Energy for All Programme (E4A) Timor-Leste Baseline Assessment Report

Transcription

1 This project is funded by the European Union Energy for All Programme (E4A) Timor-Leste Baseline Assessment Report October 2011

2 Assessment and Report prepared by: William Baron Programme Manager Renewable Energy Mercy Corps Timor-Leste Survey conducted by: Mercy Corps Timor-Leste and Naroman Timor Foun (NTF) With support from: UNTL students and Alola Foundation For further information on the Assessment Report or E4A programme please contact William Baron: or Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

3 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary Background Methodology Baseline Assessment Results Household demographics Lighting Electricity other uses Cooking Fire and firewood Energy expenditure Lighting / Electricity demand Access to markets and finance Conclusions and Recommendations Solar Stoves Forestry Annex 1 Household Survey template Annex 2 Logical Framework for the Project Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

4 1. Executive Summary This report presents the findings of the baseline assessment for the Energy for All (E4A) programme, conducted in August/September The programme is a 36-month initiative funded by the European Commission running from May 2011 until April 2014, implemented by Mercy Corps with local NGO partner Naroman Timor Foun (NTF) in Ainaro, Manufahi and Dili districts of Timor-Leste. E4A aims to address the chronic problem of energy poverty that is prevalent throughout Timor-Leste. The overall objective of the programme is to alleviate energy poverty in rural and peri-urban Timor-Leste through the specific objective of facilitating access to alternative sources of energy and renewable sources of fuel in three rural and peri-urban districts of Timor-Leste through sustainable market-driven approaches. The purpose of the Baseline Assessment was to: i) Collect the baseline data against which programme outcomes and achievements will be measured; ii) Develop a clear understanding of the status and needs of targeted households to inform programme design and; iii) Obtain market system information that will also help to inform programme design. The survey consisted of two main parts: a comprehensive household survey conducted for 570 households in the target areas; and 34 focus group discussions and key informant interviews, conducted with women, village leadership and farmers. 1. Summary of Baseline Assessment Results Access to lighting Access to lighting: Households in E4A target areas currently depend largely on kerosene to meet their lighting needs; 70% of households rely on kerosene as their main source of energy for lighting. In the rural districts kerosene-dependency is higher still at 90% of households. Lighting uses: The activities for which lighting is most commonly used are eating dinner (98% of households), children doing homework (83%) and cooking (71%). Lighting for livelihood activities is also important, though mainly for women (12% of households use lighting for this activity). Kerosene Kerosene usage: Households tend to use several kerosene lamps each day (58% of households use 4 or more lamps), in part reflecting the poor light output of home-made kerosene lamps. Demand for lighting is high, with almost half of all kerosene-using households keeping them lit for 5 or more hours per day. Kerosene consumption and expenditure: Households on average consume 4.0 litres of kerosene per month. The high price of kerosene, in particular in remote areas, results in high expenditure on kerosene; average monthly household expenditure on kerosene is $9.93. The survey data also shows that: - Over 70% of households spend $1.50 or more per week on kerosene ($6.43 per month) - Over 50% of households spend $2.50 or more per week on kerosene ($10.71 per month) - Over 20% of households spend $3.00 or more per week on kerosene ($12.86 per month) Kerosene access: Over 60% of households reduce their kerosene consumption at times. The most common reason is unavailability of kerosene supply (40% of kerosene-using households). Problems with kerosene: Households overwhelmingly view kerosene as a problematic lighting source. 80% say that it gives a poor quality of light, 72% say that it causes unpleasant smoke, and 68% say they think it causes health problems for their family. Candles Candle usage: Candles are used extremely widely by target households (70% said they use candles at some time), but candles are viewed as a supplementary or back-up lighting source with less than 1% of households saying that candles are their main lighting source. Candle expenditure: Expenditure on candles is extremely high, at an average of $8.61 per month per household. This is significantly higher in peri-urban areas of Dili than in rural areas, reflecting higher incomes. Expenditure on candles cannot be considered a pure lighting expenditure that can be replaced Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

