EOP / ESF - 03 ANNEX / APPENDIX 3-1 / TAB B EVENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS TAB B EVENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

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1 TAB B B-1 FEBRUARY 2014

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3 I. INTRODUCTION A. The purpose of this section is to present various debris forecasting and estimating techniques including various tools and rules of thumb to assist jurisdictional debris manager s plan for large scale debris operations. B. Natural and man-made disasters precipitate a variety of debris that includes, but not limited to such things as vegetative debris, sand, gravel, construction and demolition debris (C&D), vehicles, personal property, etc. Such natural disasters will require the removal of debris from both public and private lands and waterways. II. ASSUMPTIONS A. Natural and manmade disasters precipitate a variety of debris that include, but are not limited to, such things as trees, sand, gravel, building construction material, vehicles, personal property, and hazardous materials; B. The quantity and type of debris generated from any particular disaster will be a function of the location and kind of event experienced, as well as its magnitude, duration, and intensity; C. The quantity and type of debris generated, its location, and the size of the area over which it is dispersed will have a direct impact on the type of collection and disposal methods utilized to address the debris problem, associated costs incurred, and how quickly the problem can be addressed; D. In a major or catastrophic disaster, many state agencies and local governments will have difficulty in locating staff, equipment, and funds to devote to debris removal, in the short-term as well as long term; E. A natural disaster that requires the removal of debris from public or private lands and waters could occur at any time; F. The amount of debris resulting from an event or disaster could exceed the local government s ability to dispose of it; G. If the natural disaster warrants, the Governor would declare a state of emergency that authorizes the use of State resources to assist in the removal and disposal of debris. In the event Federal resources are required, the Governor would request through FEMA a Presidential Disaster Declaration; B-3 FEBRUARY 2014

4 H. Private contractors will play a significant role in the debris removal, collection, reduction, and disposal process; I. The debris management program implemented by the local government will be based on the waste management approach of reduction, reuse, reclamation, resource recovery, incineration and landfilling; J. The County will operate under current FEMA Public Assistance (PA) Program guidelines for reimbursement as described in the Stafford Act. The County should reevaluate provisions of this Tab should significant changes to the PA Program occur; K. In the event of a debris-generating incident exceeding the County s ability to manage internally, the County jurisdictions will activate one or more pre-positioned debris removal contractors; L. In the event of a debris-generating incident exceeding the County s ability to manage internally, the County jurisdictions will activate pre-positioned monitoring contractors; M. If warranted, the County will request State and Federal assistance through the State Operations Center (SOC); N. Throughout this document, the terms Tab and Strategy may be used interchangeably III. DEBRIS FORECASTING A. Debris forecasting is normally a pre-disaster activity technique used to predict debris quantities by type. Debris Forecasting is not an exact science. Broad assumptions and wide-scale projections must be made throughout the process. However, even with its inaccuracies, the resulting data can be very useful in completing the next phases of the planning process, such as: 1. Establishing jurisdictional debris clearing and removal procedures; 2. Designating Debris Management Sites (DMS); 3. Establishing final disposition/disposal procedures; and 4. Determining the type and number of stand-by debris management contracts required. B. Debris Forecasting Techniques. Certain planning assumptions must be made concerning the type and magnitude of debris generating events. For instance, planning would assume that a specific type of event, such as B-4 FEBRUARY 2014

