamps will become mandatoy as thei effect on accident pevention becomes moe evident. The pendulum may be swinging back to a sane legislative mood. Tial lawye lobby will have a lage impact on legislation as well as libeal goups such as that un by Ralph Nade. Woldwide ageement fo contolling C2 emissions will foce the fedeal govenment to incease fuel economy equiements. Discussion Panelists foecast in the shot-tem that all listed aeas will see somewhat moe estictive egulationllegislation. Fuel economy, emissions, and safety ae foecast to have much moe estictive egulationllegislation by 27. Regulationllegislation petaining to light tucks is foecast to be simila to that of passenge cas. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question has been asked in the same fomat since the 1994 Delphi VII. Ove that peiod, the foecast of the mateials panels have been simila. Howeve, the 1996 Delphi Vlll panel foecast long-tem egulationllegislation to be moe estictive than did eithe the 1994 Delphi VII o the 1998 Delphi IX panels, especially with egad to occupant estaintlinteio safety, poduct liability, and vehicle emissions. Stategic consideations The panel foecasts fedeal egulation and legislation to become inceasingly estictive in the coming decade. The ecent tend in Congess has been away fom technology foced command and contol and towad a moe coopeative effot in a numbe of egulatoy aeas. Howeve, the industy and govenment ae at a citical junctue with egad to envionmental egulationllegislation. The possibility of egional, national and even intenational envionmental egulation will pesent a continuing challenge fo the industy. 32 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

45 Ove the past decade thee has been a consideable amount of pogess in the development of altenate powetains. Thee is potential that the fedeal govenment may see these initial advancements and become ovezealous with egulations which may foce the use of technologies befoe they ae maket-eady. Convesely, the automotive industy has, on occasion, shown that the incentive of govenment standads may be necessay to encouage the developnent of citical technologies. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 33

46 (This page intentionally left blank) 34 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

47 MAT- 9. What new egulationllegislation do you anticipate in the next decade that will significantly affect mateial selection? (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Emissions and CAFE Additional inceases in CAFE will dive long life o life of vehicle fluids (i.e. imlpoved fiction modifies and lubicity of engine, tansmission, gealaxle oils and coolant impovements) and have caused, and will continue to cause, compatibility issues with component mateials as well as sealing mateials. Altenate fuel mandates CAFE changes pushing lighte vehicles and lighte weight mateial, especially in tucks. (3) CAFE/C2 geneation expectations fo the SUV maket-it CAFEISafety will continue a push towad cost-effective mass eduction. C2 eduction equiement will be eflected into new CAFE standads. is diving the envionm~ental issue. Fuel economy and emission ae the aeas whee the futhe impovements will be equied by new egulations. (3) Highe CAFE andlo fuel tax (while consume expectations on pefomance will not be loweed) Highe fuel tax will stee consumes to highe fuel economy vehicles. Weight eduction though mateial selection will follow. Inceased CAFE (8) Inceased CAFE standad fo light tucks (4) Lowe NOx standads Reduced fuel consumption and C2 emissions will incease the pessue to educe weight by using moe lightweight mateials. Some change in CAFE fo light tucks such as edefining SUVs as cas Stationay Souce Emissions and Othe Hazadous Mateials Ai quality fom decoating opeations (paintltim) Banning of use of cetain mateials because of the envionment-solvents, Chemicals used in coatinglplating esticted limiting coatinglplating options heavy metals, etc. Continued estiction (unwaanted) against incineation of plastics fa enegy; clean technology exists Fixed site emissions estictions will foce paint systems to continue to change(2) Futhe contol of substances of concen Global (as opposed to local) egulations will influence U.S. manufactues. Q Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

48 Global waming elated legislation is a possibility in the post 2 time fame. I believe seious effots will be made to estict Ameicans "unlimited" diving. Inta-city estiction to assist ozone eduction in lage cities Lead plating, now widespead, will be outlawed--good! Moe "heavy metals" estictions in plating Moe egional emission standads (inceasing) Moe estictions egading clean ai and wate could affect choices of paint and othe coatings Paticle size fo paticulate emissions Recyclability Evolving ecycling guideline fom the Big Thee will naow the field of suitable plastics Ill-conceived plastics ecycling Legislation to equie ecycling andlo dismantling RCRA (Resouce Consevation and Recovey Act) will be moe sevee Recyclability (8), Recyclability of total vehicle (2) Recyclability (disassembly by capability) is making it easie fo mateials identification. (2) Recyclability fo vehicles expoted fom Noth Ameica Recyclability mandate (25) vehicle etuned to manufactuing andlo pecentage ecycled mateial Recyclability: ASR (Automotive Shedde Residue, o Fluff) disposal poblems may geneate sufficient popula suppot to engende legislation (a la Gemany). Recycling of post-consume nonmetals Regulations on bumpe height to avoid light tucks oveiding the bumpes of cas Safety Belted occupant fo FMVSS 28 testing Cashwothiness (2) Cashwothiness and CAFE will equie lightelstonge mateial, pehaps magnesium, titanium and ABS. Development and application of ITS will eventually educe the numbe of fatal accidents and this makes the tighte egulation unnecessay. Hamonization of fontal and side cash tests between U.S. and Euope Head impact Impoved cashwothiness fo light tucks Inceased emphasis on inteio safety 36 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

49 Inteio safety equiementslduability will push the envelope in inteio mateialls fo occupant potection. Movement to the "cage" concept (i.e., NASCAR) fo passenge safety Occupant estaint moe stingent (3) Safety (2) Side impact (2) Discussion The panel foecasts that new, o moe estictive, egulations petaining to fuel economy, emissions, ai and wate quality, and ecyclability will significantly affect mateial s'election in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations Moe estictive CAFE egulations will likely move the industy towad significant nass eduction in the coming decade. Mass eduction will come fom downsizing of vehicles, in~poved design efficiency, and the application of lightweight mateials. Accoding to panelists, plastics, aluminum, and magnesium ae likely to see apid gowth in the automotive industy. Also of note is the panels' fequent mention of stationay souce emissions. It is likely that egulation egading such emissions will become inceasingly stingent. lnceased egulation could have a significant effect on mateial selection. Close scutiny will be given, not only to the mateials attibutes, but also to the envionmental fiendliness of mateials-manufactuing pocesses. Thee continues to be potential fo egulation petaining to the ecyclability of vehicles (see Questions 1, 5-53). Any such egulation may have significant implications fo the use of plastics, and theefoe waants close monitoing. Inceased safety egulation could also lead to mateial changes. Moe stingent occupant safety egulation may come in the fom of technology (i.e., aibags) o new mateial applicatiions. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 37

50 MAT- 1. Do you expect fedeal o state govenment legislation and egulation to equie the ecyclability of automotive mateials in the following aeas? Please give you foecast fo 22 and 27. Scale: 1 extemely likely 3 somewhat likely 5 not at all likely Othe egulatoy issues esponses: Set limits on some cuent mateials: 22-3, 27-2 Codes fo identifying metal souce of safety pats: 22-3, 27-1 Selected edited comments "Take-back sounds a little too budensome fo all but the most adical legislation/egulations. Excepting CFCs, outight bans seem unlikely. Although an entenched, libeal bueaucacy will continue to push fo egulations of many kinds, the auto industy and its supplies ae well infomed of the value of inceasing ecycling of mateials (to thei own benefit) and will wage a stong effot to maintain a sense of eason. Any egulation that negatively affects the bottom line will be fought. Bueaucats, whethe infomed o ignoant, do not seem to be able to esist the temptation to intefee with maket foces o people's choices. By 27, egulatoy action will be possible if elated industies do not act as expected in tems of ecycling and waste teatment. Economics and technology will tend towad ecycling only whee it makes sense, in concet with othe options that minimize envionmental impact like life cycle and incineation. Euope is moving aggessively towads ecyclability and end-of-life equiements. The U.S. infastuctue is handling these issues effectively in the maketplace today without egulation. 38 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

51 Fluids and ties ae being ecycled at a highe ate than othe pats because teclinologies and euse pattens aleady exist. Legislation which elates specifically to electic vehicles o hybid electic vehicles is vey likely because they contain hazadous chemicals. Fo the most pat, the cuent attention to ecycling of mateials is lagely a political issue with vey little eal envionmental impact. Stong copoate envionmental stewadship is vey impotant now and in the futue. Ove the next few yeas, the majoity of the! industy and govenment will ealize that the cuent ecycling emphasis is good stewadship. In the end, total life cycle analysis will be the tool that decides what is the best thing to do fo the envionment Recyclability will continue to be economically diven. Govenment can change economics by impacting landfill costs. Recyclability will have to be economically viable on all fonts in ode to be enacted. Requiing a minimum ecycled content may have a positive effect if the pice of ecycled iateial is less than o equal to aw mateials, with no decease in quality. "Take-back legislatioi will not occu due to the well-entenched automotive dismantling industy cuently in place. Recycling of feous metals fom scapped automobiles has been a fo-pofit business fo about as long as the ca has been aound (>I yeas)-it is the engine that dives automotive ecycling. To pomote the euse, ecycling, o ecovey of embodied enegy content of othe mateials, they too need to ensue that such activity is fo-pofit. At the pesent time, pofits fom the sale of the metallic faction of the vehicle cove much of the cost of disposing of the nonmetallic faction, Inceases in the disposal cost fo nonmetallics, andlo the pecentage of the vehicle's mass made up of nonmetallics theaten the commecial viability of the automotive ecycling business. Nonmetallics should pay thei own way when it comes to end-of-life disposition, by whateve means. Selected state govenments ae moe likely to impose ecycling. The disposal of ties and plastics will be handled by specifying minimum ecycled content. Discussion The panel expects the fedeal govenment to enact legislation o egulation iin the coming decade egading the disposal of automotive fluids and ties, the ecyclability of plastics, the establishment of unifom standads to facilitate sepaation, and a ban on some cuent automotive mateials. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 39

52 Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, thee ae thee aeas whee thei esponses ae statistically diffeent. Manufactues view legislation/egulation equiing minimum ecycled content, disposal of automotive fluids, and ecyclability as less likely than do the supplies. The table shows the mean esponses fo the manufactues and supplies. 1 Regulatoy Issue 1 Mean Response I I Legislationlegulation / Manufactues Supplies 1 Requied minimum content by 27 Regulation fo the disposal of automotive fluids (22) 1 Regulation fo the ecyclability of plastics (22) I Compaison of foecast: TECH42 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between technology and mateials panelists fo the issues and yeas shown in the following table. I Regulatoy Issues - 22 I I Technology / Mateials 1 I 2.9 I I Ban on some cuent automotive mateials 3.5 I I Establishment of unifom identificationlcoding standads fo mateials to facilitate sepaation I Financial penaltieslincentives based on ecycled I i content Specific egulation fo: Disposal of used ties 2.4 I I Recyclability of plastics/polymes 2.7 Regulatoy Issues - 27 "Take back egulations making manufactues esponsible fo final poduct disposition I i I 1 Fo all aeas whee thee is a significant diffeence, technology panelists ate the likelihood of legislation and egulation highe than mateials panelists. It should be noted that the lagest diffeence in mean values is only.6 ating points. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations The panel foecasts inceasing likelihood of legislative and egulatoy activity by the fedeal govenment egading the ecyclability of the automobile. In view of the expected egulatoy activity, manufactues will likely need to e-evaluate thei mateial selection pocess and make adjustments to allow fo a geate emphasis on the final disposition of thei vehicles i I - O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

53 Gemany has passed stingent ecycling egulations that will make manufactues esponsible fo the final disposition of thei vehicles. Although the panel does not expect such legislation in the United States, it is likely thee will be inceasing pessue to develop moe envionmentally fiendly vehicles. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 4 1

54 MAT- 11. The automotive manufactues base thei mateial decisions on many citeia, including a numbe of attibutes and chaacteistics of competing mateials. Please indicate you view of the impotance of each of these attibutes and chaacteistics in the mateial selection pocess ove the next decade. Scale: 1 extemely impotant 3 = somewhat impotant 5 not at all impotant AttibutelChaacteistic Mean Rating Mateials and pocessing cost Safety consideations Weight Waanty cost Designlstyling equiements Field expeience Coosion esistance Fomability Pefeence of vehicle puchase Envionmental issues Recyclability Disposal cost Ease of final disposition Othe attibuteslchaacteistics: Cost of noncompliance: 1 Custome sevice--die development, manufactuing, inventoy, claim esolution, plant quality pefomance: 1 High-tech image: 1 Investment: 1 Supplie capability: 2 Selected edited comments Again, cost will be a majo issue. Today we ae picing ouselves into smalle makets (affodability). As the automakes push moe design esponsibility down to the tie 1 supplies, they also intend to push the legallpoduct liability esponsibility to the tie 1 supplie. If this succeeds, supplies will have moe feedom to choose mateials but will be esponsible fo ecyclability, disposition, waanty, and envionmental issueslcompliance. Automotive manufactues take vehicle puchase pefeences vey seiously. Customes don't know o cae about mateial selection; they cae only about the attibutes and pefomance of the poduct. Compatibility with cuent manufactuing system is extemely impotant, 42 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

55 Cost dominates eveything, including the cost of not meeting egulations such ias CAFE and emissions. * Cost is cetainly the most impotant issue now and will continue to be unless thee is an "oil cisis" o if the fedeallstate govenments incease taxes on gasoline, which would incease cost and decease availability. In ode of pioity, automakes have egulatoy compliance at the top of thei list followed closely by cost. Eveything else is a poo thid o below. To the extent that some of the issues listed may become the focus of egulatoy activity, they would move immediately to the top of the list (e.g., ecyclability o ecycled content). Essentially, eveything else is viewed though a cost famewok. Evey poblem, be it safety, ease of disposition (o whateve) must be esolved in a cost-effective manne. Solutions that add cost need to be ethought. Discussion Panelists foecast that the cost of mateials and pocessing (1.1) is the most citical mateial selection citeia in the coming decade. Weight (I.7), safety consideations (I.7), cost of waanty (1.8), field expeience (1.9), and design styling equiements (1.9) ae also expected to be citical elements of the mateial selection pocess. It is impotant to note that all ;attibutes and chaacteistics listed ae foecast to be at least somewhat impotant in the next decadle. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manu~factues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the 1994 Delphi VII suvey. Cost of mateials aind pocessing has been ated as the most citical facto in all thee of the Delphi suveys. It is impotant to note that in the thee suveys, mateials cost and pocessing has inceased in impotance, both in compaison with pevious foecasts and with the othe attibutes. All othe attibutes ae consistent in the thee suveys. Stategic consideations The mateial selection pocess is vey complex and often pesents conflicting goals. The Delphi IX panel has made it vey clea that cost is expected to be the dive fo mateial slelection in the coming decade. Howeve, two points ae of impotance. Fist, all of the listed attibutes ae noted as at least somewhat impotant. Even if, as the panel indicates, cost is the most citical facto, thee is still an abundance of othe attibutes that must be accounted fo in the mateial selection pocess. Secondly, thee ae extenal factos that may quickly change the impotanc,e of any of the listed attibutes. Inceased CAFE o C2 emissions egulation would cetainly make weight a moe citical attibute, while egulation egading ecycling o othe envionmental challenges would also change the ating of seveal attibutes, Although cost is expected to be the citical facto, it is impotant to continually monito extenal factos fo changes that may have implications fo the mateial selection pocess. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 43

56 MAT- 12. What do you believe ae the five majo mateial issues and long-tem stategic consideations associated with futue mateial selection? (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Cost Continued cost pessues that equie patlsystem cost eductions that can be impacted by mateial though mateial cost, design andlo pocessing, Cost-incease pessue with mateials offeing geat potential fo impovement e e Cost (16) Cost at high volumes Cost competitiveness Cost is still the most impotant facto in selecting mateials because the vehicle pice wa becomes much moe fiece in ode to secue wold shae of sales. Cost of mateials (elative to benchmak best cuent pactice) to fabicate a pat o subsystem (5) Cost of mateials must be contained, and will be, as poductivity inceases continue. Cost of new light mateials-cuent demands ae low, causing high cost. Inceasing the demand equies significantly highe fuel cost o taxes on vehicle mass. Cost of pocessing Cost of the component Cost of the aw mateial Cost eduction (2) Cost eduction due to impoved manufactuing techniques Costlflexibility of tooling used to pocesslfabicate mateials Cost: the waanty cost to the automake Cost-effective mass eduction, cost vesus weight savings Cost-effective epaiability of nontaditional mateial extenal components Cost will be handled though a combination of design, mateial selection, and advance magnesium pocess Decease in cost while maintaining pefomance Establishment of an effective low-cost manufactuing system fo using aluminum fo body stuctues Long-tem cost stability fo mateials and especially aluminum fo body stuctues Low-cost manufactuing. 44 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

57 e a Manufactuing cost, new pocesses, and optimization at vaious poduction volumes Mateial pice, pice stability Moe cost effectively utilizing mateials in the manufactuing pocess (3), cost effectivenessvalue Pice (3) Picelcost atio Relationships of tooling and investment costs to shote poduct-development times and megaplatfoms Systems costs The acquisition cost (o puchase pice) of the aw mateial equied to fabicate the pat, subassembly, assembly and finally vehicle. The cost to the custome of puchasing, owning and maintaining, opeating and epaiing, and finally disposing of the vehicle. This includes the cost of insuance. The manufactuing cost equied to poduce the vehicle and its component pats, including yield (engineeed scap) and capital investment (tooling and poduction equipment) Tooling cost Use of existing capital Vehicle affodability (2) Envionmental Issues Balancing plastic ecycling equiements with the sepaation of the multitude of diffeent plastics used in a ca Elimination of hazadous chemical fom pocessing of mateials (e.g., plating opeations) Envionment (2) Establishment of ecycling systems that will ensue close-loop ecycling Likelihood fo legislative contol due to ecyclability Lowe VOC levels Maintaining competitive cost of plastics in light of ecyclingldisposal pessues Reduce manufactuing site emissions What estictions will be imposed in China fo clean ai, CAFE Recyclability Recyclability issues pushing families of mateials that can be ecycled togethe Recyclability-govenment mandates equiing euseldisposition Recyclability-if new mateial can be intoduced at some cost Recyclability/ecycling (19) O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 45

58 Recyclability-concens on shedde dust disposal (ease of teatment and cost) equie caeful selection of mateials Recycling, both sepaation and euse Sustainability mateial life cycle standads The technical (not pactical, economical) feasibility to ecycle Manufactuing Issues Ability to lend themselves to modula component-manufactuing efficiencies Assembly cost, achitectue, pats count, pocesses, and automation Availability of infastuctue to poduce the mateials and components fom them Comfot level of taking some mateials fom low volumes to high-volume poduction Compatibility of altenative mateials with existing assembly infastuctue. Composite joining and epaiability Ease of assembly and disassembly Ease of foming: high degee of pats consolidation equies flexibility of pocessinglfoming Ease of manufactuing Existence andlo establishment of appopiate infastuctues fo the high-volume supply of mateials Existing sunk capital focing poduct design into a "Refom-Plus-Assembly" appoach vesus the option plastics bing of net shape poduction Flexibility of pocesses using selected mateials Fo plastics, ovecoming the esistance fom OEMs to phase out investments in steel stamping Fom stability Fomability-we must evise manufactuing pocessing to stay competitive Fomability of highe stength mateials Hazadous mateials (at any point in the supply chain) Joining of dissimila mateials to affod geate use of mateials in specific locations Lage use of cay-ove pats limits the mateial selection Manufactuability-pocesses pimaily developed by supplies Manufactuability-obust Pocessability Pocessability/Poductivity Pocessable in existing assets Reliable joining of lightweight mateials fo stuctues 46 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

59 Mateial Popeties Pefomance equiement focing a mateials change Pefomance-new Tempeatue capability mateial development Themallmechanical popeties Unifom popety definition and chaacteization Updating specifications established ove 5 yeas ago--feous and nonfeous chemical compositions; updated specifications would povide close chemical toleances that can be eadily met today by most mills Coosion Issues Coosion esistance (2) Coosion esistance (long life fo nonmetals) Coosion esistance of the mateial o the pocess to make it so Inceased waanty peiods fo anticoosion Loss of function due to coosion of stuctual and electonic mateials Safety Cash equiements (head impact) Cashlsafety-lighte smalle cas and tucks equiing engineeed stuctues Familiaity Ease of getting new mateial popeties (univesal database) Educating OEM designes on oveall advantages of plasticslcomposites Getting commecial expeience fo new mateials Insufficient knowledge in the tie supply base (eoutsoucing moe to a smalle numbe) Lack of education in altenative mateials-mateials science emains pimaily metallugy vesus "geneic" mateials science. This lack of awaeness and education is endemic though the entie engineeing cuiculum, and stats with the pofessos and thei lack of expeience and expetise. OEM engineeing capability is limited and being tansfeed to supplies wh~o need moe education and bette modeling tools fo design, manufactuing, assembly, and duability. Poduct designe competence to utilize these altenatives to thei fullest extent Popely defining poduct equiements to chose "ight" mateial Unknown liability isk fo mateials with failue modes that diffe fom today's mateials Incease in stength and stiffness Stength (2) O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 47

60 Stength-stiffness and impact Stength-to-weight atios (2) Lightweight Ability to incopoate a mateial into a subsystem that lowes system weight (it is not the mass of the mateial itself) Lowe weight mateials to enhance emission o CAFE will nomally only be intoduced if new poducts come in with cost eduction-not likely to pay fo weight swap with govenment weight class citeia Mass eduction (4), Weight eduction (15) Recognition of the value of mateials and especially lightweighting on life-cycle cost Supply base has little expeience in lightweight components and little inteest in acquiing expeience since OEMs won't pay, since customes do not peceive that low weight is a valuable vehicle attibute. Weight minimization Weight, fuel economy, and less C2 emission ae the most impotant key wods duing the next decade. o Weight--except in the U.S., auto designes have always stived fo low weight. Real pogess will only be made with lightweight mateials. Weight--goes with cost Weight-impotant fo fuel economy and emission stategy Weight-significant Othe Ability to consolidate pats weight eductions will be equied fo fuel economy impovement. Adhesive bonding of stuctued joints in the body stuctue Aesthetic design o Altenate fuel equiement-battey technology, highe combustion tempeatues-afte teatment systems Appeaance (2) Availability of mateials (3) Availability of the mateials ove the wold having the same mateials at plants oveseas makes the vehicle development pocess vey simple. Availability-mateials like magnesium Availability-must have multiple souces of supply (2) Ceamics fo tubines Colo ability 48 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

61 Compatibility among mateialslfluidslcomponentsldesigns Compatibility with othe mateials Compatibility with othe mateials and suface teatments Compute modeling able to pedict pefomance of selected mateials Custome (intenal and extenal) acceptance, duability, quality, eliability Custome pefeenceldesign and styling Design and analysis expeience--fo specific mateials and pocesses, especially systems integation issues Development time Duability (4) Duabilityleliability Evolution of a seconday magnesium alloy supply which meets cuent high pefomance ductility equiements Fiendly inteio mateials that meet duability equiements fo safety Global standadization of mateials Govenment egulations focing a mateial change Highe pefomance and longe tem duability Long-tem field histoy, especially fatigue behavio Mateial changes1 impact on custome expectations (based on taditional mateial!;) Mateial pefomance unde expanding waanty tagets and inceasingly sevee opeating envionments Moe aggessivelstylish designs demand change in mateials due to mateial fominglpocessinglpackaging limitations Multifunctionality-pats eduction One supplie base fo all mateials in the plant Pefomance-ability to function is a given-listing efes to ability to achieve impovements Reliabilitylwaanty Risk avese natue of automotive company design and engineeing staffs Same as today-manufactuability, ecyclability pocess, duability, custome pleasability, cost, disposal, Technologies, such as GFRC, may offe elegant engineeing solutions, but thei application within the design, manufactue, epailsevice infastuctue of today's automakes make thei boad application extemely difficult. Use of plastic in the fuel system because of susceptibility to loss of stength due to elevated tempeatue O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 49

62 Value of scap metal-japan has done vey well with no aw mateial. Waanty Discussion The panelists most fequently list cost as the most citical long-tem stategic consideation fo mateial selection. They also foecast inceased engineeing equiements, manufactuability, envionmental issues, and ecyclability as impotant long-tem stategic challenges. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations Thoughout the 1998 Delphi suvey, the mateials panel leaves little doubt that they believe cost will be the most impotant stategic challenge facing the industy in the coming decade. The challenge to maintain affodability will demand that industy paticipants continue to focus on cost eduction. Howeve, those who concentate on cost at the expense of othe attibutes do so at geat peil. The potential of sticte CAFE and emissions egulations, combined with the wok of the Patneship fo a New Geneation of Vehicles, has positioned the Noth Ameican automotive industy on the edge of a new mateials paadigm. Recyclability pesents a vaiety of challenges. Cuently, technologies exist to ecycle most plastics; yet, because the plastics-eclamation infastuctue and subsequent euse of eclaimed mateials is not economically viable, most plastics ecycling pojects continue to be less than successful. Unless an outside foce (govenment egulation, oil-pice shock, ecyclability equiements, etc.) diects the automotive industy, the mateial-selection pocess will continue to be cost-diven. Although thee will be a continued effot to incopoate new mateials applications, new mateials will be consideed a viable altenative only if they ae cost competitive with cuent mateials. A wide vaiety of esponses was given by panelists. We uge the eade to eview the list caefully. Even a aely mentioned facto may be a clue to new thinking in the industy. 5 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

63 ~ MAT-13. Please indicate the level of influence that vaious depatments o activities have on mateial selection in you company. Please espond fo only the categoy (i.e., OEM, Component Supplie o Mateial Supplie) that app~lies to you company. I Scale: I = vev influential 3 = somewhat influential 5 = not at all infltjentiall Depatmentslactivities Poduct engineeing Mean Rating Component Supplies Mateial engineeing , Manufactuing I Envionmental / Maketinglsales i Finance OEM Mateial 1 Sevice ~ Govenment elations Othe depatmentslactivities: Copoate policy: 2 Custome satisfaction: 2 Supplies: 2 Selected edited comments I As a aw-mateial supplie, we attempt to influence all of the above aeas at tie 2l'tie IIOEMs. 1.2 Design and manufactuing planning clealy have the lead. Fo many components, mateial selection is the povince of the Tie 1 supplies ,, I assume this means the selection of mateials that we wish to supply to OEMs and component supplies. In many instances, safety can be handled by a vaiety of mateials via good design. Inteios will equie mateials to be pat of the design solution. In my company, saleslmaketing pesonnel ae also enginees dealing with custome puchasing and engineeing goups. Sales and mateials engineeing decide whiat poducts ae applicable with input fom poduct enginees, manufactuing and (to a lesse deglee) finance. It completely depends on who is esponsible fo the design of the pat. Fo "black box" pats, the component supplie has pactically all the influence on the choice of mateisils (i.e., we, as the OEM, have vey little oppotunity fo input). Ou poducts ae highly specialized. We coil coat (steel o aluminum) with paint, adhesives, lubicants, and film laminates. It is the esponsibility of field technical sales to ascetain O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 5 1

