Tzvetan Spassov, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Fulbright Foreign Student Program Sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs Tzvetan Spassov, Ph.D. Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Iowa State University Hilo High School, 7 May, 2015

2 Fulbright Foreign Student Program Sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs Senator J. William Fulbright ( ) The Fulbright Scholarship Program sponsors U.S. and foreign participants for exchanges in sciences, business, public service, government and arts increasing mutual understanding between the people of the United States and the people of other countries. The Fulbright Program offers U.S. citizens and nationals of other countries grants for university lecturing, advanced research, graduate study and teaching in elementary and secondary schools. In the over 60-year of the program, nearly 318,000 Fulbright students, scholars and teachers, representing 155 countries have benefited from a Fulbright experience 2

3 Outline of the lecture Climate change Greenhouse gases Global and Regional effects of Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation strategies Global Climate change governance Further Research needs 3

4 What is the problem with the Climate? Fig. 1. The increase in greenhouse gases will trap in more heat and thus causing a rise in the average global temperature. The total global temperature increase from the 1850s through to March, 2015 is 0.85 C (1.53 F) and the rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. Climate system It is consisting of the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans, flora and fauna and is a balanced complex which is vital for the life on the planet! Climate is often defined as average weather and usually described as variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years. The Greenhouse effect During the day the Earth soaks up heat, and GHG act like a greenhouse trapping in the heat. Some of the heat is radiated back out into space, and if weren t for these gases the globe would freeze over during the night. The Greenhouse gases The atmosphere is composed of Nitrogen (78%) and Oxygen (21%) with water vapor, Argon, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Neon, Helium, Methane, Hydrogen, Nitrous Oxide and Ozone called Greenhouse gases 4 (GHG).

5 Where the greenhouse gases come from? Fig.2. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) Fig.3. Proportion of Scientists and Americans that say climate change is happening and human caused (2013) During the Industrial revolution (about 1750) humans began burning fossil fuels to drive steam engines and generate electricity. Burning fossil fuels pours out greenhouse gases as CO2, Methane and Nitrous dioxide at a life-threatening rate and causing global warming. At the beginning of the 20 th century the petrol became major fuel for transportation with annual global output about 150 million barrels, which is now extracted globally in just two days. The natural carbon cycle is disrupted and Earth s carbon sinks or places that carbon can be safely absorbed are either diminishing or saturated. Global economic growth is driving higher carbon dioxide emissions and we really must manage the tremendous amounts of carbon dioxide we are emitting. 5

6 Fig.4. U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) Measuring Climate Change There is no single instrument for measuring climate change. The range of instrumentation used to observe and measure climate is amazing: Temperature (Earth s surface, and sea surface temperature) - a primary indicator for climate change; Precipitation (rainfall, snowfall etc.) - indicator of relative climate variation and may include humidity or water balance; Biomass and vegetation patterns provide evidence of how ecosystems change to adapt to climate change; Sea Level measurements reflect changes in shoreline and ice coverage; Solar activity can influence climate, primarily through changes in the intensity of solar radiation. Volcanic Eruptions can alter climate due to the aerosols emitted; Chemical composition of air or water 6

7 Fig.5. Source: Emergency Events Database Extreme Climate Anomalies The increase of global temperatures caused a number of negative effects on Earth during the last decade: Regional Temperature Anomalies was the warmest recorded winter in Scandinavia and the coldest eastward from Turkey to China Extreme Storms In 2010 a line of severe storms tore through the Midwestern U.S. producing several damaging tornadoes Extreme Flooding In May, 2010 a storm system stagnated over the Lower Mississippi Valley, flooding thousands of homes and breaking more than 200 daily, monthly, and all-time precipitation records Extra tropical Cyclones Following several winter storms in February, 2010, a nor easter wreaked havoc along the Atlantic seaboard 7 leaving more than 500,000 with no shelter.

8 and more Anomalies Fig.6. Source: Extreme Droughts In 2010 about 8% of the U.S. was experiencing severe drought while the Big island of Hawaii was afflicted by 57 % of exceptional drought. Severe Wildfires In 2007 severe wildfires in southern California forced 950,000 residents to evacuate the area, resulting in the biggest evacuation in Californian history. In April, 2008 severe wildfires developed across much of the south-central United States. Extreme Heat Wave In May, 2010 an extreme heat wave was brought by the high pressure system over much of eastcentral North America breaking temperature records 8

9 Climate change as a regional issue Fig.7. A housing development in Cathedral City, near Palm Springs Fig. 8. Houseboats float in California s drought-lowered Oroville Lake. Climate change affects in California California: 164,000 square miles of mountains, farmland and coastline, home of more than 40 million people and the U.S. symbol of possibility: Hollywood, Silicon Valley, aerospace, agriculture and vineyards. But if temperatures continue to increase California might be in a state of a permanent drought by 2050 In March, 2015 the state announced unprecedented measures in respond to the long term predictions and the last 4 extremely droughty years Set Targets to curb agricultural and household water consumption by 25%. New Agricultural Program launched for replacement of 4,6 million sq. m of public green areas with droughttolerant plants It is now illegal for the restaurants to serve water to customers unless they have ordered it. 9

10 Our Carbon Footprints We all have a carbon footprint, which is a measure of the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted through the combustion of fossil fuels. This is directly related to the amount of natural resources consumed, and is increasingly used or referred to as a measure of anthropogenic impact on the environment. Even though there may have been a slight decrease in CO2 emissions as a result of the financial crisis, the problem is set to again expand exponentially. When considering climate change society we should think about the moral responsibility of various nations towards climate change, and does this vary between countries Global warming and extreme weather conditions may have calamitous consequences for the human rights of millions of people. What is your Carbon Footprint? You can check at: 10