5 through alternative energy technologies, as candles are widely used on a daily basis for religious purposes. Solar Solar usage: Only 6% of households currently use solar as their main source of lighting, compared with 9% that own some form of solar lighting product. Solar ownership is roughly consistent across the three target districts. The most commonly used solar product is a solar panel with 2 bulbs (60% of solar owners). Source of solar: Households purchasing solar products, largely from stores in Dili, is the most common means of access (60% of households), though 28% of solar owners received their product from government. Knowledge of solar: There is a remarkable lack of knowledge about solar in target households (65% of households said they didn t know what solar is). Unsurprisingly, the number of households that know a shop selling solar is also extremely low at just 19% of households. Electricity for lighting (EDTL Electrisidade de Timor-Leste) EDTL usage: Among target communities, access to EDTL is only significant in Dili-district; in the target rural communities only 3.7% of households have access to EDTL. Even in Dili district, 38% of households do not currently have access to EDTL. EDTL supply: The majority of EDTL users in target areas (65%) have 24-hour electricity supply. Outside Dili district the average period of electricity supply is 5.2 hours per day. Households with EDTL on average experience 3.1 power cuts per week. EDTL expenditure: Large numbers of households in target areas pay nothing for their EDTL access (38% of all households). Electricity Other Uses Ownership of electrical appliances: Ownership of mobile phones is relatively high in target areas, at 70% of all households surveyed. Radio ownership is also significant (almost a third of all households), and in rural areas torch/flashlight ownership is also high (over 60% of households). Power for electrical appliances: In Dili district EDTL is the primary source of power for most appliances, except for torches which are mostly powered by batteries. In Ainaro and Manufahi households mostly have to charge their phones at neighbour s houses (76% of mobile-owners), and a significant number have to pay a small fee for this service (42% of mobile-owners). In rural areas households rely heavily on batteries for powering radios (92% of radio-owners) and torches (98% of owners). Expenditure on batteries: Expenditure on batteries is a further burden for households in target areas. On average, households spend $3.30 per month on batteries. Cooking Cooking practices: In the target districts, reliance on traditional open fires for cooking is almost total; in Ainaro and Manufahi districts an open fire is the main cooking method for 100% of households. In Dili district this is also the case for 91% of households, with 6% using firewood stoves and the remainder using kerosene, LPG or electric stoves. Cooking location: For 89% of households, cooking takes place mainly in outside cooking huts, though in Manufahi district almost a third of households cook outside. Cooking responsibility: The task of cooking in the target districts is largely the responsibility of women and girls. In over 50% of households cooking is done exclusively by women or mainly by women, while in 47% women and men were reported as both being equally responsible for cooking. In most households (60%) children also participate in cooking, though this is largely the responsibility of girls (47% of households). Cooking frequency and duration: Almost all households cook three times per day (92%), with the average household spending 3 hours and 35 minutes per day cooking. Average cooking time is Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

6 significantly less in Dili district than in rural areas; households in peri-urban Dili spend only 60% as much time cooking as those in Ainaro and Manufahi. Cooking efficiency: In general, there is very high knowledge and practice of cooking techniques to improve efficiency, though limited time sometimes restricts these practices (e.g. chopping food and firewood into small pieces). Women s perceptions of cooking practices: Women in focus group discussions expressed a range of frustrations and problems with their current cooking practices, which to a large extent related to the hugely time-consuming and tiring nature of their responsibilities. The discussions highlighted the huge burden on women in the Timorese home and the pressures this can bring, with potential negative impacts not just on their well-being but on the social well-being of the whole family unit. Use of firewood stoves: Use of firewood stoves is currently entirely constrained to Dili, where a low but significant 6% of households use these stoves as their main cooking source. Fire and Firewood Fire use: 99% of surveyed households use fire for cooking. Other important functions of fires are for heating the household (44% of households), heating water for washing (23%) and drying corn (20%). Problems with fire use: Perceptions of problems with using fires are widespread among women, and in particular relate to health problems caused by smoke from the fires; almost all women participating in focus group discussions said that they or their children had experienced problems with breathing or fevers that they attributed to too much time in the cooking areas. Fuel wood use: Firewood is the predominant type of fuel wood used in target areas; 100% of households use firewood as a fuel source, with only 1% saying they also use charcoal. Firewood consumption per household is 9.3kg per day, or 3.4 tonnes per year. Responsibility for firewood collection: Collection of firewood by the household is by far the most important means of sourcing, with only 8% of households not engaging in firewood collection. Within the household, the survey suggests that responsibility for firewood collection is shared relatively equally between members (62% of households said that firewood collection is undertaken equally by all households members). In Dili district however women and children are primarily responsible. Journeys for firewood collection: The time households currently spend collecting firewood is substantial. On average, households spend almost six hours per week collecting firewood, though this is considerably higher in Ainaro district at over eight hours. Difficulty collecting firewood: The majority of surveyed households (55%) think it was easier for them to collect firewood five years ago than it is today (whereas just 6% think it was harder five years ago). Perceptions of increasing difficulty were strongest in Dili district, and least evident in Manufahi district. Firewood purchases: Only 13% of households sometimes purchase firewood, and these are largely located in Dili district (where almost a third of households sometimes buy firewood). Source of firewood: There are significant differences between the districts in terms of the type of landownership from which households collect firewood. In Ainaro and Manufahi districts, lands with no clear ownership and community-owned land is widely used for firewood collection, whereas in Dili district households rely largely on household-owned private land. Energy Expenditure Expenditure on energy: Household expenditure on energy (kerosene, candles and batteries) is on average $14.3 per month per household, with expenditure slightly higher in Dili district at $15.1, and lowest in Manufahi district at $13.5 per household per month. Energy expenditure as a proportion of household income: For the rural districts, this represents a very high proportion of total household income, at 19.9% for Ainaro district and 18.2% for Manufahi district. In Dili district it is a lower proportion of household income at 8% on average. Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

