CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES

Transcription

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNEXES

2 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK 5 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK 7 ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 8 WATER-ENERGY NEXUS 9 RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 10 COMPETITIVENESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY 11 INTEGRATION OF VARIABLE RENEWABLES IN POWER SYSTEMS 12 ANNEXES

3 Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 21 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 29 1 Introduction and scope Defining the scenarios Developing the scenarios Inputs to the modelling International prices and technology costs 45 2 Overview 57 Ten questions on the future of energy Has the world broken the link between rising economic activity, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions? Which fuels and technologies are poised to do well in the new energy order? Are there limits to growth for renewable energy? Staying below the 2 o C climate change limit: what would be required? What can the energy sector do to reduce air pollution? Energy investment is capital heading where it is needed? How might the main risks to energy security evolve over the coming decades? Are we on the path to achieving universal access to energy? Changing places: is global spending on energy subsidies shifting from fossil fuels and in favour of renewable energy sources? Does energy reform point a new way forward for Mexico? Oil market outlook Recent market and policy developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Medium-term dynamics Long-term scenarios World Energy Outlook 2016

4 3.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Production Refining Trade Investment trends and risks Upstream investment needs: mind the gap? The impact of climate targets on upstream oil assets Natural gas market outlook Recent market and policy developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Medium-term dynamics Long-term scenarios A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Regional demand and supply insights Trade Investment Coal market outlook Recent market and policy developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Medium-term dynamics Long-term scenarios A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Demand Supply Regional insights Power sector outlook Recent policy and market developments Trends to 2040 by scenario Accelerating the transition: power generation in the 450 Scenario A closer look at the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand Capacity and generation Investment End-user electricity prices 265 Table of Contents 15

5 6.3.5 Carbon-dioxide emissions from the power sector Regional insights Energy efficiency outlook Introduction Current status of energy efficiency Recent and historical trends Energy efficiency regulation and prices Outlook for energy efficiency Sectoral trends Multiple benefits Focus: Electric motor-driven systems Introduction Energy and emissions trends for electric motor systems Investments in energy efficiency in electric motor systems Policy recommendations for electric motor systems Energy and climate change Introduction Recent developments NDCs and the energy sector: emissions trends in the New Policies Scenario What is in the Nationally Determined Contributions? Emissions trends in the New Policies Scenario From NDCs to 2 C: steps in the 450 Scenario Steps in the power sector Steps in the transport sector Steps in the industry sector Steps in the buildings sector Revisiting temperature thresholds after COP Making the temperature goal tangible: implications for CO 2 budgets and emissions trajectories The energy sector to 2040 in a well below 2 C world The energy sector in a 1.5 C world Water-energy nexus Overview The state of global water resources World Energy Outlook 2016

6 9.1.2 Water demand by sector Water for energy Overview Future water requirements for energy production Impact of climate variability on hydropower Energy for water Overview Energy requirements for water in the New Policies Scenario Measures to save energy Stress points and solutions Potential stress points Policy solutions 393 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Renewable energy outlook Introduction Recent developments Policy developments Market developments Overview of trends by scenario Outlook in the New Policies Scenario Electricity Heat Transport Outlook in the 450 Scenario Electricity Heat Transport Competitiveness of renewable energy Introduction Electricity Technology costs Value of renewables-based electricity 458 Table of Contents 17

7 Competitiveness of renewables-based electricity Support to make renewables-based electricity financially attractive Heat Technology costs Competitiveness of renewables-based heat Support to make heat from renewables financially attractive Transport Technology costs Competitiveness of renewables in transport Support to make renewables in transport financially attractive Cost effectiveness of renewables Energy security Air pollution Affordability Integration of variable renewables in power systems Overview Context Global trends of wind and solar PV in the New Policies Scenario and the 450 Scenario Characteristics of variable renewables and the integration challenge Integration measures System-friendly deployment of variable renewables Flexible power plants Energy storage Demand-side response Transmission and distribution networks Country case studies: integrating VRE in the 450 Scenario United States European Union India Policy and market framework Unlock the flexibility in the existing power system Prioritise VRE projects that are of high value to the power system Enable new investments needed to increase flexibility and ensure market participation World Energy Outlook 2016