5 an earthquake, could affect the area with large quantities of primarily C&D; whereas other events like a major hurricane small flood or tornado could leave every type of debris imaginable. There are three basic techniques used for debris forecasting. When these three techniques are combined, a very effective analysis can be completed. These techniques include: 1. Historical Analysis. A Historical Analysis looks at prior debris generating events that occurred in the community and/or to similar communities. With this analysis completed it may be possible to plan for effective response to similar type events. However, because the event may have been limited in scope or experienced debris staff is no longer available, this method has severe limitations. In order to complete a Historical Analysis of prior debris events, some basic information should be gathered: a. Prior event(s) should be selected from your community or from communities who have experienced the type of disaster you have forecasted for your community; and b. Key staff members responsible for debris activities should be interviewed to determine procedures that were effective and those that were not. 2. Community-based Hazard/Risk Analysis. The Hazard or Risk Analysis is utilized to determine the types and quantities of debris generated by various events. This analysis is then used as a critical component of the debris management plan. Results of an analysis may indicate (examples only): a. Land use changes throughout the community may increase or decrease the types of debris generated during an event; b. In the future, a significant decrease in landfill capacity or more current landfill regulations may have a severe impact managing debris; and c. An increase or decrease of staffing within agencies and organizations with debris management responsibilities could make a difference in local governments response capabilities. 3. Computer Models. Computers can be used for both of the first two techniques to perform calculations and present the analysis. However, there are a range of computer-based prediction models available to perform some of the more routine calculations, use a community s Geographical Information System (GIS) and plan for B-5 FEBRUARY 2014

6 any number of event scenarios. Computerized modeling programs have been developed to provide reasonable debris predictions for communities under various disaster types. Types of these interactive models are: a. USACE b. Private Industry c. HAZUS C. Simplified Debris Forecasting Method (Example). The following is a simple example of a method to systematically forecast the type and quantity of debris for a jurisdiction: 1. First, obtain detailed maps of your community and highlight them with an indication of the type of land use in each area, such as urban, industrial, rural and mixed. This area separation provides similar land use areas can be assumed to have similar debris types. For instance: a. Parks, orchards, groves, nurseries and tree-lined streets will have similar debris quantities based on an acreage or mileage basis; b. Commercial and Industrial areas tend to have heavy amounts of C&D; and c. Residential areas can be a combination of vegetative and C&D. 2. Second, develop a representative sample of the debris in each area. Debris quantities can be estimated using the guidelines provided: a. One story house = Volume in cubic yards times 0.33; b. Personal property from flooded home without basement = cy; c. Single wide mobile home = 290 cy; d. Double wide mobile home = 415 cy. B-6 FEBRUARY 2014

7 3. Third, project the sampling of debris for each area and provide a total of the amount and type of debris for each area. The grand total of all these calculations will provide the jurisdiction with an estimate useful for planning purposes. IV. DEBRIS ESTIMATING A. The quantity and type of debris generated from any particular disaster is a function of the location and kind of event experienced, as well as its magnitude, duration, and intensity. The quantity and type of debris generated, its location, and the size of the area over which it is dispersed directly impacts the type of collection and disposal methods used to address the debris problem, associated costs incurred, and the speed with which the problem can be addressed. B. Making a determination as to the types and quantities of debris following an event is critical to jurisdictional debris managers. Debris estimating is normally used in a post-disaster situation to establish a reasonable estimate of the actual debris quantities and mix. Debris estimates may be used to determine a jurisdiction s actual capability to handle the situation. Debris contracting, the management of DMS, and the possible need for State and Federal Resources will require a reasonably accurate estimate of debris types and quantities. C. Estimating Post Event Debris Volumes 1. Area Considerations. Consider the area to be estimated (rural or urban; residential, commercial, or industrial) and the manner in which the area should be divided (sectors). Debris estimating can be expedited by dividing the community into sectors. Remember that however you define your area, you must be consistent with your system and keep detailed notes on how, where and what method you used for your estimates. These notes must be well documented and maintained for future reference. For Presidentially declared disasters, the information will be incorporated on the Project Worksheet. 2. Debris Types. There are many different ways to estimate debris, and techniques may be different depending on the type of debris. Types of debris may include: vegetative, construction and demolition material, hazardous/toxic materials, a mix of different things. 3. Identify Debris Handling Requirements. Examples include: special handling and disposal requirements for hazardous/toxic materials, and/or debris that will require separation before removal. B-7 FEBRUARY 2014

