TRANSPORT DEMAND AND SUPPLY MODELING FOR CHENNAI CITY-A SYSTEMS APPROACH

Transcription

1 TRANSPORT DEMAND AND SUPPLY MODELING FOR CHENNAI CITY-A SYSTEMS APPROACH S.Gayathri* #M.E Transportation Engineering, Anna University, College of Engineering, Abstract- Urban transportation system is a complex system with multiple variables and feedback loops between subsystems and influencing factors. The sustainable development of urban transportation system is a key point to strike the resource-saving, environment-friendly, and people-oriented society. Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city of India which covers an area of 6 sq.km and recorded a population of.79 million in 0. This would translate into an estimated 7. million daily vehicle-trips in the year 06, which will be about two times the present vehicle-trips. The rapid increase in population leads to traffic congestion and imbalanced supply and demand of transport facilities. Chennai Metropolitan Area s increase in overall growth will require an adequate and efficient transport system to meet the anticipated population by 06. Existing transportation problems would get compounded and become chaotic if not adequately addressed. Therefore, system dynamics (SD) approach is intend to be used in this study to simulate the evolution of urban transportation system. The developed model is used to test various scenarios and policy options as per the stand point of government policy and intuitive policy options and to suggest appropriate course of actions in a phase-wise manner towards achieving sustainable transportation planning for the study areas. System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of both transport demand and supply would be evolved as to reduce the transport demand of personalized vehicles on par with the possible supply of public vehicles that would be provided in the Chennai city under phase-wise and time-wise manner. Keywords- Vehicle Growth, Transport demand, Transport Supply, System Dynamics,.. I.INTRODUCTION The conception of sustainable urban transportation comprises four aspects, namely, transportation sustainability, economic sustainability, environmental sustainability and social sustainability. Guindy, Chennai-0 gayathrirspv@gmail.com Chennai City has three major rail corridors and MRTS corridor to meet the travel demand of the people. Apart from this it has good metropolitan buses which meet the demand at the maximum. At present there are very less number of studies establishing the overall travel demand supply and to propose the future course of action. Thus it is imperative to develop a dynamic model which would exhibit the invention of various transportation facilities in Chennai and to estimate the travel demand for both present and future situation. Hence proper planning measures should be adopted to reduce the increasing trend of personalized vehicles and make our city a less congested one. II. NEED FOR THE STUDY Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city of India which covers an area of 6 sq.km and recorded a population of.79 million in 0. The CMA which extends over an area of 89 sq.km recorded the population of 8.9 million in 0. This would translate into an estimated 7. million daily vehicle-trips in the year 06, which will be about two times the present vehicle-trips. This rapid increase in population leads to traffic congestion and imbalanced supply and demand of transport facilities. The per capita trip rate for the CMA has increased from.8 in 99 to.6 over the last 7 years and increase in the total travel demand to. crore trips from 7. lakh trips. The per capita motorized trip rate increased to.06 in the same time period. 7

2 In the light of these trends, the current study provides optimal solutions, focusing on a larger comprehensive thought process and on policy issues on the need to move people rather than vehicles. III. Objectives of the Study To study and appreciate the trend of transport development in Chennai with regards to Transportation Demand and Supply. To build a Macro level system dynamics simulation model for the existing and predicted period of Chennai city and peri urban corridor of CMA. To develop a model to access the extent of land use development and its scope in future for Chennai and peri urban Corridor. The developed model is used to test various scenarios and policy options as per the stand point of government policy and intuitive policy options. To suggest appropriate course of actions in a phase-wise manner towards achieving sustainable transportation planning for the study areas. A. Need For System Dynamics Approach It should be noted that the Transport Energy system is a complex system with interdisciplinary system components and feedback connectivity between its subsystems and other multidisciplinary systems such as population, transport, land use and exhibits a dynamic behaviour. Hence it is not appropriate to use the conventional approach to describe the characteristics of this complex system. on both environmental and quality of life sectors to model the various policy options. B. Software Used The model of transport and energy interaction using the System Dynamics (SD) has been implemented in the STELLA environment ( STELLA 9. package). C. Description of Study Area The area selected for study is Chennai city. Chennai is the fourth most populous metropolitan area. The Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) is spread over an area of,89 km (9 sq mi) which consists of Chennai city (7 km) and parts of Thiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts. Chennai city is governed by the Chennai Corporation which was established in 688 and is the oldest municipal corporation in India. In 0, the jurisdiction of the Chennai Corporation was expanded from 7 km (67 sq mi) to an area of 6 km (6 sq mi). Fig Chennai City As System Dynamics operated on the basis of feedback information, it is used as a methodology to simulate the future transport demands in the transportation sector and its impact 7

