World development towards 2052 What should be done to ensure a more attractive future?

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "World development towards 2052 What should be done to ensure a more attractive future?"

Transcription

1 CENTRE FOR GREEN GROWTH World development towards 252 What should be done to ensure a more attractive future? Jorgen Randers Professor emeritus Climate strategy BI Norwegian Business School Innovation Day, Innovation Norway Millennium Hilton Seoul, September 28, 217 Jorgen Randers Randers 1 1

2 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 252, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See J Randers 2

3 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 3

4 Gpersons 1 World population will peak in 24 % / yr 5. 8 Population ( scale) Birth rate 2. 2 Death rate (scale ) 1. g update GAG Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 4

5 Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue its spectacular decline 4.5 Crude birth rate (in % per year) USA Solid: Historical decline in the number of children per woman Dashed: Future decline in the number of children per woman OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA GDP per person (1 $ per person-year) J Randers 5 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, 216

6 GDP growth rate will decline towards zero Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr) CHINA ROW BRISE OECD USA J Randers 6 Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report

7 World GDP will grow more slowly than before T$ / yr 25 2 Population (scale ) Gpersons $/yr 5 4 GDP ( scale) GDP per pperson (scale ) g update GAG Figure 4-3 (modified): Gross Domestic Product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population multiplied with GDP per inhabitant. J Randers 7 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, 216

8 There will be huge regional differences 36 Consumption per person (in 1 PPP US$ per person per year) USA 3 OECD China 24 World 18 BRISE RoW Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 8

9 Efficiency will rise & energy use peak in 23 Gtoe / yr 25 toe / M$ 5 T$ / yr 25 2 GDP (scale ) Energy use ( scale) Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) g update J Randers 9 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

10 World use of fossil fuels will peak in 225 Gtoe / yr 9. Fossil use Gtoe / yr Fossil use (scale ) Renewable energy use g update Nuclear use Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1

11 Cost of solar will fall more, installations grow Source: J Randers 11

12 Coal - and oil will peak in 22. Gas in 23 Gtoe / yr 9. Fossil use Gtoe / yr Fossil use (scale ) Oil use Coal use Gas use g update Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12

13 CO 2 emissions from energy will peak in 225 GtCO2 / yr 45 tco2 / toe 4. Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) CO2 emissions ( scale) Energy use (scale ) g update Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May J Randers 13

14 The temperature will peak at + 2,5 C in 28 C Temperature rise over 185 (in C) ESCIMO with The 252 forecast CO2 emissions.5 History NOAA g update 216 Source: Randers et al 216, ESCIMO, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:1.5194/esd J Randers 14

15 Unavoidable costs will slow consumption T$ / yr Traditional investment (25% of GDP) Unavoidable spending on environment, climate, repair and inequity GDP Consumption Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 g update GAG 216 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 15

16 What could be done? 1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible starting in the rich world Ban investment in new coal, oil, and gas capacity from 22 build sun, wind, net, storage, electric cars, and heat pumps instead. 2. Help poor nations grow faster by copying the rapid industrialisation of Japan, Korea and China Build the nation according to plan and not according to profitability - using trade as a tool, not as a religion. 3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs Redistribution is more important than growth in rich nations where 8 % of the workforce is in services. Will require stronger unions, higher taxes on the rich, and limitations on the export of jobs. 4. Further slow population growth especially in the rich world through positive incentives Means more education, better health, and free contraceptives supported by financial incentives for fewer kids. J Randers 16

17 Jobs in secondary sector will decline Secondary sector = manufacturing plus construction as percent of GDP J Randers 17

18 You should act. Now! J Randers 18

Will the world run out of resources?

Will the world run out of resources? CENTRE FOR GREEN GROWTH Will the world run out of resources? Jorgen Randers Professor emeritus Climate strategy BI Norwegian Business School World Resources Forum 217 Geneva, October 24. 217 Jorgen Randers

More information

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years 252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 DIN Gala Berlin November 29 th, 212 12 scenarios for the 21

More information

Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture

Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture With Professor Jorgen Randers J Randers 1 The 2052 Forecast: What will happen in the world to 2052? What should be done? Jorgen Randers Professor

More information

The global energy system to What should universities do?