11 World Carbon Footprints by countries Fig.9. Countries by carbon dioxide emissions in thousands of tones per annum, via the burning of fossil fuels (blue is the highest) Source: United Nations. 11

12 Climate change in the Global South? Disadvantaged nations in the Global South need attention to the negative impacts of climate change: Regions are highly populated and people have generally lower adaptive capacity. National governments are responsible for formulation and implementation of the adaptation plan, from local to the national level. Development agendas are driven by pre-existing problems such as poverty, malnutrition, food insecurity, access to drinking water, illiteracy, unemployment etc. Climate change phenomenon is still not properly understood Climate change impacts will exacerbate these preexisting problems. Fig.10/

13 Wildfires also influence the climate system. This is what scientists call a feedback! Climate change impacts will vary by region Environmental and National Security Combined with large-populations the risk of large scale wars or conflicts for natural resources is inevitable. Large-Scale Migration One of the significant effects of climate change on humans. Disease, Epidemics, and Malnutrition As temperatures rise this will increase smog-levels, infectious diseases, malnutrition and pandemics. Agricultural Failure and Diminishing Productivity Weather, water and soil-quality are still the primary determinants of crop-yield. Desertification, Water-Scarcity, and Deforestation Deforestation rates might increase as a result of forest fires, and aridification, contributing to worsening climate change, Warmer temperatures will affect the amount of water in rivers and streams depending on snow melting 13

14 World map of predicted Climate Change Impacts Fig.12. Source: com/climate-changemap.jpg 14

15 Who is most vulnerable to Climate Change? Climate change could threaten natural resources that support the local economy, as well as some goods, services, jobs and the livelihoods of those who depend upon them: Communities that developed around the production of different agricultural crops, such as corn, wheat, or cotton, depend on the climate to support their way of life. Impact people who live in areas that are vulnerable to coastal storms, drought, and sea level rise. Professions that are closely linked to weather and climate, such as outdoor tourism and agriculture, will likely be especially affected. Increase in heart problems, asthma and allergies from increasing air pollutants of ozone and fine particles enhanced by higher temperatures. Increases in infectious diseases transmitted by insects that require a warmer, wetter climate. Some native animals, fish and plants could disappear and may be replaced by other invasive or alien species. 15

16 Fig.13/14. Source: Climate Change Society What affect will climate change have on our society? We all watched the events of Hurricane Katrina. Now imagine the same event only 10 times worse, that is what the world could be facing if the trends in climate change continue. As the rate of climate change is now so fast we are struggling to adapt our philosophies, economics, and lifestyle to slow it down. We must alter the way we live or we will suffer staggering consequences. Dealing with climate change is difficult, as carbon emissions are at the very heart of our current global energy economy. Confronting global climate change will require greater will and greater global cooperation than has ever been called for before. Adaptation to reduce the risks from a changing climate is now starting to occur, but with a stronger focus on reacting to past events than on preparing for a changing future. 16

17 Mitigation, Adaptation or Suffering? We are basically going to do some of each The question is what the mix is going to be? Fig.15. Interconnections between Adaptation and Mitigation Climate mitigation is any action taken to permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life and property. Climate adaptation is the ability of natural or human systems to adapt to a new or changing environment, to take advantage of beneficial opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be. Successful adaptation and mitigation responses will depend: Effective governance (local, regional, global); Innovation and investments in research, environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods, behavioral and lifestyle choices; 17

18 Examples for Mitigation Strategies Fig.16/17. Source: Mann & Kump Dire Predictions (2008) Climate change involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social, and technological processes: Temperature will probably end-up higher as global emissions of GHG will continue rising into the foreseeable future as the undeveloped world continues industrializing. In business as usual scenarios nature resource consumption grows by 1.6 to 3 % per year. Emissions reductions from energy production and use, transport, buildings, industry and land use by 40 to 70 % by 2050 compared with 2010 and to near -zero by 2100; Emission reductions can also be achieved by combining electricity production from wind, solar, and biomass; Slowing deforestation and planting forests have stopped or even reversed the increase in emissions from land use. 18

19 Enhancing adaptive capacity Fig.18. Sustainable development The enhanced adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change and will further promote sustainable development through: reducing poverty; lowering inequities of resources and wealth among groups; improving education and information; improving infrastructure; improving institutional capacity and efficiency; improving food security promoting local indigenous practices, knowledge, and experiences Costs: $ billion per year between 2010 and 2050 (World Bank Study 'Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change ) 19

20 Investing in Research and Development Fig. 19. Source: Internet Further public and private investments in research and publically will provide innovations needed for better adaptation to changing climate: Improve projections of future climate conditions for time scales of seasons and more precise information about changes of average and extreme temperatures, precipitation, and related variables Evaluate the sensitivity of diverse natural and social systems to key direct and indirect climate change effects and their interactions Develop and extend the knowledge, management strategies and tools needed by all local, regional and global stakeholders to enhance the adaptive capacity of their systems to climate variability and extremes 20

21 Summary Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years Global economic growth is driving higher carbon dioxide emissions The major challenge to our global society is to figure out how to reduce our global dependence on carbon-emitting fuels The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and less suffering there will be. The enhanced adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change Public and private investments in research will help to better adapt to changing climate. 21

22 Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Fulbright Foreign Student Program Sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs Tzvetan Spassov