8 ANNEXES Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 547 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 627 Annex C. Definitions 639 Annex D. References 653 Table of Contents 19

9 List of figures Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Selected carbon pricing schemes in place as of mid Changes in GDP and energy demand in selected countries and regions, Trends in oil and coal prices and US dollar value Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario Natural gas prices by region in the New Policies Scenario Steam coal prices by region in the New Policies Scenario Recent cost trends for selected technologies 53 Figures for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 Global GDP, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions trajectories by scenario Energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Change in total final consumption in China in the New Policies Scenario Global primary energy mix in the New Policies Scenario Shares of global demand met by renewable energy in selected sectors in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Evolution of the power generation mix in the 450 Scenario Global primary energy demand and related CO 2 emissions by scenario Emissions intensity of global electricity generation in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Indicative global energy sector emissions budgets and trajectories for different decarbonisation pathways Estimated anthropogenic emissions of the main air pollutants by source, Change in energy demand and energy-related air pollutants in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, today to Premature deaths attributable to global air pollution in the New Policies and Clean Air Scenarios, Cumulative global power sector investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Diversity of the primary energy mix by scenario and selected region Global fossil-fuel trade in the New Policies Scenario Share of electricity in the growth in final energy consumption in selected end-use sectors in the New Policies Scenario Global energy use in the water sector and water use in the energy sector in the New Policies Scenario Evolution of access to clean cooking and to electricity by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Share of solid biomass in residential energy use by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Comparison of WEO-2004 projections for energy access with estimates for I World Energy Outlook 2016

10 2.21 Estimates for global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies and subsidies for renewables Oil production in Mexico in the New Policies Scenario Power generation mix in Mexico in the New Policies Scenario Selected indicators for Mexico in the No Reform Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 World oil demand and price by scenario Growth in international shipping activity and fuel consumption in the New Policies Scenario Electric vehicles in circulation in the New Policies Scenario Average payback times for electric vehicles in the New Policies Scenario Change in global oil product demand in the New Policies Scenario IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index and oil price Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario US tight oil production as a function of estimated resources Sensitivity of US tight oil production in 2025 to oil prices and resource availability Change in Iraq and Iran oil production in the New Policies Scenario Crude oil trade in major regions in the New Policies Scenario Conventional crude oil resources receiving approval worldwide Loss of oil production from post-peak fields resulting from the drop in investment in Capital investment into oil project types starting between 2010 and 2015 by selected country Rates of production after approval for various project types Global supply outlook from selected sources in the New Policies Scenario Global conventional crude oil project approvals required to fill supply-demand gap in Global oil demand and observed decline in current supply sources in the 450 Scenario Global oil demand in a Disjointed Transition Case 159 Figures for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Liquefaction capacity by key region World natural gas demand by scenario Change in gas demand in selected regions in the 450 Scenario Gas demand by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario World gas demand growth by sector in the New Policies Scenario Levelised cost of electricity generation for existing and new coal and gas plant by key region, Annual average running cost of a heat pump and a gas boiler in non energy-intensive industry in the European Union US shale gas production as a function of the resource estimate US shale gas production as a function of the price trajectory Evolution of key well parameters in the Marcellus shale gas play US power sector gas demand as a function of the coal price 183 Table of Contents 20-II

11 4.12 Natural gas demand by sector and supply by country in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas imports in the European Union by exporter and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario Main shale gas resource-holders and Latin America s share in global shale gas resources, end Natural gas production by country and gas type in South America and Mexico in the New Policies Scenario Change in gas imports by region in the New Policies Scenario Selected global gas trade flows in the New Policies Scenario Global gas trade by exporter in the New Policies Scenario Global regasification capacity by technology Change in gas production by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative global gas investment by component and key region in the New Policies Scenario, Figures for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 Global coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario Average OECD steam coal import price and global coal trade by scenario Growth of global GDP, coal demand and CO 2 emissions from coal use in the New Policies Scenario Change in coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario Global coal demand by key sector in the New Policies Scenario Global coal trade by exporter in the New Policies Scenario FOB cash costs and market volume for global seaborne steam coal trade Change in coal prices in local currencies and US dollars Steel output by production route in China and the rest of the world in the New Policies Scenario Profit margin of a new Chinese coal plant and an existing European coal plant, Chinese coal trade in the New Policies Scenario Average costs of steam coal delivered to southern coastal China by origin, Electricity generation by source and power sector CO 2 emissions in the United States in the New Policies Scenario Average cash-margins of existing US coal mining capacities in the New Policies Scenario Incremental coal demand to 2040 by key sector in India in the New Policies Scenario Major exporters of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario Indicative FOB cash-cost range by key exporter and average coal price by type, Major importers of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 239 Figures for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario Change in global electricity demand in 2040 in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario III World Energy Outlook 2016