7 Lighting/Electricity Demand Demand for bulbs: The majority of households (50.3%) want either three or four bulbs, while 38% want more than 5 bulbs. Demand for hours of lighting: 70% of households say they need lighting for 5 hours or more per day, and 88% said they would like to be able to charge a mobile phone. Access to markets and finance Frequency of visits to district locations: The Loja Enerjia Alternativa (district-based businesses) to be supported through the programme should be located in Ainaro Vila, Hatu-Udo Vila, Same Vila and Turiskai Vila, to ensure easy accessibility for almost all of the households in the target areas. In Dili district it is not expected that Loja Enerjia Alternativa will be necessary in the target sub-districts. Access to MFI loans: 91% of households in target areas have never received a loan from a microfinance institution. A significantly higher proportion of households have received loans from Moris Rasik (8% of all surveyed households) than from TRM (1%). Informal loans are more common than MFI loans, with 16% of households having received a loan from friends or family. 2. Conclusions and Recommendations The following conclusions and recommendations can be drawn from the baseline assessment outcomes presented above, in relation to the three areas of programme implementation: Solar; Stoves; and Forestry. Solar Programme impact - Solar The very high level of dependency on kerosene for lighting in target areas suggests improved access to solar lighting through the Mercy Corps programme has the potential to benefit large numbers of households. In rural areas in particular, current energy expenditure as a share of total household income is extremely high. The introduction of solar power is expected to greatly reduce energy expenditure, and therefore has the potential to have a very significant effect on reducing poverty levels for participating households. Push-factors to Solar The poor quality of light from kerosene and candles and the high level of expenditure associated with use of kerosene and candles for lighting are likely to be the two main factors motivating a shift to solar lighting. Households are very aware of the poor quality of light from kerosene but in the case of economic benefits of shifting to solar, significant awareness-raising will be needed (only 44% of households identified the high cost of kerosene as a problem even though this represents a high proportion of their income). Other problems with kerosene will also be important push-factors to alternative energy sources. Kerosene is an extremely dirty fuel, and households identified this as causing a number of problems including unpleasant smoke, dirt in the house and health problems. The practical benefits of solar are likely to be a significant appeal, and the programme should include these aspects in education and marketing campaigns. The lack of a reliable supply of kerosene was also a significant finding of the survey, and will be another push-factor. Obstacles to success Probably the biggest obstacle to success will be the low level of awareness about solar power observed in most of the target sucos. This finding emphasises the need for extensive awareness-raising at the community level, and a sustained marketing campaign that successfully reaches households even in the remotest communities. Enabling access for all community members with varying income and energy expenditure levels will also be a challenge. At present over 50% of households spend $10 per month or more on kerosene, and for Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

8 these households alternative energy loans and repayments should be feasible. For the very poorest households in the community, for example female-headed households, households where old people live alone, or those with large numbers of children, loan products may not be viable based on current expenditures. To overcome this, Mercy Corps should ensure that there are a range of products available, including simple high quality solar lanterns that are affordable for these households to purchase outright. Before the survey there was some expectation that the programme might encounter household reluctance to purchase solar due to households in some communities receiving solar-lighting systems for free from government or NGOs. The baseline assessment outcomes suggest this is not likely to be a significant problem. Firstly, the number of communities and households that have received solar for free are minimal. Secondly, in most communities there are already a handful of households that have purchased solar products of their own initiative, suggesting demand is there and people are not just waiting for government to meet their needs. Thirdly, feedback during the surveys suggests there is an extremely high level of interest in purchasing solar, even in areas of peri-urban Dili. Solar programme design Product selection light quality: Households require lighting for a range of tasks, including schoolwork (80% of households) and livelihood activities (12% of households) that involve detailed work and sharp focus light output, and cooking (81% of households use lighting for cooking), eating (98% of households) and general evening activities that do not require the same brightness. Product selection should take this range of needs into consideration, preferably including products that have more than one light output setting. Product selection number of lamps: The assessment indicates that 62% of households will have all their lighting needs met by solar panel systems with four or less lamps. Some households stated that they also wanted a lamp in their kitchen hut and cooking area, which is the main factor behind the 20% of households that want five lamps (the average number of rooms per household is 4.1 across the target areas). Product selection daily usage: The survey suggests that lighting should be available for a minimum of four hours per evening, and lighting for five or six hours would meet the ideal situation of 76% of households. The charging capacity of the panels and batteries to meet these needs must be taken into consideration when determining product selection. Product selection other uses: 70% of households in target areas own mobile phones, and over 30% own radios. Solar products selected through the programme should certainly have the capacity to charge mobile phones, and in selecting solar panels the capacity to power radios should be included as part of the range and will generate additional benefits for households in terms of savings on battery expenditure. Marketing and promotion: The lack of awareness of solar in target areas highlights the need for an extensive marketing campaign. The survey indicates that television advertising would not be effective as very few households in target areas own televisions, and those that do own them already have access to EDTL. Instead, a radio campaign has the capacity to reach large numbers, and SMS has the potential to raise basic awareness (for example about store locations) to the large numbers of mobile phone users. Most effective, however, are likely to be mobile product demonstrations and solar technology fairs, that generate enthusiasm for the products and word of mouth information flows. Loan products: Survey data on current kerosene expenditure suggests that household capacity-to-repay loans for renewable energy products has high potential. Over 50% of households spend over $10 per month on kerosene, suggesting that a $100 solar panel system could be repaid over a 12-month period, and likely over a shorter period given that there would likely also be some savings on candle expenditure. Nevertheless, MFI estimates of capacity-to-repay loans should not include expenditure on candles, as these serve religious purposes as well as being a lighting source, and candle costs would not necessarily be displaced. Programme timing rainy season: Mercy Corps should avoid launching the programme and sale of solar products in target areas during the heart of the rainy season. This carries the risk customers will find the products work less effectively than expected and are dissatisfied with performance, jeopardising the Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