64 e specification and poduct equiements fom the custome and then wok with mateials enginees to select the poduct that will satisfy those equiements. Poduct engineeing and mateial engineeing play dominant oles in mateial selection, with stong ecommendations o equiements fom vehicle evaluation depatments (duability testing) and puchasing depatments. Poduct engineeing and mateials engineeing ae the most influential in selecting mateials. They confe with othes befoe poposing mateial candidates. Poduct engineeing still must make final decision on all the tade-offs. Two key stakeholdes ae mateial engineeing and puchasing. Puchasing bings in the aw-mateial cost facto and supplie ideas based on supplie's manufactuingltechnology expetise. Discussion The panelists indicate that poduct and mateial engineeing ae the most influential functions in the mateial-selection pocess. The panel also views manufactuing and puchasing as vey influential. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, the manufactues (1.2) indicate that poduct engineeing is moe influential than do the component supplies (1.8) and the mateial supplies (1.9). Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations Given the emphasis that the 1998 Delphi IX mateials panel has placed on cost eduction, the fact that poduct and mateial engineeing ae ated as the most influential activities in the mateial selection pocess is somewhat supising. Conventional wisdom states that puchasing has a stong, even ovepoweing, dominance in the automotive industy. The esults of this question indicate that puchasing's influence may be less than convention indicates. It does appea, at least in the view of the mateial enginees suveyed, that thee ae fou activities that stongly influence the selection pocess. Most mateials ae defined by the equiements of the pat, which is in tun set by poduct engineeing with suppot fom mateials and manufactuing expets. Whee a pemium pice mateial is poposed, geneally this must be appoved based on a stong business case. Clealy many functions paticipate in the mateial-function pocess, yet it is clea that the dominant ones ae poduct and mateials engineeing. 52 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

65 MAT-14. What mateials issues will pesent the most significant cliallenges o oppotunities to the Noth Ameican automotive industy in the conning decade? Please conside all aspects of the business, fom concept design to manufactuing, use and disposal. (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Challenges (issues): Cost Issues Affodable lighte weight vehicles Aluminum manufactuing-low cost Availability of stable, low-cost aluminum sheet fo the high volume poduction of fuel-efficient vehicles, especially PNGV vehicles Cost (6) Cost (as a component of educing vehicle cost) Cost and availability components by tie 1 supply base knowledge Cost of development Cost of lightweight mateials Cost eduction Cost to puchase-pice Cost-effective designs of vehicle Cost-effective mass eduction (2) Cost-effective use and disposal fo nontaditional mateials is based on designing with these goals in mind. When this fact is ecognized, the ealities with espect to bolth of these is changed dastically fom the common peception. Cost-efficient lightweight stuctues fo fuel efficiency. Designing fo system cost, not dollas-pe-pound. mateial cost Development of light-gauge, dent-esistant o bake-hadenable steel with good ductility Dimensional stability Keeping costs down while shotening the time fo poduct development Low cost--component integation Mateials manufactuing cost inceases Minimize capitalllabo utilization O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 53

66 Oveall cost effectiveness Reduce numbe of patslmoe simplification in designs-educe cost! Reducing the cost of lightweight mateials Reducing the vehicle cost Solutions that ae not cost-effective ae nonstates The cost of aluminum: mateial, fabication, and sevice epais The cost of themal stability in plastics (painting and sevice) Use of existing capital Envionmental Issues Eliminating all hexavalent chomium-if by 22 takes effect Eliminating all PVC Envionmental issues in the poduction and pocessing of mateials the poposed EU diective to eliminate these mateials Envionmental: Mateials that pesent envionmentalldisposal poblems (e.g., GFR themosets) ceate one poblem while solving anothe. Moe envionmentally fiendly and lowe cost manufactuing pocesses Moe envionmentally fiendly mateiallvehicle Reducing emissions Removal of mateialslpocesses that use hamful (eal o peceived) chemicals Substitutions fo mateials of concen Tighte emission standads equie (1) high efficiency catalyst to educe NOx unde lean condition, (2) impoved fuel to assue pope combustion and catalyst activity. Recyclability Maintaining value of ecycled mateial fom the new aluminum-alloy steam Meeting envionmental demands fo ecycling such as using a limited numbe of plastic polymes while meeting design, styling, and competitive objectives Recyclability (9) Recyclability-eusability Recycling infastuctue Recycling-get the plastics issues solved Staying ahead of the envionmental issue (disposallecycling) to avoid legislative equiements Ultimate disposition Zeo o minimal envionmental impact 54 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

67 Mateials/manufactuing issues As the Noth Ameican auto industy becomes moe global, issues of global mateials soucing, specifications, and egulations will aise. Catalyst development fo high-efficiency engines Ceamics fo engines Compatibility between mateials pocesses Compatible mateials used in the manufactue of component systems Competitive (to steel) high-volume costs Competitive foeign pice pessue Complexity-undestanding the cost of complexity is becoming inceasingly impo1:ant. Coosion esistance in the pesence of inceasing seveity of envionmental conditions Fomability (2) Fomability of highe stength mateials Foming nontaditional mateials Impove ductility of aluminum alloys Joining methods fo new mateials and fo diffeent mateials Joining-educe spot welds, incease adhesive bonding Less enegy-demanding mateials thoughout the whole life of vehicles, fom aw mateial poduction to eclamation of the mateial Limited installed manufactuing base fo nonfeous automotive components Magnesium--cost and availability Manufactuing pocess contol Manufactuing with altenative mateials is heavily constained by existing malss poduction capitalization, which dastically cutails poduct design options fo these mateials. The oppotunity to enginee cas and tucks cost-effectively with possible featues a~d advantages that plastics can enable is lost due to this "stuctual" obstacle. A new company could "end un" existing companies and bing out damatically new and diffeent poducts since they wouldn't be constained by this same self-imposed obstacle. Mateial changes impact on manufactuing capital investment Mateial consolidation Mateials development that epesents aeospace pefomance at auto picing Metal-matix composites Poving stength and duability of plastics Rapid tooling to meet 18 to 24 month design to manufactuing time lines Design Issues O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 55

68 Decease vehicle mass educing the vehicle weight (6) Design enginee knowledge of plastic altenative fo system solutions Design guidelines fo lightweight metals components Design optimization Educatingltainingldeveloping "plastics technologies" at the OEMs Engineeing models fo integating and optimizing design and manufactuing fo lightweight, duable components. Expetise in designing with altenative mateials; ability to couple taditional and nontaditional mateials in component and assembly design Leaning cuve with new mateial in poduct design and manufactuing Lightweight Systems design guidelines to accommodate lightweight metal components Weight efficiency Weight eduction to meet tighte fuel economy Weight eductions using essentially the same mateials (e.g., cabon steels, stainless steels) with some exceptions Othe Issues Expot oppotunities Futhe minimizing effects of coosionlenvionmental degadation Global availability of mateials Global economic stability and gowth Govenment estiction of some mateials Govenmental contol Highe exhaust tempeatues Highe vehicle duability-highe Inceasing fuel economy (2) Longe-life catalysts Pat consolidation Pefeence of puchase-technical Repaiing nonsteel components Supplie infastuctue Supply base changinglshifting Systems integation pefomance mateialslpoducts beakthough could change entie maket 56 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

69 Vesatility of application Oppotunities (solutions): Cost Issues Accountability fo system cost Aluminum manufactuing-low cost Cost-invest moe time and enegy developing solutions using mateials that ae cost-effective and educe the R&D on mateials that pomise solutions, but always at some cost pemium. Development of new stuctual mateials, especially composites, that ae cost-effective fo automotive application Low cost-component integation Reduce aw mateials cost; need new appoach to cost aw mateials supply. Reduce tie 2 supply cost. The potential fo inceasing aluminum sheet availability at competitive cost by using continuous casting Envionmental Issues Demonstating safe, envionmentally clean enegy ecovey fom automotive shedde esidue Development of ecycling technologies Downsizing-fuel and emission impovements Envionmental-avoid mateials that bing envionmental poblems, eithe futue o cuent, with them. With development time plus vehicle life in excess of 15 yeas, betting1 on technical solutions to envionmental poblems being available at ecycling time is moe of a gamble than is cuently appeciated. Facilitate mateial disposal at end of life by having systems made fom compatible mateials, leading to an incease in mateial ecovey and a decease in mateials being landf lled. Fuel economy and envionmental legislation pesents oppotunities Moe ceative pocesses/ideas that have "geen" in mind fom the beginning will allow fo "cleane" manufactuing and a "cleane" vehicle. Recyclability (2) Recycling--get the plastics issues solved Redesigning components and systems fo ecycling and dismantling Vehicle dismantling Mateiaidmanu fact uing issues A good method of joininglepaiing polyme matix composites Adhesive bonding of joints in body stuctues will esult in lighte sections and ilnpoved body stiffness O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 57

70 Advances in adhesive-bonding cue time Application of full life-cycle analysis (LCA) on mateials is inevitable to gain the appoval of the consume. Change in method of design and assembly Custom analytical softwae pogams fo systems Develop families of solutions using mateials that have application ove a boad ange of design and manufactuing poblemslsituation; avoid one-off niche solutions that polifeate special conditionslequiements. Eliminate painting o bypass high-temp paint opeation; design molecula achitectue. Fundamental eseach and impoved pocesses to allow fomability advances lmpoved heat teatment on steels, use of highly integated pats design, easy-to-use joining (fastening) technology and highly contolled polyme stuctue contibute to the use of lighte mateials. lmpoved manufactuing technology Joining with bonding, lase o E.B. welding Magnesium-stength though wok hadening Manufactuinglpocess development-automation Moe eseach into ulta high-speed machining New bonding methods use of adhesives Rapid pototyping and atificial intelligence will escalate Rapid pototyping o altenative means to get to final tooling ASAP with minimum costs Reduce o eliminate assembly plant e-coat systems (new facilities, not existing equipment) by using pepimed steel/aluminum sheet and adhesive bonding o use of weldable pimes Supeio foming techniques fo nonfeous metals Lightweight Mateials Decease in mass (inceased use of aluminum, magnesium, themoplastics, and composites in lieu of feous mateials) Development of cost-effective lightweight mateials-feedstock Weight efficiency Weightsavings Mateial-Specific Responses Aluminum-flexibility of design, ecyclability Ceamics, the mateials of the futue (fo the last fou decades) and manufactuing Families of mateials that can be used fo vaious applications in each vehicle will gain favo. 58 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

71 Gowth of HSLA steels, especially stainless High-stength steels and innovative designs Incease use of aluminum, magnesium, themoplastics, and composites in lieu of feous mateials Moe aluminum, plastic, pecoated metal usage Plastics and lightweight metals (magnesium, aluminum) can captue maket shae fom conventional mateials. Use of highe alloyed stainless steel and aluminum as well as moe coated mateials Othe Issues Education Educationltaining in mateialslmateial popeties Electic calfuel-cell ca would have some new mateial equiements Emeging maket enty (India, South Ameica, etc.) Finite element analysis (2) Geate use of the pedictive powes of compute analysis Highe pefomance nonfinancial poducts, especially fo elevated tempeatue applicationsfatigue will be a big aea of development lmpovedlinnovative design solutions Intoduction of new concepts to keep the active site of catalyst fom being deteioated unde lean conditions Longe useful life Long-tem supply contact Mateial supplies developing stong knowledge base to aid industy Mateials that can be molded o fomed into a few components, eplacing many components with diffeent functions, will gain favo. Moe effot to undestand mateials issues and constuct models; lowe cost computes. Must come fom R&D. Oveall effots ae now not enough. Neodymium fo magnetic applications equies shielding not yet invented. Ca~n be used fo powe geneation. New catalyst fomulations New designs utilizing novel appoaches to achieve stength equiements using less mateial New supplies investing in new technology Open-minded thinking to evaluate tue oppotunities and costs fo altenative solutions Optimized stuctue designs to educe amount of mateials O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 59

72 Plastic designlengineeing pogams needed at majo univesities Popety datalmateial models fo commodity mateials RFGIRFD with much less polyaomatics and sulfu content Stat up a new OEM to poduce composite vehicles The existing unskilled capacity fo the volume poduction of low-cost aluminum sheet Willingness to implement new solutions and not constain thei design by existing paadigms Discussion The panel lists a wide aay of mateial-elated issues that will pesent oppotunities and challenges in the coming decade. The esponses can be placed into fou geneal categoies: cost eduction, design, envionmental, and manufactuing. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations The panel's esponses to this question eaffim the impotance of cost to the Noth Ameican automotive industy. Thoughout the mateials volume, it is appaent that cost is a vey impotant issue in mateial selection. Howeve, it would be misleading to suggest that cost is the only impotant facto. To emain competitive in the coming decade, paticipants in the Noth Ameican automotive industy must continue to develop efficient design, manufactuing, and envionmental stategies that allow fo cost-effective solutions. Many of the design and manufactuing concens aised by the panel ae due in pat to the lack of comfot in the pocesses necessay to maximize the benefits of lightweight mateials. This pesents an outstanding oppotunity fo poactive supplies. The development of infomation esouces that allow fo quick and eliable infomation tansfe should be an integal pat of any mateials-awaeness stategy. Concomitantly, assembles must be willing to openly evaluate mateials based on the meit of the mateial. 6 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

73 MAT-15. A numbe of automotive industy expets suggest that the issue of coosion has been satisfactoily esolved. Fo the following systems, do ;you agee o disagee with that analysis? 3 = neithe agee no disagee System Cosmetic Coosion Powetain Mean 1 Rating Selected edited comments Chassis Pefoation Coosion 1 Powetain I 2. I I Chassis Bette chip-esistant paint is equied. Bake coosion is still a poblem. Chassis and unde-body pats still need to incease to match the body's pefomalce level. Chassis coosion in undebody systems is still a concen. Also, a eplacement needs to be found fo chome plating fo envionmental easons. Cosmetic and pefoation coosion fo coolant, fuel, bake, and tansmission components has not kept up with the potection of body panels. Dissimila metals, such as magnesium vs. steel, and some aluminum alloys ceate poblems. It is still vey evident fom the appeaance of cas that ae six yeas old o olde that the coosion of body panels is still a majo cosmetic issue, especially in the nothen aeas of Noth Ameica that ae subject to snow. Moe coosion-esistant mateials ae needed fo muffles. New coolants fo powetain ae equied. Once the potective paintlpime suface is cacked, exposing steel, it will stat to coode. Postpainted chassis and powetain pats ae done with inadequate cleaning and peteatment systems. As a esult, paint pefomance is compomised. Steel still usts when paint is dipped. The aveage age of vehicles on the oad is at an all-time high. The sales of used vehicles have inceased and ae pojected to ovetake new vehicles. Thee is a substantial segment of the 2.5 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

74 population that neve buys new cas. Cas still "ust out". The "expets" that say coosion is "esolved" pobably all dive two-yea lease cas. The cost of cas and tucks is high enough that it is easonable to assume many people will be keeping thei vehicles unning longe without tading-thus lengthening the "coosion potection window." I do not think existing systems will give that extended, geate-than-1-yea life this will equie. Consequently, I believe many of the newe vehicles that ae just eaching that age now will be disappointing to many ownes; it will be inteesting to see the esult. The cost to pevent coosion is still too high. The inducement of galvanic coosion by the intoduction of aluminum will equie exta steps and cost to pevent. The magin of safety and the length of potection could be longe wee it not fo cost limitations. The technical issues pobably have been satisfactoily esolved but fo vaious easons, including cost, the solutions ae often not implemented. The unde-vehicle and unde-hood cosmetic coosion pefomance still lags the body in field pefomance. The tue voice of the custome in this aea has yet to be head, and theefoe the eal value of impovement in these aeas is questionable. The additional cost fo impoved unde-vehicle and unde-hood potection is often a tough sell in today's competitive maket. The used ca maket will tell the good fom the failed. Again, smalle sales volumes in the futue ae expected due to cost; theefoe stonge used ca makets will esult. Thee needs to be continuous impovement in all aeas, but solutions fo taditional designs exist. As moe aluminum and magnesium ae used, thee will be leaning cuves as we lean, using vaious new applications. Today's pimes ely on mateials of concen: lead, chome, etc. Powetain elies heavily on electonics, which ae also subject to coosion. Unde-hood white coosion is still a poblem. We still see significant coosion on body panels. Aluminum adiatos and heate coes ae still being eplaced. Light tuck fames ae not adequately potected fom coosion. With the inceased pefoation waanty peiod, field suveys indicate that the waanty is not being achieved. Cosmetic coosion is bette but still a concen at five yeas. Discussion The panelists agee that coosion avoidance has been impoved; yet comments suggest that thee is the need fo futhe impovement. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. 62 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

75 Stategic consideations Significant pogess has been made in coosion potection in the past decade. Howeve, significant wok emains to be done befoe the coosion issue can be consideed satisfactoily esolved. Effective coosion potection involves a systems appoach. It is citical to conside mateials, pocess, and design as fundamental to a successful coosion stategy. Failue to adequately addess any one of these elements will incease the susceptibility of a vehicle to coosion. As the use of a vaiety of dissimila metals inceases, the inteaction between these mateis~ls will equie inceased attention. Also, the inceased application of plastics will play an impotant ole in oveall coosion potection. The technology and mateials ae available to impove coosion potection, yet many ae not implemented due to cost concens. To emain at a competitive advantage, it is essential fo those involved with metals pone to coosion to continue to develop moe cost-effective coosion potection systems. The comment indicating sevice life is inceasing is cetainly due in pat to impoved coosion potection. Panelists fom the maketing volume foecast a continuing incease in the aveage age of vehicles, which suggests they foesee continued impovement in coosion potection. -- O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 63

76 MAT-16. Please estimate the numbe of yeas befoe panel pefoation will develop in a seveely coosive envionment such as Detoit o Pittsbugh fo Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks poduced in 1997,22 and 27. Yeas to Panel Pefoation Median Response lntequatile Range Selected edited comments Anticoosion teatments and selection of the mateials based on electochemical consideations on the fastening stuctue will take cae of the coosion poblems. Cuent ust pevention technologies will be continued until 22. On the othe hand, fom the standpoint of life-cycle analysis, countemeasue fo pefoation will be enhanced so that it is expected that moe pefoation-esistant cas will be seen. I do not expect much activity by U.S. companies unless pushed by foeign competition. Today's condition is faily good. I see no change unless aluminum is adopted in which case the time to pefoation will be geate than 1 yeas. It is impacticable to go beyond 2 yeas, but by 27, it could pobably be done. Many cost-saving measues ae educing the capability to achieve the tagets. My answe eflects the inceased use of less coosion-susceptible mateials such as aluminum and polyme composites. Requiements in this aea continue to be 1 yeas minimum, but the pefomance lies in the pope execution of not only mateial selection, but also the design of the pats and the paint and sealing pocesses. Getting all thee is necessay fo meeting a 1-yea goal. Seams, epais, and chipping damage will impove-moe unifom paint application is key The incease I note is due to the pojected switch to plastic o aluminum panels aising the aveage, not an impovement in steellcoatings. Thee will be a continued effot to add othe pocessing aids beyond galvanized steel. Thee will be continuous pogess in impoving pefoation in panels. All designslmateials selections ae at the same high level. These figues epesent aveage pefomance; thee will always be ca-to-ca vaiation, and some customes will expeience infeio pefomance. Discussion The panel foecast that fo both 22 and 27 the length of time befoe panel pefoation will be 1 yeas. 64 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

77 Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manuf'actues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations Although the panel foecasts an incease in length of time befoe panel pefoation, thee appeas to be little incentive to incease the cuent six yea, 6, mile coosion waanty. Effective long-tem coosion potection is dependent on a thoough systems appoach. Accoding to seveal comments, technology is available to incease the length of time befoe panel pefoation; howeve, manufactues must weigh the benefits of longe lasting panels with the associated costs. The foecast of a 1-yea no-panel pefoation may have its most significant affect on the used ca maket. Accoding to the Ameican Automobile Manufactues Association (AAMA), the aveage age of a passenge ca is 8.5 yeas. Howeve, the length of time that an aveage new ca puchase owns a new ca is consideably less than that. Fo many new ca buyes, and cetainly individuals that lease vehicles, ust is only a consideation because it may affect used ca pices. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 65

78 MAT-17 What pecentage change in total vehicle weight do you anticipate by 22 and 27? Please also indicate plus o minus (please efeence all estimates to 1996 base). I Total Vehicle Weight Median Response lntequatile Range Selected edited comments Although weight incease will be expected due to countemeasues fo collision safety, impovement in design, adoption of high-stength steels and adoption of lighte mateials will educe the weight moe than the weight gain. By 22, thee will be some eduction due to the dopping of lage cas and the intoduction of smalle SUVs and minivans. I believe thee will be a eduction due to PNGV vehicles enteing the maketplace by 27. Consume pefeences will dictate, and by 27, the SUVItuck boom will have long passed its peak, leading to a mix with lighte vehicles. Fuel economy will push mass eduction, and some vehicles will be downsized though impoved packagingldesign. Inceased gas taxes will put downwad pessue on vehicle weight fo bette fuel economy. Thee appeas to be a dimming of inteest in SUVs. If this is eally a tend, ca sales will incease which will enable engineeing to focus on weight eduction on a lage platfom base, pehaps geneating faste esults. Inceased maket shae of heavie vehicles will esult in inceased weight by 22; howeve, by 27 inceased vehicle fuel economy equiements will necessitate vehicle weight eduction. Lage size demands fom the maketplace continue to keep vehicle weight highe than in othe aeas of the wold. The change will be diven mainly by impoving fuel economy and emission MY equiements. The govenment will dictate vehicle weight in the futue. Custome demands will continue to equest heavie vehicles (moe content, lage sizes). The incease in "wold cas" will lead to pessue fo weight eductions in cas sold in the U.S. Also, some lightweight actions will become moe cost-effective and thus have widened implementation. The potion will depend on enegy cost! The pessue fo additional equipment will continue. Gas supply and pollution issues dive mass down afte 2. Thee exist no clea fuel economy tagets to be integated into new models scheduled befoe 22. But fo the vehicles beyond that, new tagets will equie moe than a 1 pecent incease in fuel economy, based on the ageement made on a C2 level. Thee is no consume demand to educe vehicle weight. No CAFE changes ae anticipated unless an oil cisis occus. 66 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

79 Thee is not much incentive to lowe weight as long as fuel pices emain low. Thee will be an incemental change to lightweight poducts by 22 with impoving technology moving that ate of change highe by 27. These ae aveages fo all vehicles. My estimate by majo segment ae: Passenge ca: 22, - 1; 27, -15; Light tucks: 22, +5; 27, +5. * These numbes may vay if the PNGV is ealized. This is diven by consume tastes-not some big industy stategy, as is fuel economy, Total aveage vehicle weight will incease due to continued incease in (heavie) light tuck sales. Tucks will see the most change to meet CAFE. Weight and size inceases will tun back down in 22 (especially SUV); peliiomance and envionmental impact will dive the 27 change. Weight is continuing to climb fo the Noth Ameican fleet, despite selected inc~eased use of lightweight mateials. This is because of the incease in content and consume selection towad heavie light tucks, vans, and spot utility vehicles. Also, an aging population has deceased the demand fo lighte enty level vehicles. Political/social pessue on the envionment plus poducts offeed by Euopean and Japanese OEMs will foce longe-tem weight eduction. Weight will continue to be educed though new lightweight mateial and integated design. Plastics will offe the most weight savings. With the inceasing demand of RVs (including SUVs) and 4WD, total weight eduction will be patly offset, but the pessue of educing C2 becomes moe influential, esulting in the educed size of body and lage use of lightweight mateials. Discussion Panelists foecast vehicle weight to decease by 2 pecent by 22 and 5 pecent by 27 Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in this fom in the 1996 Delphi VIII. The 1998 Delphi IX panel foecasts less dastic weight eduction than did the pevious panel. The table shows the shot- and long-tem foecasts fo the Delphi Vlll and Delphi IX panels Delphi Vlll 1998 Delphi IX Weight Reduction Foecasts Shot-tem -5% (2) -2% (22) Long-tem -1% (25) -5% (27) O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 67

80 Stategic consideations Govenment egulation is the most significant dive of vehicle weight eduction. The implementation of moe stingent egulation would likely lead to an inceased effot to educe mass. If ecently announced cabon dioxide eduction goals ae to be met by intenal combustion engines, the automotive industy will likely aggessively pusue lightweight mateials. In light of these goals, the foecast of a 5 pecent eduction by 27 may be somewhat consevative. It is impotant to note that the pecent change in vehicle weight is a function of many factos. Howeve, one of the most impotant faetos is aised by the fist selected comment. As asked, this question may be intepeted to be highly dependent on the sales mix of the fleet. The ecent tend towads tucks has geatly inceased the aveage vehicle weight of the total fleet. Baing an incease in light tuck CAFE, o a significant movement by consumes away fom tucks, the highe pecentage of light tucks could continue to aise the aveage vehicle weight. The factos involved in weight eduction ae staight fowad: impoved design, lightweight mateials, and size eduction. Manufactues will seek to optimize the balance between these factos in ode to achieve custome satisfaction at the lowest cost. 68 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