The global energy system to What should universities do? The global energy system to 2052. What should universities do? Jorgen Randers Professor Emeritus Center for Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School J Randers 1 First UNI SET Clustering Event NTNU,

More information

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years and its regional implications

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years and its regional implications 252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years and its regional implications Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Regional Forum Tampere Regional

More information

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years 2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Jülich Research Center Jülich, November 21, 2013 12 scenarios

More information

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 5 minutes lecture January 1 st, 214 12 scenarios for the 21

More information

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years: The role of the Club of Rome

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years: The role of the Club of Rome 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years: The role of the Club of Rome Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Club of Rome Fundraiser Berlin,

More information

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23:

More information

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 24 Other Non-OECD Asia 18 OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $211 PPP, 213-35 9 Population Income per

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Mark Finley 14th February 216 Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD 1965 2 235 GDP 2

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009 World Energy Outlook 29 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 29 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, 27-23 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other

More information

World Energy Outlook 2009 Key results and messages of the 450 Scenario

World Energy Outlook 2009 Key results and messages of the 450 Scenario World Energy Outlook 29 Key results and messages of the 45 Scenario Marco Baroni Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Workshop Stockholm, 22 June 21 Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Spencer Dale, group chief economist Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding

More information

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy

More information

World Energy Outlook 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director International Energy Agency Cancun, 7 December 2010, IEA day The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic

More information

IEEJ:November 2018 IEEJ2018 China Energy Outlook 2050 CNPC ETRI Tokyo Energy Outlook CNPC ETRI 2018

IEEJ:November 2018 IEEJ2018 China Energy Outlook 2050 CNPC ETRI Tokyo Energy Outlook CNPC ETRI 2018 China CNPC ETRI 217. 11. 13 Tokyo 1 2 2 CONTENT China s Energy Outlook Base Scenario Primary Energy End-use Energy Oil Gas Coal Power Enhanced Policy Scenario Results of different scenarios Base Scenario

More information

Evaluations on the emission reduction efforts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in cost metrics

Evaluations on the emission reduction efforts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in cost metrics November 15, 2016 Japan Pavilion COP22, Marrakech Evaluations on the emission reduction efforts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in cost metrics Keigo Akimoto Systems Analysis Group Research

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum

More information

IEEJ 2019, All rights reserved

IEEJ 2019, All rights reserved 1 Advanced Technologies Scenario Coal declines while oil hits peak in 2030 2 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gtoe Primary energy demand (Solid lines: Advanced Technologies, dashed lines: Reference) Oil Coal Natural gas Renewables

More information

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 35 15 Renewables 3 1 5 216

More information

Outlook for Bulk Commodities John Barber Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. bree.gov.au

Outlook for Bulk Commodities John Barber Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. bree.gov.au Outlook for Bulk Commodities John Barber Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics bree.gov.au Overview Outlook for China Steel and iron ore markets Electricity and thermal coal China s economy is still

More information

Rapid population growth. Ch 24 Human OverPopulation. The Logistic Growth Model. Population Growth. The most populous nations

Rapid population growth. Ch 24 Human OverPopulation. The Logistic Growth Model. Population Growth. The most populous nations Ch 24 Human OverPopulation And overconsumption Rapid population growth What kind of growth? 2 Population Growth The Logistic Growth Model Two models Exponential growth The larger a population becomes,

More information

Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable Energy Resources SDG Conference 2018 UiB, 8-9 February Knowledge for our common future Sustainable energy for all - SDG7 - leave no one behind Energy Resources Finn Gunnar Nielsen Professor Geophysical Institute Outline

More information

Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy

Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable 9 November 2015 Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security Climate pledges shift

More information

Dr. Uwe Remme Wien 23 April 2015

Dr. Uwe Remme Wien 23 April 2015 Dr. Uwe Remme Wien 23 April 2015 Signs of stress in the global energy system Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead Turmoil in the Middle East raises doubts over future oil balance

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Riyadh, 12 January 2010

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Riyadh, 12 January 2010 World Energy Outlook 29 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Riyadh, 12 January 21 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, 27-23 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 24 November 2010

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 24 November 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 24 November 2010 The context: a time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over but is the recovery

More information

Contents. Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications. Energy Outlook 2030 BP 2013

Contents. Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications. Energy Outlook 2030 BP 2013 January 213 Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook

More information

Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective

Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective Professor Mike Bradshaw Geographical Association Annual Conference and Exhibition www.le.ac.uk http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/geography/people/mjb41

More information

Energy markets the short and the long term

Energy markets the short and the long term Energy markets the short and the long term Christof Rühl, Chief Economist, BP BP 2012 Outline The economy A year of disruptions Long term implications Conclusion Global growth: slow and on life support

More information

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Sylvia Elisabeth Beyer International Energy Agency Thessaloniki, 29 June 2016 A 2 C pathway requires more technological

More information

Addressing America s Energy Challenges. Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science of Energy October 14, 2009