9 Stoves credibility of the programme from the beginning. The programme should aim for Loja Enerjia Alternative (district businesses) to begin selling products around March, as the worst of the rains recede. This is particularly important for the timing of loan products, as ability to repay alternative energy loans using savings from kerosene may be at risk during the very worst rainy months; it is recommended that MFI loans in E4A target communities should also not be initiated before March. On the other hand, the programme should also take into consideration the times of year when marketing and promotion of solar products could be particularly beneficial. In particular, in Manufahi district between June and October households harvest coffee and income available for purchases is significant. In Ainaro district the corn harvesting season is in March/April and July/August, and though income from corn is far less significant than for coffee, households often sell small quantities. Programme impact - Stoves The scale of dependency on open fires in Timor-Leste suggests that the impact of a successful fuelefficient stove programme is likely to be huge. The assessment outcomes indicate that a successful stove programme will benefit women and girls in particular. Benefits for the household are likely to include: - A reduction in the very large amount of time spent cooking each day and greater ease of cooking, in particular benefiting women and girls; - Reduced exposure to smoke, and associated health problems; - Reduction in time spent collecting firewood, benefiting all household members; and - Improved harmony and well-being for the family unit. The impact on firewood consumption and harvesting is expected to be substantial. An anticipated efficiency saving of 40% will result in 1,360kg less firewood use per year for each stove-using household, reducing deforestation and the pressure on natural resources in target areas. Push-factors to Stoves The survey suggests there are multiple reasons that women will be motivated to shift to using fuel efficient stoves, but in particular the practical benefits are likely to be among the strongest push-factors: greater ease of cooking was highlighted by 91% of current stove users; 64% of stove owners said reduced smoke was a benefit of the stove, and 55% said the stove was safer than using an open fire. Other time-saving benefits will also be important, including less firewood use and associated chopping of firewood and firewood collection (though this latter is not considered a burden by women in Dili at least, as it is seen as a valuable social activity and welcome respite from household duties). The economic benefits of shifting to fuel-efficient stoves will likely be less important than the factors above, due to the very low number of households currently purchasing firewood. The health benefits of fuel-efficient stoves have the potential to be a major factor in persuading women to shift cooking practices, but such promotion needs to be accompanied by educational activities to improve understanding about the negative health implications of open fires and indoor smoke pollution. Working with institutions that have existing health networks to promote the health benefits of stoves, including Alola Foundation and SISCa volunteers through the Ministry of the Health, would likely have particular benefits in terms of outreach and take-up of stoves. Obstacles to success The biggest obstacle to persuading households to shift to fuel-efficient stoves in Timor-Leste is likely to be overcoming cultural attachment to traditional ways of cooking, in particular in rural areas. Based on baseline assessment outcomes, this is anticipated to be a significant but not prohibitive obstacle. Perceptions of problems with use of open fires are widespread, and in many communities women expressed interest in trying alternative ways of cooking. In Dili district in particular, households are expected to be open to improved cooking facilities in the form of stoves; 6% of households in Dili district already use fuel efficient stoves as their main source of cooking. Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