8 Remember, for PA funding, determine if the debris is eligible or what portion is eligible. 4. Estimating Tools. Being creative with the tools, techniques and information available to you can bring the best results. It is important to have the correct tools, aids and information in place when doing estimates. Debris estimates are only as good as the basic information used to create them. Ensure that necessary equipment is available, including: a. Digital (preferred) camera; b. 100-foot tape or roll-off wheel; c. Calculator, notepad, sketchpad; d. Maps of area; e. Aerial photographs (preferably before and after the disaster); and f. Dedicated vehicle and mobile communications. 5. Estimating Aids. The following are various mathematical formulas and techniques used to estimate post event debris volumes. It is very important to record the process and basis for the estimate on Project Worksheets (PWs) for Public Assistance (PA) and other reports. a. Mathematical Formulas for Buildings. The following information will assist you in determining the amount of debris from destroyed buildings, homes and debris piles: 1) One-story building formula: LxW xh = cy x.33 = cy 27 a) The 27 factor is the conversion factor from cubic feet to cubic yards; b) The 0.33 factor accounts for the wasted air space in the average stick-built home. B-8 FEBRUARY 2014

9 2) One-story house formula: 3) Outbuildings: L xw x8 = cy x 0.33 = cy of debris 27 L xw xh x.033 = cy of debris 27 4) Mobile homes formula: L xw xh = cy 27 a) Single wide mobile home = 290 cy of debris; b) Double wide mobile home = 415 cy of debris. c) The 0.33 factor is not applied to mobile home calculations due to their compact construction. In mobile homes there is very little wasted air space every inch of the unit is used in storage, the walls are narrower, etc; d) These numbers were verified during Hurricane Floyd. The State of North Carolina demolished approximately 2,000 mobile homes. 5) Debris piles: L xw xh = cy 27 L = Length, W = Width, H = Height, All measurements are in feet, All debris amounts are in cy = Cubic Yards b. Estimating Techniques. Measurements. Measurements can be done in many ways. In most cases, measurements are made by volume (cy=cubic yards). However, if material is being taken to a landfill, there may be access to a scale for weight measurements. For demolition, contractors may use a lump sum price. 1) Cubic Yard: Cubic Yard (cy) measurements are used to determine the unit price of debris (woody, mixed or B-9 FEBRUARY 2014

10 construction & demolition) transported to a Debris Management Site or permanent landfill. 2) Ton Measurements: All trucks must have a certified tare weight (empty) established if payments are going to be made based on certified scale net weight receipts. Field Debris Monitors will be required to spot check trucks after dumping to see if they are still at their tare weight. Truck Load tickets are often used to document measurements. Note: Gross weight tare weight = net weight. c. Reminders: The following reminders may be of assistance when performing debris estimates: 1) Look beyond the curb into side and backyards and at condition of the homes. Most debris in these areas will eventually move to the curb; 2) Wet storms will produce more personal property debris (household furnishings, clothing, rugs, etc.) if roofs are blown away; 3) Look for hanging debris such as broken limbs after an ice and/or wind storm; 4) Flood-deposited sediment may be compacted in place. Volume may increase as debris is picked up and moved; 5) Using aerial photographs in combination with ground measurements will help determine if there are any voids in the middle of large debris piles; 6) Treat debris pile as a cube, not a cone, when performing estimates. d. Conversions. The following are rules of thumb. It will be necessary to do a field test to verify the makeup of the debris for your area and disaster type. Actual numbers can be very different. Taking an average load, measuring the truck, then weighing it will help determine what to use for a specific situation. 1) When developing cubic yard (cy) measurements, divide cubic feet by 27. B-10 FEBRUARY 2014