3 The sectors under consideration for this study are Population, Transport demand and Transport Supply(Trips). E. Model Development and Analysis I) Population Sector:Population (t) = Population (tdt) + (Birth_Rate + Inmigration_Rate Death_Rate Out_Migration_Rate) * dt D. CASUAL LOOP DIAGRAM Fig Population Model Fig Casual Loop Diagram for Transport Sector POPULATION MODEL IMN IMR DN POP BR DR BN OMR OMN Table Graph Fig Casual Loop Diagram for Non Motorized Trips The graphical output from the Population Sector model has been given in Figure which shows a declining trend in Birth and Death rates in accordance with the health policy of the Government. Fig Population Growth Trend (0-06) : P0P : BR : DR : IMR : OMR : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Page Time 0:9 PM 9 May 0 Untitled 7

4 II) Transport Demand Sector Fig 6 Model Development Transport Demand Sector GR bus Tot bus Passengers per bus Persons per TW per day GR TW Tot TW per day Bus Trips TW Trips Bus Inc TW Inc Rail Cap Rail Aug Rte GR Cars Persons per Car per day Tot Cars Rail Aug Car Trips Car Inc F) Scenario Analysis and Model Results In the Do Minimum scenario, the existing trend of growth rates of MTC buses, Two Wheelers, Cars, IPT vehicles and Mini bus has been allowed to continue till the year 06. The result showed that the share of Public Transport trips amounts to only % whereas the trips by Personalised Vehicles constitute the major share of 9%. The demand by supply ratio of the Chennai City is. in the current situation and it is projected to. if the existing situation continues. Ipt Trips GR Ipt Tot Ipt Persons per day per auto Tot Mot Trips Ipt Trips Ipt Inc Tot Public Trips Car Trips Tot Private Trips Bus Trips TW Trips III) Transport Supply Sector Fig 7 Model Development Transport Supply Sector MRTS Cap MRTS Aug Rte Bus Aug Rte Bus Cap MRTS Aug Bus Aug METRO Cap METRO Aug Rte Tot Bus Supply BRT Aug Rte BRT Cap METRO Aug Tot Rail Supply BRT Aug Tot Pub Supply Sub Cap Sub Aug Rte Motorised Trips D S Ratio Sub Aug In the Partial Efforts scenario (Scenario II), simulation has been carried out such that minimal efforts are undertaken by the government to achieve a Modal Split of 6:6 between Public and Private Mode. On comparison with Scenario I, a remarkable decrease to % and % could be observed in Scenario II with regard to the trips made by cars and two wheelers. The demand by supply ratio of the Chennai City is reduced to.0 if the government steps towards increasing public transport partially. In the desirable scenario, the policy of Government to achieve a modal split of 70:0 between public and private mode. Public transport has been augmented in a phase wise manner and simultaneously the growth of two wheelers and cars have been restricted to % and.% respectively in 06. This increase can be attributed to the introduction of Metro, Mono rail and BRT in the city and a maximum utilisation of its services. By augmenting the public transport to its maximum the demand by supply ratio of Chennai City is reduced to 0.8 thus indicating sustainable transportation with better quality of life. 7

5 A case study was conducted on the IT Corridor of Chennai city. The results shows that In the Partial scenario, by incorporating public transport partially, the demand by supply ratio is reduced to.6 which is 0% reduction than Do-minimum scenario. In the Desirable scenario, by incorporating public transport to a maximum, the demand by supply ratio is reduced to 0.8 which is % reduction than Do-minimum scenario. References. Chennai Comprehensive Transport Study, CMDA, Wilbursmith Associates, Second Master Plan, 06 Chennai.. Kavin (009), Macro Level System Dynamics Simulation Model Building For Sustainable Transportation Planning, CTDT Thesis, M.E. Urban Engineering, College of Engineering, Guindy.. Keyvan Vakili (00), Strategic Assessment of Transportation Demand Management Policies: Tehran Case Study, vol,no.,pp Road Transport Forecasts 0for England, public transport report. 6. Tony May (0), Singapore A Case Study on the Balanced Urban Transport, Institute of transport studies, Vol, No., pp.-. 76