81 MAT-18. Assuming CAFE equiements as noted in the table below, what is the value today in cuent dollas pe pound of weight saved to a vehicle manufactue in ode to meet a vehicle's allowable weight class? What will it be in 22 and 27? Please do not adjust fo inflation Cuent CAFE Value 27.5 npg $ Median Response npg $1.OO 27 3 npg $1.25 Passenge Ca npg 27.5 npg $2. $.3811.OO lntequatile Range npg 3 npg $ Median Response Light Tuck lntequatile Range Cuent CAFE / 2.7 npg 24. npg 2.7 mpg 2.7 npg 24. npg Selected edited comments 27.5 npg fo both passenge cas and light tucks can be met by applying mateial eplacement with a mino incease of the pice. Howeve a 2 pecent incease will equie moe igoous changes in the pats design and mateial selection, and thus cost much moe. At cuent fuel economy levels, mateial selectionldesignlmanufactuing oppotunities still exist, so we won't need a diective on mass eduction. As standads incease we'll un out of costeffective solutions and the pemium will go up. Today thee ae pemium mateiial applications used, but they ae still subject to eplacement with altenative solutions (design, mateial). Cost incease of mateials must be compensated with the eduction of othe cost-though pats integation o pocess impovement and othes, but the incentives fo the weight savings should be offeed. Even if an OEM said it was woth a cetain amount, they still wouldn't pay it! Even small inceases in light tuck CAFE ae going to be vey difficult to meet. I don't think this is a meaningful question-a pound isn't woth anything unless the vehicle is eady fo poduction and it exceeds the equiement. Then, fo a shot peiod of time due to the CAFE mandate, a pound is woth a lot, but only until a coected design can be? implemented that gets the weight down without having to pay fo systems that ae pohibitive. In Septembe 1997, the CARB began discussion of a poposal to aise tuck CAFE to 27.5 npg by 21. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 69

82 It appeas that this goup is ovestating the benefits gained fom most savings-to achieve the above npg impovements in 27 would esult in vey lage mass eductions which would damatically incease vehicle cost. Othe means will be equied to compliment mass eductions to meet the types of equiements anticipated above. OEMs ae less likely to ewad fo weight savings ideas. It has now become an expected pefomance simila to quality standads. OEMs do not effectively ewad supplies fo weight eductions. Passenge ca (27-35 mpg) may need 2-3 pecent weight savings, and this may dive the incentive to smalle tucks/autos. This value will be dependent on the penalty dollas pe vehicle as a faction of how fa the fleet is fom the equiement. This estimate would be helpful in making a ealistic estimate. The "step function" built into CAFE makes this question difficult to answe meaningfully. The values in dollas-pe-pound ae ambiguous. If the vehicle weight is in the middle of the weight class, then the dollas-pe-pound value is low. Howeve, if the vehicle is on the bink of moving up o down in the weight class, then the dollas-pe-pound is much geate. The latte scenaio may have a value of up to $5./lb., with the fome having a value of $.511b. Thee ae always design options--downsize vehicle, bette analysis etc. But moe pessue will be in place, so pemiums will be paid. Thee is no cost penalty (value fo mass eduction) acceptable today due to cost pessues. We will only pay a penalty if we miss a weight class and have to get weight out at the last minute. Why would a vehicle manufactue assume that taking weight out would cost money? The ULSAB poject povides ample evidence that weight and cost eduction ae possible togethe. Futhe, assuming that the vehicle manufactue has now taken all of the weight out (costeffectively with steel) that he can, and is still in touble, the answe to you question depends upon the volume of the vehicle in question and the status of that manufactue's fleet. In fact, the question eally petains to the few pounds equied to coss ove into a lowe IWC. A manufactue might be willing to spend $1.511b. to take out 1 pounds, but unwilling to spend $1.511b. to take out 15 pounds. Discussion Panelists estimate that fo the cuent passenge ca CAFE (27.5 mpg) and light tuck CAFE (2.7 npg), manufactues value a pound of weight saved at $.75 and $1. espectively. Fo 22, given cuent CAFE standads, the panel foecasts the manufactues to value a pound of weight saved at $1. fo both passenge cas and light tucks. Fo 27, given CAFE scenaios of 3 and 35 mpg, the panel foecasts a pound saved to be valued at $1-59 and $3. espectively. Fo a 27 light tuck CAFE of 24 mpg, the panel expects a pound of weight saved to be valued at $1.75. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. 7 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

83 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in this fomat in the 1996 Delphi VIII. Fo passenge cas, the Delphi IX panelists foecast lowe values fo a pound saved fo the 3 mpg scenaio ($.75 less) and the 35 mpg scenaio ($1. less). The Delphi IX panel estimated the value of a pound saved cuently as $.25 less than did the 1996 panel. Stategic consideations The value of a pound saved is dependent on many vaiables and is extemlely difficult to estimate. Seveal of the panelists' comments suggest that due to cuent govenment egulations, the value of a pound saved vaies geatly depending on a vehicle's position elative to its inetial weight class. Vehicles that exceed thei inetial weight class of CAFE goals slightly ae likely to place a high value on weight savings. Convesely, those pogams that ae within thei weight class goals place little value on weight savings. Although this may be possible fo some components such as hoods and othe "hang on" pats, we suspect that the mateial selection decisions fo many components ae completed well befoe the final vehicle weight is known. Finally, a luxuy ca pogam, due to its highe magins may place a highe value on a pound saved than a compact ca pogam. The panel's foecast indicates that inceased CAFE equiements will geatly incease the value of a pound of weight saved. Howeve, unless the method to calculate CAFE is chan!ged, it is likely that the actual value of a pound saved will continue to be highly dependent om the specific equiements of each pogam. Potential inceases in light tuck CAFE may ceate many changes in the coming decade. The Califonia Ai Resouce Boad is consideing a poposal to incease light tuck CAFE to 27.5 mpg in the coming decade. A change of that significance would have fa eaching effects on the selection of mateials fo light tucks and concomitantly impact the value that manufactues plaice on a pound of weight saved. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 7 1

84 MAT-19 How much additional cost pe vehicle in cuent dollas would a manufactue be willing to add to a typical mid-size passenge ca to impove fuel economy by one (I) mile pe gallon? This cost may be added fo a new device, altenate mateial, evised mateial, impoved technology, etc. Assume CAFE equiements at 27.5 npg in 22 and 3 and 35 npg in 27., CAFE= 27.5 npg Median Response / Vehicle CAFE= CAFE= CAFE= 27.5 mpg 3 mpg 35 mpg lntequatile Range I Cuent Value CAFE= 27.5 npg $ CAFE= i CAFE= mpg ; npg 27 CAFE = 35 mpg Selected edited comments $, unless that's the only way to meet CAFE A 1 npg incease equies a 5% weight saving that is 15 Ib.-manufactues ae paying 5 centsllb. now. About one half of fuel cost saved will be added to the cost of vehicles. This is not technology elated but puely elated to the ca picing stategy. About one half the cost equied to save the weight fo meeting those fuel economy tagets will be added to the vehicle pice. Again, what is the pojected penalty? Answes fo CAFE of 27.5 eflects the fact that this is cuently being achieved. Answes fo the highe CAFE levels ae based on needing to pay to achieve the CAFE-not to exceed it-and that no cost-neutal way to get to these CAFE levels without downsizing ae yet available. Cas ae becoming too costly. The consume needs to be able to affod it. Consumes don't cae about mileage; it all depends on the egulatoy zeal of the govenment. Expectations ae that supplies will fund though ideas submission. If they can achieve cuent CAFE equiements they would spend nothing to impove. They will spend only what the law demands, e.g., if they must pay a penalty fo failue to achieve, they would spend up to that amount to net out no dolla loss. It depends on whee fleet aveage is elative to CAFE. Ongoing impovements in vehicle mass and fuel efficiency should enable manufactues to meet the 35 npg by 27 without inceasing costs. The key wod is willing. Howeve, they may be foced to add cost. The pope use of diect injection o diesel may answe the cost question vey clealy. Thee ae still oppotunities to keep total vehicle cost in line by good mateiallmanufactuingldesign. At 35 npg cost will be added to each the fuel economy taget. 72 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

85 This is vey complicated because of fleet aveages, pat commonality, etc. This question can not be accuately answeed without undestanding the pessue on the copoate fleet. Ultimately, the question is not how much would a manufactue be willing to pay, lsut how much the ca buye might be willing to pay. Cuent expeience suggests that consumes ae not willing to pay anything to impove fuel economy. The way the question has been woded only pepetuates the fiction that, somehow, automakes will pay fo impoved fuel economy. With gasoline selling at about $1.2/gal and CAFE=27.5 mpg, it cost about $4,346 to go 1, miles, o appoximately $.44/mile. If CAFE=28.5, 1, miles would cost $4,21. So $4,364 - $4,21 = $ fo 1 mpg. Discussion The panel estimates that cuently manufactues would be willing to pay an exta $3. to impove fuel economy by 1 mpg. Given a CAFE of 35 npg fo 27, the panel foecast that the manufactues would be willing to pay an additional $62.5 fo an additional '1 mpg. The intequatile anges fo this question ae exceptionally wide, indicating geat uncetainty egading this question. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Compaison of foecast: TECH4 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in esponses between technology and mateials panelists. Mean esponses fo the two panels ae summaized in the following table. 1 Mean Value of One Mile Pe Gallon - $ 1 1 CAFE = 27.5 mpg I CAFE = 3 mpg I CAFE 35 mpg 1 TECH $47 MAT $1 7 pp Technology panelists foecast a much highe value placed on saving one mile pe gallon than mateials panelists fo all scenaios. It should be noted, howeve, that the intequatile ange is high fo all pats of this question fo the technology panel, indicating uncetainty o diffeences of opinion. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the 1996 Delphi VIII. The wide,intequatile anges fo both the Delphi Vlll and Delphi IX esponses make compaison difficult. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 73

86 Stategic consideations The wide intequatile anges in MAT-19 and MAT-2 suggest that these questions ae exceptionally difficult to answe. Thee is most cetainly no consensus among panelists egading the value of a pound of weight saved, o how much additional cost pe vehicle a manufactue is willing to accept to incease gas mileage by 1 mpg. The comments fo both questions ae woth eading caefully and suggest that thee ae many factos that detemine the value of weight savings and fuel economy gains. It may be a valuable execise fo manufactues to develop bette methods to analyze the costs and benefits associated with weight saving tade-offs. 74 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

87 MAT-2 Consideing the following vehicle systems, please indicate any mateial cost saving ideas that meit consideation in the next decade. RESPONSES Body exteio: Adoption of aluminum fo the body stuctue, which will give 565% weight eduction and hence enable vey significant mateials weight and cost eduction in the chassis, engine and powetain systems. Avoid using steel and save the cost of e-coat continuous cast aluminum sheet. Black-unpainted bumpes a Changes to glass-less weight, noise absobing, UV absobing Convet any aluminum panels to steel. Convet plastic panels to steel when volumes exceed 5,. Covet all bumpe systems to steel. Diect casting of stip fo aluminum sheet Highe usage of HSLA steels and aluminum HSS oute panels with thinne gauges I'll go along with PNGV mateials tech team and USAMP. Inceased use of nonpainted plastics Lighte gauge can be expected by the adoption of stetch-daw technology, and esulting cost eduction can also be expected. Low-cost aluminum sheet; lightweight low-cost magnesium extusions fo bumpe suppot Low tempeatue paint pocess would open the doo to huge savings in body panel cost and weights. Lowe coating weights fo coosion-esistant steels May need to evet back to thin steel because of ecyclability, because of image and govenment egulations; educed cost of mateial will esult. Paint off-line and use moe themoplastics Plastic body panels allowing fo ease of exteio styling changes Plastic panels and coss membes Pecoated metal substate to pevent sacifice of zinc pecoats and enhance fomability Pepimed and pepainted metal; pepimed body in white with adhesive bonding o weldable pimes; pepimed closue panels with possible pepainted topcoat to match BIW RRlM eplacing SMC and assembled steel components fo style complex pic=kups1 quate panels; static dissipative plastic substate that educes the cost of painting; enhanced einfocement that allows thinne gauge Stuctual polymeic body panels 1 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 75

88 Systems integation of glazing mateials and exteio tim Themoplastic panels included-in colo Use a holistically-developed model vey ealy in the design pocess, iteating evey pat change back though the model fo mass optimization. Don't aggegate the pat designs into a holistic model at the end of the design pocess. Use of polyolefin-based themoplastic mateials fo bumpe coves, expanded use of themoplastics fo themosets, lase teatment to incease igidity of thinne gauge steel, less enegy-consuming painting opeation, lage panel fabication with help of lase joining technique Use of stainless body panels (allows thinne gages and impoved coosion potection) Body inteio Aluminum and magnesium seat stuctues; educe foam content in seats (thinne pads) Body component eductions though pats consolidation-steel and aluminum Commonization of 1 o 2 platfoms fo inteio will decease mateial costs. Consolidation of pat systems, e.g., oof heade that would educe the total numbe of pats in the system; hydofomed steel tubing in some pats Continued complexity eduction though educing the numbe of components and inceasing size of peassemblies; inceased use of inexpensive natual-occuing mateials Embodying einfoced optional stuctues by "holistic design" and cost eduction and weight eduction by tailoed blanks Incease use of plastics and lightweight sound-deadening pads lnceased modulaization lnceased use of magnesium diven by plastics ecycling issues lnceased use of polypopylene plastic lntegated design and fabication of instument panels, in-mold pinting technique fo mete cluste, wide application of flexible pinted cicuit boad fo signal and powe tansmission, appopiately edesigned aibag system lntegated die cast magnesium instument panels and new low-cost wold magnesium supply to poduce seats, suppots, and doo innes 6 lntegated self suppoting modules e.g., the integated stuctual instument panel Less leathe, moe cloth Magnesium coss beams, magnesium and aluminum seat stuctue Make all seat fames fom steel. Molded-in colo plastic pats fom ABS to high cystalline polypopylene One-piece magnesium die castings integating (A) IP stuctue, steeing column backet and passenge-side aibag and knee bolste and (B) steeing-wheel onamentation and aibag etaine 76 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan 1998, All ights eseved.

89 Pats consolidation at doo systems Plastic system design that consolidates function and educes mateial and assembly costs, (e.g. the Dakota instument panel stuctue) extending this same design efficiency fc~m instument panels to doos and seats Polypopylene fo ABS in tim; molded-in colo plastic components Polypopylene inteio, magnesium and aluminum Reduce significantly the numbe of types and gades of polyme mateials specified. Replace high hadness heat-teated alloy steel with high-stength low-alloy steel in seat-belt hadwae. Select one type of plastic mateial fo all tim applications. Use a single supply souce fo cockpit modules. Use of olefin-based mateials in lieu of engineeing themoplastics; development of component systems incopoating featues that allow fo pat eduction Chassis: Adoption of semi-solid, nea-net shape casting of components in aluminum; weight and cost would be educed if body exteio and inteio is down-weighted by using aluminu~ thee. All aluminum stuctue to take advantage of the diffeence in density Aluminum suspensionlchassis components-stiffe and lighte to achieve highe pefomance Cast aluminum and magnesium, hybid /extended aluminum, hydofomed alumini~m Conveting aluminum wheels to steel will save $1 pe ca. Cost and weight eduction by use of hydofoming technology Electic moto fo powe steeing system; dive by wie system fo acceleation and baking Eliminate some of the goodies like smat suspension Extensive use of aluminum Foam-filled, enegy absobing ails and coss membes Hydofoming-steel o aluminum plastic Inceased use of cabon fibe composites. Inceased use of engineeed plastics Integation of suspension pats with pemanent die casting and injection moldings Lighte vehicles will allow downsized chassis components Lighte weight and duable bake components that damatically educe -today's +$75lvehicle waanty cost Look fo oppotunities to "clone" chassis components to educe manufactuing cost (see AlSl Light Tuck Study). Optimized designs to use less mateial O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 77

90 Space famemetal and metal plastic hybids Stainless steel fame (less cost than steel and aluminum) Ultathin CADICAE designs in aluminum castings Use cabon composites fo body in white. Use of highe specificlstiffness mateials and moe sophisticated designlfoming (1 997 Covette fo example) Use of stainless in stuctual components Po wetain-engine: Aluminum blocks without cylinde lines Aluminum engine blocks, nylon intake manifolds Convet plastic fuel tanks to coated steel. Citical design of components Elimination of costly plasticlubbe caie-type gaskets with moe cost-effective sealing solutions at the tie 1 component manufactue High-stength ultathin wall, ion castings High tempeatue-esistant composites fo valves; pepainted and metal-to-metal laminates fo oil pans and valve coves; pepainted (adhesives) gasket stock. Hybid (IC-Electic) lnceased use of engineeed plastics lnceased use of magnesium and aluminum fo casting applications lnceased use of polymes fo fuel ails and ai intakes Integation of intake manifold and ai managing system (ai flow mete and suge tank), elimination o eduction of heat spot within cylinde though unifom heat flux to coolant Light weight ion, use of moe plastics Lowe oveall weight esults in educed powetain size and thus lowe weight Moe accuate, lowe cost manufactuing pocesses Moe cast aluminum applications, same cast-aluminum applications, additional application of plastics Moe use of won-out-shape casting pocesses which can integate moe featues; lowe costs though pecise impovements, highe mateial utilization Movement to heat-esistant mateials (i.e., NASA-developed composites) could esult in much lighte pats allowing entie engine edesigns fo weight and size eductions. No cams, all aluminum engines Nodula ion cankshafts in place of steel Optimized designs to use less mateial 78 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

91 Plastic ILO of aluminum intakes; lineless aluminum blocks (coatings)-319 aluminum; ILO stamped steel oil panslockes coves Replacement of magnesium castings with aluminum Unified appoach to valve cove design in magnesium, combining total ecyclability seconday Po wefiain-tansmission: All aluminum housings and diffeential fo light tucks Bette suface teatments may enable the use of less expensive mateials. Convet to vaiable tansmission. Incease use of engineeed plastics. Inceased usage of sintecasts lnceased use of magnesium and aluminum fo casting applications Integation of case and stuctual coves will aise and lowe cost, aise duability in mateials fo Cvs. Lesse engine toque fluctuation esulting in smalle and moe efficient tansmission Lighte vehicles achieve inceased pefomance without tansmission upgades. Magnesium castings, highe stength geainglshafts, magnesiumlplastic convete!^ Magnesium housings Moe accuate lowe cost manufactuing pocesses Optimized designs to use less mateial Pepainted tansmission pans; pepainted (adhesives) gasket stock Replacement of magnesium with aluminum castings and cast ion with alu~minum whee volume-fo-volume eplacement is possible New low-cost supplies of ultathin wall magnesium die castings fo tansmission. Discussion The panelists1 comments suggest that the automotive industy will inceasingly ely on "holistic" design models to moe effectively educe costs. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations - O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 79

92 Mateial selection has histoically focused on individual components. Howeve, ove the past decade, the industy inceasingly has accepted a systems appoach to the mateial selection pocess. Panelists' comments suggest that the coming decade will see a continuation of this tend. The Noth Ameican automotive industy faces the potential of significant change in the coming decade. Inceased fedeal egulation of emissions and CAFE could have fa eaching implications in the selection of mateials. Electic vehicles, hybid vehicles, and fuel cells may pesent viable altenatives to the cuent intenal combustion engine in the coming decade. Potential changes of this magnitude pesent oppotunity fo new mateials that ae both lightweight and cost-effective. The implementation of such mateials fom the ealiest design stages will be citical. Inteestingly, ecent developmental wok in electiclhybid technology indicates that significant weight eduction may not be essential fo inceased fuel economy. Many of the ecently intoduced hybid concept vehicles have elied on taditional mateials to offset the inceased cost of the hybid powetain. Although weight will continue to be an impotant concen, the cost savings offeed by taditional mateials may in fact be an integal pat of futue hybid stategies. Cost eduction will likely emain a citical mateial selection facto fo the coming decade (see MAT-1 1). It is especially impotant to note the wide aay of comments egading cost eduction. Incumbent mateials will likely face inceased competition in the coming decade. Systems integatos will be challenged by mateials paochialism and must wok diligently to select the mateials that best meet the equiements of the system. The wide anges of mateials epesented in the panelists' comments indicate the vaied expectations and pejudices of the mateials panel. This only einfoces the idea that mateials competition will likely continue to incease. 8 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

93 MAT-21. It appeas that weight eduction, govenment egulations and eclyclability ae significant issues confonting the auto industy. Please indicate how these issues can be successfully addessed within the cuent cost eduction envionment. Design Addess weight eduction using appoaches such as holistic designs using steel-ulsab poject. Bette design using computes, finite element analysis, and a bette undestanding of mateials can addess all these and educe cost. By pope design, painting and assembly techniques, and investment in new pocesses Cab-ove design to maintain inteio space while educing oveall stength. Conside edesigns whee cuent mateials ae used to educe weight though highe stength, assuming a design is used which eliminates stiffness. Design by analysis to optimize stuctues at lowest weight. Design fo disassembly Design fo disassembly of pats and modules containing significant plastics. Design fo manufactuing (moe cast aluminumlmagnesium fo example in chassis;) Develop optimized designs using less cuent mateials. Moe sophisticated fame design Stat new vehicle designs with lightweight mateials to achieve the benefits of a significant oveall weight eduction. The integated-stuctual-plastic instument panel is an example that lowes weight, complies with impact equiements, and is highly ecyclable; yet also lowes cost. This is done by optimizing design aound the plastic mateials. ULSAB has poven that mass eduction and cost eduction can be accomplished togethe. Futhe, steel has a poven ecyclability tack ecod, as ecoveing steel scap fom junked autos has been a fo-pofit business eve since the ca was invented. Steel is also unsupassed in enabling automakes to meet safety egulations. Envionmental Allowing incineation (technology exists) as option to ecycling Bette and moe sheddes, pehaps tax-suppoted Consume ecognition of the need fo educing C2 fom vehicles is becoming cleae, and this is focing vehicle manufactues to espond quite faithfully. Develop ecycling technologies fo all new lightweight mateials. Enegy ecovey fom auto plastics waste O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 81

94 Fo ecycling4iscouage difficult to ecycle poducts by imposing a "disposal fee" based on content of those difficult-to-ecycle mateials. Impove ai quality by getting olde cas off-oad with pogams like "Cash fo Clunkes." Make auto companies esponsible fo scap cas, then ely on maket foces. Manufactue majo inteio component systems out of blend-compatible themoplastics fo ease of ecyclability at the end of vehicle life. Raise landfill costs to spu change. Recyclability-educe the numbe of diffeent kinds of plastics used; commonize whee possible to facilitate tea down sepaation fo ecycling weight eduction. Utilize low specific gavity plastics (i.e., PP & PE) to displace heavie plastics (i.e., PC and ABS) in instument panel, exteio and inteio tim. Recycling can actually educe costs of noncitical pats (wheel lines, eflective lenses) though eplacement of vigin plastic with egind. Reduce the mix of mateials to ease end-of-life sepaation. Howeve, as fo all metal stuctues, sepaation of feous alloys fom nonfeous lightweight metals is eadily achieved. Weight eduction at minimal cost penalty will be achieved by a balanced use of high-stength steel, tailoed blanks aluminum, plastics, and composites. Recycling is not the issue that it is thought to be by automotive media and automotive-envionmental people because the impact of ecycling impovements, even if damatic is, in eality, almost too small to measue. In time, people will come to ealize that lage effots that do not help o impove the situation ae not poductive. Govenmental Issues e Elect moe sensible govenment officials. Fuel economy (weight eduction) and safety egulations tend to be in conflict and need to be econciled. Govenment egulations (2) Govenment egulations need to be hamonized globally. Incease influence in govenment affais-up-font esponsiveness to public needs. Only govenment egulations o "gas-guzzle" taxes will foce inceases in costs of vehicles. Othewise, weight eduction and ecyclability must be economical. Tax gasoline. Mateial Issues Aluminum molding and welding leading to low-cost components and assemblies Develop technologies such as feedstock and manufactuing, to educe the cost of lightweight mateials. Elimination of significant plastics content in favo of metals in vehicle inteios 82 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

95 Incease use of magnesium and aluminum in lieu of steel fo castings, chas!sis, and body panels. Inceased use of magnesium and aluminum inteio stuctual pats New polyme families R&D needs to go beyond each mateial poduce looking fo new ways to use its poduct. The industy needs eal mateials beakthoughs that I suspect ae thee if sufficient effot is expended to find them. PNGV should be the catalyst. Replace mild steel with thinne, high-stengthllow-alloy steel fo weight ~~avings, while maintaining ecyclability. Select fom cost effective mateials (HSLA steels, aluminum, and some magnesium) and use designs suited to thei espective manufactuing pocesses. Use lighte mateials whee steel has taditionally been used. Use moe poly (plastic) poduct when weight savings can esult. Disposal, howeve, can be an issue. Use natually occuing and egeneable aw mateials to avoid investment in synthesis equipment. Use of moe aluminum-weight eduction and ecyclability Use of moe flexible mateials such as high-stength plastics Use plasticslcomposites. Weight eduction can be helped by the use of stonge mateials, which would allow them to be used in lighte gages, theeby educing the oveall weight. Weight eduction, though component consolidation into lage castings Othe Issues Ealy intoduction of even a small numbe of advanced technology vehicles justifies the highe cost and eans the espect due a pionee. Education of OEM design enginees in the use of new mateials and manufactuing methods Engineesidesignes must undestand the business coelissues suppot to ensue cost eduction, which will equie futhe development pojections and tansfe of new technologies. It will become inceasingly difficult, as the low-hanging fuit is gone. Automakes will continue to pess supplies and begin to wok up the couage to confont the UAW. Beyond ithe issues you cite above-competition fom tansplants will incease significantly. Need elief in all aeas! Optimization of full systems Oveall vehicle size eduction is the only way to addess all of the above-mentioned issues. Pefomance of CAE designs and CAE models of lightweight castings pefo~mance vs. invehicle pefomance and 1-yea duability; to educe mass, educe costs using aluminum and magnesium O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 83