12 6.3 Global electricity generation by fuel and scenario Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion in the power sector by scenario Growth in generation to 2040 by low-carbon technology in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Global annual capacity additions of low-carbon technologies in the 450 Scenario Growth in global electricity demand by sector and electricity s share of sector demand in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand in buildings by equipment and region in the New Policies Scenario Change in electricity demand by sector and region in the New Policies Scenario, Global installed generation capacity in the New Policies Scenario Global generation by fuel and demand in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative power sector investment in the New Policies Scenario, End-user electricity prices in the New Policies Scenario Carbon intensity of electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in the United States in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in Japan in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in China in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in India in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in Southeast Asia in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand and generation in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario 281 Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Change in global energy-related CO 2 emissions by driver Income per capita and energy intensity by selected region, Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory energy efficiency regulation Energy prices and energy efficiency levels by sector, Average annual change in global final energy consumption by driver in the New Policies Scenario Energy intensity in selected countries/regions in the New Policies Scenario Share of energy expenditures as a call on global household income World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement by scenario Global total final electricity consumption by end-uses, Illustration of two industrial electric motor-driven systems: (a) normal and (b) efficient Illustration of energy-saving options in electric motor systems Final electricity consumption in motor-driven systems in the New Policies Scenario and 450 Scenario 303 Table of Contents 20-IV

13 7.13 Share of global industrial electricity use in motor systems in the New Policies Scenario Global industrial electricity consumption by motor efficiency class in the New Policies Scenario Change in global demand in industrial electric motor-driven systems Efficiency improvements in global industrial electric motor-driven systems in 2040 compared with today Global cumulative investment in electric motor-driven systems in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Figures for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Change in global economic output, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions Recent global decarbonisation trends in the energy sector Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region in the New Policies Scenario Emissions intensity of economic growth in the New Policies Scenario Emissions intensity per unit of primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Global CO 2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Growth in global electricity generation and related CO 2 emissions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Global CO 2 emissions savings in the power sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Global transport fuel demand in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Global direct CO 2 emissions savings in the industry sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Global direct and indirect CO 2 emissions savings in the buildings sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Uncertainty in associating remaining CO 2 budgets to probabilities of temperature rises in Pathways for energy-related CO 2 emissions under different CO 2 budgets, with and without BECCS Global energy-related CO 2 emissions by selected sector in the 450 Scenario, Global fossil-fuel demand and low-carbon power generation in the 450 Scenario and a well below 2 C case, Energy sector CO 2 emission pathways consistent with a 1.5 C temperature rise 345 Figures for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Global water demand by sector to Water withdrawals in the energy sector, Water use for electricity generation by cooling technology Water use for primary energy production Global water use by the energy sector by fuel and power generation type in the New Policies Scenario, Global water use by the energy sector by scenario Difference in annual water availability between a severe and moderate climate pathway in Latin America in V World Energy Outlook 2016

