World development towards 2052 What should be done to ensure a more attractive future?
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1 CENTRE FOR GREEN GROWTH World development towards 252 What should be done to ensure a more attractive future? Jorgen Randers Professor emeritus Climate strategy BI Norwegian Business School Innovation Day, Innovation Norway Millennium Hilton Seoul, September 28, 217 Jorgen Randers Randers 1 1
2 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 252, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See J Randers 2
3 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 3
4 Gpersons 1 World population will peak in 24 % / yr 5. 8 Population ( scale) Birth rate 2. 2 Death rate (scale ) 1. g update GAG Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 4
5 Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue its spectacular decline 4.5 Crude birth rate (in % per year) USA Solid: Historical decline in the number of children per woman Dashed: Future decline in the number of children per woman OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA GDP per person (1 $ per person-year) J Randers 5 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, 216
6 GDP growth rate will decline towards zero Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr) CHINA ROW BRISE OECD USA J Randers 6 Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report
7 World GDP will grow more slowly than before T$ / yr 25 2 Population (scale ) Gpersons $/yr 5 4 GDP ( scale) GDP per pperson (scale ) g update GAG Figure 4-3 (modified): Gross Domestic Product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population multiplied with GDP per inhabitant. J Randers 7 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, 216
8 There will be huge regional differences 36 Consumption per person (in 1 PPP US$ per person per year) USA 3 OECD China 24 World 18 BRISE RoW Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 8
9 Efficiency will rise & energy use peak in 23 Gtoe / yr 25 toe / M$ 5 T$ / yr 25 2 GDP (scale ) Energy use ( scale) Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) g update J Randers 9 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212
10 World use of fossil fuels will peak in 225 Gtoe / yr 9. Fossil use Gtoe / yr Fossil use (scale ) Renewable energy use g update Nuclear use Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1
11 Cost of solar will fall more, installations grow Source: J Randers 11
12 Coal - and oil will peak in 22. Gas in 23 Gtoe / yr 9. Fossil use Gtoe / yr Fossil use (scale ) Oil use Coal use Gas use g update Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12
13 CO 2 emissions from energy will peak in 225 GtCO2 / yr 45 tco2 / toe 4. Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) CO2 emissions ( scale) Energy use (scale ) g update Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May J Randers 13
14 The temperature will peak at + 2,5 C in 28 C Temperature rise over 185 (in C) ESCIMO with The 252 forecast CO2 emissions.5 History NOAA g update 216 Source: Randers et al 216, ESCIMO, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:1.5194/esd J Randers 14
15 Unavoidable costs will slow consumption T$ / yr Traditional investment (25% of GDP) Unavoidable spending on environment, climate, repair and inequity GDP Consumption Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 g update GAG 216 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 15
16 What could be done? 1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible starting in the rich world Ban investment in new coal, oil, and gas capacity from 22 build sun, wind, net, storage, electric cars, and heat pumps instead. 2. Help poor nations grow faster by copying the rapid industrialisation of Japan, Korea and China Build the nation according to plan and not according to profitability - using trade as a tool, not as a religion. 3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs Redistribution is more important than growth in rich nations where 8 % of the workforce is in services. Will require stronger unions, higher taxes on the rich, and limitations on the export of jobs. 4. Further slow population growth especially in the rich world through positive incentives Means more education, better health, and free contraceptives supported by financial incentives for fewer kids. J Randers 16
17 Jobs in secondary sector will decline Secondary sector = manufacturing plus construction as percent of GDP J Randers 17
18 You should act. Now! J Randers 18
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