The Solar Thermal Potential in Europe

Transcription

1 The Solar Thermal Potential in Europe Werner Weiss AEE Institute for Sustainable Technologies Peter Biermayr Vienna University of Technology

2 Share of Renewables 2005 and target ,00% 50,00% Share of Renewable Energies in 2005 and 2020 Share of Renewable Energies 2005 Goal for Renewable Energies ,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxemburg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom

3 Heating and Cooling in EU countries Final Energy Demand in EU Transport 31% Heating and Cooling 49% Electricity 20% Source: EREC, 2006 Source of data: EU (2008)

4 Background of the Study ESTIF assigned a potential study in order to determine the contribution of Solar Thermal to the 20% Renewable Target of the European Union and the long term Potential by 2050 Detailed studies were carried out for Austria, Denmark Germany, Poland and Spain. Based on the 5 county studies a methodology was developed in order to calculate the overall potential for solar thermal and the economic benefits and costs for EU 27

5 Content of the Study 1. Current Heat demand in the selected countries 2. Current solar thermal market in the selected countries 3. Development of the heating and cooling demand Solar thermal market development Potential in the five reference countries 6. Overall Potential EU 27

6 Final Energy Consumption EU-27 by Sector in 2005 Housholds 26% Final Energy Consumption by Sector EU 27 [Total: 13,609 TWh] Service 15% Industry 28% Transport 31% Source of data:european Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008

7 Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2005 Low Temperature Heat Demand by Sector EU 27 [Total: 4,640 TWh] Service 19% Industry 20% Households 61% Source of data:european Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008

8 Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2006 Final Energy Consumption for Heating and Air Conditioning - EU 27 in 2006 Total 4640 TWh Air conditioning Residential 0,4% Industrial Heat - Low Temp. 19,5% Air conditioning Service 1,5% Water Heating Residential - SFH 5,5% Water Heating Residential - MFH 4,7% Space Heating Service 17,3% Space Heating Residential - SFH 33,8% Space Heating Residential - MFH 17,2%

9 Low Temperature Heat Demand: Germany Heating and Hot Water final energy consumption (TWh) 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 Electricity Biomass District Heat Gas Oil Coal 0,0 Space heating Water heating

10 Low Temperature Heat Demand: Spain Heating and Hot Water final energy consumption (TWh) 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Coal 0,0 Space heating Water heating

11 Development of the Heating and Cooling Demand Relative development of energy sonsumption (2005=1) 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 0,0% Space heating Industrial heat Source of data:haas et al. (2007) and calculations EEG

12 Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Residential Sector Austria Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,15 0,26 0,57 0,83 Germany Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,88 1,63 3,34 5,22 Denmark Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,03 0,06 0,21 0,53 Spain Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,23 10,8 15,84 19,95 Poland Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,14 0,78 1,66 2,36 Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC

13 Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Service Sector Austria: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh e ) ,40 0,49 0,77 1,03 Germany: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh e ) ,13 5,78 10,63 13,86 Denmark: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh e ) ,09 0,2 0,52 0,65 Spain: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh e ) ,1 34,1 45,98 57,97 Poland: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) ,44 1,22 2,40 3,35 Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC

14 The Solar Thermal Potential EU 27

15 Scenario 1 Business As Usual No reduction of the heating and cooling demand compared to Moderate political support mechanisms: Besides a few forefront countries no solar obligations for new residential buildings; subsidies (10-30% of the system cost) for residential buildings and moderate energy prices of fossil energy. Low R&D rate and therefore no solution for high energy density heat stores or new collector materials; no sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling. Main focus on solar thermal systems for hot water preparation in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%); marginal market diffusion in all other sectors. Low growth rates in all EU 27 countries of installed capacity (7-10% per annum until 2020).

16 Scenario 2 Advanced Market Deployment Moderate reduction of the heating demand compared to 2006 (depending on the country but on average: -5% by 2020, -10% by 2030 and -20% by 2050). Political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all new residential buildings; subsidies for existing residential, service and commercial buildings as well as for industrial applications (subsidies: 10-30% of the system cost) or constantly moderate rising energy prices of fossil energy. Medium R&D rate and therefore solutions for high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling by the year Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and medium solar fraction (20-50%) from 2020; moderate market diffusion in all other sectors. Medium growth rate of installed capacity (10-15% per annum until 2020).

17 Scenario 3 Full R&D and Policy Scenario Significant reduction of the heat demand compared to 2006 (depending on the country but on average: -10% by 2020, -20% by 2030 and -30% by 2050). Full political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all new and existing residential, service and commercial buildings as well as for low temperature industrial applications or high energy prices of fossil energy. High R&D rate and therefore solutions for cost efficient high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling available by Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and high solar fraction (50-100%) from 2020; substantial market diffusion in all other sectors. High growth rate of installed capacity (~25% per annum until 2020).