96 Pepimed and pepainted poducts eliminate VOCs fom the assembly plants and concentate the issue in the coil coate's opeation. The coil coate can effectively deal with the emissions and, in fact, is favoed by govenment egulatoy agencies fo that eason. Realistically, customes know costs. Reduce vehicle size. Smalle cas with smalle engines System appoaches may be the answe fo ease of assembly. This will be diven by new competitos. Use smalle displacement engines. Vehicle downsizing addesses all thee (weight eduction, govenment egulations, and ecyclability) simultaneously. Vey difficult since, taditionally, adding cost is equied to addess these issues. Weight eduction Weight eduction though component consolidation into lage castings Weight eduction can be achieved togethe with cost eduction by stuctual optimization, optimal mateial selection with the intoduction of tailoed blanks, and innovation of poduction technology such as hydofoming. Weight eduction, ecyclability, and all the equied govenment egulations can be met with aluminum, povided a cost-efficient system is adopted fo its use. The weight of the aluminum used must be minimized and full advantage taken of the seconday weight and cost savings that can esult fom a lage pimay weight savings in the body stuctue. Howeve, this oveall weight and cost saving can only be achieved with a total system appoach; it can't be done piecemeal. With the fiece competition in vey specialized maket segments, manufactues who can claim any advantages ove othes in these aeas ae getting moe and moe ecognition. System Management o All of these issues can and will be addessed due to the "cost eduction envionment" and in some cases lack of tust/commitment fom OEM to supplies-pogess will be a small faction of what would be possible (1-2 pecent). An ageement among the OEMs to educe weight and ecycle would help. This is difficult to do because of the cost-competitiveness among the OEMs. Competent, open thinking about the function of each aea of the vehicle without cutailment due to mateial bias, existing manufactuing investment, etc. Full use of all supplies Inceased supplie involvement in developing new system solutions OEMs must do a bette job of infoming legislatos of the pacticable ealities of science vs. politics. Offset allowances fo "blue sky" R & D investment by componentlmateial supplies 84 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

97 Outsoucing of majo subsystem components Patneships with bulk mateial supplies to ensue thei involvement in the eally development and design Supply chain management to include postconsume-use points Thee is a need to focus not so much on lowe cost mateials but on total system costs-we have many oppotunities fo cost eduction. Discussion The ange of esponses is indicative of the seveity of the challenge epesented by weight eduction, govenment egulation, and ecyclability within the cuent cost eductioin envionment. Panelists' comments focused on design stategies, systems management, envionmental challenges, and mateial stategies. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations The panelists indicate that Noth Ameican automotive industy paticipants ae inceasingly viewing the automobile as a complete system and not meely a compilation of individual pats. Panelists comments also indicate that mateial selection and the competition between mateials is moe intense than eve and is likely to get even moe intense in the coming decade. A continued emphasis on system design optimization will be an impotant eleme~nt in addessing weight eduction, govenment egulation and ecyclability. As fist tie supplies ae inceasingly elied upon fo system integation, the coodination of systems may become even moe citical. Companies that ae able to manage the communication between system integatos may have a stategic advantage. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 85

98 MAT-22. Please foecast the mateial content change in pecentage fo the typical Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca and light tuck fo 22 and 27, given the indicated CAFE scenaios. It is not necessay to ente a esponse fo evey mateial-just those with which you ae familia. Please indicate plus o minus and efeence all pecent changes to base yea, whee data has been povided (e.g., +5%, -3%). Passenge Cas MATERIALS STEEL Low-cabon steel HSS steel Stainless steel Othe steels TOTAL STEEL CAST IRON PLASTICS Themosets Themoplastics TOTAL PLASTICS ALUMINUM Castings Fogings Sheets TOTAL ALUMINUM RUBBER Ties (include spae) All othe ubbe TOTAL RUBBER GLASS COPPER (including electical) ZlNC Zinc coatings Zinc pats TOTAL ZINC POWDERED METALS MAGNESIUM CERAMICS Est. Cuent Weight* (27.5 mpg) 149 Ibs nla - nla 245 nla nla - nla 195 nla - nla ** nla Median Response mpg -5% mpg -1% mpg -15% lntequatile Range mpg 27 3 mpg mpg -51-4% /7 25/ % / % / O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

99 Light Tucks Median Response Est / Cu!ent I 2.7 mpg I 24npg MATERIALS We~ght* (2.7 mpg) STEEL 1 Low-cabon steel nla -4% HSS steel n/a 5 Stainless steel nla Othe steels nla TOTAL STEEL -2 CAST IRON nla -8 PLASTICS Themosets 4 Themoplastics 5 TOTAL PLASTICS 5 ALUMINUM Castings nla 8 Fogings nla 5 Sheets nla 4 TOTAL ALUMINUM nla 1 RUBBER Ties (include spae) nla All othe ubbe TOTAL RUBBER GLASS COPPER (including electical) nla -2 ZlNC Zinc coatings nla Zinc pats nla -5 TOTAL ZlNC -5 POWDERED METALS 5 9 MAGNESIUM 3 8 CERAMICS *Souce: Wad's Automotive Yeabook 1996 and OSAT estimates, except ** Wa 1 ;; lntequatile Range ds Automotive Yeabook., 1993 nla-not available - Selected edited comments Aluminum and magnesium casting applications will include cast ion and steel. Plastic will be included but thee will be a change in the mix of plastics. Among steel, HSS and stainless steel will see inceased usage because of stiffe HSS and the fact that stainless manifolds ae a good way to save weight. Themoplastics will somewhat eplace themosets and aluminum if high fuel economy impovement is mandated. Q Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 87

100 Biggest and easiest change would be switching fom cast ion to cast aluminum engines. Cabon steel loses out to thinne HSS fo skin panels and to aluminum and composites AIC weight. Cost of altenative poducts to steel will keep its loss fom disastous levels (fo steel supplies). Aluminum still must ovecome foming and joining issues in addition to cost. Ceamics will be used as einfocement in eithe MMC o PMC. I believe magnesium will gow apidly as the supply continues to develop and costs ae contolled by long-tem contacts. Most engines will have aluminum heads and blocks by 27. I see an oveall decease in vehicle weight based on damatically impoved design (design optimization). A slight gowth in steel pecentage is possible. Inceases in CAFE will lead to a substantial numbe of cas with all aluminum bodies and the use of lightweight mateials (magnesium and plastics o composites) wheeve feasible. Multiplex and fibe optics will educe the use of coppe. The use of moe sheet aluminum will educe the zinc needed fo coatings and magnesium and plastics will eplace many component applications of zinc. Stainless steels will be looked at fo "nontaditional" stuctual applications whee thei highe stength will help educe mass via a eduction in mateial thickness. Taillight assemblies will likely be eplaced with low-weight altenative lighting systems. The Ducke study (funded by the Aluminum Association), published in 1996, gave the aluminum content fo Noth Ameican-poduced vehicles in 1996 as: Extusions; 25 Ibs., Castings; 19 Ibs., Fogings; 2 Ibs., Sheet; 3 Ibs., Total; 247 Ibs. The annual incease ove the last 5 yeas has been 6%. The wok of the ULSAB consotium essentially means a significant eduction in the amount of steel equied to satisfy all of the automotive equiements. It was undestood at the beginning of the poject that the eduction would occu. Because of the associated cost eductions, it is assumed that even unde a no-change CAFE scenaio, these changes would be adopted elatively quickly. It should be noted that, at.5 mpg pe inetia weight class, the change fom 3 to 35 would equie a shift of 1 inetial weight classes-a vey expensive and unlikely scenaio. Othe technologies will have to come into play to achieve this quantum impovement. The use of zinc coatings will go down as aluminum sheet goes up. Discussion The panel was asked to foecast passenge ca and light tuck mateial changes in the coming decade. The elative diection of mateials was simila fo both segments. Fo passenge cas, the panel was give one CAFE scenaio fo 22 and two fo 27. The shot-tem foecast with a given CAFE of 27.5 mpg shows steady movement towad lightweight mateials. The panel foecasts steel and cast ion to decease by 3 pecent and 1 pecent espectively, by 22. Aluminum and plastic ae expected to incease by 1 pecent and 5 pecent espectively. The two CAFE scenaios fo 27 pesent futhe evidence of mass eduction though mateial substitution. Fo the 3 mpg scenaio, the panel foecasts steel and cast ion to decease by 7 pecent and 1 pecent espectively. Aluminum and plastics ae foecast to incease by 19 pecent and 1 pecent espectively. Fo a 35 mpg CAFE in 27, steel and cast ion ae foecast to 88 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

101 decease by 1 pecent and 3 pecent espectively, while aluminum and plastic ae foecast to incease by 28 pecent and 19 pecent espectively. Fo light tucks, the panel was given a CAFE of 2.7 mpg fo 22 and 24 mpg fo 27. Fo 22, the panel foecast a weight eduction of 2 pecent and 8 pecent fo steel and cast ion espectively, while aluminum and plastic ae foecast to incease by 1 pecent and 5 pecent espectively. Fo 27, the panel foecasts a eduction of 5 pecent and 15 pecent fo steel and cast ion and an incease of 18 pecent fo aluminum and 1 pecent fo plastic. Magnesium is foecast to see significant gowth in both passenge cas and light tucks in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, they (diffe on thei passenge ca foecasts fo magnesium fo the yea 27 (35 mpg CAF~. The manufactues foecast a much highe gowth ate (283 pecent) than do the supplies (87 pecent). Compaison of foecast: TECH-37 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between technology and mateials panelists fo the mateials and yeas shown in the following table. 1 Mateial Content Change - Pecent I I CAFE mpg I CAFE-3Ompg / CAFE-35 mpg I Mateials I TECH I MAT I TECH I MAT I TECH I MAT I I steel ? Rubbe Zinc Magnesium In all cases the mateials panel foecasts a geate change, whethe the change is positive o negative. Fo zinc and magnesium the total quantity of mateial cuently used in a vehicle is elatively small. If a change is thought of in tems of absolute weight, a small change in weight can cause a lage pecent change. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was changed in the 1996 Delphi Vlll to ask fo pecentages instead of actual pounds. Theefoe, compaison to Delphi foecasts pio to Delphi Vlll ae not possibl~e. The Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with the Delphi Vlll panel. Howeve, the Delphi IX (2 pecent gowth fo long-tem 35 mpg scenaio) panel foecasts much smalle gowth fo ceamics than did the pevious panel (1 pecent gowth fo the long-tem 35 mpg scenaio) O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 89

102 Stategic consideations The automotive industy is expected to continue the tend to lightweight mateials in the coming decade. Inceased penetation of lightweight mateials will come at the expense of taditional mateials such as low-cabon steel, cast ion, coope and zinc. To achieve a passenge ca CAFE of 35 mpg, by 27 the panel foecasts a vehicle weight of 283- eduction of appoximately 155 pounds. Whethe o not that is enough mass eduction to each a 35 mpg is questionable. Fo the past two decades, it has been commonly ageed upon that the automotive industy would inceasingly ely on lightweight mateials to meet inceased CAFE equiements. Recent powetain advances have made the inceased use of lightweight mateials less cetain. Gasoline/electic hybid vehicles ae becoming inceasingly technologically feasible. Although the use of lightweight mateials will be an integal pat of any hybid vehicle, it is possible that in an effot to maintain affodability, manufactues may choose to foego the highe cost of some lightweight mateials. At least initially, it is likely that to meet cost constaint, the initial hybid vehicles will be compised of a high-technology powetain mated to a vehicle with athe taditional mateials. Usage of steel is expected to decease by 1-2 pecent pe yea in the coming decade. Thee ae at least two dives of this eduction: the diect substitution of lightweight mateials fo steel and a vey poactive steel industy. U.S. AutolSteel Patneship continues to be an example of poactive supplies woking with thei customes to develop cost-effective, innovative designs. Cast ion will likely continue to see substantial eductions in automotive applications in the coming decade. The panelists foecast continued substitution of altenative mateials fo cast ion in cylinde heads and blocks (MAT-27), camshafts, cankshafts, and connecting ods (MAT-3). Aluminum will likely see continued gowth in seveal automotive applications in the coming decade. Delphi IX panelists foecast stong gowth in aluminum castings, fogings and sheet applications. Those applications expected to see inceased aluminum usage include adiato and heate coes (MAT-35), cylinde head and blocks (MAT-27), unibody stuctues (MAT-36), body panels (MAT-38), and seveal chassis and bake applications (MAT-42, MAT-43). The panelists believe that, in ode to meet inceasing CAFE standads, a slow movement towad lightweight mateials is necessay. Howeve, in ode to meet substantially highe CAFE equiements, downsizing of vehicles will also be a needed element. The usage of lightweight mateials pesents an oppotunity to educe the oveall mass of the vehicle, yet concens fo affodability ae likely to slow such a movement O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

103 MAT-23. Assuming the same maket size (13,293, passenge cas and light tucks) as in the base yea 1995, please conside the following list of plastic mateials and foecast change in plastic usage fo 22 and 27. Please indlicate plus o minus. Mateial - Median Response lntequatile Range! ABS Acetal Acylic ABSIPC(pulse) PCIPBT (Xenoy) PPOlnylon PPOlstyene EPOXY lonome Nylon Phenolic Polycabonate Polyeste elastome Polyeste themoplastic Polyeste themoset Vinyl este - TS Polyethylene Polypopylene TPO Polyuea PVC SMA Uethane Total Selected edited comments As designes ealize the value of high stiffness themoplastics, such as SMA, in stuctual applications that can incopoate a geat deal of pats consolidation, the usage of these types of mateials will gow significantly. Fom the standpoint of concens egading toxics and ecyclability, some themosets and chloine containing polymes will be eplaced with polypopylene-based TPOs. I expect some side glasses of so called eceational vehicles to be eplaced with plastics. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 91

104 I believe that as designes become moe familia and expet in designing integated stuctues utilizing themoplastics, the need fo themosets will decline since themoplastics offe geate design functionality and feedom and do not have the post use-waste poblems associated with themosets. 1 also believe low-elongation mateials like SMA will decline to essentially zeo as designes ealize they can achieve cost savings by using stonge, ductile, multiple functionality, highe cost mateials than they can with cheape "single functionality" mateials. Cost pe pound doesn't matte. Cost pe functional value does, and how the available functionality is applied to ceating a solution is the key. I expect nylon gowth in intake manifolds, ABS to be eplaced by PP and TPO to be mateial of choice fo fascias and moldings. Thee may be polycabonate glazing by 27 Themosets ae booming cuently, but unless incineation becomes politically viable (it is technically feasible), themosets must lose gound to themoplastics. This answe depends of the futue cost of fuel economy, fom CAFE andlo taxes at the pump. A significant jump in this cost is assumed fo 27, justifying wide use of heat stable plastics fo body panels. The significant jump in polyethylene eflects a wholesale convesion fom steel to blow-molded gas tanks. Fo TPO, significant momentum to eplace RIM fascia was only in midstide in 1995 and use of TPO on the inteios (eplacing ETPs) was just beginning. With wide and new applications of polyme-alloy technologies, PP-based themoplastics and TPOs ae finding moe applications. Intake-manifold, fuel tanks ae becoming standad use. Ease fo ecycling is moe and moe impotant. Discussion Panelists foecast substantial gowth fo polypopylene (2 pecent), TPO (18 pecent), nylon (1 pecent), polyeste themoplastic (1 pecent), and polyethylene (1 pecent). The panel also foecasts a significant decease in usage fo ABS (1 pecent), PVC (-1 pecent), and uethane (- 1 pecent). Manufactuelsu pplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. 92 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

105 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The table shows those mateials whee thee is a diffeence between the 1994 Delphi VII, the 1996 Delphi Vlll and the 1998 Delphi IX. Stategic consideations Plastics offe the mateials enginee the oppotunity to chemically design a mateial with specific and unique chaacteistics. This vesatility has lead to a wide vaiety of vey effective esin compounds fo a wide aay of applications. Howeve, the ability to design a esin fo a specific application-possibly plastic's most valuable aspect-can pesent an envionmental challenge with egad to the final disposition of vehicles. In an effot to decease baies to ecycling, many manufactues ae developing stategies that makedly limit the numbe of diffeent types of plastics in a vehicle. The ability to develop entie component systems using one family of plastics may epesent the most envionmentally acceptable applications fo plastics in the futue. Howeve, it may also limit the vesatility of mateials enginees to design application-specific mateials. Polypopylene and TPO ae foecast to see the lagest pecentage gains in the coming decade. Polypopylene-a likely candidate fo widespead inteio component mateial consolidation-will likely see inceased usage fo inteios and bumpes. Given the continued activity in the development of plastics fo new applications, it is appaent that the industy is committed to a long-tem stategy that includes plastics. Howeve, the ecyclability of plastics will continue to pesent a challenge to the auto industy in the coming decade. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 93

106 MAT-24. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca and light tuck components will utilize magnesium alloys in the next decade? Components Steeing wheel Steeing wheel components IP components Aibag caniste Electic ca tansaxle Seat fames Backets Bake pedal Engine coves Housing Suppot baceslbeams Tansmission cove Median Response 5% lntequatile Response 517% 25/5 21/ Tansmission cases Othe components: Tansfe cases: 5% Selected edited comments Cost consideations will dive the maket. Highe stiffness than that of aluminum and its soundlvibation-deafening chaacteistic ae the easons fo it to be employed fo the above pats. Magnesium will appea on all of the listed components to some extent. The answes eflect the pecentages that will have been in poduction sometime duing the decade, not necessaily the total faction of such pats that will be poduced duing the decade. Magnesium will have a significant usage gowth. I also assume that magnesium pice will stabilize, and be moe competitive with aluminum. Pats and design consolidation tend will wok both ways. A lage incease of usage because of lage pats o vey limited usage because of limited magnesium pats poduces. 94 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

107 The assumption is that added magnesium will be on-steam in addition to the Dead Sea wok and Queensland ange. Thee ae cetain poblems with magnesium that must be esolved befoe we see iany significant inceases in its use: coosion, high temp stength, cost compaed to aluminum, ceep, compatibility with othe mateials, coolant fuel, oils, etc. Thee is a need fo bette low-cost coosion coatings fo wheels. Maket shae depends on the ability of aw mateials supply to incease in volume and decease in cost as expected to - $1,25/lb. Thee is also a need fo a much lage engineeing die casting supply base integated into fist tie supplies (who now ae moe polyme-based). The industy needs moe data on component design fo thin wall advantage and ules fo diecasting. We also need bette lowcost pototyping. Shotened length of new poduct development is an issue, as well. Discussion Panelists expect magnesium usage to incease significantly in inteio compolents such as instument suppot beams, steeing-wheel components, seat fames, and aibag canistes. They also expect to see inceased application of magnesium fo noncitical stuctual components like backets, coves, cases and housings. The wide intequatile anges suggest significant uncetainty o diffeing stategies between manufactues. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was changed fo the 1996 Delphi VIII, so compaison with suveys pio to Delphi Vlll is not possible. The 1998 Delphi IX panel is somewhat less optimistic vvith egad to magnesium than was the Delphi Vlll panel. Of the 2 components listed, the Delphi IX panel foecast highe magnesium ates fo 3 components than the pevious panel. It is impotant to note that, with few exceptions, the cuent Delphi foecast is lowe than that of Delphi Vlll, but is within the simila ange. Stategic consideations The panel's foecast suggests that magnesium will continue to be viewed as a viable altenative fo aluminum, plastic and steel. Magnesium delives good stength to weight pefomance and excellent dampening chaacteistics, yet thee ae concens egading its use. Unstable pices, limited industy expeience, and an uncetain supply make a wide scale commitment to magnesium unlikely. Magnesium also pesents galvanic coosion issues that must be consideed. Any significant incease in fuel-economy standads will likely lead to a apiid incease in magnesium usage. Howeve, cost, supply, manufactuing consideations, and othe baies may impede mateial substitution. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 95

108 MAT-25. Please indicate significant new mateial applications/technologies that ae likely to emege within the next decade fo each of the following vehicle systems. RESPONSES Body Exteio: 1 pecent galvanized (any OEM not using coated steel should be chastised). Aluminum (wought) joining technology Aluminum and stainless body panels Aluminum panels Bake-hadenable o equivalent close panel; inceasing use of aluminum hoodsldecks Bake-hadened steel sheet, tailoed blank Continued gowth of bake-hadenable steels and othe postfabication technologies Duable polypopylenes and TPOs, bake-oven, stable-plastic body panels, static dissipative plastics fo enhanced electostatic painting Geate use of aluminum, themoplastics Gowth of nonpainted plastics Highe stength aluminum panels Hydophobic glass coatings, theft-deteent glazing systems Inceased themoplastic and themoset body panels Low-cost, lightweight bumpe suppots in magnesium and aluminum Magnesium body panels Moe aluminum panels, some incease in plastic andlo composite exteio panels New lighting systems-neon, LED New TPO developments that will allow the mateial to be used in vetical body panels ae needed. This will open new design oppotunities. Plastic additives to damatically impove adhesion to low suface-enegy plastics Powde coatings, two-coat peal paints Pepimed steel and aluminum; dy-film-lube-coated sheet, pepainted o laminated aluminum tim Revet back to new highe stength steel which will be thinne, thus educing weight Revisit the use of themoplastic panels, especially on small cas. Use aluminum body panels on highe piced vehicles. Unpainted plastic body panels 96 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

109 Inteio: All aluminum weld-bonded sheet body stuctues Duable polypopylenes and TPOs Fibe optics Geate use of aluminum and magnesium; intoduction of polyme-matix composilte mateials. High-volume stamped aluminum body stuctues, additional space fame o multipoduct aluminum body stuctues fo lowe volumes Integated-magnesium instument panels with electical tansmission Less leathe, moe cloth, but bette cloth in tems of cleaning Longe, moe modula plastic moldings Magnesium backets, stuctues, steeing wheels Magnesium coss-ca beams and seat fames Not much change; except fo an incease in the use of magnesium Occupant-fiendly inteio mateials Plastic additives to damatically impove adhesion to low suface-enegy plastics Polypopylene will eplace ABS and PCIABS as the pimay mateial fo all inteio applications based on pefomance and cost. Pepimed and pepainted steel and aluminum; dy film-lube-coated sheet; hydofomed tube fo vaious components such as heade ails and doo intusion seams; sou~nd deadening (laminate) fo wheel house, dash panel, etc. Sound deadening fo quiete inteio will be an issue that can be solved by metal-to-metal laminates on panels that sepaate the inteio fom the engine compatment, dive tain, etc. Tailo welded blanks, spayable insulatosldeadenes Ultahigh-stength steel sheet, tailoed blank Use of magnesium displacing igid plastics Chassis Bakes: 1, mile systems, electonically activated, eliminating the hydaulic system aid its weight Additional consumes fo ABS Aluminum calipes, possibly aluminum MMC calipe otos Aluminum matix composite disks Aluminum metal matix bake otos and dums Cast aluminum O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 97

110 Lighte mateials fo bake otos and calipes; aluminum, aluminum-metal matix composites, titanium; ceamic coosion potective coatings on cast ion bake otos Low-cost aluminum MMC Metal-matix composite discs and calipes on high-volume poduction cas Metal-to-metal laminated bake shoe assembly. MMC otos Powe-assisting system fo emegency baking (especially fo women and eldes) Something bette fo fiction mateial is likely. Exhaust: All stainless steel constuction fo 15, miles De-NOx catalyst fo both gasoline and diesel engines Low chomium stainless steel will emain the mateial of choice. Moe coosion-esistant metals; life-of-ca exhaust system is technically feasible New catalytic convete mateialslpocesses Sensing fo HC NOx 2, highe tempeatue catalytic convetes, highe cell density, moe suface aea, themally managed systems Stainless exhaust will become standad equipment because of its coosion esistance. Stainless-steel exhaust systems Thin-wall cast pats (stainless), hydofoming This last bastion of class a-b coosion should change to bette-coated steels and stainless steels. Titanium exhaust in limited application Suspension: Aluminum backets, ai suspensions with load leveling e Aluminum fames Cast aluminum Continuation and efinement of aleady existing technologies Fewe vehicles with automatic suspension contol, because it's too expensive Fomable tube, hydofoming (tube) High-stength thin-wall die casting Highe stength alloys; pehaps some composite suspension components etc. Hydofomed tubula components Integated metalliclpolymes components 98 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

111 Lightweight-metal (aluminum) suspension components Lightweight steel designs will begin to emege to compete with cast and foged aluminum poviding pefomance impovement with little o no cost penalty. Moe aluminum Moe aluminum-intensive, but also magnesium and polyme composites on some limited applications-we also may see titanium spings on vey limited basis Thin-wall cast pats (stainless) Titanium coil spings Use of semisolid foge aluminum components Wheels Ai pessue monitoing and self-adjusting wheel, ties, o systems to keep pope fiction coefficient on the icy suface Composite wheels to have advantages of aluminum (weight, styling, and appeaance), without the disadvantage of filifom coosion. Cost and epai consideations will povide impetus to etun to steel wheels. Fabicated and nea net-shape cast aluminum wheels Foged vs. cast Highe aluminum alloys will begin to dominate the maket. HSLA steel; aluminum will level off Lighte mateials Lightweight steel wheels with stylish appeaance Low-cost coloed coated magnesium Magnesium Magnesium and composites emege Magnesium wheels eplace steel and aluminum Moe aluminum usage Moe aluminum wheels Polyme matix composites possible-used Powetain on bicycles and exotic cas aleady Engine 1 pecent aluminum head and blocks, 1 pecent intake manifolds - nylon All-aluminum engine block, ceamic metal pads, lightweight engine valves O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 99

112 Aluminum blocks with integal aluminum composite lines instead of cast ion lines o aluminum 39 alloy Aluminum cylinde blocks and heads Aluminum engine housing Compact gaphite block and heads-cylinde boe coatings; plastic oil pans-cast steel exhaust manifolds Complex-multipiece-plastic intake manifolds Continued gowth of i.e. cast aluminum Electomagnetic-contolled thottling and high flexible valve timing and lift contol will equie lightweight but highly duable mateials and systems. Engine: aluminum block, plastic components; tansmissionlfinal dive: aluminum and magnesium castings Geate use of aluminum High pefomance in automobile fluids sealing mateials with 2M-25M life of seal pefomance Highe hosepowe (pefomance) at same fuel economy Hydofom fameslaluminum blocks Inceased plastic fuel ails and ai intakes Magnesium block, metal matix composite and titanium moving pats Magnesium cove and blocks, altenative powe systems will dive new mateials oppotunities Magnesium coves Magnesium, polymes Moe aluminum blocks, heads; MML aluminum pistons Moe lost foam castings Powdeed metal ods; ceamiclmetal composite ods, pins, pistons Pecoated sealants to steel fo gaskets, pepaint and dy film lube fo oil pans Spay-coated boads fo aluminum blocks Tansmissionlfinal dive: magnesium case, ultahigh-stength steel geas and shafts Tansmission: Aluminum-based metal matix composites Composite diveshafts Compositeslpolyme components Continued gowth of i.e. cast aluminum CVTs in cas 1 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