10 Secondary uses of open fires should not be a significant obstacle to stove take-up, with the potential exception of using smoke to dry corn. Using fires for heating water and heating the household is common, but fuel-efficient stoves should serve the same function even more efficiently. Using smoke to dry corn is only widespread in Ainaro district (39% of households), and the introduction of fuel-efficient stoves in Ainaro will need to take this function of fires into consideration. There is a complete lack of knowledge about fuel-efficient stoves in almost all target communities; even in Metinaro sub-district of Dili district, almost all women in the focus group discussions had never heard of such stoves. Concerted promotion and awareness-raising activities will be necessary to generate interest and widespread take-up of the technology. Stove programme design Stove product design: With less than 1% of households using charcoal, stove design should focus on firewood-burning stoves. In Dili there are also some informal producers of bio-briquettes, though supply is not consistent, so if it is possible to develop a design that can use both firewood and bio-briquettes this should also be explored. Stove design should also take account of secondary uses of fires, in particular use of smoke to dry corn in Ainaro. Stove product design and manufacturing process: The lack of financial benefits for most households switching to fuel-efficient stoves will likely limit willingness-to-pay, particularly in rural areas where household income is lowest. For this reason, stove design and manufacturing processes should be selected to ensure that the price of stoves at point-of-sale is kept to a minimum. Existing basic stoves sold in Dili are currently retailed for $8 to $15 per stove, and stoves produced through the programme should be sold for a similar price. Marketing and promotion: Given the very limited knowledge of stoves in target areas of Timor-Leste, promotion campaigns and marketing will need to be extensive. In particular, promotion activities should include practical demonstrations and trials by community members of stoves, to illustrate the benefits and ease of use. In promoting the benefits of stoves, Mercy Corps should focus on three areas: i) Practical benefits; ii) Health benefits; iii) Economic benefits. Practical benefits are likely to be the biggest pushfactor for women to shift to stoves, and this includes time-savings (cooking and firewood collection/chopping), cleaner kitchen environment; and reduced effort through greater ease of cooking. Health benefits should also be a significant part of the promotion campaign, but will have to include a substantive educational component to improve women s understanding about the health problems associated with using open fires and the improvements that stove will produce. Economic benefits are only likely to be relevant as a promotional tool in the most urban communities in Vera Cruz sub-district of Dili. Production: Given the existing market for fuel-efficient stoves, with significant numbers of households in Dili purchasing stoves from small-scale local manufacturers, Mercy Corps should pursue the option of supporting these manufacturers to improve design and scale-up production as a first-best programme strategy. Forestry Programme impact - Forestry Deforestation: With such limited information on deforestation at the local level in Timor-Leste, it is difficult to estimate the extent to which Mercy Corps forestry programming will limit the problem in the target districts. The baseline assessment findings suggest, however, that deforestation issues vary significantly between districts and even between communities, and therefore the impact of the programme is also likely to vary from community to community. To the extent that household perceptions of changing ease of firewood collection over time can be used as a proxy for changes in accessible forest (and therefore deforestation), it seems clear that in Dili district in particular there is a deteriorating forestry situation. In Ainaro district too, large numbers of households report increasing difficulty collecting firewood over time. In these districts, the successful introduction of sustainable Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

11 forestry plantations may significantly contribute to reducing deforestation 1. In Manufahi district, however, the situation is less clear, and in many communities it does not appear that deforestation is a problem. In such locations the programme will not counter or reverse existing problems of deforestation, but nevertheless has the potential to help prevent future problems of over-harvesting and deforestation. Firewood collection: Availability of easily accessible firewood sources has the potential to benefit households by reducing time spent collecting firewood. Reducing time spent collecting firewood allows households to spend more time on productive activities or social activities that contribute to the wellbeing of the family. Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: The potential for forestry activities to enhance community resiliency to disasters and climate change is high, though more community-specific information is needed 2. In particular, the very high levels of food insecurity in the target areas highlights household vulnerability to flooding and chronic problems of droughts, and underlines the role that forestry can play through supporting watershed and slope management. Forestry programme design Size of firewood plantations: To meet all household firewood needs, sustainable firewood plantations need to yield 3.4 tonnes of firewood per year per household. Where firewood demand is reduced through the introduction of more efficient stoves, the sustainable yield will be lessened. The design of forestry nurseries and plantations should take these findings into consideration. Tara Bandu Law: The Government of Timor-Leste s community Tara Bandu Law prohibits cutting of branches or chopping down trees. In introducing sustainably managed firewood plantations, there is a risk that sustainable harvesting methods will nevertheless be in contravention of Tara Bandu Law, and could cause confusion or problems. Mercy Corps should therefore ensure early coordination with the Ministry of Forestry and district administration to differentiate sustainably managed plantations from harvesting of wood from virgin forest. Strategy: The varying forestry situation between communities, including in terms of difficulty collecting firewood and land-ownership of firewood sources, suggests Mercy Corps should not take a one-size-fitsall approach to forestry activities. Instead, Mercy Corps should work with communities to assess their specific practices and needs, and use community-participatory approach in selecting strategies for each community. 1 The extent to which this is the case depends on the underlying causes of deforestation. If the cause is firewood collection (which at least in part it seems to be), then providing a sustainable alternative source of fuel will have a large impact on reducing deforestation. If other causes have been responsible (for example population pressure and clearing land for farming is likely to be another significant factor behind deforestation in many communities), then sustainable firewood plantations will not alone be able to halt deforestation rates. 2 This information will be collected during the separate forestry study, including a GIS mapping component. Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