Addressing America s Energy Challenges. Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science of Energy October 14, 2009 Addressing America s Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science of Energy October 14, 2009 America s energy challenges (I) Energy security Reliable and economic energy supply Mostly

More information

Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of dynamic economies: South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey

Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of dynamic economies: South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey Renewables International - www.renewablesinternational.net Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of dynamic economies: South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey Bernard

More information

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016 BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 2015: A year of plenty Richard de Caux, head of refining

More information

U.S. Climate Change Policy

U.S. Climate Change Policy U.S. Climate Change Policy Dr. Harlan Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State Joint Meeting of Global Environment Subcommittee and Expert Committee to Study

More information

Energy Security in post-paris Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios for the EU

Energy Security in post-paris Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios for the EU Energy Security in post-paris Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios for the EU Speaker: STOLYAROVA Elena (CNRS, Grenoble Applied Economics Lab) with S. Mima (CNRS, GAEL), S. Mathy (CNRS, GAEL) Content 1. Introduction

More information

BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand

BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand October 213 BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand Kai Dunker, Lead Economist Global Gas Markets Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global

More information

Energy Market Update. Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 2011

Energy Market Update. Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 2011 Energy Market Update Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 211 Agenda Where we ve been Trends in global energy Where we are: The short-term outlook Why has oil been different? Where we are going (or might

More information

Equal Energy Access: The Power of Coal September 14, Gregory H. Boyce Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Peabody Energy

Equal Energy Access: The Power of Coal September 14, Gregory H. Boyce Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Peabody Energy Equal Energy Access: The Power of Coal September 14, 2010 Gregory H. Boyce Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Peabody Energy 1 Equal Energy Access: The Power of Coal Are We Setting the Right Global Priorities?

More information

Energy Efficiency Today: The 2015 Market Report

Energy Efficiency Today: The 2015 Market Report Energy Efficiency Today: The 2015 Market Report Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile ENEA Tyler Bryant International Energy Agency Prologo Energy efficiency

More information

World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties

World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties Nicola Pochettino Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency World Primary Energy Demand 7 000 6 000 Oil Mtoe 5 000 4 000 3 000 Natural gas Coal 2

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Bargo Adibhatla May 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based

More information

Energy efficiency: the first fuel Savings from efficiency 60% of TFC in Mtoe TFC and savings within IEA countries (

Energy efficiency: the first fuel Savings from efficiency 60% of TFC in Mtoe TFC and savings within IEA countries ( Energy Efficiency Today: IEA s 2015 Market Report IEEJ, Tokyo, October 6, 2015 Philippe Benoit, Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division International Energy Agency Energy efficiency: the first

More information

The Energy Challenge

The Energy Challenge The Energy Challenge Farrokh Najmabadi Prof. of Electrical Engineering Director of Center for Energy Research UC San Diego September 26, 2007 With Thanks to Dr. Steve Koonin, BP for energy charts Energy

More information

Are There Limits to Green Growth?

Are There Limits to Green Growth? Are There Limits to Green Growth? Edward B. Barbier Key Points Introduction 1 1 http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/ Green stimulus during the Great Recession 2 3 3 Table 1: Green stimulus during the Great

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Texas A&M Energy Symposium Som Sinha The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends

More information

Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa

Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa Renewables International - www.renewablesinternatonal.net Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa Bernard CHABOT Sustainable

More information

How effective would a global version of the EU policy be?

How effective would a global version of the EU policy be? How effective would a global version of the EU 2-2-2 policy be? JAE EDMONDS AND KATHERINE CALVIN Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute

More information

Energy in Perspective

Energy in Perspective Energy in Perspective BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Christof Rühl Deputy Chief Economist London, 12 June 27 Outline Introduction What has changed? The medium term What is new? 26 in review Conclusion

More information

Energy for Sustainable Development

Energy for Sustainable Development Energy for Sustainable Development Tae Yong Jung Professor, Graduate School of International Studies Ji-Chul Ryu, Ph.D. Senior Fellow (former), Korea Energy Economics Institute November 18 2015 Workshop

More information

Energy Challenges of Our Time. Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist

Energy Challenges of Our Time. Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Energy Challenges of Our Time Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the

More information

ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY Section II: Energy Classes & Topics 6. Energy Demand 7. Energy Supply 8. Case Study: China Where Supply & Demand Meet 9. Energy & The Environment ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY Class

More information

Energy and commodity markets in sustainable perspective

Energy and commodity markets in sustainable perspective EEF.DEL/48/13 13 September 2013 ENGLISH only Energy and commodity markets in sustainable perspective Professor Leonid Grigoryev, Chair of Global Economy HSE Chief Advisor, Analytical Center for the Government