14 9.8 Energy use for various processes in the water sector Processes of the water sector Electricity consumption in the water sector by process and region, Water supply by source by region, Water losses by region, Typical energy consumption in a wastewater treatment facility Energy demand for desalination and re-use, Electricity consumption in the water sector by process Additional desalination and increased electricity demand, Electricity savings in the water sector by process in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Share of withdrawal and consumption by fuel or technology and total water intensity by scenario, 2014 and Electricity consumption and intensity in the water sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2014 and Water and electricity prices by selected country, Water production from seawater desalination in the Middle East and North Africa by input fuel and scenario 392 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Figures for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 World share of renewable energy by sector and type, Renewable energy policy coverage by country and type Solar PV targets and deployment in China and the United States Average renewables investment as a share of GDP ( ) and renewable energy jobs in selected regions, World renewables-based power capacity additions by type and share of total additions Index of solar PV unit investment costs in selected markets Share of global demand met by renewables in selected sectors in The New Policies and 450 Scenarios Share of renewables by use in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, World power generation capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario Power capacity additions by region and type in the New Policies Scenario Change in total electricity demand and renewables-based power generation in the New Policies Scenario, Mini- and off-grid electricity generation for electricity access in a universal access scenario, Growth in industrial heat demand by fuel and region in the New Policies Scenario, Space and water heating demand in buildings by region in the New Policies Scenario, Share of final energy use in transport by sub-sector and fuel in the New Policies Scenario, Table of Contents 20-VI

15 10.16 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario and additional CO 2 abatement by measure in the 450 Scenario World power sector CO 2 emissions by scenario and fuel Annual power capacity additions for wind and solar PV by region in the 450 Scenario Share of electricity supply from low-carbon sources in selected regions in the 450 Scenario, Change in heat consumption by fuel in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Share of households using solar water heaters by country and scenario, 2014 and Demand for ethanol and biodiesel by region in the 450 Scenario Shares of renewable and nuclear energy in total primary energy supply in the Nordic countries, Decarbonisation of district heating through taxation in Sweden Per-capita CO 2 emissions by sector in the Nordic region 440 Figures for Chapter 11: Competitiveness of renewable energy 11.1 Key terms for renewable energy projects Projected and actual global weighted average capital costs for solar PV, Average levelised costs of electricity by technology and region for projects completed in Auction energy price versus LCOE for the same solar project Sensitivity of the LCOE of solar PV to varying parameters Global wind and solar PV capacity additions and capital cost reductions across regions by scenario to Historic and projected average capital costs for utility-scale solar PV in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Average levelised costs of electricity by region, technology and scenario, Average revenues received for utility-scale renewables by technology and scenario in selected regions, Percentage of hours in the year with simulated market prices near zero by selected regions in the 450 Scenario, Indicative evolution of the value of distributed renewables-based electricity consumed onsite Average LCOEs and revenues for wind and solar PV in selected regions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Share of generation from new renewable energy projects that do not require subsidies by technology in the New Policies Scenario Generation from solar PV and wind power installations by subsidy level in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios Renewables-based electricity support and cumulative total generation in New Policies and 450 Scenarios Estimated average subsidy rates for new solar PV and wind power plants in the New Policies Scenario Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2015 and VII World Energy Outlook 2016

16 11.18 Change in the cost of a solar water heater in the New Policies Scenario, Typical levelised cost of heat production in industrial boilers by fuel in selected regions Annual expenditure for space heating options and demand by fuel in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario, Annual expenditure for water heating equipment in India in the New Policies Scenario, Sensitivity analysis of levelised cost of advanced biofuels production Levelised costs of biofuels production by feedstock and ex-tax price of fuel for selected regions Evolution of subsidies for liquid biofuels in the New Policies Scenario Share of domestically sourced energy supply in selected regions by scenario, 2014 and Total costs of power supply in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, Total residential electricity bills in 2040 by region in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 493 Figures for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Share of wind and solar PV in total electricity generation by region in the New Policies and the 450 Scenarios Electricity load profile on a summer day and impact on hours and volume of annual curtailment in the absence of integration measures in the United States in the 450 Scenario, Share of heat production by technology in Nordic district heating networks in the 450 Scenario, 2014 and Installed capacity by technology as a share of average power demand for selected regions in the 450 Scenario, Storage technology characteristics and global installed capacity in Installed capacity of energy storage systems in selected regions in the 450 Scenario Comparison between the LCOEs of 50 MW CSP and PV plants with battery storage facilities, 2016 and Illustrative demand-side integration measures Technical potential of demand-side response by region in the 450 Scenario Illustrative load curves by sector for a weekday in February in the European Union compared with the observed load curve by ENTSO-E, Hourly capacity factor of wind power in selected regions, Extent of aggregation of electricity demand profiles and behavioural patterns on load curves in Spain and Sweden Total global power generation and T&D investment in the 450 Scenario, Electricity trade in Northern Europe, 2015 and Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in the United States in the 450 Scenario, Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in the United States in the 450 Scenario, Table of Contents 20-VIII