113 a Magnesium (assuming WV success in Gemany) Magnesium coves Magnesium housings, composite intenal Magnesium substituting fo aluminum Magnesium-possibly Metal matix composite dive shafts Pecoated sealants to steel fo gaskets, pe-paint and dy film lube fo tansmissio~n pans Same type of mateials Use of CVT may become popula with the need to incease fuel economy. Wea-esistant aluminum alloys, without anodizing fo tansmission valves Wide application of flexible lock-up opeation of automatic tansmission equies highe pefomance fiction mateials and fluid. Discussion The majoity of esponses petain to mateial applications o technologies that educe weight. Aluminum, high-stength steel, magnesium, and plastics ae the most fequently mentioned mateials. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations Many of the panelists' esponses ae essentially continuations o extensions of cuent developmental wok. In the coming decade, the industy will likely see inceased usage of aluminum, high-stength steel, magnesium, and plastics. Competition among these mateials will be geat. The development of economically viable applications will inceasingly ely on pocess and technological innovation. The esponses suggest a significant amount of effot on the pat of supplies to develop cost-competitive applications fo a wide ange of mateials. It will be impotant to monito developmental activity in all competing mateials. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 11

114 MAT-26. Please indicate significant new developments that ae likely to emege within the next decade fo each of the following fluids: RESPONSES I expect continued pessue to make cas "maintenance fee" fo 1 yeas, including fluid. The key exception is engine oil. Bake Fluids e Highe tempeatue pefomance, if fluid doesn't disappea. I do not think any fluid othe than DOT-5 gade oil is equied. Longe life (2) Synthetic (2) Engine Oils Engine oils which etain longe fuel economy impovement capability and longe oil-dain intevals while keeping phosphous level low to avoid catalyst poisoning Extended dain oils High-tempeatue stability, longe change intevals, inceased synthetic use Inceased usage of synthetic oils Less contaminants to pollution contol devices, O2 senso, catalysts Longe life, lowe fiction Longe times between changes e Low viscosity oils, fuel-economy impovements, longe oil-change intevals, highe-cost oil Lowe viscosity oils Powe Steeing Fluids "Lifetime" fluids o No-change powe steeing fluid No specific fluid is equied Radiato Fluids "Lifetime" fluids e e 1-yea life equiements Continue to extend life beyond 5 yeas to life of vehicle (1 yeas) Extended life packages, popylene-glycol fomulations I don't think any new coolants ae equied. 12 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

115 Life time coolants-oganic acid technology Long-life fluids Longe life ethylene-glycol coolants, some polypopylene-glycol coolants Oganic and envionmentally fiendly Tansmission Fluids "Lifetime" fluids Automatic tansmission fluids which show highe shea stability and antishudde pefomance fo flexible lock-up opeation Highe tempeatue, longe life Long life, bette wea potection Lowe viscosity at low tempeatue Moe synthetic-based fluids No change fo custome tansmission fluid Rea Axle Fluids Long-lifelfuel-efficient fluids Lowe viscosity fluids Moe synthetic-based fluids Discussion In the next decade, panelists expect longe life and extended peiods between change fo all listed fluids. They also foecast inceased usage of synthetic fluids fo seveal applications. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations Panelists foecast only incemental changes fo automotive fluids in the coming decade. Howeve, by 27, each of the listed fluids is foecast to have significantly longe liife. The panel indicates that consideable effot is cuently being focused on the development of fl~~ids that will be engineeed to last a lifetime. Envionmental consideations will affect seveal listed fluids. Because of envionmental concens, polypopylene-glycol adiato fluid is expected to see inceased usage as a eplacement fo the ethylene-glycol mixtue. Although, the polypopylene mixtue does meel: manufactue equiements, it does not have the heat contol popeties of the ethylene glycol mix. The O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 13

116 polypopylene mixtue also is moe expensive. Howeve, it is possible that the envionmental advantages of the new fluid will eventually outweigh the cost and pefomance concens, and it will gain wide acceptance. Anothe envionmental challenge will be the economical and safe ecycling of automotive fluids. Thee ae cuently a numbe of automotive fluids that ae ecycled. It is likely that pogams designed to eclaim these fluids will expand. The panelists expect incemental impovements in moto oils, leading to bette antioxidants, antiwea, educed fiction, and longe life. Panelists also expect inceased use of synthetic moto oils, but it is likely the highe cost of synthetic oils will pevent widespead use O Copyight The Univesity of ~ichi~an All ights eseved.

117 MAT-27. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca an~d light tuck engines in 22 and 27 will utilize cast ion o aluminum cylinde heads and blocks? Heads Cast ion Aluminum Blocks Cast ion Aluminum Passenge Cas Mateial Est. 1996* 13.7% % 16.5 Median Response % 5% % 5% 25 5 Intequatile Range O%I % %1 1 ;;l6;% Light Tuck - Heads Cast ion Aluminum Blocks Cast ion Aluminum Mateial 1 Est. 1996* 76.8% % 2.6 I Median Response I intequa-1 Othe head mateials Composite: Passenge Ca: 22,1%; 27,2%; Light Tuck: 22,%; 27,1% Magnesium: Passenge Ca: 22,3%; 27, 5%; Light Tuck: 22,%; 27, 3% Magnesium: Passenge Ca: 22,%; 27, 1 %; Light Tuck: 22,%; 27, % 22 piq Selected edited comments A change to aluminum cylinde heads will be acceleated in passenge cas, but not so fo the blocks because of wea poblems. Light tucks will follow the passenge ca tend but diesel engines fo tucks will still use cast ion head and blocks. Aluminum in these applications is the most effective mass eduction and will be diven by CAFE equiements. Cast aluminum is a cost-effective mass eduction application, and heads and blocks ae key poducts. Diesels ae becoming pefeed to gasoline engines to meet moe stingent fuel-economy standads, and this means elatively high cast ion shae in light tucks. Magnesium may stat making inoads in this aea, late in the decade. 22 6% 4 9% % 6 75% % % 112 *Souce: Wad's Automotive Repots, Feb. 3 & Feb. 24, Rates fo 1996 ae based on poduction in US., Canada and Mexico fo the U.S. maket O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 15

118 Thee is some possibility fo magnesium block (o othe, if altenate powetains ae implemented). Thee will be some allowance fo altenate block mateials by 27. Discussion Panelists foecast 95 pecent of cylinde heads and 5 pecent of engine blocks fo passenge cas will be made fom aluminum by 27. Panelists foecast 6 pecent of cylinde heads and 25 pecent of engine blocks fo light tucks will be made fom aluminum by 27. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Compaison of foecast: TECH-62a Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between technology and mateials panelists fo the cylinde blocks in passenge cas and cylinde heads in light tucks in the yeas shown in the following table. Aluminum Technology panelists foecast a lowe use of aluminum in passenge ca cylinde blocks and light tuck cylinde heads than mateials panelists. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was changed to sepaate the foecast fo passenge cas and light tucks fo the 1994 Delphi VII. Theefoe, diect compaisons with Delphi foecasts pio to Delphi VII ae not possible. The Delphi IX foecast is simila to the two pio foecasts. Stategic consideations The substitution of aluminum fo cast ion in cylinde blocks and heads offes substantial weight eduction oppotunity at an acceptable cost penalty. The industy has developed a comfot level with aluminum engine heads and is apidly gaining confidence with aluminum engine blocks. Howeve, some questions may emain egading noise suppession and duability-especially fo light tuck applications. Cast ion sleeves ae cuently used in all Noth Ameican-poduced aluminum engine blocks to addess noise suppession and duability concens. (MAT-28, MAT-29). 16 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

119 Light tucks ae foecast to see steady gowth in the use of aluminum fo cylindle heads and engine blocks. The authos offe one caveat: thee is a significant amount of discussion egading lage inceases in light tuck CAFE. If any such convesion does occu, the convesio~n to aluminum cylinde heads and blocks would likely be apid. Though a cascading effect, the convesion to aluminum cylinde heads and blocks--especially in the case of majo vehicle edesign-can allow fo futhe weight eduction. Weight savings can cascade into numeous othe pats of the vehicle. Fo example, if the decision is made in the design of a new vehicle to use an engine with an aluminum cylinde head and engine block, athe than a cast ion block, it is likely that many othe components can be made lighte. These may include the engine cadle, font suspension, bakes, ties, and even fame components. As these additional components ae made lighte, the fuel economy of the vehicle will incease. A total analysis of the vehicle is thus equied to detemine the total weight savings and systems level cost obtained by substituting aluminum fo cast ion in cylinde heads and engine blocks. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 17

120 MAT-28. What pecentage of the aluminum blocks foecast in MAT-27, will be sleeved, unsleeved and coated, and unsleeved in 27? Unsleeved and coated Selected edited comments * Souce: OSAT estimates Electo- o plasma-coated blocks will be intoduced mainly by Euopean OEMs. Discussion Panelists foecast that 8 pecent of aluminum cylinde blocks in 27 will be sleeved. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys / Long-tem Foecast fo Unsleeved and Coated Aluminum Cylinde Blocks 1 Unsleeved and coated The long-tem foecast fo the past five Delphi suveys has shown a educed expectation by the late panels fo sleeveless cylinde blocks. Stategic consideations Delphi v 2 3% Delphi VI 2 Few questions bette illustate the difficulty of intoducing new mateial technologies to the automotive industy. The ability to manufactue sleeveless aluminum cylinde blocks cuently exists. Seveal offshoe manufactues cuently do so. Howeve, thee does not appea to be a sufficient comfot level o weight eduction incentive among manufactues to intoduce sleeveless aluminum cylinde blocks in Noth Ameica. Manufactues ae comfotable with the cuent cast ion sleeved aluminum engine blocks. With an inceasing emphasis on quality, eliability, and duability, manufactues will be cautious in implementing any technology that may negatively impact these attibutes. This is especially tue fo applications as citical as the powetain. 2% Delphi Delphi VII I Vlll % 2% Delphi IX 27 1% O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

121 MAT-29. What pecentage of the sleeved aluminum blocks foecast in MAT-2!8 will use the following sleeve mateials in 27? Sleeve Mateial Aluminum 39 alloy Cast ion Ceamic Mateial matix composites Est. 1996* % 1 Median Response % 83 lntequatille Range i 2 1 I I I * Souce: OSAT estimat~ss Selected edited comments Cast ion domination will continue with only expeimental use of othe mateials. Discussion Panelists foecast cast ion (83 pecent) to be the pedominant sleeve mateial fo aluminum blocks in the coming decade. All othe listed mateials ae foecast to see only limited application. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manu~factues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the 1996 Delphi Vlll suvey. A simila question uas also asked in the 1989 Delphi V suvey. The Delphi Vlll and Delphi IX panels ae much less agg~essive in thei foecast of altenative sleeve mateials than was the Delphi V panel. The Delphi V panel foecast application ates fo steel (1 pecent), aluminum (5 pecent) and ceamic (5 pecent) fo 2. It appeas that the industy has significantly educed its expectations fo these altenate mateials. Stategic consideations In the coming decade, cast ion will continue to be the pedominate mateial fo aluminum cylinde block sleeves. Panelists show little o no expectation fo the use of the othe listed mateials. Application of these altenate mateials will be slow due to cost, quality, eliability, and duability issues. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 19

122 MAT-3. Fo the following Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca and light tuck engine components, please indicate what pecentage is likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently and by 22 and 27. Please total each component to 1 pecent. Leave blank any component with which you ae not familia. Camshaft Cast ion Component Mateial (Intenal) Composites (e.g., steellpowdeed metal combination) Steel Cu. Est. Median Response 8% % % 45 5 Cu. Est % lntequatile Range % % Metal matix composites Powdeed metals Hybid (e.g., plastic skittceamic cown) Metal matix composites Aluminum matix composite O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

123 Component Mateial (Engine Exteio) Median Response Cu. Est. Ai Cleane Housing Aluminum Plastic Steel Exhaust Manifold Cast ion Stainless steel Font Cove Aluminum Cast ion Intake Manifold Aluminum Cast ion Plastic Oil Pan Aluminum Magnesium Plastic Steel Rocke Am Cove Aluminum Magnesium Plastic Steel Othe mateial components: Connecting Rod: Titanium: Cuent estimate, %; 22, 1%; 27, 2% Exhaust Manifold: Cast steel: Cuent estimate, 2%; 22, 5%; 27, 1% Composite: Cuent estimate, %; 22, 5%; 27, 1% Hi-Temp Plastic: Cuent estimate, %; 22, %; 27,2% Font Cove Magnesium: Cuent estimate, %; 22, %; 27, 5% Plastic: Cuent estimate, 2%; 22, 26%; 27, 26% 1ntake.Manifold: Magnesium: Cuent estimate, 2%; 22,2%; 27, 5% Oil Pan: Aluminum/magnesium: Cuent estimate, 1%; 22, 15%) 27, 2% Aluminun/Magnesium: Cuent estimate, 5%; 22, 6%, 27, 5% Intequatile Range T p i i 7 - j O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 111

124 Cast AL: Cuent estimate, 5%; 22, 54%; 27, 4% Piston: Aluminum/ceamic coating: Cuent estimate, %; 22, I%, 27, 3% Valves: Ceamic: Cuent estimate, %; 22, %; 27, 5% Titanium Aluminide: Cuent estimate, %; 22, 1 %; 27, 5% Selected edited comments e Ceamics and MMC might see some expeimental level of application but I don't see wide use. Plastic usage will be somewhat limited because of ecycling concens and highe tempeatue equiements, except fo the intake manifold whee huge weight eductions ae appaent. In geneal, the tend will be towads lightweight mateials such as aluminum, magnesium, and plastics and away fom steel and cast ion fo coves and manifolds. Plastic and magnesium applications in the engine aea will be somewhat esticted by the tendency of inceasing tempeatue. The tend will be towads using light mateials: aluminum, magnesium, and plastics. Use of plastics is expected to decline due to ecycling issues. Magnesium and aluminum will be favoed. Discussion The panel foecasts a continued tend towad lightweight mateials fo engine applications in the coming decade. Fo intenal engine components, the panel pedicts inceased penetation fo composite camshafts, steel cankshafts, powdeed metal connecting ods, and plastic fuel ails. Initial penetation fo metal matix composites is foecast fo connecting ods and pistons. Fo extenal engine components, the panel foecasts inceased penetation fo stainless-steel exhaust manifolds, aluminum font coves, plastic intake manifolds, ocke am coves and ai cleane housings, and aluminum and plastic oil pans. Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, the manufactues (15 pecent) cuent estimate fo steel cankshafts is lowe than the supplies (36 pecent). Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys A compaison of the last fou Delphi suveys (see table) pesents an excellent example of the evolution of mateials usage. Often foecasts of new mateials ae athe inflated as panelists, encouaged by ealy esults, foecast apid gowth. These foecasts fo apid gowth ae often followed by the ealization that significant hudles emain. In time, these hudles ae often ovecome, and the mateials ae accepted. Howeve, thee ae instances whee othe mateials aise that eplace the ealie "best new candidate". The foecasts fo Camshaft (lobes) best show this: Fo seveal yeas, foged steel was viewed as the mateial that would eplace cast ion as the mateial of choice fo camshaft lobes. Howeve, the Delphi IX foecast indicates that powdeed metal is apidly becoming the pefeed mateial fo camshaft lobes pp 112 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. -

125 I Compaison of Delphi VI, Delphi VII, Delphi Vlll and Delphi IX Foecasts I Camshaft Component Mateial (Intenal) Cast ion Composites (e.g., steellpowdeed metal combination) Steel Cankshaft Cast ion Steel Connecting Rod Aluminum Cast ion Metal matix composites Powdeed metals Steel Piston Aluminum cast Aluminum einfoced Hybid (e.g., plastic skitlceamic cown) Metal matix composites Valves Aluminum matix composite Steel Titanium Component Mateial: Selected Intenal Engine Components Shot-tem Long-tem I - Delphi Delphi Delphi Delphi Delphi Delphi VI I Del;,hi 2o2 IX 2 2 :7 2: 98% nla O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 113

126 Component Mateial (Engine Exteio) Ai Cleane Housing Aluminum Plastic Steel Exhaust Manifold Cast ion Stainless steel Intake Manifold Aluminum Cast ion Plastic Oil Pan Aluminum Magnesium Plastic Steel Rocke Am Cove Aluminum Magnesium Plastic Steel Compaison of Delphi VI, Delphi VII, Delphi Vlll and Delphi IX Foecasts Component Mateial: Selected Extenal Engine Components Shot-tem Long-tem 1998 Delphi VII 1% % 2 6% 2 5 n/a% nla % ' 2 Delphi Vlll 5% % 3 6% 1 3 nla% nla % Delphi IX 5% % 3 6% 35 15% 5 8 4% Delphi VI n/a% nla nla 55% 35 6% 1 2 n/a% nla 1 5 2% Delphi VI I 15% 5 3 7% 25 7% 1 15 n/a% nla % Delphi Vlll % 95 5% 5 5% 5 n/a% nla 3 7 3% Delphi IX 3% 9 5% 4 5% 5 2% % Stategic consideations Fo seveal yeas, automotive industy has been (inceasingly) substituting lightweight mateials fo cast ion and steel in engine applications. As components made fom altenative mateials appoach manufactuing scale economies, these mateials may apidly become the industy standad. Also, fo many of the listed components, Noth Ameican manufactues may be behind offshoe companies in conveting to lightweight mateials fo the listed engine components. Intenal engine components Camshafts illustate the eve-inceasing competition between lightweight mateials. Fo seveal yeas, it was thought that foged steel, would eplace cast ion as the mateial of choice fo camshaft lobes. Many companies invested heavily in technology to manufactue nea net shape steel foged camshafts. Howeve, the Delphi IX foecast indicates that powdeed metal is apidly becoming the pefeed mateial fo camshaft lobes. Cankshafts ae expected to continue a steady shift fom cast ion to foged steel. Powdeed metal is also expected to become the dominant mateial fo connecting ods by 27. Plastic fuel ails continue to see inceased usage in Noth Ameican vehicles. Plastic fuel ails offe oppotunity fo educed weight and pat consolidations. 114 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

127 Extenal engine components The panel foecasts aluminum and plastic to gain equal shaes of the intake manlfold maket by 27. Both mateials have poven to be viable contendes. This may be a calse whee two mateials become the accepted standad fo a component. Howeve, slight impovenents in eithe mateial o pocess technology may make a significant diffeence fo futue matleial selection decisions and theefoe should be closely monitoed. Plastics ae expected to see stong gains in the listed coves and housings. It is likely that weight eduction and design flexibility will povide plastics with stong advantages ove cuent mateials. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 115

128 MAT-31. What pecentage of spak-ignited engines in Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas will use these ceamic engine components in 22 and 27? Piston ings, coating Tubochage tubineloto (based on % of engines equipped with tubochages) Valvetain components (includes valves, insets, guide seats, tappets, cam, etc.) Wist pins Selected edited comments I don't believe ceamic will be used anywhee whee a chip could cause seious damage to the engine. To my knowledge, all pogams in this aea have been stopped. Use of a solid ceamic component is quite questionable because of its cost and potential fo catastophic failue, except in the aeas of seals and tubine otos. I athe expect coating applications fo piston sufaces o valve sufaces as a heat insulation measue. Discussion Panelists foecast little penetation of ceamics fo all applications by 22 and limited gowth though 27. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. 116 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

129 Compaison of foecast: TECH-68 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between te!chnology and mateials panelists fo the ceamic engine components in passenge cas in the yeas shown in the following table. I Ceamic Engine Components - Pecent I Piston uppe ing land Seals Technology panelists foecast a highe use of ceamic mateials in passenge ca engine piston uppe ing lands and seals than mateials panelists. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The application of ceamics fo engine components in spak-ignited engines has been asked in diffeent foms thoughout the nine Delphi suveys. Although the questions have vaied between suveys, thee is a significant tend towad deceased optimism with egad to the potential of ceamics in engine components. The 1998 Delphi IX panel continues this tend and is, in fact, less optimistic than any pevious panel. Stategic consideations TECH TECH Pesently thee is no significant use of ceamics in the listed spak-ignited components. While ceamics pesent some intiguing mateial chaacteistics, significant doubts emain. The panelists' foecast suggests that thee is geat doubt egading the cost, manufactuability aid duability of ceamics. A decade ago thee was stong suppot fo a ceamic-intensive engine. This enthusiasm has subsided, and it is likely that ceamics will gain only limited acceptance on a pat- by-pat basis in the coming decade. MAT O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 117

130 MAT-32. Which powetain components fo Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks will be made fom vaious foms of powdeed metals in 1997, 22, and 277 Powdeed Metal Components Connecting ods Tansmission geas Valvetain components: Camshaft lobes Rocke ams Tappetslliftes Valve guides Valve seat insets Median Response Cu. Est % 4% 53% % 2% 3% lntequatile Range Cu. Est % 3115% 45179% % 15125% 2145% / Selected edited comments None Discussion Panelists foecast stong gowth in powdeed metals fo connecting ods, camshaft lobes, valve guides and valve seat insets. Although seveal of the intequatile anges ae somewhat wide, it is likely that the industy will continue to apidly expand powde-metal usage in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. 118 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

131 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys A eview of the foecasts fom the thee most ecent Delphi suveys suggests significant uncetainty egading the futue application of powdeed metals fo the listed components. The foecast fo seveal of the listed components indicates a faily steady gowth tend, yet the foecasts fo valve insets, tansmission geas and valve guides show a significant amount of vaiation between foecasts. The table shows the long-tem foecasts fo the 1994 Delphi VII, 1996 Delphi Vlll and the 1998 Delphi IX. Connecting ods Valve seat insets Valve guides Tappetslliftes Stategic consideations Long-Tem Foecast fo Selected Components Components Delphi VII Delphi Vlll Delphi IX 6% % Powdeed metal continues to gain acceptance fo many automotive engine applications. The ability to achieve nea net shapes with powdeed metals offes the oppotunity fo cost eduction. Powdeed metals also offe the oppotunity to design-in popeties by contolling the alloys and densities of vaious mixtues-theeby allowing fo a moe application-specific mateial. Powdeed metals will likely continue to see significant gowth in many engine applications. Because of the ecent apid implementation of powdeed metals, and the vast aay of mixtues and popeties, it is essential to closely monito the industy fo futhe developments. 53% O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 119

132 MAT-33. What pecentage of the following Noth Ameican-poduced components will be made of aluminum, coppe o plastic in 22 and 27? Please estimate fo cuent vehicles, Passenge Ca Median Response lntequatile Range Mateial Cu. Est Cu. Est Engine Oil Coole Aluminum 5% 65% 81% 38/7% 55183% 7199% Coppe Plastic Heate Coes Aluminum 7% 8% 98% 5183% 719% 811 % Coppe / Plastic Radiatos Aluminum 7% 8% 95% 58186% 719% 7511 % Coppe /4 3/ Plastic Tansmission Oil Coole Aluminum 5% 6% 7% 25155% 4/75% 611 % Coppe / Plastic 1 1 Light Tucks Mateial Median Response Cu Est. lntequatile Range Cu. Est Engine Oil Coole Aluminum 5% 6% 75% 2816% 38/76% 54199% Coppe Plastic Heate Coes Aluminum 5% 7% 83% 5165% 618% 7311 % Coppe Plastic Radiatos Aluminum 5% 66% 8% 318% 4419% 6198% Coppe Plastic Tansmission Oil Coole Aluminum 4% 55% 7% 215% 3175% 511 % Coppe Plastic O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

133 Selected edited comments I believe aluminum has made its maximum penetation in the heat exch~ange maket. Coppelbass will fight to egain some of this maket by making stonge alloys. Plastics may be used fo heades, but not the actual heat exchange pat. Radiato end tanks will be plastic. Discussion Panelists foecast aluminum to futhe incease penetation in each of the listed heat exchange components. Panelists expect aluminum to have highe penetation ates in passenge cas than light tucks fo engine oil cooles, heate coes, and adiatos. The panel does not foecast plastics to be used in any of the listed components in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manu~factues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys While in geneal ageement with the 1996 Delphi Vlll panel, the long-tem foecast of the 1998 Delphi IX panel foecasts highe penetation ates fo aluminum in all listed components. The table shows the 1996 Delphi Vlll and 1998 Delphi IX long-tem foecasts fo aluminum in each of the listed components. Foecast fo Aluminum Usage in Listed Components, Long-tem Foecast, Delphi Vlll(25) and Delphi IX (27) Mateial Engine oil coole Heate coes Radiatos Tansmission oil coole Stategic consideations Passenge Ca Delphi Vlll ( Delphi lx 75% 81 % Light tuck Delphi Vlll I Delphi 57% I I I I Panelists expect the tend to eplace coppe with aluminum in all of the listed c:omponents to continue though the foecast peiod. Although the coppe industy has had some success in developing cost and weight competitive components, much of the ecent manufactuing investment has been in aluminum pocesses. This new investment will epesent a significant baie fo futue coppe application. The panel foecasts no usage of plastic fo any of the listed components. Howeve, thee is inteesting developmental wok that may lead to initial application in the coming decade. It will be citical to monito this wok. It may be an ealy indicato of futue change. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

134 MAT-34. What pecentage of gasoline-fueled Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks will have fuel tanks made fom steel,. plastic. o othe mateials by 22 and 277 Please estimate fo cuent vehicles. Othe mateials: Stainless: Cuent estimate; 5%, 22; 1%) 27; 1% Selected edited comments e Because undebody space is becoming a pemium, plastic will continue to gain shae egadless of pice. By 27, hydofomed aluminum tanks will be available. Change to plastics seems to be acceleating and tend will be boosted by the intoduction of smalle and moe fuel-efficient new models like Mecedes Benz A-Class. Space is becoming moe and moe citical. Cost and design flexibility of plastic tanks will allow tend to continue away fom steel. It is unlikely that significant vapo-contol impovement will offset inceased equiements to allow fo inceased plastic usage. It seems that Toyota is the only majo OEM not committed to the convesion to blow-molded HDPE fuel tanks. Mass eduction and impovements with emissions will allow plastics to become the pefeed mateial. Mass eduction, packaging and cost will all favo plastic. Packaging is the cuent concen, but the deceasing cost of steel tanks and inceasing costs of multilayeed plastic tanks will etun all but the most demanding packaging poblems to steel. Recent global legislative actions limiting the use of cetain coosion-esisting coatings (e.g., tene plate and zinc dichomate) will push the balance towad plastic. The tend of plastic fuel tanks is getting moe and moe clea. Despite tighte vapo contol equiement, a moe simple and eliable antipemeation pocess will make this easie. Unless the vulneable EVOH baie laye actually fails in the field o fails SHED testing afte exposue, plastic will continue to displace metal. EVOH is n ~ an t ideal baie. Discussion The panel foecasts plastic to be the dominant mateial fo fuel tanks by O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