18 In order to use the Potential

19 Solar Active House

20 Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation

21 Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation source: gap solution

22 Thermal Energy Storage The Key Issue

23 Thermal Energy Storage The Key Issue Sensible Heat 100 MJ/m³ Latent Heat MJ/m³ Thermo-chemical Heat Storage 1000 MJ/m³

24 LARGE-SCALE INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS

25 District Heating 3MW th, AEVG, Graz, Austria Source: S.O.L.I.D.

26 RESULTS shown on two reference countries

27 Final Energy Demand - Austria Final Energy Demand in Austria [Total: 311 TWh] Service 14% Industry 32% Housholds 25% Transport 29%

28 Share of Heat - Austria High temperature heat >250 C 10% Total Final Energy Consumption in Austria and share of heat [Total: 311 TWh] Low temperature heat <250 C 35% Electricity and Transport 55%

29 Solar Thermal Potential Austria Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Austrian Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector 120,00 100,00 80,00 Industrial Heat - Low Temp. Air conditioning Service Combisystems Space Heating Service Air conditioning Residential (el.) for space Water Heating heating Residential - MFH and Space Heating Residential - MFH hot water Water Heating Residential - SFH Space Heating Residential - SFH [TWh] 60,00 40,00 19% 40% 20,00 0,9% 10% Heat 0,00 Heating/Cooling Demand AT Solar Thermal 2006 Heat Demand AT ,5% Solar Thermal 2020 Heat Demand AT % Solar Thermal 2030 Heat Demand AT % Solar Thermal 2050

30 Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the requirements of the Full R&D and Policy Scenario - Austria Suitable area of roof and facade needed 40,00% 60,00 [% of architecturally suitable area needed] 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% Share of suitable land area needed [%] Share of suitable roof area needed [%] Share of suitable facade area needed [%] Suitable land area needed [km²] Suitable roof area needed [km²] Suitable facade area needed [km²] 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 [km² solar area needed] 0,00% 0, [m²/inhabit.] -

31 Solar Thermal Potential Spain Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Spanish Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector Combisystems Industrial Heat - Low Temp. Air conditioning Service Space Heating Service Air conditioning Residential 300,00 for space heating, cooling Water Heating and Residential hot - water MFH Space Heating Residential - MFH Water Heating Residential - SFH Competition of PV driven cooling?? Space Heating Residential - SFH 250,00 200,00 63% [TWh] 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,22% 5% 29% Cooling and Heat 0,00 Heating/Cooling Demand ES Solar Thermal 2006 Heat Demand ES % Solar Thermal 2020 Heat Demand ES % Solar Thermal 2030 Heat Demand ES % Solar Thermal 2050

32 Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the requirements of the Full R&D and Policy Scenario - Spain Suitable area of land, roof and facade needed in Spain 60,00% 250,00 [% of architecturally suitable area needed] 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% Share of suitable land area needed [%] Share of suitable roof area needed [%] Share of suitable facade area needed [%] Suitable land area needed [km²] Suitable roof area needed [km²] Suitable facade area needed [km²] 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 [km² solar area needed] 0,00% 0,02 0, [m²/inhabit.]

33 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution of Solar Thermal to the EU 27 Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector 5000, , , ,00 Industrial Heat - Low Temp. Air conditioning Service Space Heating Service Air conditioning Residential Water Heating Residential - MFH Space Heating Residential - MFH Water Heating Residential - SFH Space Heating Residential - SFH 3000,00 [TWh] 2500, ,00 47% 1500, ,00 15% 500,00 0,2% 3,6% 0,00 Heating/Cooling Demand EU Solar Thermal 2006 Heat Demand % Solar Thermal 2020 Heat Demand % Solar Thermal 2030 Heat Demand % Solar Thermal 2050

34 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution to the overall low temperature heat and cooling demand GWth Market Development according to 3 Szenarios - Europe Business as usual Advanced market deployment Full R&D and Policy Scenario Combisystems high solar fraction Combisystems low solar fraction m²/ inh = hot water

35 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution to the overall low temperature heat and cooling demand Market Development according to 3 Szenarios - Europe Business as usual Advanced market deployment Full R&D and Policy Scenario 8 m²/inh = 2716 GW (3880 Mill m²) 47% GWth m²/inh = 1019 GW (1455 Mill m²) 15% m²/Inh = 271 GW (388 Mill m²) 3.6%

36 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution to the EU 20% Renewable Energy Goal Assuming a 9% reduction of the overall final energy demand by 2020 compared to the year 2006, the contribution of solar thermal to the EU 20% Renewable Energies Goal would be 6.3% under the RDP scenario and 2.4% under the less ambitious AMD scenario. Related to the 11.5 percentage points necessary increase of renewable energies (Reference share 2005 = 8.5%) in the EU 27 countries until 2020, the contribution of solar thermal would be 12% according to the RDP scenario; 4.5% according to the AMD scenario and 2.9% in the business as usual scenario.

37 Growth Rate in terms of Installed Collector Area Annual Growth 25,8% GWth Mill. m² Status ,2 20,2 Installed in ,2 3, ,8 4, ,5 5, ,4 6, ,5 7, ,9 9, ,7 12, ,9 15, ,8 19, ,3 24, ,8 31, ,4 39, ,4 49, ,3 61, ,5 77,8

38 Economical Impact Number of Jobs Jobs in Solar Thermal EU 27 RDP Scenario

39 Economical Impact Total Investment [Total 214 Billion ] Billion Space Heating Residential - SFH Water Heating Residential - SFH Space Heating Residential - MFH Water Heating Residential - MFH Air conditioning Residential Space Heating Service Air conditioning Service Industrial Heat - Low Temp.

40 Economical Impact Installed capacity Collector area System cost excl. VAT Total Investment until [GW th ] [Mill. m²] [ /m²] [Bilion ]

41 Environmental Impact Solar Yield [TWh/a]

42 Environmental Impact Oil Equivalent 250,0 200,0 217 Billion t/a 150,0 100,0 50,0 1, ,

43 Environmental Impact Avoided CO2 Emissions 700,0 600, ,0 Million t/a 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 3, ,

44 Summary It s the right moment: Heat accounts for almost 50% of the Final energy demand in the EU All EU 27 countries have to work out an Renewables Action Plan this year. Without the renewable heat sector, the targets will not be reached Solar Thermal can contribute considerable

45 Thank you for your attention