12 2. Background E4A Programme Summary Mercy Corps Energy for All (E4A) programme is a 36-month initiative funded by the European Commission. The programme began in May 2011, and will be implemented in three districts of Timor-Leste: in rural Manufahi and Ainaro districts and in peri-urban areas of Dili district (see map below showing target areas). E4A aims to address the chronic problem of energy poverty that is prevalent throughout Timor-Leste. With a GDP per capita of just $454 and almost 70% of the population living on less than $2 per day, Timor-Leste is the second poorest country in Asia, ranked 120th on the UNDP Human Development Index. Energy poverty is a major driver of the country s overall poverty cycle. Impacting a number of cross-cutting issues, energy poverty generates illhealth and environmental degradation, and limits economic growth where it is needed most. In addition, it contributes to poor education and gender inequities. Only 36% of Timor-Leste s one million people have access to electricity, with most of these concentrated in the capital Dili 3. Instead, the majority of households currently depend on kerosene and candles to meet their lighting needs, the price of which is a huge burden on families limited income, and for the very poorest families is prohibitively expensive meaning many have no light source after dark. This situation also has significant opportunity costs, as limited and poor quality lighting limits opportunities for income-generating activities in the evenings such as textile weaving, and means school children are unable to study. For cooking, an estimated 95% of rural and peri-urban households use inefficient, open wood-fuelled fires. This has resulted in severe degradation of forests in many areas of the country and in particular in the targeted districts, and risk of respiratory illness associated with smoke exposure. In recognition of these chronic and pervasive problems associated with energy, the overall objective of the E4A programme is to alleviate energy poverty in rural and peri-urban Timor-Leste through the specific objective of facilitating access to alternative sources of energy and renewable sources of fuel in three rural and peri-urban districts of Timor-Leste through sustainable market-driven approaches. The programme is being implemented in partnership with local NGO Naroman Timor Foun (NTF). Baseline Assessment objectives In August 2011 the baseline assessment for the E4A programme was conducted in the target districts of Ainaro, Manufahi and Dili. The primary purpose was to collect baseline data against which programme outcomes and achievements will be measured, and in the process gather information about beneficiaries, energy practices and market access that will feed into programme design and strategy. The focus of this assessment was community 3 World Bank. Rural Electrification Master Plan: Timor-Leste. August Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

13 practices and needs; Mercy Corps is undertaking two separate studies into the current state of market supply chains for solar products and stove manufacturing in Timor-Leste. The specific objectives of the Baseline Assessment were to: 1. Obtain baseline measurements for key programme indicators 2. Develop a clear understanding of the status and needs of targeted households to inform programme design 3. Obtain market system information, to inform programme design The baseline assessment will be an integral part of the Monitoring and Evaluation framework for the programme. Mid-term and Final evaluation assessments will be conducted using the same methodology as was established during the Baseline, and targeting the same households to enable longitudinal impact comparisons. This Baseline Assessment Report will describe the survey process and provide detailed analysis of the findings, including recommendations for programme staff to incorporate into activity planning. 3. Methodology The Baseline Assessment was designed and coordinated by the Mercy Corps E4A programme team, in consultation with members of the Mercy Corps DM&E and CCEN (Climate Change, Environment and Natural Resources) technical support units. The methodology included a combination of quantitative and qualitative data collection, using the following tools: i. Household surveys ii. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews i. Individual Household Surveys Surveys of individual households were conducted over 10 days from 9th 19th August. Before undertaking the survey, the questionnaire was field-tested with four households to gauge it s applicability to the Timor context and usability for the survey team. The final survey questionnaire was developed based on lessons learnt from this process 4. Before the survey began, the survey team had 2 ½ days of intensive training, which included dry-run practice interviewing households. The survey team consisted of 19 individuals as follows: 1 Baseline Assessment coordinator (E4A Programme Manager); 1 Household Survey coordinator (MC Timor-Leste DM&E Officer); 4 E4A programme staff; 8 staff from partner organisation NTF; and 5 student volunteers from the faculty of engineering at UNTL (National University of Timor-Leste), who had studied renewable energy and solar technologies. A sample of 570 households was surveyed for this assessment, representing 6.7% of the 8,526 households in the target sucos 5. This provided a confidence level of over 95% 6, ensuring high reliability of survey data. All sucos (villages) and aldeias (sub-villages) that are part of the E4A target area were included in the baseline survey, ensuring a broad and comprehensive representation of the target population. Systematic random sampling was used to ensure the number of households surveyed in each aldeia (sub-village) was proportionate to the underlying population. Within each aldeia, houses were selected at random though were chosen to ensure representation across the geographical area of the aldeia; surveyors selected one household at each end of the 4 See Annex 1 for the final version of the Household Survey questionnaire. 5 Exceeding the target number of 360 households 6 Calculated via the online sample size calculator at Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