135 Manufactueisupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manu'factues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX foecasts continue the tend set foth by pevious panels fo a steady shift fom steel to plastic fo gasoline fuel tanks. Stategic consideations Because plastic fuel tanks offe the oppotunity fo significant weight savings, coosion potection, and unmatched design flexibility, they ae likely to see continued gowth in application fo both passenge cas and light tucks. Howeve, some concen ove the potential of plastic tanks to meet possible evapoative emission equiements emains. The panelists foecast steel to continue as a viable altenative fo gasoline fuel tanks in the coming decade. Finally, the comment egading hydofomed-aluminum fuel tanks waants noting. Although aluminum does not appea to be a candidate fo fuel tanks in the shot-tem, thee is significant developmental activity in this aea. These developments should be monitoed fo futue beakthoughs that may make aluminum a competitive fuel-tank mateial. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 123

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137 MAT-35. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas ancl light tucks will use an integal fame o othe design in 22 and 27? Fame Constuction Est. 1996* Passenge Cas Integal bodylfame o unibody 91% 9% 9% 89192% 81192% Sepaate bodylfame Space fame Spot Utility Vehicle Integal bodylfame o unibody 16% 2% 25% 17125% 214% Sepaate bodylfame Space fame Pickup Integal bodylfame o unibody % Median Response lntequat~ile Range Sepaate bodylfame I ( I Space fame *Wad's Automotive Reoots. Jan. 2 is Feb Rates fo 1996 ae based on poduction in US., Canada, and Mexico fo the U.S. maket. Selected edited comments Each categoy of vehicles will seek distinctions fom othes and this means moe integal bodies fo passenge cas and minivan and moe sepaate body fo spot utility vehicles;. Thee is no eason fo pickups to seek othe body stuctues. The LTS poject has demonstated the ability of body integation of font and ea fames to be an effective means of impoving stuctual pefomance and educing mass and cost. It will be adopted on an inceasing numbe of vehicles. Unibody is still the most effective stuctue. Discussion Panelists foecast little o no change in fame constuction fo passenge cas ancl pickup tucks and only a slight incease in unibody fame constuction fo spot utility vehicles in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. % % 1 1% 15 15% GI Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 125

138 Compaison of foecast: TECH-43 Thee is a statistically significant diffeence in mean esponses between technology and mateials panelists fo pickup tucks in the yeas shown in the following table. Technology panelists foecast a highe use of integal bodylfame fo pickup tucks than panelists. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys Fo passenge cas, this question has been unchanged since the 1994 Delphi VII. The Delphi IX panel is in close ageement with ealie panels. This question was futhe changed to include sepaate foecasts fo spot utility vehicles and pickup tucks in the 1996 Delphi VIII. Theefoe compaison with foecasts pio to Delphi Vlll is not possible. The Delphi IX panel has a lowe longtem foecast use of unibody spot utility vehicles (25 pecent) than the Delphi Vlll panel (3 pecent). Stategic consideations In the coming decade, the integal (o unibody) fame constuction will continue to be the dominant fame design fo the Noth Ameican passenge ca industy. The panel also expects an inceased numbe of spot utility vehicles to be built using unibody design. Unibody constuction is inheently a weight savings stuctue vis-a-vis the sepaate bodylfame and space fame altenatives. As manufactues continue to expeience inceased pessue to educe weight, unibody constuction will continue to offe the most viable design fo passenge cas. It will also be inceasingly viewed as an altenative fo spot utility vehicles. The spot utility maket is in the midst of significant change. Many of the initial enties wee engineeed fom existing pickup tuck platfoms. Inceasingly, companies ae developing compact and subcompact SUVs fom unibody ca platfoms. In 1997, Mecedes Benz intoduced the M- Class, a luxuy SUV built using the sepaate bodylfame design. In 1998, Lexus intoduced a luxuy SUV (not built in Noth Ameica) that uses unibody constuction. These two vehicles give some indication that thee ae likely to be many diffeent stategies in the SUV maket. The panel's continued expectations fo a slightly highe usage of space fames is vey inteesting. Space-fame constuction is foecast to account fo 8 pecent of the passenge ca maket by 27. Cuently, Geneal Motos' Satun is the only high-volume vehicle manufactued in Noth Ameica using the space fame. Satun's independence is cuently in doubt and any futhe assimilation into the paent company could tempoaily signal the end of the high-volume space fame. Although the Delphi IX panel's foecast is fo a continued dominance of the unibody design fo passenge cas, thee emains the potential fo hybid fame designs in the coming decade. 126 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

139 Significant effot is being given to the development of lighte weight vehicles. This clevelopmental effot may lead to new designs that quickly become viable altenatives. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 127

140 MAT-36. Please foecast the mateial mix of steel, aluminum and plastic famelstuctual membes in both integal bodylfame and space fame Noth Ameicanpoduced passenge cas in 22 and 27. Fame Mateials Integal BodylFame o Unibody Steel Aluminum Plastics Space Fame Steel Aluminum Plastics Est. 1996* Median Response lntequatile Range *Souce: OSAT estimates Selected edited comments Aluminum space fames could be expeimentally intoduced befoe 22 and, if field acceptance is as expected, its shae will incease. New space fame vehicles will be aluminum but most vehicles will not be space fames. Tailo-welded blanks may expand to tailo-welded extusion, which may expand the use of multimetals fo bodylfame pats. The dominant challenge is cost-to-manufactue, which will be mitigated by equiements fo highe fuel economy and high-speed poduction techniques. The space fame vehicle is neithe cost- no mass-effective. I don't expect to see it used except in ae niches. Discussion Steel is foecast to emain the dominant mateial fo famelstuctual membes in the coming decade. Howeve, panelists expect aluminum to be used fo limited unibody (5 pecent) and space fame (1 pecent) applications by 27. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. 128 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

141 Stategic consideations Steel will likely continue to be the pedominant mateial fo all types of fame constuction in the coming decade. Although steel suffes fom a weight disadvantage vis-a-vis aluminum, it povides a significant cost advantage. Steel also benefits fom having been the mateial of choice fo nealy a centuy. The combination of a cost advantage and a high comfot level places steel in a vey stong position. Seveal manufactues ae woking intensely to develop aluminum fame technology. Howeve, significant cost, bonding, and manufactuing challenges emain. Cuently the Plymaluth Powle is the only aluminum-intensive vehicle manufactued in Noth Ameica. Two othe aluminum intensive vehicle ae sold in Noth Ameica: the Honda NSX and the Audi A8. Howeve, these vehicles ae poduced elsewhee. Inteestingly, each of the thee vehicles is built using a diffeent fame design. The Powle has a pedominantly aluminum body on an aluminum fame, the NSX is; an aluminum integal fame constuction with aluminum panels, and the A8 has an extuded al~~minum space fame with aluminum panels. The Geneal Motos EV-1 also uses an aluminu~ fame. The lessons leaned fom these pogams and othe developmental wok will be i~stumental in developing confidence with aluminum fame stuctues. An impotant dive in the development of aluminum-famed vehicles has been the poactive wok of aluminum supplies-supplies who have played a key ole in each of the afoementioned pogams. Thei contibutions have anged fom the development of mateials, to tile design and manufactue of the vehicle. The panel foesees no usage of composite fame designs in the coming decade. Although the USCAR Automotive Composites Consotium continues to make pogess on pecompetitive issues petaining to composite fames, many majo hudles emain. Safety may pesent a significant baie fo composite fame usage, although thee is consideable disageement on this point. Unlike steel and aluminum, finite element models ae not eadily available fo comlposite fames. Until thee is some comfot with the pedictability of composites duing a cash, it is unlikely that manufactues will use composites fo citical fame/stuctual applications. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 129

142 MAT-37. What ae the most significant challenges fo the inceased usage of stuctual composites? Please conside all aspects of the vehicle/component life cycle. (Emboldened headings epesent authos goupings of common ideas.) RESPONSES Cost Concens Cost (1) COST! COST! COST! System manufactuing and mateials Cost, including the cost of cabon fibes which will be needed in ode to maximize weight savings Labo costs Low-cost cabon fibes Low cost of manufactue--design feedom Mateial cost (2) Mateial cost and fabication cost: mateial cost will decline steadily but fabication cost eduction will be quite difficult. Mateials cost and limited supply base Oveall cost eduction Piece pice-it is high due to both high mateial cost and slow manufactuing time Picelcost atio and level Recyclability (1 3) Recyclability: Reclamation of each component of the mateials is a tough poblem to be solved. The dominant challenge is cost-to-manufactue, which will be mitigated by equiements fo highe fuel economy and high-speed poduction techniques. Willingness of OEMs to phase outlscap existing metal stamping facilities Manufactuing Challenges Attachment techniques Automated lay-up of oientated fibes Component-foming estictions Designes unfamiliaity to use Fastening systems High-volume manufactuing capability-both stuctues Manufactuing cost and vaiability to fabicate components and to assemble vehicle 13 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

143 Manufactuing cycle time Manufactuing impact via new capital and leaning cuve in plants Manufactuing speed, poductivity, cost Reliable joining design and technology: adhesive bonding and mechanical fastening ae not yet fully exploed and need to be efined The development of a space fame design Mateial Popeties and Pefomance Chaacteizing fatiguellife Cash and cash popeties Demonstate competitive life-cycle assessment paametes Duability (2) Enegy absoption Fatigue esistance Field epai afte collision Long-tem duability and eliability Repaiability (3) Unifomity Unknown effect of envionment on stength popeties o duability Othe Challenges a Availability Inspection Lack of knowledge Limited design expeience fo composite stuctues Long poduct--application times fo stuctual pats since customes don't see changes; must impove stuctual stiffness o povide significant cost savings to make inoads New lightweight steel mateials as a competito OEM's eluctance to pessue labo savings-based cost eduction One challenge is poduction technology that allows low cost solutions-essentially net shape pefom; this is not a viable answe today, and based on wok undeway, it may not be viable fo a long time to come. Raw-mateial supplies must join foces to impove the system, not just thei aw mateial. Stuctual design O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 131

144 Supply infastuctue The typical polyeste used in SMC o BMC is low-cost, but the poduction pocess doesn't allow effective use of the mateial. I believe the use of these mateials will decline as design engineeing leans moe about how to utilize all the functional attibutes of altenatives and ceate systems that can compete with steel cost effectively. Discussion The panel views cost, ecyclability, cashwothinesslsafety, and manufactuability as the most significant challenges fo the inceased usage of composites in stuctual applications. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the 1996 Delphi Vlll suvey. The Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with the Delphi Vlll panel. Stategic consideations The use of composites fo stuctual applications pesents many potential advantages, and at least cuently, even moe challenges. Composites offe the oppotunity to significantly educe weight, while inceasing design flexibility and eliminating coosion. Howeve, the panel indicates that thee is a long list of baies to the implementation of stuctual composites. Cost, ecyclability, cashwothinesslsafety, bondingljoining, and manufactuability all appea to be vey significant baies. It is impotant to note that beakthoughs in one o two of these aeas will not necessaily guaantee the inceased application of composites fo stuctual applications The USCAR Automotive Composites Consotium continues to examine manufactuing techniques that may incease the likelihood of futue composite usage fo majo stuctual applications. Inceasingly, thee ae examples of composites being used in weight-beaing stuctual applications such as instument panel and adiato suppots. It is now dependent upon the automotive engineeing and manufactuing community to develop infomation esouces that contain petinent infomation on these ealy adaptations of stuctual composites. The automotive industy has developed a centuy of expeience with steel stuctual components. This long histoy with steel pesents at least two significant baies fo expanded application of stuctual composites. Fist, industy has developed manufactuing stategies that ae based on steel; any shift to composites would equie a significant new tooling investment. Second, many individuals that contol the mateial selection pocess have eached a high level of comfot with steel. They undestand the chaacteistics of steel and ae highly skilled in the design and engineeing of steel stuctual components. These people may peceive using composites fo a stuctual application as unfamilia and too isky. It is possible that a new paadigm in automotive manufactuing and engineeing may be necessay to enable the shift towad composite stuctues. 132 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

145 MAT-38. Conside the following list of Noth Ameican-poduced automotive body components. Please indicate the pecentage of each likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently and in 27. It is not necessay to ente a esponse fo evey component, just those with which you ae familia. Whee you answe, please be sue that vou estimates add up to 1 pecent. Please use zeos whee applicable. Passenge Ca Body Components - Cuently Median Response lntequatile Ra~nge I I I I Mateial Steel Fende 91% Doo 94% panel - Hood T Roof Fende Doo Quate Decklid Hood HSS Aluminum Plastic Themoplastic Themosets 2 3% 1 2 2% 1 I Passenge Ca Body Components - 27 I I- Mateial - Steel HSS Aluminum Plastic Themoplastic I Themosets Fende 75% 1 5 5% 1 Doo 75% 1 5 5% Median Response Quate panel 82% 5 2 5% Decklic 75% % - Hood 7% 5 15 % Roof 86% 5 2 % Fende 718% % 14 lntequatile Range I O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 133

146 Light Tuck Body Components - Cuently Median Response lntequatile Range Mateial Fende Doo Hood Roof Tuckbed liftgate Rea hatch Fende Doo Hood Roof Tuckbedl liftgate Rea hatch Steel 1% 1% 95% 1% 1% 98% 111% 111% 91199% 111% 9511 % 9511% HSS Aluminum Plastic Themoplastic Themosets I Light Tuck Body Components - 27 I I I Median Response I lntequatile Range I Mateial % Fende % Doo 2 % Hood % Roof % Tuckbed liftgate % Rea hatch Fende Doo % 1 Hood 1 1 Roof 1 1 1% 1 Tuckbedl liftgate 1 1 1% 12 Rea hatch Steel 9% 86% 75% 97% 8% 8% 8193% 819% 63185% 911% 75194% 68191% HSS Aluminum Plastic Themoplastic % % % % % % 12% 1% 1% 1% 15% Themosets Othe light tuck mateial: Light tuck body components (Rea quate panels) 27: Themoplastic, %; Themosets, 25% Light tuck body components (Rea quate panels) cuently: Themoplastic, %; Themosets, 6% % O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

147 Selected edited comments Bake-hadenable o dent esistant steel is not a tue high-stength low-alloy steel. Failue to adequately define HSS suggests that the totals fo steel should be combined, i.e., steel = steel + HSS. 27 figues will depend on what CAFE is. High fuel-economy models will use aluminum fame stuctue and aluminum add-on panels. I count bake-hadening gade as HSS. Light tuck components could change quickly if CAFE laws change to match cas. Model diffeentiation on a common platfom will dive the economic value of composites. Response pesumes +35 mpg CAFE by 27, paint-bake oven and econlomical RRlM themoset plastic, extensive use of plastic in the pickup tailgate (~5%)~ and 2, plastic composite tuck beds. Lightweight plastics, because of thei decompounding effect on system components weight (and thus cost) ae ideal fo ea hatch stuctues. The above pecentages ae based on the midluxuy ca segment. The biggest winne fo the body panel will be HSS because of safety concens and weight eduction. Themosets (FRP) will continue to suffe fom ecyclability poblems. Discussion Panelists foecast the continuing dominance of steel fo all listed exteio body panels. Fo passenge cas, high-stength steel is foecast to see gowth in all of the listed applications. Aluminum is foecast to see limited gowth in fende, doo, decklid, and hood applications. Themoplastics ae expected to see limited application in fendes and doos. Fo light tucks, high-stength steel is foecast to see gowth in fende, doo and hood applications. Aluminum is also expected to see vey limited application in fendes, doos, hoods, and ea hatches fo light tucks. Themosets ae foecast to see limited application on tuck bedlliftgates and ea hatches. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was significantly changed fo Delphi IX and theefoe compaison with pevious suveys is not possible. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 135

148 Stategic consideations Duing the next decade, steel usage fo exteio body panels is foecast to decline only slightly. The panelists' foecast indicates that steel will likely emain the mateial of choice fo all listed applications. Manufactues and supplies have woked diligently to develop competitive manufactuing pocesses fo altenative mateials, with vaied success. Aluminum has expeienced gowth in hoizontal panels, especially hood applications. In ecent yeas, seveal high volume pogams have committed to aluminum hoods. These pogams have given aluminum a poven tack ecod and may lead to futhe application of aluminum fo hoizontal applications in the futue. The panel expects limited potential fo vetical body panels, although thee may be potential fo highe than foecasted application. Seveal low volume pogams cuently use aluminum fo vetical panels. These pogams have begun to establish a comfot level with aluminum. Reinfoced themoplastics have gained acceptance fo vetical body panels, although they ae used on elatively few pogams. Themoplastics do pesent seveal advantages and may see inceased application in the coming decade. Themoplastics ae peceived as moe ecyclable than themosets and theefoe moe envionmentally fiendly. The panel foecasts little gowth fo themosets in the coming decade. Howeve, it is likely SMC will continue to be viewed as an acceptable altenative, especially if thee ae any inceases in CAFE. 136 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

149 MAT-39. Please ate the elative advantages and disadvantages of each mateial fo body panels ove the specified stages of the vehicle life cycle, 1 Scale: 1 an exteme advantage 3 = neithe advantage no disadvantage 5 an exteme disadvantage Mateial fo Body Panels Aluminum Themoplastics Themosets Steel STAGES OF VEHICLE LIFE CYCLE Raw Mateial Cost Design Mean R ~SDO~S~ - Component Assembly Field Use Vehicle Pocessing Disposal Selected edited comments Aluminum costs ae coming down fast. Costs that wee once 2 to 3 times the pice of steel have been educed to 1.5 to 1.75 times steel's pice. Assembly of themoplastic and aluminum assemblies will save costs (compaed to steel) and offset mateial costs. An infastuctue exists fo 1 pecent ecycling capability fo steel; this will pove to be a key advantage. Design-mass saving of aluminum outweighs its disadvantages; component pocessing-"a" fo class finish emains a poblem fo plastics; assembly-the need fo "El1(coat is a key disadvantage fo steel Given steel's supeioity in nealy evey categoy, it is had to imagine why slch significant amounts of money ae being spent on the use of the othe mateials. The UltaLilght Steel Auto Body (ULSAB) poject cuently being caied out by the wold's leading steel poduces will povide still moe innovative steel-based solutions to poblems of the auto industy and, pehaps, educe the necessity to spend so much on finding altenative solutions. Look fo the pice of aluminum to dop as volumes go up. Also, look fo moe efficient pocessing assembly. Look fo plastic being eplaced with metals (such as aluminum and magnesium and thei composites) due to plastics' ecycling difficulties. Mateial advantage depends on poduction volume and vehicle concept, but gene~ally speaking, with inceasing needs of low cost and lighte weight, each of the above mateial!; will find thei usage in vaious vehicles. Thee will be no single mateial domination. Once enegy ecovey fom plastic waste becomes acceptable, then steel and aluminum will lose the cuent tempoay advantage at the vehicle's end of life. Polyme-based systems, paticulaly glass einfoced composites, facilitate modula assembly and lowe vehicle cost. Reinvestment economics will limit aluminum use. Raw mateial costs in tems of $lipat, $/pound. Themosets ae both RRIM (a $1.25/1b., sp. g. 1.25) and e.g. SMC ($.8511b. and sp. g. 1.7). "Assembly" includes complex shapes and pats consolidated. "Field use" includes both duability and fuel economy. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 137

150 Steel is still the mateial of choice and the standad of the industy. Steel emains the mateial of choice because of cost, availability, ease of manufactue, altenate joining methods, duability and ecyclability. Aluminum is disadvantaged with egad to cost, fomability. and joining. Steel still dominates the shae fo panels because of its vesatile pocessability and ecyclability. New technology is expected to impove its stength-to-weight atio futhe, enabling the use of a thinne gauge panel with the same stength. Steel still holds many advantages ove othe mateials in these applications. Steel will be aound fo the foeseeable futue due to its availability, cost, and ease of fabication. Steel will only slowly get displaced in many applications unless thee ae exteme mass eduction equiements. Aluminum will see lowe applications in cast, extuded and foged applications and limited use in sheet fom. Themoplastic will continue to find applications. Disposal will make wide use of themosets isky. Steel will still be the mateial of choice with inceased usage of stainless and othe alloyed gades. This will foce a new standad in design/manufactuing. The answe depends on vehicle sales volume. The cost categoy emains misstated. It is the assembled cost that is impotant, not $/lb. Fo tue life cycle assessment, the value of fuel economy must be included. The special accommodation of plastic body panels though the paint pocesses emains as thei majo challenge. Fo SMC, it is poosity. Fo themoplastics, and to a lesso extent fo RRIM, it is dimensional change. The value of aluminum sheet, especially with new technology that efficiently sepaates wought aluminum fom cast aluminum, is geatest at disposal. Thee is no diffeence in disposal costs of painted plastics among ETP, SMC, o RRIM. But consideing the pespective of life cycle, disposal issues ae mino. The ating above pesumes full exploitation of polymeic mateial attibutes by competent poduct designes capable of valid plastic stuctue design and not constained by existing poduction and assembly plant capital equiements. The aw-mateial cost fo steel is stable. Themoplastics and themosets can be molded to unusual contous to take advantage of space available unde the hood and body; e.g., many fuel tanks ae fomed to fit iegula contous unde body. Disadvantages include speed of molding (slow, elative to stamping) and joining altenatives. Paint finish is also a concen and themosets ae not easily ecyclable. Ultimately, themoplastics seem like the best technical solution, but economics will slow the convesion. Steel is the only mateial with a seious coosion poblem, but this is a big dawback. With the need fo advance styling, steel will become displaced due to the inability to maintain pocess capability and dimensional stability of body panels. Assembly plants and intefacing component design enginees will become weay of the "floating" dimension of steel body panels and tying to match othe components. 138 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

151 Discussion Panelists ate steel as having an advantage ove the othe listed components in the aw mateial cost, component pocessing, assembly, and vehicle disposal stages of the vehicle life cycle. The panel ates themoplastics as slightly moe advantageous than the othe listed mateials in the design stage and themoplastics, themosets and steel as equally advantagec~us in the field use stage. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations Steel continues to be the mateial of choice fo many body-panel applications. Yet, aluminum and themosets continue to see inceased application ates. In fou of the six life-cycle stages steel is seen as moe advantageous than the othe listed mateials. In the othe two stages, steel is seen as nealy equal to the moe competitive mateial. It is likely that steel will emain the dominant mateial fo body panels in the coming decade. Howeve, one caveat is offeed. This question assumes cuent CAFE standads. If CAFE wee to incease, it is likely that these atings would change dastically. Raw-mateial cost: Steel continues to be ated as extemely advantageous vis-a-vis the othe mateials fo the aw-mateials cost stage. Convesely, aluminum is ated as highly disadvantaged due to its high, and often volatile, cost. Any lasting eduction in the pice of aluminum would likely lead too significant application ates fo aluminum. Raw mateial costs fo theioplastics and themosets ae viewed as neithe an advantage no a disadvantage. Design: The panel ates themoplastics as slightly moe advantageous fo design than themosets and steel. Plastics offe designes vesatility that is difficult to match. It is likely that steel is viewed as design-competitive, not necessaily because of its vesatility, but instead because of the moe than 1 yeas of expeience with the mateial fo automotive body panels. Many cuent mateial enginees began thei schooling with steel and focused little on othe mateials. Although this comfot level cuently may epesent an advantage fo steel, designes and enginees ae apidly gaining inceased familiaity with competing mateials. Any such advantage fo steel will likely quickly disappea. Assembly: Steel is viewed as significantly moe advantageous in the assembly st'age compaed to the othe listed mateials. The automotive industy has developed a centuy of steel-foming knowledge. Fo this eason, combined with a significant investment in tooling, steel pesents a fomidable competito fo the othe competing mateials. Plastics suffe fom a cycle-time disadvantage that may limit usage fo some high-volume pogams, and aluminuni foming and assembly is still vey much a new technology fo the industy. Field use: The fou mateials ae viewed as elatively equal fo field use. Steel suffes fom coosion and highe weight vis-a-vis the othe mateials, but is extemely eliable fo cash pedictability. Plastics pesent significant duability and weight advantages, yet may suffe due to O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 139

152 the lack of pedictability duing a cash. Aluminum saves weight, but pesents galvanic coosion and dent esistance challenges and may pesent challenges fo aftemaket epai--at least initially. Vehicle disposal: Accoding to the panel, steel and aluminum have a significant advantage ove plastics at the vehicle disposal stage. Both steel and aluminum have economically successful ecycling infastuctues. Themoplastics and themosets cuently lack economically viable ecycling infastuctues. 14 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

153 MATQO. Conside the following list of Noth Ameican-poduced automotive bumpe components. Please indicate the pecentage of each likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently and in 27. It is not necessay to ente a esponse fo evey component, just those with which you ae familia. Whee you answe, please be sue that you estimates add up to 1 pecent. Please use zeos whee applicable. 1 Passenge Ca Bumpe Components - Cuently I I Median Response I lntequatile Ranae Steel HSS Aluminum Plastic Mateial Themoplastic Themosets I Fascial bumpe % 8% 2 Suppot Enegy Fascial absoption bumpe 63% 13% 1% % Suppot Enegy absoption 161 % 2176% 121 I Passenge Ca Bumpe Components - 27 I I Median Response I lntequatile Range I Mateial Fascial bumpe Steel HSS Aluminum I O Plastic Themoplastic Themosets 1 1 Suppot 2% 4 Enegy absoption 3% 5 Fasciai bumpe 1% 1 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 141