17 12.17 Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in the United States in the 450 Scenario, Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in India in the 450 Scenario, Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in India in the 450 Scenario, Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in India in the 450 Scenario, List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 CO 2 price assumptions in selected regions by scenario Real GDP growth assumptions by region Population assumptions by region Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 45 Tables for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative global energy supply investment by type and scenario, Population without access to modern energy services in the New Policies Scenario Recent fossil-fuel subsidy reforms in selected countries 98 Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Electric vehicle deployment targets and policy initiatives by country Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario IX World Energy Outlook 2016

18 3.9 Refining capacity and runs by region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario 151 Tables for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Natural gas demand by region in New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 196 Tables for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 World coal demand, production and trade by scenario Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Remaining recoverable coal resources, end Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative coal supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, Tables for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario World electricity generation by source and scenario Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2015 to mid Tables for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Greenhouse-gas emissions reduction goals in selected NDCs Emissions and policy trends in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Key elements in a well below 2 C pathway, Tables for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Energy-related water withdrawals and consumption, Energy-related water withdrawals and consumption in the New Policies Scenario 361 Table of Contents 20-X

19 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Tables for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 World renewables consumption by scenario Renewable heat options in industry and buildings 422 Tables for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Overview of differences between wind power and solar PV Market and technology enablers of demand-side response 515 List of boxes Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Key provisions of the Paris climate change agreement Impact of exchange rate fluctuations Are we in a Low Oil Price Scenario? 46 Boxes for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 China s economic transition gathers pace Are electric vehicles about to make their move? Exploring the implications of a well below 2 C or a 1.5 C emissions pathway Solutions to air pollution are well known, but in the New Policies Scenario the problem remains far from solved Could oil investment fall short even in a 450 Scenario? Looking back at looking ahead: how did previous Outlooks see the access situation today? Are energy price reforms in the Middle East here to stay? Assessing the value of change: No Reform Case 104 Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Producer strategies and the oil outlook Beyond EEDI: how to contain oil demand and emissions growth in international shipping Putting a value on the shift in oil demand trajectory 157 Boxes for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Fugitive methane emissions: a rising concern Shale well productivity gains: endless rise or diminishing returns? How floating storage and regasification unlocks new markets 198 Boxes for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 The role of CCS in the 450 Scenario The impact of exchange rates on coal prices China s coal plant conundrum Coal use and air quality XI World Energy Outlook 2016

20 Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Quantifying electricity consumption in motor systems 300 Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Raising ambitions towards 2030 an achievable set of policy goals towards the global stocktake of mitigation efforts Overshooting temperature thresholds 335 Boxes for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Glossary of energy and water terms Quantifying the energy needs of the water sector Energy neutrality: an end to wasting energy on wastewater Is concentrating solar power the solution for the water sector in the Middle East and North Africa? 391 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Boxes for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 Renewable energy resources and technologies Bioenergy must be sustainable Geothermal and solar heat use in the food and beverages sector 434 Boxes for Chapter 11: Competitiveness of renewable energy 11.1 Key concepts in evaluating renewable energy Power plant cost terminology Auction bid prices versus LCOEs in the World Energy Outlook Solar PV versus solar thermal how is a roof best used? 481 Boxes for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Characteristics of wind and solar PV WEM hourly model: digging beyond the annual data District heating networks offer flexibility for VRE integration Thermal energy storage increases the value of CSP Assessing the potential of demand-side integration Transmission expands the potential of variable renewables in Northern Europe 523 List of spotlights Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS How does water fit into the energy mix? 90 Will upstream capital costs bounce back? 129 Could cutthroat competition prolong the coal industry crisis? 220 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Bringing power to the people through distributed renewables 419 Policies to support a more rapid shift to renewables the Nordic case 437 Table of Contents 20-XII