More information

A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018

A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018 A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018 Bent Erik Bakken - Senior Principal Scientist, Deputy Director Energy Transition Programme, Group Technology and Research Bent.erik.bakken@dnvgl.com Well placed

More information

Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division

Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, 2015 Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division Prologue Changing oil & gas prices 25 140 20 120 100 15

More information

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! OECD/IEA OECD/IEA -29-29 World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! Mtoe 18 Other renewables 16 Hydro 14 12 Nuclear 1 Biomass 8 Gas 6 Coal 4 Oil 2 198 199 2 21 22 23

More information

International Energy Outlook 2017

International Energy Outlook 2017 International Energy 217 for Eighth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy s February 14, 218 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

IEEJ:October 2016 IEEJ2016 The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Ja

IEEJ:October 2016 IEEJ2016 The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Ja The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Japan IDR launch Tokyo, 21 September 2016 Long-term energy demand set to grow fast

More information

Deep Decarbonization Pathway Case: Indonesia Energy Sector

Deep Decarbonization Pathway Case: Indonesia Energy Sector 3 rd Annual Meeting Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) Bogor 24-26 November 2014 Deep Decarbonization Pathway Case: Indonesia Energy Sector Ucok WR Siagian, Retno G Dewi and Iwan Hendrawan Center

More information

Dr. Phyllis Yoshida Lead Shepherd, APEC Energy Working Group. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, Europe and the Americas U.S. Department of Energy

Dr. Phyllis Yoshida Lead Shepherd, APEC Energy Working Group. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, Europe and the Americas U.S. Department of Energy Dr. Phyllis Yoshida Lead Shepherd, APEC Energy Working Group Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, Europe and the Americas U.S. Department of Energy Global Energy Challenges Global energy consumption will

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 National Industrial Transportation League William Landuyt Feb 1, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy

More information

Global 2 C Scenarios Norway and the Road Towards the Low Emission Society Arendal, 8. August, 2013

Global 2 C Scenarios Norway and the Road Towards the Low Emission Society Arendal, 8. August, 2013 Global 2 C Scenarios Norway and the Road Towards the Low Emission Society Arendal, 8. August, 2013 Audun Rosland Director - Climate Departement Norwegian Environment Agency Billion tco 2 e 2 C Challenge

More information

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 World Energy Outlook 211 The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention Post-Fukushima,

More information

Energy Market in Asia-Pacific and Canada s Potential for Natural Gas Export. Shahidul Islam

Energy Market in Asia-Pacific and Canada s Potential for Natural Gas Export. Shahidul Islam Energy Market in Asia-Pacific and Canada s Potential for Natural Gas Export Shahidul Islam Objective Examine energy demand in Asia-Pacific Especially natural gas Canada s natural gas situation Potential

More information

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December 2017 Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene

More information

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril EIA's Global Energy Outlook For The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan October 5, 216 Japan By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

More information

2020 Global Energy Forecasts Latest projections of Enerdata s EnerFuture service. April 2007

2020 Global Energy Forecasts Latest projections of Enerdata s EnerFuture service. April 2007 2020 Global Energy Forecasts Latest projections of Enerdata s EnerFuture service April 2007 Agenda > Results at world level > Results at European level > World CO2 emissions > General hypotheses and Oil

More information

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 3 to 23. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the dominant energy source. In

More information

Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model

Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model PMR Technical Workshop on Post-2020 Mitigation Scenarios and Carbon Pricing Modelling Brasilia, 03 February 2016 Contents Introduction GLOCAF model

More information

Energy Efficiency: The Win Win Solution for Energy Security and Sustainable Development

Energy Efficiency: The Win Win Solution for Energy Security and Sustainable Development Energy Efficiency: The Win Win Solution for Energy Security and Sustainable Development Lisa Ryan Energy efficiency and environment division, IEA Presented at the Special event in the context of the Joint

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk October 16, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through

More information

OECD/IEA 2016 OECD/IEA Canberra November 2016

OECD/IEA 2016 OECD/IEA Canberra November 2016 Canberra November 2016 The global energy context today Key points of orientation: Middle East share in global oil production in 2016 at highest level for 40 years Transformation in gas markets deepening

More information

More than nine billion people to feed in 2050

More than nine billion people to feed in 2050 More than nine billion people to feed in 2050 Douglas Southgate, Professor Emeritus southgate.1@osu.edu U.S. Animal Agriculture s Future Role in World Food Production Global Trends in the Food Economy