154 Mateial Steel HSS Aluminum Plastic Themoplastic Themosets Light Tuck Bumpe Components - Cuently Median Response lntequatile Range Fascia1 Suppot Enegy Fascia1 Suppot Enegy bumpe absoption bumpe absoption 7% 8% 73% 6177% 719% 5183% / % % 15% 2125% % 1 4/31 % 19 Plastic Themoplastic Themosets 5% 1% 2% % 15 19% % 12 Selected edited comments Bumpe systems of compact SUVs ae moe like that of passenge cas, and that means moe TPOs fo fascias and enegy absobes. I do not believe that polyolefin-based bumpe fascia will incease its shae compaed to that of themosets (polyuethane) because of its easy ecycling capability. Rathe, I believe it will incease its shae because of cost advantage. Look fo big changes in tuck-bumpe design and mateials to make tucks less aggessive. Plastic (TPO) bumpes will continue to dominate futue tends due to cost advantage, design flexibility and damage esistance. Polyolefin-based bumpe fascia will incease its shae because of its easy ecycling capability compaed to that of themosets (polyuethane). The need fo lighte weight will continue the dive to plastics, including fo pickup ea bumpelfascia. The stength of steel (and fomability) will keep it in good standing. Coosion esistance and lightweight favo plastic composites. The backside coosion of steel bumpelfascia backing will be addessed with pepainted steel that is esistant to attack by plating chemicals fo bight chome bumpes. 142 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

155 The styling whims ae difficult to call fo light tucks. This last bastion fo lightweight bumpes could easily shift away if tucks become even moe ca-like. Discussion The panel foecasts themoplastics to continue to be the dominant mateial fo passenge ca bumpelfascia in the coming decade. High-stength steel, aluminum, and themoplastic ae foecast to see inceased application fo passenge ca bumpe suppots by 27. Fo light tucks, the panel foecasts steel to see educed application and themoplastics to see inceased usage fo fascialbumpes. High-stength steel and aluminum ae foecast to see inceased application fo light tuck bumpe suppots by 27. The wide intequatile anges fo passenge ca and light tuck bumpe enegy-absoption mateial indicates geat uncetainty among panelists egading this mateial. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was significantly changed fo Delphi IX and theefoe compaison with pevious suveys is not possible. Stategic consideations Themoplastic is foecast to inceasingly become the mateial of choice fo bumpelfascia. Themoplastic gains ae expected to be at the expense of themosets fo passenge cas, and steel fo tucks. It is possible that much of the foecast incease in themoplastic bumpe fascias fo light tucks may be due to the expected incease in the numbe of small spot utility vehicle pogams. Many of these vehicles ae built fom passenge ca platfoms, and theefoe ae moe likely to use passenge ca bumpe systems. The foecast indicates seveal mateials ae viewed as pobable candidates fo b~umpe suppot application in the coming decade. It is likely that significant effot will be focused on the development of bumpe suppots made fom high-stength steel, aluminum and themoplastic. These effots should be closely monitoed. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 143

156 MAT-41. Fo the following Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca and light tuck components, please indicate what pecentage is likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently and by 27. Please total each component to 1 pecent. Leave blank any component with which you ae not familia. Component Mateial Seat Fame Aluminum Polyme composite Magnesium High stength steel (HSS) Steel Seat cove Knitted and cut Leathe PVC Uethane Seat cushion Hose hai Polyeste Uethane Wovenlsuspension Capet Fibe Nylon Polyeste Polypopylene Capet backing Polypopylene Instument panel skin TPO Uethane PVC PVCIABS lnstument panel coss beam Aluminum Polyme composite Magnesium High stength steel (HSS) Steel Median Cuent Est. 3% % 1 1 % 1 7% % 5% % 4 9 Response 27 1% % 12 1 % % % 31% % lntequatile Cuent Est. 215% /9 6818% % % % 315% % /95 Range % % % % % 19138% % O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

157 Component Mateial Instument panel etaine ABS Polycabonate (PC) PCIABS alloy Polypopylene SMA Styene Uethane Doo tim panels ABS Polypopylene (PP) Woodlfibe Uethane Inteio tim panels (Ganish- A-pilla, C-pilla, etc.) Polypopylene (PP) ABS Polycabonate (PC) PCIABS alloy Uethane Headline Fibeglass Themoplastic Uethane Fabic Aibag doos Polyeste PolycabonatelABS PVC TPO Uethane Othe component mateials Seat cove: TPO: Cuent estimate, %; 27, 16% Seat cushion: Rubbeized hai: Cuent estimate, 2%; 27, % Median Response Cuent Est I ' " " ' I lntequatile Range O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

158 Capet backing: Polyethylene: Cuent estimate, 1%; 27, 5% lnstument panel skin: No skin, painted PC, PCIABS: Cuent estimate, 13%; 27, 35% lnstument panel coss beam: Blow-molded PP: Cuent estimate, 5%; 27, 25% lnstument panel etaine: SMA PPO: Cuent estimate, 37%; 27, 2% Doo tim panels: SMC, Azdel, composites: Cuent estimate, 1%; 27, 15% Inteio tim panels: Themoplastic Foam PP: Cuent estimate, %; 27,2% Themoplastic: Cuent estimate, %; 27, 2% Selected edited comments Cloth may eplace leathe and vinyl inteio components because it is moe comfotable in cold and hot weathe, less expensive, and easie to epai. Doo tim panels: Polypopylene (PP)-limited only by need to have up-level vehicles with "coveed" panels. PP had to adhee to; if a good adhesive is found, PP penetation could incease to 7 pecent by 27. Fo headlines, many mateials ae combined in a laminate, e.g. nylon fabic, polyethylene adhesive film, chopped glass ove a foam coe (polyuethane o PET, etc.) stiffened with a esin (phenolic o MDI, etc.) adhesive film, etc. Had instument panel is not listed; pehaps instument panel etaine is meant to include this. Polypopylene-based alloy (TPO) will incease its application significantly fom the standpoints of mateial unification in addition to cost savings. TPO will be a dominant mateial fo headlines, aibag doos, and othe inteio pats, because of its wide design capability of popeties and bette cost advantage. Discussion The panel foecasts deceased application of steel and inceased application of lightweight altenatives fo seat fames and instument panel coss beams. They also foecast inceased effot to develop the listed plastic components fom simila plastics families. Manufactuelsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, the manufactues (96 pecent) foecast highe penetation fo uethane seat cushions than do the supplies (87 pecent). Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was not asked in any pevious Delphi suveys. 146 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

159 Stategic consideations Plastic has ceated many oppotunities to educe weight, impove safety, and simplify component design and assembly fo inteio components. The need to incease commonality of mateials fo ecycling puposes has led to inceased inteest in designing goups of components with simila mateials. Weight eduction will also continue to dive inteio component mateial selection. Steel is foecast to decline in usage at the expense of lighte-weight matei'als. Seat fames: The panel expects the usage of steel fo seat fames to decline in the coming decade. Aluminum, high-stength steel and magnesium ae expected to see inceased usage fo seat fame stuctues. Weight eduction will likely foce this change. Thee ae seveal vehicle pogams that cuently use these mateials. Lessons leaned fom these pogams vvill likely be an impotant piece of infomation fo the seat-fame, mateial-selection pocess on futue vehicle pogams. Seat cushion: Uethane is foecast to continue as the dominant mateial fo seat c:ushions in the coming decade. The panel foecasts polyeste to gain initial penetation by 27, howeve. Although uethane is a themoset, and thus potentially moe difficult to ecycle, uethane used fo seat cushions can be ecoveed, and the eclaimed mateial can be epocessed fo application in othe pats. Woven/suspension seat cushions ae foecasted to see vey limited initial poduction within the coming decade. Suspension seats have been commonplace among manufactue concept vehicles fo seveal yeas. Howeve, many challenges emain befoe such seats ae consideed viable fo poduction. Capet fibe: Polyeste (+5 pecent) and polypopylene (+I pecent) ae foecast to incease penetation fo capet fibe in the coming decade. Howeve, nylon is expected to continue to be the most commonly used capet fibe mateial. Capet backing: The only mateial that is expected to be used fo this application is polypopylene. Polypopylene is a low-cost, highly ecyclable mateial that meets all capet backing mateial equiements. lnstument panel skin: TPO is foecast to be used inceasingly fo instument panel skins. Because of its bette long-tem ultaviolet potection, and no plasticizes, TPO offes the oppotunity to impove skin duability. TPO also pesents the oppotunity to moe closely match inteio components made fom polypopylene fo geate ecycling compatibility. Although PVC is consideed the low-cost mateial fo instument skins, envionmental concens will likely lead mateial enginees to inceasingly select TPO. lnstument panel coss beams: The panel foecasts a dastic eduction in steel fo instument panel coss beams. In an effot to educe weight, aluminum, polyme composites, magnesium, and high-stength steel ae all foecast to see inceased application. lnstument panel etaine: The panel foecasts PClABS alloy and polypopylene ito inceasingly be used fo instument panel etaines. The wide intequatile anges suggest uncetainty, o diffeing stategies, egading mateial selection fo instument panel etaines. Polypopylene may be viewed as a stong contende because of its lowe cost and ability to be molded in colo. In addition, polypopylene offes the oppotunity fo weight eduction and inceased conpatibility with othe polypopylene inteio components fo easie ecycling. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 147

160 Doo tim panels: The foecast indicates inceased usage of polypopylene fo doo-tim panels in the coming decade. Weight and cost eduction will likely dive this change. Howeve, because of difficulties associated with adheence of capet o cloth to polypopylene, the mateial may have limitations fo luxuy maket vehicles. Inteio tim panels: The inteio tim panel mateial selection foecasts ae simila to those of doo tim panels. All simple applications ae likely to be polypopylene, but many components that need to be coveed with capeting o cloth may use ABS. Impotantly, polypopylene has poven to be capable of meeting pending head impact egulations. Headline: Uethane is foecast to incease penetation in the coming decade. System soucing will likely favo uethane. Aibag doos: TPO is foecast to incease penetation in the coming decade. The ability to meet mateial pefomance equiements at a low cost, while maintaining ecyclability, position TPO as the likely mateial of choice fo aibag doos. 148 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

161 MAT-42. Conside the following list of Noth Ameican-poduced automotive chassis components. Please indicate the pecentage of each likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently and in 27. Leave blank any components with which you ae not familia. Whee you answe, please ensue that you estimates add to 1%. Please use zeos whee applicable. Chassis Components Contol ams McPheson stut Font spings Rea spings Stabilize ban Steeing knuckle assembly Spindle Knuckle Steeing linkage Idle am Pitman am Tie od Wheels Chassis Components Contol ams Dive shaft Rea axle assembly Geas Diffeential caie Toque tubes Axle shaft Spings Sping coves Stabilize ban Steeing knuckle assembly Spindle Knuckle Steeing linkage Idle am Pitnan am Tie od Wheels PASSENGER CARS - Chassis Components - Cuent Estimate Steel 85% 1% 1 1 1% 98 1% Median Response HSS Aluminum % 1% Steel 75198% 111% % % LIGHT TRUCKS - Chassis Components - Cuent Estimate Steel 1% 94 1% % 1 1% % % % % % % % % 2 % 45 Median Response HSS Aluminum % % 7 % % % 25 Plastic % % % % Plastic % % % % Steel 9511% % % -% lntequatile Range HSS Aluminum % % lntequatile Range HSS Aluminum 1% 13% ' % -% 1% 12 % % % -% 1 -% Plastic -% 14 -% 1 -% 1 1 Plastic -% 1 -% % -% O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 149

162 Chassis Components Contol ams McPheson stut Font spings Rea spings Stabilize bas Steeing knuckle assembly Spindle Knuckle Steeing linkage Idle am Pitman am Tie od Wheels Chassis Components Contol ams Dive shaft Rea axle assembly Geas Diffeential caie Toque tubes Axle shaft Spings Sping coves Stabilize bas Steeing knuckle assembly Spindle Knuckle Steeing linkage Idle am Pitman am Tie od Wheels PASSENGER CARS - Chassis Components - 27 Steel 7% 1% % 7 1% Steel 8% 85 1% % 85 1% 93 1% Median Response HSS Aluminum % 21% % % % Plastic % % LIGHT TRUCKS - Chassis Components - Median Response HSS Aluminum % 1% 15 % % % % % % 3 % 6 % 5 % % 5 % 45 1 % % Plastic % % % 15 % % 27 Steel 5818% 9511% % % /36 Steel 63189% % % % % /73 lntequatile Range HSS Aluminum 11% 15133% 1% 1 1 1% 1 -% % 12% % lntequatile Range HSS Aluminum 19% 3124% 135 -% % -% -% -% % 16% 11 1% Plastic 11 % 1% % 1 1% Plastic -% 15 -% 1 11 % 13 -% 1 1% Selected edited comments A steel industy study of wheels showed that, in 1995, 42 pecent of steel wheels wee made of high-stength gades. Those gades have been gowing 4 to 5 pecent pe yea and should continue. Pehaps "mag wheels" will actually be made fom magnesium if cost comes down and availability goes up. 15 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

163 The need to educe weight both in cas and light tucks will lead to use of lightweight mateials, and the diffeences in mateial selection between the two vehicle types will lessen. Thin wall-cast stainless should gain a 1 pecent shae of chassis components by 27 Discussion The panel foecasts little change in mateial fo most of the listed components. Contol ams and steeing knuckles ae expected to see inceased penetation of aluminum. Tlhe panel also foecasts inceased application of aluminum fo light tuck dive shafts and diffeential caies. The intequatile anges fo passenge cas in 27 suggest some uncetainty egading futue mateial selection fo seveal chassis components. Howeve, steel emains the likely mateial of choice accoding to the panel. Manufactuelsuppiie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, the manufactues (32 pecent) foecast highe penetation fo aluminum contol ams in passenge cas; than do the supplies (1 6 pecent). Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was significantly changed fo Delphi IX and theefoe compaison with pevious suveys is not possible. Stategic consideations Vehicle manufactues face a continuing challenge to educe weight, while maintaining affodability. Steel, although adding weight to a vehicle has poven to be a vey cost-effective mateial fo chassis components. Aluminum is likely to see inceased application fo seveal of the listed components, yet cost will pobably emain an issue. Aluminum will inceasingly be used fo wheels. Aluminum offes a balance of affodability, function, and styling. Howeve, ecent advances in plastic wheel coatings affoded steel the ability to meet styling equiements and may make styled steel wheels moe competitive. We find it somewhat supising that the panel did not foecast any application of high-stength steel fo the listed components. The industy appeas to be elying on steel (and to a lesse degee aluminum) fo futue vehicle pogams. Most manufactues and supplies have significant wok undeway with egad to altenative chassis component mateials. Cuently cost appeas to be the most citical baie to the implementation of these mateials. Any incease in CAFE equiements would likely lead to a much moe apid incease in the penetation ates of the listed lightweight mateials. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 151

164 MAT-43. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks will use mateials othe than conventional glass fo windshields, side windows o ea windows in 22 and 27? 22 Altenative Mateial fo Glass Polycabonate Polycabonate-glass laminates Special coatings andlo intelayes to: Reduce sola load Povide defosting capability Povide abasion esistance fo plastics (e.g., diamond film glazes) Median Response Windshield Side Rea Window Window % 1% % 25% 1 2% 3 25% 1 lntequatile Range Windshield Side Rea Window Window -% 11% 12 % % % % Altenative Mateial fo Glass Polycabonate Polycabonate-glass laminates Special coatings andlo intelayes to: Reduce sola load Povide defosting capability Povide abasion esistance fo plastics (e.g., diamond film glazes) Selected edited comments Median Response Windshield Side Rea Window Window % 4% 2% 2 3 5% 15 5% 1 5 5% 5 Intequatile Range Windshield Side Rea Window Window 11% 111% 19% % % % I do not see glass being eplaced with plastics, due to cost. Plastic windows ae applicable only to side windows because of safety concens and the high cost of abasive coatings. Coatings fo side windows and windshield to educe sola load, especially ultaviolet potection, will become popula. PUB may be a bette choice than polycabonate. Sola glass and possibly new sola developments will be equied in the maketplace. Also, system benefits fo HVAC and inceased plastic-inteio-pat duability will help push sola glass. Cost is the key negative O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

165 Discussion The panel foecast little o no application of polycabonate as an altenative windolw mateial by 22. They foecast only small penetation ates fo polycabonate in side o ea window applications by 27. They expect no use of polycabonate fo windshields in the coming decade. Special coatings and intelayes ae expected to see inceased usage though the foecast peiod. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations Cuent styling themes pomote lage glass sufaces. As moe glass is used, it becomes an inceasingly attactive altenative fo eplacement by lightweight altenatives such as polycabonate. Accoding to the panel, glass will continue to be the mateial of choice fo all listed1 applications. Polycabonate will likely see initial usage in side and ea windows. Although polyca~bonate offes an oppotunity to educe weight, it suffes fom a lowe esistance to scatching, less sound dampening, and is less fogiving at impact than glass laminates. As the automobile geenhouse continues to gow, mateial enginees will be inceasingly challenged to develop stategies that potect the occupants and the vehicle inteio fom ulta-violet ays. In esponse to these challenges, the panel expects special coatings and intelayes to see inceased application in the coming decade. Many of these intelayes and coatings ae eithe cuently, o will soon be, offeed on highe-piced luxuy vehicles. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 153

166 MAT-44. Fo the following Noth Ameican-poduced passenge ca and light tuck bake components, please indicate what pecentage is likely to be made fom the listed mateials cuently, and by 22 and 27. Please total each component to 1 pecent. Leave blank any components with which you ae not familia. Dum Aluminum Cast ion MMC Othe esponses: Dum: Component Mateial Dum Bake Backing Aluminum Aluminum Matix Composites Plastic Steel Rotos Aluminum Cast ion Calipe Housings Aluminum Nodula ion Plastic Calipes Aluminum Aluminum Matix Composites Nodula Ion Pistons Aluminum Aluminum Matix Composites Metal Matix Composites Plastic Steel MMC on EVl : Cuent estimate, 1%; 22, 1%; 2Q7, 5% Median Response Cuent Est % 1 % 1 % 1 5% 95 % 1 % % 89 8% 5% 95 13% 88 % 95 4% 87 5% 9 2 1% 8 15% 85 45% 55 2% % 3 7 lntequatile Range Cuent Est % % % % 911-1% % % % 12 58/94 215% 95/ % % % % % % % % % O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

167 Dum bake: Steel metal to metal laminate: Cuent estimate, 4%; 22, 55%; 27, 8% Steel: Cuent estimate, %; 22, 5%; 27, 1% Rotos: Aluminum matix composites: Cuent estimate, %; 22, 5%; 27, % Aluminum/ceamic: Cuent estimate, %; 22, %; 27, 15% MMC: Cuent estimate, %; 22, I %; 27, 3% Calipes: AI-MMC on AL with steel inset: Cuent estimate, 1%; 22, 1%; 27, 2% Aluminumlceamic: Cuent estimate, %; 22, %; 27, 5% Pistons: MMC: Cuent estimate, %, 22; 2%, 27; 1% Phenolic, MMC: Cuent estimate, 15%; 22, 35%; 27, 7% Phenolics: Cuent estimate, 1%; 22, 15%; 27, 15% Selected edited comments Aluminum MMC will be used fo oto and calipe housings fo thei weight saving capability and highe stiffness. Aluminum otos will be widely used in the EVs to save weight. Stainless steel otos, which ae standad mateial in motocycles, will also be used fo weight eduction. Bakes ae too much of a safety item to mix diffeent metals and expeiment with new mateials. Fuel economy inducement fo lighte weight mateials, plus the need to lowe the cuent $851ca waanty cost on an aveage vehicle, will stimulate edesign aound new mateials. Inteest in economical solutions to mitigate the pesistent poblems of waanty cost and custome dissatisfaction emains high. Thus OEM and Tie 1 supplies of bake components ae eceptive to new appoaches, the latte especially if waanty is tansfeed to them. Discussion Panelists foecast that aluminum usage will incease significantly fo calipe housings. The panel foecasts a less significant incease in aluminum fo the othe listed bake components. The wide intequatile anges fo the 27 foecast of dum bake backings, calipe housings, calipes, and pistons suggest significant uncetainty with egad to futue mateial applications fo the listed mateials, o diffeing stategies among the manufactues. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was significantly changed fo Delphi IX and theefoe compaison with pevious suveys is not possible. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

168 Stategic consideations The application of aluminum o othe altenative lightweight mateials fo the listed components would dastically educe oveall vehicle weight. These lightweight mateials will also add cost. Howeve, at the systems level the highe mateial cost may be offset by othe factos such as component consolidation o inceased pefomance. In each of the listed components, aluminum is foecast to see inceased application. The components listed in MAT-42 and MAT-44 pesent significant oppotunity fo weight eduction. In the event that CAFE equiements ae inceased, it is highly likely that these components would apidly move towad highe penetation ates fo the lightweight mateials. 156 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

169 MAT-45. Appoximately 4 pecent* of 1996 Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and 71 pecent of light tucks had styled wheels. What pecentage of styled wheels will be made fom each of the following mateials in 22 anld 273 Styled Wheel Mateials Passenge Ca Aluminum Hybid (steel and plastic) Magnesium Plastics Steel Light Tuck Aluminum Hybid (steel and plastic) Magnesium Plastics Steel Est. 1996* 94.9% % 27.6 Median Response lntequa~tile Range * Souce: Wad's Automotive Repots, Feb. 17, and Ma. 3, Rates fo 1996 ae based on poduction in U.S., Canada, and Mexico fo the U.S. maket. Selected edited comments Consume studies have indicated that customes ae geneally unawae of what wheels ae made of. Futhe, they ae vey paticula about how they look, hence the tend to styled wheels. The added cost epesented by cast aluminum wheels is yet anothe facto in sticke cost ceep. A moe duable steel wheel, with appopiately styled high quality wheel coves will help hold down costs while poviding consumes with the look they want. a High costs will dive wheels back to steel. Magnesium wheels ae aleady poven by the application of magnesium in Japan; this will be the same in the United States. Wheels ae a good application fo big weight eduction. Uetch, fomely Motowheel/Goodyea, poduces a polycast-styled wheel-uethane molded on a steel o aluminum im then painted to simulate cast aluminum % % Discussion Panelists foecast aluminum wheels to account fo 92 pecent of styled wheels fo passenge cas and 85 pecent of styled wheels fo light tucks by 27. Steel will account fo the emainde of the styled wheels. Magnesium and plastic ae not expected to see any application in the coming decade, yet the intequatile anges fo both mateials suggest some potential fo initial application % 4 76% % 2 85% % % Q Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 157

170 Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with pevious Delphi panels. Stategic consideations Styled wheels continue to be a high-demand option fo both passenge cas and light tucks in the coming decade. The mateials panel expects aluminum to be inceasingly the dominant mateial fo styled wheels. Aluminum wheels, while suffeing fom a cost disadvantage compaed to styled steel wheels, offe styling and appeaance attibutes. Aluminum wheels also pesent weight savings potential while meeting duability and safety equiements. The comment egading the styled steel wheel with a uethane-molded cove meits special mention. This application technology pesents an inteesting option fo designes and should be closely watched. The wheel is cuently offeed on at least one luxuy ca. This application will povide an inteesting test to gauge consume acceptance and duability of the poduct. The panel foecasts little o no usage of plastic o magnesium fo oiginal equipment styled wheels in the coming decade. Although both mateials pesent oppotunity fo weight eduction, acceptance will be slow due to cost and safety concens. Baing unfoeseen advances, neithe mateial will gain significant penetation in the coming decade. 158 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

171 MAT-46. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-poduced passenge cas and light tucks utilize the following bondingljoining technologies in body assembly cuently and will in 27? BondinglJoining Technologies Acylics Body panels Body einfocement Glass Hem flanges Onamentation Stuctual Epoxies Body panels Body einfocements Hem flanges Stuctual Foam Tape Exteio tim Inteio tim Uethanes Body panels Hems Stationay glass Stuctual Median Response Cuently 27 % % % 18 23% % I 25% % 5 2% lntequatile Range Cuently 27 14% OR 13 9/ % / % % % % % % Selected edited comments Epoxies ae fo body panels and body einfocements whee high tempeatue aind igidity ae needed. Acylicslfoams ae fo both inne and oute onamentation, including tail lamps. Uethanes ae pimaily fo glasses. Discussion Panelists foecast a slight incease in the listed bondingljoining technologies fo body component bonding in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manuf'actues and supplies. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 159

172 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX foecast diffes in seveal aeas fom pevious foecasts. Only a long-tem foecast was asked fo Delphi IX, so compaisons can only be made to pevious long-tem foecasts. The Delphi IX panel foecasts highe application of acylic fo hem-flanges, and a lowe foecasted use of acylics fo onamentation than the 1996 Delphi Vlll panel. The Delphi IX foecasts highe penetation ates fo all listed epoxy applications and inteio applications of foam tape. Body einfocement Body panels Body einfocements Hem flanges Stuctual Foam Tape Exteio tim Inteio tim Uethanes Body panels Hems Stationay glass Stuctual 15% % 4 2% nla nla I 2 3% % 3 15% nla nla 15 25% % 5 2% Stategic consideations It appeas that manufactues will not significantly incease usage of many bonding and joining techniques in the coming decade, although gowth in some key aeas is foecast. Of the listed mateials, only epoxies ae foecasted to see even modeately inceased penetation fo the listed components. The usage of adhesives to join body panels duing assembly may be limited, depending on the ole nonmetallic ecycling has in the mateial-selection pocess. Ease of disassembly is citical to a successful ecycling stategy. It is possible that bondingljoining 16 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

173 technologies may be limited to applications whee the bonding and substate mateials ae compatible-thus, bette enabling ecyclability. Epoxy adhesives ae expected to be the most common mateial fo hem-flan!ge and bodyeinfocement bonding applications. Epoxy adhesives delive excellent mechanical stength popeties, especially at cuent paint oven tempeatues. The panel foecasts uethane adhesives to be the sole mateial fo stationay glass applications. This is lagely due to uethanes' ease of pocessing and ability to successfully adhee to fedeal safety standads while meeting cost constaints. Acylic adhesives and foam tape ae expected to be used fo onamentation and exteio applications, espectively. These mateials have poven to be the lowest cost while still meeting the equiements. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 161