14 village, and households at fixed intervals between these. Interviews were conducted jointly with both the male and female head of households, though in cases where only one person was available the survey was conducted with them alone. The survey team Table A below shows the number of households surveyed by suco (village), in relation to the total population. Table A: Number of surveyed households by Suco District Sub-district Suco (village) Ainaro Manufahi Dili Ainaro Vila Hato Udo Turiskai Same Vera Cruz Metinaro Number of surveyed households Total households Suro-Craik Cassa Mau-Nuno Leolima Foho-Ailico Beremana Matorec Orana Daisua Grotu Tutuluro Dare Vila Verde Duyung Sabuli TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

15 ii. Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews Information from focus group discussions and key informant interviews was intended to complement that obtained through household surveys. There were three separate types of focus groups discussions undertaken, on the following topics: Current cooking practices, fuel-wood collection and knowledge/perceptions of fuel-efficient stoves Information on this topic was obtained through 6 Focus Group Discussions with women. For the focus group discussions in Dili, Alola Foundation was contracted to lead the process. Alola Foundation is the foremost women s NGO in Timor-Leste, with substantial expertise in women s rights and health issues. Existing community facilities and institutions Key informant interviews were conducted with Chefe Suco and/or Chefe Aldeia in all target communities (a total of 23 key informant interviews were undertaken). Forestry situation and institutions A total of 5 focus group discussions were conducted with Chefe Suco, Chefe Aldeia and other male village representatives. The findings from these discussions will not be included in this report, but will instead be covered in the forestry-specific assessment to be published in separate study. Challenges and Limitations The household survey process ran smoothly, with good comprehension from respondents who were able to answer almost all questions easily. Challenges encountered during implementation of the household survey are outlined in Table B below: Table B: Challenges and limitations of the baseline survey Logistical challenges Experience of survey team Data collection on firewood usage The remote location and poor road conditions in the target areas increased the challenge of reaching the required number of households in the two week implementation period. This challenge was largely overcome by the relatively large size of the survey team, which enabled the target number of surveys to be exceeded. This was the first experience of conducting a field survey for almost all of the survey team (in particular for partner staff and for student volunteers). For this reason, fairly substantial training was conducted before the survey began, ranging from basic training in how to fill in a survey form, to more sophisticated training and practice in how to coax answers from farmers for tricky questions (such as kerosene usage). In the trial version of the survey, questions were included asking households about quantities of firewood used. During the field-test it quickly became apparent that households were not able to answer this question, and any estimates were likely to be extremely inaccurate. To overcome this problem, a different approach was introduced. Enumerators instead asked households to show them how much firewood they used in one day, and then weighed the wood with electronic scales. This produced excellent results, but since it was not possible for all enumerators to have scales, data on firewood usage was obtained from 37% of surveyed households. In the more urbanised areas of peri-urban Dili in particular, there was reluctance in some households to participate in this part of the questionnaire. Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

16 4. Baseline Assessment Results The results of the Baseline Assessment will be presented according to the following headings, incorporating outcomes of the household survey, focus group discussions and key informant interviews: 1. Household demographics 2. Lighting 3. Electricity other uses 4. Cooking 5. Fire and firewood 6. Energy expenditure 7. Lighting / Electricity demand 8. Access to markets and finance 4.1. Household demographics The average size of respondent households was 6.9 individuals (Figure 4.1.1). This was highest in Dili with an average of 7.2 members, and lowest in Ainaro with 6.7 household members on average. The average number of children (under 17 years) is 3.2 per household, and on average each household has 2.8 household members currently attending school. Of the respondent households, 10% were female-headed. The average number of rooms per household was 4.1, though this is significantly higher in Dili than in rural districts. Figure 4.1.1: Household demographics Ainaro Manufahi Dili All Districts Average household members Proportion of female-headed households 12% 7% 10% 10% Average number of children per household (17 years or under) Average number of school-goers Average number of rooms per household Lighting Access to lighting Households in E4A target areas currently depend largely on kerosene to meet their lighting needs (Figure 4.2.1). Over the three districts, 70% of households rely on kerosene as their main source of energy for lighting. Dependency on kerosene is far higher still in the rural districts of Ainaro and Manufahi, where approximately 90% of households use kerosene as their main lighting source. Even in Dili district, where many households have access to electricity from the national grid, 33% of households use kerosene as their main lighting source. Figure 4.2.1: Main source of energy for lighting Ainaro Manufahi Dili All districts Kerosene 89% 93% 33% 71% EDTL 2% 0% 60% 21% Solar 6% 6% 6% 6% Other 3% 1% 1% 2% Candles 0% 1% 0% 0% Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