11 2) When converting from cy to tons, remember to use the correct factor: e. Rules of thumb: a) Use 2 if converting for construction & demolition material; b) Use 4 if converting for woody material. 1) 15 trees 8 inches in diameter = 40 cy (average); 2) Root system (8-10 diameter) may require one flatbed trailer to move; 3) To convert cy of C&D debris to tons, divide by 2; 4) To convert tons of C&D debris to cy, multiply by 2. f. Damage estimates can be made from available aerial photographs. To estimate debris using a photograph: 1) Select an object in the photograph for which the length can be reasonably estimated; 2) Measure the object in the foreground and estimate its length at 25 feet; 3) Apply that length to the intact houses to estimate the approximate length and width of each house. Calculate the approximate square footage by multiplying the length times the width. If you have houses of differing sizes, measure several and then calculate an average square footage. Note: After the Oklahoma City tornado, photos from a news report and aerial photographs were used to do debris estimation. It can be very accurate in the right situation. B-11 FEBRUARY 2014

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13 / EXHIBIT 1 CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL EXHIBIT 1 CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL B-13 FEBRUARY 2014

14 / EXHIBIT 1 CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK B-14 FEBRUARY 2014

15 / EXHIBIT 1 CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL EXHIBIT 1: CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL B-15 FEBRUARY 2014

16 / EXHIBIT 1 CHATHAM COUNTY HURRICANE DEBRIS MODEL THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK B-16 FEBRUARY 2014

17 / EXHIBIT 2 HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS EXHIBIT 2 HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS B-17 FEBRUARY 2014

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19 / EXHIBIT 2 HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS EXHIBIT 4: HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS USACE Debris Projection Model DEBRIS CHARACTERIZATION IN CUBIC YARDS Hurricane Category Debris Quantity Woody Debris Burnable Requires Sorting Recyclable Soil Recyclable Metals Must Be Landfilled Ash To Be Landfilled Total For Landfill I 263,393 79,018 77,437 9,219 27,656 70,062 7,823 77,885 II 1,053, , ,750 36, , ,250 31, ,541 III 3,424,105 1,,027,231 1,006, , , , ,696 1,012,508 IV 6,584,817 1,,975,445 1,935, ,406 1,751, ,569 1,947,130 V 10,535,707 3,,160,712 3,097, ,106,249 2,802, ,910 3,115,408 ASSUMPTIONS: 1. 30% of the total quantity of debris consists of clean woody material, suitable for burning % of the total quantity of debris consists of mixed materials. 3. Debris quantities in No. 2 above consists of: - (42%) wood suitable for burning after sorting - ( 5%) soil - (15%) recyclable metals - (38%) material to be landfilled 4. Burned debris residuals will be 5% of original volume and will bee landfilled. B-19 FEBRUARY 2014

20 / EXHIBIT 2 HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS HURRICANE DEBRIS PROJECTIONS USACE) United States Army Corps of Engineers Debris Projection Model* * DEBRIS REMOVAL EFFORT (180 DAYS) Mission Hurricane Category Debris Quantity Period (days) Dailyy Production (yd3) Front-end Loaders Required Trucks Required I 263,393 II 1,053,571 III 3,424,105 IV 6,584,817 V 10,535,707 DEBRIS REMOVAL EFFORT Hurricane Category I 263,393 II 1,053,571 III 3,424,105 IV 6,584,817 V 10,535,707 DEBRIS REMOVAL EFFORT Hurricane Category Debris Quantity Debris Quantity 180 1, , , , , T (120 DAYS) Mission Dailyy Period (days) 120 2, , , , , T (60 DAYS) Mission Dailyy Period (days) Production (yd3) Production (yd3) Front-end Loaders Required Front-end Loaders Required Trucks Required Trucks Required I 263,393 II 1,053,571 III 3,424,105 IV 6,584,817 V 10,535,707 ASSUMPTIONS: 1) 4 CY loader, 10 min. to load 20 C 2) 15 mile avg. haul distance 3) 12 hour work day; 10 hours actua 4) 70 minute truck cycle time 5) 8 trucks per loader 6) 1200 CY/day/loader 7) Daily production requirement = D CY truck 60 4, , , , , al production Debris Quantity/ Mission Period , B-20 FEBRUARY 2014