174 MAT-47. What pecentage of Noth Ameican-passenge ca and light tuck manufactuing facilities will use the following paint systems in 22 and 271 Paint Systems UNDERCOAT Electocoat Cuent technology Lead-fee Pime suface None Solvent-bone Powde Watebone TOPCOAT (Base coatlclea coat) Base coat Solvent- bone Watebone Clea coat Conventional solvent melamine Solvent-bone etch esistance Powde Wate-bone Othe esponse: 27: 1 % molded in colo Est. 1994* 1% 15% 8 5 9% 1 35% 65 Median 22 95% 8 1% % 25 25% 75 Response 27 4% 7 1% % 5 15% 8 5 lntequatile % % 69/ % % Range % % % % Souce: Automotive Manufactue estimate Selected edited comments Ai pollution equiements continue to push watebone base coats. Lead seems destined fo elimination, solvents fo eduction. Pepaint and pepimed steel and aluminum in coil will make an impact on paint opeations, especially in new plants. Thee will be little to no impact on existing facilities. The big eason is paint quality impovement and concentation of VOC in the coil-coate paint facility. Recent effots to upgade powde-coating technologies may esult in the powde top coatlpowde-clea-coat system. The Euopeans have moved the date of thei poposed ban on lead to Januay 1,23. The lead-fee question is totally in the hands of the Euopeans-if thei poposal to ban Pb by Januay 22 is appoved, all electocoat will be lead-fee in 22 and 27. Othewise, thee will pobably be some split between lead-fee and the cuent electocoat, because of the highe costs of the Pb-fee system 162 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

175 Use of pepimed poducts fo selected vehicles will gain attention as EPA pessues incease. A coil-coated poduct (steel o aluminum) would contain VOCs in one location (the coil coate) instead of many assembly plants. Watebone will steadily incease its shae in evey categoy. Lead-fee electocoat will be mandated befoe 27. Discussion The panelists foecast inceased usage of lead fee electocoat, powde and watebone pime sufaces, and watebone base coats, and powde clea-coat technology, in the coming decade. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys I- - Paint Systems UNDERCOAT Electocoat Cuent technology Lead-fee Pime suface None Solvent-bone Powde Watebone TOPCOAT Base coatlclea coat Base coat Solvent- bone Wate-bone Clea coat Conventional solvent melamine Solvent-bone etch esistance Powde Watebone 1 Shot-tem I Long-tem I 9% 1 4% nla 2% 6% 3 9% 1 1% nla 3% 2% 7 23 Delphi VII 25 Delphi Vlll nla 6% 27 Delphi IX -- 4% 7 1% O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 163

176 In geneal the 1998 Delphi panel foecasts a slowe tansition to the moe envionmentally fiendly paint technologies than did the 1994 Delphi VII o 1996 Delphi Vlll panels. The table shows the shot- and long-tem foecast fom the thee Delphi suveys. Stategic consideations Aibone chemicals o volatile oganic compounds have been a significant bypoduct of taditional automotive paint systems. In the past 2 yeas, the industy has significantly educed paint shop emissions of VOC. Howeve, futhe eduction will be equied. The emoval of lead fom the electocoat pocess is anothe impotant envionmental challenge fo the industy. The panel foecasts continued implementation of lead-fee electocoat systems, in lage pat due to sticte govenment egulation. The convesion of a paint shop is an expensive activity. A new paint shop can cost seveal hunded million dollas and consideable downtime. The convesion of facilities must be coodinated with the majo model changes at each facility. Theefoe the convesion of all facilities will likely take many yeas. The combination of cost and coodination with vehicle pogams may be a eason the Delphi IX foecast is somewhat moe consevative than pevious foecasts. The convesion to moe envionmentally-acceptable paint systems must not have a negative effect on consume satisfaction. Solvent-bone paint systems will decease makedly as watebone and powdeed paint systems ae implemented. Convesion to lead-fee electocoats will likely equie govenment egulation, since they ae moe costly when compaed to cuent technology. The USCAR Low Emission Paint Consotium (LEPC) continues to eseach envionmentallysound paint systems. The LEPC is cuently concentating much of its effot on the development of powdeed paint systems. This "pove-out" facility will likely be a majo step in defining futue powdeed paint systems, and the activity should be closely monitoed by all automotive industy paticipants O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

177 MAT-48. What ae you expectations of oven tempeatue cuently and fo 27 fo the following paint systems. I Oven Tempeatue I 1 1 Median Response 1 lntequatile Range 1 Paint Systems Electocoat Topcoat Selected edited comments Cuent Estimate 36 F 275 Effects of lead-fee electocoat on the baking tempeatue is not clea, but I assume no big changes. I am assuming paint systems stay in the assembly plant and ae not eplaced by pecoated poduct. I pesume on-line painted mateials, not off-line painted aticles such as fascia. Some two package, low-bake systems will likely be used in the futue, as will powde pime and powde clea coating. But solvent and wate-based coatings will continue to dominate. I see no dastic changes in E-coat tempeatue F 263 Cuent Estimate F In 27, bake tempeatue can be loweed fo electocoat but seales and bake-hadening steel equie highe bakes. Lowe bake tempeatue fo topcoats will cost moe in $/gallon so lowe temps ae unlikely. It's inteesting to note the infusion of both bake-hadened steel and aluminum into body constuction. The eduction of oven tempeatue will esult fom inceased cost pessue. Once the oven tempeatues ae educed, new mateials (such as plastics) will begin to eplace steel and othe metals fo panels. This will educe oven tempeatues futhe, because of molded-in colo and the lack of the need fo paint altogethe (fo low-line cas). Topcoat tempeatues will ise only if powde cleacoats become common. Discussion The panel foecasts paint oven tempeatues fo electocoat and topcoat applications will decease 1 degees and 12 degees (F) espectively by 27. Manufactuelsupplie compaison Thee is no statistically significant diffeence in esponses between manufactues and supplies. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was changed significantly fo the 1996 Delphi VIII. Theefoe, conpaison with suveys pio to Delphi Vlll ae not possible. The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in ageement with the O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed. 165

178 Delphi Vlll panel. Thei cuent estimate and long-tem foecasts ae identical. Howeve, the Delphi IX panel cuent estimate (275'~) and thei long-tem foecast (26'~) ae significantly highe than the Delphi Vlll cuent estimate (26'~) and long-tem foecast (25'~). Stategic consideations A slight decease in oven tempeatues in the next decade would be an impotant pat of a continuing enegy-consevation stategy, and would maginally educe costs. Howeve, it is expected that inceased volatile oganic-compound emission standads will incease the use of powdeed and watebone coatings. Such a move may, in fact, foce the need to incease oven tempeatues. Thee ae seveal mateials issues that ae involved in detemining the electocoat and topcoat oven tempeatue. Plastics-mateials that ae cental to the oven tempeatue issue--ae cuently engineeed to meet the demands of topcoat ovens now in use. Any significant change in oven tempeatue would geatly affect the pefomance of these mateials. If, as the panelists foecast, topcoat oven tempeatue deceases in the coming decade, plastics may expeience less shinkage and wapage, which may possibly allow fo a bette fit. Howeve, if powdeed and watebone paint systems become commonplace, the highe tempeatues equied could ceate challenges fo plastics. 166 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

179 MAT-49. Please indicate how mateials will influence the impovement of futue custome satisfaction ove the next 1 yeas fo body and chassis. RESPONSES BODY: EXTERIOR Quality/eliabilitylduability: A compomise to pemit compliance with govenment egulations may cause futue custome satisfaction to be eoded athe than enhanced. A negative influence will pobably pevail until lage quantities of aluminum ae intoduced, which coode less. Bette coosion esistance and plastics will make duability an issue ove metals because of inceased duability. Bette fit-up and duability will esult fom cuent initiatives. Coosion-esistant steels and acid-toleant clea coat will geatly impove custome satisfaction. Dent-esistant steels will be less pone to damage fom paking lots, belt buckles, etc. Each attibute will impove, especially duability. Fit, dit esistance will impove. Highe stength panels of aluminum will impove aleady good dent esistance. I expect bette weatheability, chipping and scatch-esistant paints. lmpoved chip esistance will eliminate coosion as an issue at any level. lmpoved coosion esistance (3) lmpoved cosmetic duability fom the adoption of aluminum lmpoved dent-/scatch-esistance Ma- and abasion-esistant TPO will become commonly used, as will damage-esistant body panels. Moe duable finishes and paints Moe scatch and dent esistance and extended coosion esistance Noth Ameican automakes have one vey high standad fo steel and a less citical standad fo othe mateials. The lowe quality appeaance of the competing mateials does not go unnoticed by the consume. Pobably not much change within 1 yeas, but I believe significant changes will be unde way in tems of utilizing altenative mateials fo bodies that will be stating poduction in 1 yeas. The esult of these pogams will be impovement in all these dimensions. (The 1-yea estimate could be low o high in cetain oveseas oppotunities.) Recycled mateials will meet function in the same fashion as vigin mateials. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 167

180 * Repaiability (cost) The inheent coosion esistance of aluminum impoves duability. The suface must be moe glossy and less susceptible to dings and dents. Appeaance: A eduction of coosion will impove custome satisfaction. Aluminum panels maintain good appeaance. Appeaance can be maintained at cuent levels. Body colo will be even bette. Coatings-new colos, iidescence. LEDs may offe new ea lamp displays Etch-esistant clea coats that will make vehicles look bette longe High-gloss paints, thee-coat peal appeaance, but not at the expense of manufactuing Highly efficient einfocements will become available to stiffen plastics without detacting fom suface quality. lmpoved light stability of plastics will allow inceased use of unpainted pats. lmpoved paint systems will help long-tem appeaance. Lightweight mateials may slightly degade suface appeaance. Long-life high glossy finishes Maintain gloss Moe flexible design and lowe tooling cost will be possible with the use of plastic fo exteio body panels. Moe styled wheels Much wide application of clea coat and thicke coating laye will assue impoved appeaance. No colo fade, bette paint chip esistance and esistance to acid ain will all be sought. Noth Ameican automakes have one vey high standad fo steel and a less citical standad fo othe mateials. The lowe quality appeaance of the competing mateials does not go unnoticed by the consume. Pepimed and pepainted steel and aluminum have smoothe (no oange peel o cateing) finishes. Adhesive bonding will eliminate spot weld cates. Recycled mateials will meet function in the same fashion as vigin mateials The evolution of paint systems to "hide" finishing shotcomings of new candidate mateials Safety Bette fame design and mateials Compliance with fontal- and side-impact egulations does not equie new mateials (fo body exteio). Wide-angle oute mio will impove visibility. 168 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

181 Continued use of metal panels will avoid isks fom the shatteing of composite panels. Exteio cush of "systems" will impove enegy absoption. lmpoved cashwothiness though FEA modeling and subsequent mateial chaac:teizations Inceased cashwothiness Mateials won't be used if safety is compomised. Moe igoous safety equiements will favo steel. Plastic mateials will help meet the new FMVSS egulations and impove the cost-effectiveness of new designs. Recycled mateials will meet function in the same fashion as vigin mateials. Thee is no question that consumes equate steel with safe vehicles, and also with pesonal safety. Wate-epellent glass coatings, multifunctional glazing fo safety and secuity Othe (please specifyl Lighte swing panels offe much impoved custome satisfaction. Multifunctional antenna systems to impove cost and pefomance, educe waanty Must educe the cost of epai Reduced weight of lift gates, etc., will be appeciated by both designes and customes. BODY: INTERIOR Quality/eliability/duability: A tend towad one mateial fo plastic-tim components will help in ecycling. Geat impovement will be due to inceased use and application of plastics in integated stuctual modules such as the integated stuctual instument panels. High duabilityligidity fom well-designed aluminum body stuctues High-stength steels with defined and consistent popeties and advanced welding (especially lase) I don't think any significant changes of mateials ae likely; theefoe, qualityleliabilitylduability will be the main aea of focus. Impove weatheability (esist fading, cacking, etc.) lmpoved UV potection due to the use of sola glass lmpoved UV esistance lmpoved wea esistance and sola potection O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 169

182 It will have a negative influence until the effect of 1-yea consume expeiences is tabulated. Howeve, integated-cost magnesium and plastic components should lead to impoved quality and a educed numbe of pats. Ma- and abasion-esistant TPO will be widely used as the dominant fist suface mateial in inteios. Recycled mateials will meet function in same fashion as vigin mateials. Fit and finish: Ability to maintain close toleances will help. Bette dimensional stabilitylcontol Bette fit and finish will esult in a moe unifom look and will impove squeak between pats. Big Thee will meet Japanese levels of fit and finish. Combat squeak and attle though mateials development and design. Fa fewe squeaks and attles will esult when one-piece castings eplace multiple pat assembly. Fit and finish will be impoved due to net-shape, fabicated-altenative, mateial-based designs that eliminate hundeds of pieces and assembly opeations. lmpoved CLTE will incease fit. lmpoved FE modeling of pat fomingldie design and stamping to give impoved fit and finish Inceased use of plastics will allow designes to consolidate moe pats thus impoving fit. Magnesium and plastic-integated stuctue can allow fo econfiguation of seating pattens. Must fit bette with all pieces Nea net shape manufactued metals, including die cast aluminum and magnesium, thixocast aluminum, and metal injection molding Pats consolidation will cetainly impove fit and finish. Plastic coss-ca beams will aid fit and finish. Plastics will be used in lage consolidated stuctues fo instument panels, doos, and seats. This consolidation will significantly impove fit. Recycled mateials will meet function in the same fashion as vigin mateials. Tighte gaps and component consolidation. Egonomics: Adoption of adhesive bonding will impove NVH chaacteistics and educe squeaks and attles. Design though pat consolidation made possible with new plastic mateials will assist egonomic designs. 17 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

183 lmpoved satisfaction would be expected, due to the fact that some altenative nateials such as themoplastics may be fabicated net shapes, thus making impoved egonomics costeffective. Lightweight seat stuctues may allow fo econfiguation of seating load-caying pattens. Moe comfotable seats (especially foam technology and design) * Plastic coss-ca beams allowing cockpit build Recycled mateials will meet function in same fashion as vigin mateials. Softe feel of mateials o mateial coatings ove intenal hadwae * Softe touch buttons and dials We need to develop mateials fo bette egess and ingess. Safety: Have we maxed out? Will we expect moe individual accountability? High-stength steels with defined and consistent popeties will be impotant; advanced welding; especially lase will incease safety. Enegy absobing foam fo seats, headlines, and pillas ae expected. If we have to move away fom zinc plate and dichomate to paint on hadened siteel hadwae pats, thee should be fewe incidences of hydogen embittlement failues. lmpoved potection though stuctual design and aibaglothe technologies (2) Inceased use of plastics in occupant safety aeas such as instument panels will impove safety since they can eliminate had points caused by too-stiff taditional mateials, and the "backetology" that goes with taditional mateials-based designs. Magnesium IPS has impoved popeties vs. steel coss-ca beams. Moe passive safety Moe than adequate cash enegy absoption Moe use of enegy absobing mateials Passenge potection Recycled mateials will meet function in same fashion as vigin mateials, i.e., no diffeence in mateials Safety cannot be compomised. Smat aibag system both fo fontal and side impact will have optimized bag volume and speed of deployment. Togethe with the use of softe sufaces, these changes will educe unexpected injuies. Use of foams to impove occupant potection Othe (please specify): Reduced weight will impove vehicle handling and diveability. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 171

184 CHASSIS Quality/eliability/duability: Bette stength-to-weight atio Designs will continue to impove once we lean how to design with lightweight mateials. Develop coatings fo bake otos to pevent ginding noise; impoved coosion coatings to impove cosmetic appeaance Each attibute will impove. lmpoved coating to potect against coosion; mateials will be developed to give longe life at a lowe cost lmpoved coosion esistance in electical systems will impove vehicle eliability. lmpoved hybid designs using steel, plastics, and bonding technology will impact the design solution. Moving fom cast ion to aluminum fo many components will educe unsightly ed ust. Potection must last 1 yeas to justify cost inceases. Quality is eliability and duability-theefoe they must continue to impove to effect quality. Recycled mateials will meet function in same fashion as vigin mateials. Noise/vibation/hashness: Bette stuctue leads to impoved NVH. Look fo a 2Hz ca standad. m lmpoved busing mateials will maintain NVH pefomance longe. lmpoved hybid designs using steel, plastics, and bonding technology will impact the design solution. lmpoved oto and fiction mateials to educe bake noise and oughness Inceased use of plastics will help damp out noise and vibation. Laminated metal, polyvinyl o metal-to-metal, will incease sound deadening capability. Laminated side glass will educe inteio noise levels by 5 db. Moe sound absoption mateials (i.e., foam) will be incopoated into chassislfame. Need to wok to educe wind noise. Noise and vibation must continue to impove; though hashness might be compomised. NVH will impove due to lighte weight and educed noise of nonfeous metals. Use of noise dampening foams in pillas to educe noise Vehicles will become vey quiet C3 Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

185 Pefomance: Deceased mass, bette handling, moe efficient engines at no loss in hosepowe Handling will definitely impove with the use of lightweight mateials. Lighte weight-if consume willing to pay Mateials will have a low influence on pefomance. Reduced weight will help to impove pefomance as well as mileage. Tailo-welded blanks will decease weight and theefoe impove pefomance. We will see stong gains in handling due to mateial advances. Safety: Moe sophisticated fame designlmateials Safety can not be compomised. Discussion The panel pesents a divese list of ways mateials will influence custome satisfaction in the coming decade. Coosion potection and inceased duability of paint ae the most fequently noted advances fo body exteios. Panelists also expect impoved fade esistance and bette fit and finish fo inteio components. Manufactuelsupplie compaison This compaison is not made fo open-ended questions. Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys This question was fist asked in the pesent fom in the 1994 Delphi VII. The Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with the pevious two foecasts. Stategic consideations Panelists foecast continued mateial developments to impove quality, eliability, duability, and othe pefomance equiements. In many instances, the technologies ae available to addess many of the mentioned challenges. Howeve, cost pevents many of these technologies fom being implemented. Numeous ideas ae pesented by the panelists, and we uge the eade to closely eview the esponses fo new and innovative stategies Panelists' esponses indicate that impovements in paints will be citical to the development of bette chip and ma potection. Paint and clea coat seve as the fist line of defense fo any successful coosion potection stategy. The ability to bette pevent damage to the paint will be an impotant element to impoved appeaance and subsequent coosion potection. Envionmental egulation is leading the industy to adically change the method in which vehicles ae painted (MAT-47). The convesion to powde and watebone paints will have ceated a new set of issues and challenges. The USCAR Low Emissions Paint Consotium is woking to O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 173

186 ovecome these challenges. Ealy esults suggest that powdeed paints will likely be moe duable, and will theefoe povide bette chip and ma esistance. - - O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights esewed.

187 . I MAT-5. The ecyclability of automotive mateials and elated envionmental concens will be significant issues confonting the entie industy in thie upcoming decade. With egad to ecycling, what factos do you think ae o will become ecycling baies to the utilization of mateials within the listed categoies? Scale: 1 = most im~otant 3 = somewhat im~otant 5 = least im~otant Potential Recycling Baies Mean Rating I Alloy content/contamination Automated pocessinglsepaation of mateials, e.g., density gadient Dismantlingldisassembly Ease of mateials sepaation Uneinfoced Themoplastics PlasticslPolymes Reinfoced Themoplastics Economics of eclamation1 1.3 ecycling pocess Enegy equied fo ecovey Enegy equied to pocess aw mateial Envionmentally safe disposal ' Industial envionment/ health issues Labelinglidentification Lack of design fo disassembly Themosets --- I Aluminum Non-Feous metals Feous metals I Lack of labo skills fo pats / disassembly Landfill availability and cost 2.8 Limited maketsluses fo 2.3 ecommended pats and mateials Recycling infastuctue/logistics Scap value Selected edited comments "Automated pocessinglsepaation of mateials, e.g., density gadient" should include magnetic sepaation, as this is now commonly used and much moe effective than the density technique. Plastics ae not being ecycled at the end of vehicle life in Noth Ameica. Plastics; will not likely be cost-feasible in the next 2 yeas unless fedeally subsidized. Disassembly ill likely only occu in the U.S. if mandated, if govenment subsidized, o if stiff penalties dive the business cost. Disassembly in Euope is occuing due to govenment subsidies and as a way to get jobs fo the Easten Block county wokfoce ;:; I ;:; I I I I O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 175

188 "Economics of eclamation/ecycling pocess": This is a high baie fo slass ecycling. Enegy ecovey emains an economically viable disposition of plastics. Thee is 5 pecent moe landfill space available now vs. the mid 198s. Plastics face vey high baies because pice of the ecoveed o eclaimed mateials cannot compete with oiginal mateials (vigin mateial) so they have to be sent back to OEMs to be eused o ecycled as an enegy souce. Recycling must be economical to have staying powe. Infastuctue is key. As they find additional ways to make money, moe poducts will be ecycled. The OEMs1 job is to povide pull by showing whee ecycled mateials can be used with no engineeing isk and at a cost savings. Recycling steel fom scapped autos has been a fo-pofit business since the invention of the automobile. Contay to claims by the aluminum industy, inceasing the aluminum content of cas will not incease thei ecycling ate (ove 97 pecent in 1996). Any ecycling plan that elies on disassembly will not be cost-effective. Cas have to be ecycled the same way they ae built--on a mass basis. A shedde can ecycle an automotive hulk in about 3 seconds. It takes human beings about 3 minutes to emove most of the nonfeous components fom a hulk. Stuctual aluminum castings ae diffeent fom cast aluminum and aluminum sheets. Discussion Panelists see no significant baies to ecycling feous and nonfeous metals. Howeve, with egad to plastics, the panelists view economics, ease of mateial sepaation, infastuctue, and value of eclaimed mateial as significant challenges. Manufactu elsupplie compaison The manufactues and supplies ae in geneal ageement. Howeve, thee ae five aeas whee thei answes ae statistically diffeent. Table I shows those aeas and mateials whee the manufactue and supplies have statistically diffeent answes. 176 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

189 Tend fom pevious Delphi suveys The 1998 Delphi IX panel is in geneal ageement with the 1996 Delphi Vlll paiel. Howeve, thee ae seveal aeas whee thei esponses diffe. Fo those baies and mateials whee they disagee, the Delphi IX panel consistently views the challenge as moe sevee. The table shows those aeas whee the two panels' esponses diffe. Mean Rating - Potential Recycling Baies Alloy contentlcontamination Automated pocessing1 sepaation of mateials, e.g., density gadient Dismantlingldisassembly Ease of mateials sepaation Enegy equied fo ecovey Limited maketsluses fo ecommended pats and mateials Recycling infastnctuellogistics Scap value PlasticslPolymets Uneinfoced Reinfoced Themoplastics Themoplastics I I I Themosets Aluminum - Nonfeous metals Coppe Zinc Feous Metals Stategic consideations Ove the past decade, the automotive industy has become inceasingly awae of the envionmental impact associated with the final disposition of automobiles. Pesently 75 pecent of each vehicle is ecycled. This is accomplished by the emoval of esalable fluids, pats, and metals. The emaining 25 pecent, compised mostly of automotive shedde esidue, goes to landfills. This inceased awaeness has come at a time when plastics usage in automobiles--an impotant component of automotive shedde esidue-has inceased significantly. The use of lightweight, but economically difficult to ecycle, plastics pesents an inteesting lifecycle case study. Plastics offe an oppotunity fo weight eduction and concomitait eduction in enegy used duing the opeational life of the vehicle. Yet, the disposition of plastics at the end of the vehicle's opeational life pesents envionmental concens that may patially offset the benefits of the educed enegy consumption. It is likely that industy will continue to develop nnoe complete and complex life cycle analysis stategies to esolve these issues. It is also likely that no impotant automotive mateials will be eliminated solely by life-cycle concens. Recycling is an issue that has eceived consideable attention-especially in Euope. Noth Ameican manufactues and supplies will continue to actively develop stategies that addess the envionmental and economic challenges pesented by the final disposition of the vehicile. O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved. 177

190 MAT-51. RESPONSES With efeence to the thee most significant baies indicated in you esponse to MATQO, please indicate you ecommendations on how these issues can be ectified. Baie: All the baies ae substantially outside the automotive industy's sphee of influence. Recommend: We must eact quickly when issues ae esolved o change. Baie: Alloy contentlcontamination Recommend: (1) All aluminum alloys should have an alloy identification on the pat, especially castings and fogings. (2) Effective disassembly design and alloy ba coding. Baie: Auto euselspecification of ecycled plastics Recommend: Must simplify specification pocess and insist that moldes use ecycled content. Baie: Automated sepaation Recommend: Had to do fo plastics that look the same and have vey simila densities. Baie: Bonding to ecyclable plastics Recommend: Commonality of plastic fomulations with end-use tacking. Baie: Disassembly of component pats Recommend: (1) Establishment of taining and an aftemaket netwok. (2) Design fo disassembly though educed mateial mix, theaded fastening, common fastene. (3) Design fo disassembly and labelinglcoding (this will not be easy). Baie: Economic Recommend: Ceate an infastuctue to suppot/pomote ecycling. Baie: Economic sepaation of themoplastic Recommend: (1) R&D, mateial selection based on sepaation (2) Have a vey limited SAEappoved list fo themoplastic selection. Baie: Economics of plastic ecycling, disassembly, lack of infastuctue Recommend: Recognize and cedit the value of enegy ecovey and the total life-cycle benefit of plastics ove metals in saving enegy. Baie: Economics of plastics ecycling Recommend: Give same value to postindustial and postconsume waste. Baie: Economics of eclamation Recommend: Develop steady mateials steam to encouage and justify investment in ecycling opeations. Baie: Economics of ecoveylecycling Recommend: Automakes have to develop a bette undestanding of the ecycling industy and its economic base. Geneally speaking, composites cost money to ecycle, and metals geneate money when they ae ecycled. In pat, this is because of the embodied enegy content. The highe the enegy input to poduce the mateial in the fist place, the highe its eclamation value. As a ule of thumb, theefoe, it is usually cheape to make metal by ecycling (using the embodied enegy content) and it is usually cheape to make a polyme fom vigin feedstock. Adding infastuctue and labo cost to ecove a mateial with maginal maket value will not esolve the poblem. The answe is to use less of the mateial, not moe. 178 O Copyight The Univesity of Michigan All ights eseved.

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