17 Access to EDTL (the national electricity provider) is the second most common source of energy for lighting, though this is almost entirely limited to Dili where 60% of households in target areas are connected. Solarpowered lighting is significant in all districts, but the proportion of households accessing solar is very low at just 6%. Interestingly, despite use and expenditure on candles being significant across large numbers of households in all districts (section below), only one household identified candles as their main lighting source, indicating that candles are instead a frequently used back-up to other lighting sources. Current household uses of lighting are shown in Figure below. Eating dinner is the activity for which lighting is most commonly used (98% of households), and 71% of households use lighting for cooking also. A very high number of households also use lighting to enable children to do their schoolwork (83%), suggesting access to improved lighting will have a significant impact on children s ability to study. Lighting for livelihood activities is also significant, though predominantly for female activities (12% of households). Figure 4.2.2: Current use of lighting (% of households) 100% 98% 80% 83% 71% 60% 40% 20% 0% Children do homework 12% Eat dinner Cooking Livelihood activities (women) 3% Livelihood activities (men) 10% Social activities 1% Other Kerosene Use of kerosene for lighting Across the three districts, 75% of households use kerosene to meet at least some of their lighting needs, a very high proportion of the population. This is only slightly higher than the 71% that use kerosene for their main lighting source, suggesting that kerosene is not commonly used as a back-up to other lighting sources. Survey data shows that households tend to use several kerosene lamps each evening, reflecting the very low lighting effectiveness of this energy source; 58% of households usually use 4 or more lamps each day (Figure 4.2.3). With respect to hours of use for kerosene lamps, there was some variation. Over 25% of households surveyed use kerosene lamps for 3 hours or less per day, suggesting that by around 9.30pm they have no lighting, or rely instead on other less effective lighting. On the other hand, 47% of households use kerosene lamps for 5 or more hours each day (Figure 4.2.4), indicating the high demand for lighting (predominantly in the evening hours). Kerosene lamps used in target areas are almost exclusively home-made rudimentary lamps; only 2% of households purchase kerosene lamps from shops. Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September

18 Figure 4.2.3: Number of kerosene lamps (% of households) Figure 4.2.4: Duration of kerosene use (% of households) 2% 1% 1 hour or less 20% 1 lamp 2 lamps 25% 6% 18% 2 hours 3 hours 58% 19% 3 lamps 4 or more lamps 22% 28% 4 hours 5 hours 6 hours or more Kerosene consumption and expenditure The reliance on kerosene as a lighting source in target areas is reflected in the high kerosene consumption among surveyed households. For households that use kerosene, average consumption is 4.0 litres per month (Figure 4.2.5). This is significantly higher in Dili district at 6.2 litres per month, likely reflecting higher household income and therefore increased capacity and willingness to pay for more lighting. Figure 4.2.5: Average weekly kerosene consumption (litres per household) Litres of kerosene (per month) Ainaro Manufahi Dili All districts Figure 4.2.6: Average weekly kerosene expenditure (USD per household) $3.5 $3.32 Average weekly expenditure on kerosene (USD) $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 $2.17 $2.03 $2.32 Ainaro Manufahi Dili All districts Current household expenditure on kerosene is a particularly important piece of information that the survey was attempting to capture, as this is central to the cost-benefit calculation for alternative lighting sources. This will also feed into the selection process for solar products to ensure that households can afford to purchase them and repay loans using savings from kerosene expenditure. The survey data shows that average weekly household expenditure on kerosene is $2.32 per week ($9.93 per month) across the target districts (figure 4.2.6). Household expenditure is highest in Dili at $3.32 per week ($14.21 per month), and slightly lower in the two rural districts where household income is lower. Also of interest is the distribution of households in terms of different levels of expenditure. Figure shows the proportion of households for various ranges of kerosene expenditure. Specifically, the data shows that: Over 90% of households spend $1.25 or more per week on kerosene ($5.36 per month) Over 70% of households spend $1.50 or more per week on kerosene ($6.43 per month) Over 50% of households spend $2.50 or more per week on kerosene ($10.71 per month) Over 20% of households spend $3.00 or more per week on kerosene ($12.86 per month) Mercy Corps E4A Baseline Survey Report September