Energy Statistics: Making the Numbers Count
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1 Energy Statistics: Making the Numbers Count IFEG Autumn Seminar, 5 th November 29 Paul Appleby, BP Group Economics Team Working with Energy Statistics The key challenges. Finding relevant & reliable data Presenting it in a way that helps decision-makers Need to understand the data, but also understand the audience.
2 The BP Statistical Review of World Energy Published annually (June) in hard-copy and on-line First published 1952 Provides earliest review of global energy developments for the previous year Draws on official government sources and published data Data compiled with assistance from a team at Heriot- Watt University And available free of charge! Some Basic Questions How big? (volume or value) How is it changing? trends cycles shocks and shifts How is it related to other variables? causes and consequences stocks and flows supply and demand balances
3 Renewable Energy Wind capacity Solar PV capacity GW GW 15 US Germany 15 US Germany Spain China Spain Japan 1 RoW 1 RoW Mexico North Sea Sources: Includes data from BTM Consult, IEA, EPIA and EurObserver Renewable Capacity Additions 28 Wind, Top 5 Solar PV, Top USA China Spain India Germany Spain Germany USA Italy Korea
4 Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output y-o-y growth Nuclear Hydro 6% 5% RoW China 4% 3% 2% 1-year average 1% % -1% -2% OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption Mtoe 6 OECD Primary energy Non-OECD Mtoe 3 OECD Oil Non-OECD Mtoe Gas OECD Non-OECD Mtoe Coal OECD Non-OECD
5 Oil Consumption Growth Mb/d 1.6 World.8 China OECD Non-OECD World Source: Includes data from IEA Oil Consumption Growth in 28 Mb/d 1..5 Oil exporters and importers 1-year average Tax and subsidy regimes Oil exporters Non-OECD oil importers OECD oil importers ex US US Subsidizers Taxers
6 Global Oil Reserves Bn bbls 14 OPEC FSU OECD Other Other Oil Sands Reserves-to-Production Ratios R/P (years) 14 OPEC FSU Other Note: Showing R/P ratios of over 2 years and reserves over 2 billion barrels. OPEC World FSU Other
7 Main Oil Production Changes Mb/d Decrease Increase Mexico Nigeria US Non-OPEC FSU Norway UK OPEC Russia Canada Brazil Kazakhstan Kuw ait Angola Qatar Iraq Saudi Arabia OPEC Adjusts to Falling Consumption OPEC-12 crude oil production y-o-y, Mb/d 29 2 Global consumption and production y-o-y, Mb/d Production Consumption -4 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9-4 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 Source: Includes data from US DOE
8 Changes in Production and Inventories Global oil production changes Mb/d OECD commercial inventories Million barrels range OPEC -12 crude Non- OPEC Source: Includes data from IEA OPEC OPEC Non- OPEC 23 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov US Gas Production Bcm 6 Gas production Production vs. rig count outside Bcm Gulf of Mexico Conventional gas Non-conventional gas Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Baker Hughes Gas rig count
9 Industrial Gas Demand Follows the Economy US Industrial Production and Industry Sector Gas Demand y-o-y change, % Industrial gas consumption Industrial Production index -18 Jan-7 Nov-7 Sep-8 Jul-9 Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Federal Reserve US Gas Market Dynamics at Play Inventories Rise Gas Rig Count Falls Bcf Range Number of rigs Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Baker Hughes
10 Fuel Switching in Power Generation 25-8 Gas Share UK gas vs. coal 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Gas is not competitive Gas is competitive 2% Gas competitiveness vs. coal ( /MWh) Sources: BERR, Platts, McCloskey, European Climate Exchange Gas Share of Total Primary Energy 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% Brazil Spain Turkey Egypt South Korea cagr % 7.8% 9.5% 5.7% 5.6% 15% 1% 5% %
11 Trade as Share of Total Production Gas Oil 7% Share of production 7% Share of production 6% Pipeline LNG 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 74% of gas consumed where it is produced in 27 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % Data sources: Cedigaz, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 28 World Fuel Shares Share of global primary energy consumption 1% 8% Coal 6% 4% 2% Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro % Source: Data before 1955 from Jenkins, G. Oil Economist's Handbook (1989)
12 World Oil Production Million barrels per day Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Europe FSU S&C America North America Source: Data before 1965 from DeGolyer and MacNaughton, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (1997); API "Petroleum Facts & Figures" (1931) Making the Numbers Count Energy statistics have impact when they address real and topical issues they are part of a coherent story they test our mental models
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