More information

Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2007

Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2007 Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2007 Presentation by Arne Mogren Head of Climate Policy at Vattenfall Stockholm, 24 September 2007 Vattenfall AB Currently we are diverging CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion

More information

Achieving the New Dawn. May 2018 Nuclear Power Africa: Africa Utility Week

Achieving the New Dawn. May 2018 Nuclear Power Africa: Africa Utility Week Achieving the New Dawn Nuclear generation offers South Africa a low cost clean reliable energy solution allowing the country to achieve long term high sustainable economic growth May 2018 Nuclear Power

More information

Energy Technology Perspectives for a Clean Energy Future

Energy Technology Perspectives for a Clean Energy Future Energy Technology Perspectives for a Clean Energy Future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Madrid, 2 September 212 OECD/IEA 212 Key messages 1. A sustainable energy

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk United States Association for Energy Economics February 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP Energy Outlook 2035 BP Energy Outlook 235 Focus on North America, March 215 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth,

More information

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Signs of stress in the global energy system Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead Turmoil in the Middle East raises

More information

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet Energy demand & GDP Trillion dollars (2012) 50 40 30 20 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 6 000 4 000 GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD 10

More information

An Environmental Outlook to 2050: focussing on Climate Change

An Environmental Outlook to 2050: focussing on Climate Change An Environmental Outlook to 2050: focussing on Climate Change Rob Dellink OECD Environment Directorate Chapter co-authors: Virginie Marchal (ENV), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL), Christa Clapp (ENV), Jean Chateau

More information

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction Simon Upton Environment Director, OECD New York, 21 March 2012 2 Energy efficiency Linking economy and environment Fuel prices Yield efficiency

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop

More information

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years using a mix of models

2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years using a mix of models Version August 6, 2013 Contribution to ISDC Boston, Massachusetts July 22, 2013 2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years using a mix of models Jorgen Randers Professor BI Norwegian Business School

More information

Global warming and the world's other challenges Getting our planetary priorities right

Global warming and the world's other challenges Getting our planetary priorities right Global warming and the world's other challenges Getting our planetary priorities right Bjørn Lomborg www.lomborg.com Indoor air Outdoor air Lead Water+Sanitation Ozone What is the world s biggest environmental

More information

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Dr. Timur Gül, IEA COP23, Bonn, 16 November 2017 Context The SDGs recognise climate change, air pollution and

More information

Growth in China s resource use still has some way to go

Growth in China s resource use still has some way to go Developments in China implications for Australia s resources industries Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) 2014 Growth in China s resource use still

More information

The Future of Global Energy Markets: Implications for Security, Sustainability and Economic Growth

The Future of Global Energy Markets: Implications for Security, Sustainability and Economic Growth The Future of Global Energy Markets: Implications for Security, Sustainability and Economic Growth Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency Delft University of Technology, 20 March

More information

World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: an unsustainable path

World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: an unsustainable path OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2008-2008 The context Soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a drop what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect energy demand & investment?

More information

Electricity and Decarbonization U.S. Perspective

Electricity and Decarbonization U.S. Perspective Electricity and Decarbonization U.S. Perspective Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D. Electric Power Research Institute Implications of Paris Second Workshop Trondheim, Norway 6 March 217 Electricity and Decarbonization

More information

Implications of Abundant Natural Gas

Implications of Abundant Natural Gas Implications of Abundant Natural Gas JAE EDMONDS AND HAEWON MCJEON APRIL 213 April 29, 213 1 Gas and the Global Energy System Gas is has been a growing component of the global energy system for some time.

More information

World Energy Outlook 2004

World Energy Outlook 2004 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency International Energy Symposium, IEEJ Tokyo 16 November 2004 Global Energy Trends: Reference

More information

Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and beyond

Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and beyond Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and beyond 29 November 2010 EU paviljon, Cancun Michel den Elzen A. Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges Context Work funded by: European Commission (ENTEC

More information

APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK

APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2002/09/12 ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2002 1 PRESS RELEASE STUDY OBJECTIVES This Outlook is intended to foster member economies understanding of energy demand

More information

U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali

U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali Dr. Harlan L. Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State IISD Conference on A Way Forward: Canadian and International

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 3 1 Renewables 3 1 216 ET

More information

The Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 David Reed November 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply)

More information

Coal plays an important and growing role in global energy supply and power generation

Coal plays an important and growing role in global energy supply and power generation OECD/IEA - 21 Coal plays an important and growing role in global energy supply and power generation OECD/IEA, 21 Global Primary Energy Supply, 27 Global Electricity Generation, 27 TPES coal s share World

More information