Gas in Power Generation Sector, the story as told by Jodi-Gas database.
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1 1 GECF Gas in Power Generation Sector, the story as told by Jodi-Gas database. Mohamed Arafat Data Bank Analyst, GECF 14th Regional JODI Training Workshop 9-11 November 2016, Moscow, Russia
2 2 Agenda Why Power Sector? Drivers of gas consumption in power sector? USA : Shale gas and Coal-to-Gas switching. Brazil : Gas & Hydro in power generation. Data Integration : gas & Renewables Asia : Top consuming countries Africa : Egypt power sector Europe: Solar power in Italy
3 Why Power Sector? 3 Power generation was the main area of growth in natural gas consumption and expected to continue to lead the growth in the future.
4 4 Drivers of gas consumption in power sector? Economic growth Competition from Coal, Renewables, Environmental policies and market regulations Energy Prices Supply Availability Efficiency Gains Others
5 5 United States In United States, gas-fired generation shot up by almost 20% in 2015 (IEA MTGMR 2016)
6 6 United States Shale gas revolution, cheap gas, switching from coal to gas in power sector. Planned Retirement of coal-fired power plants, increase the share of gas. Deployment of renewables : solar and wind. Gas consumption will stagnate in the future. Coal is very important in power generation in many countries, including China, India, Indonesia. Jodi potential expansion to coal, Jodi-Coal.
7 7 Brazil: Electricity from Hydro - IRENA The chart shows Electricity Generation (GWh), not the Installed Capacity (Mw). In 2011, 428 TWh of electricity from hydro compared to 373 TWh in 2014 (decline) A multi-year drought, lowered the electricity generated from hydro and increased gas-fired generation.
8 Brazil : Gas Consumption in Power Generation Jodi-Gas 8 In March 2011, 347 MMcm of Gas Consumed in Power Generation compared to 1580 MMcm in March 2015 Brazil imports gas from Bolivia, a GECF member country. More complete data will help to better understand the behaviour of gas imports and consumption in Brazil.
9 9 Data Integration Integrate data from different sources is a must to see the full picture. On monthly basis, Jodi-Gas data is being processed and loaded to GECF Data Exchange Center (DEC). So DEC users can benefit form the built in data analysis and dashboards. Integrate Jodi-Gas data with other data available in DEC, (IRENA power data) Macroeconomic Indicators & forecast from IMF others
10 Asia : Gas in Power Sector 10
11 11 Japan Before Fukushima, 26% of the electricity came from Nuclear power. After nuclear power plants shutdown, the LNG imports increased by 20% for consumption in gas-fired power plants. The largest LNG importer in the world, with share 35% of the global trade. Japan returning nuclear power? How fast? New safety regulations? Public opposition? = Uncertainty. Increased deployment in renewables Will lead to lower gas consumption in power sector and lower LNG imports.
12 12 Asia : Gas in Power Sector China : Gas consumption data in power sector is not available in Jodi-Gas database yet. 60% of electricity comes from coal-fired plants. For air pollution reasons china will accelerate switching from coal-fired to gas-fired power generation. As per IEA MTGMR, Beijing aims to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2017, and to build four major gas-fired co-generation units. Iran: data gaps, for example no data available for the period from Aug 2011 to May 2014.
13 India 13
14 14 Asia : Gas in Power Sector India : Because of low utilization rate of its installed gasfired power generation capacity (was 20% in 2014), it consumes around 1 bcm per month. Price-driven increase in gas consumption in power sector? IEA : the fertilizer sector - which accounts for around one-third of total Indian gas consumption will drive robust growth in industrial gas usage. Should Jodi-Gas questionnaire expand to cover consumption in sectors like industry, petrochemicals, transportation,? Indonesia: the cheap domestic coal is dominating the power sector, gas consumption is around 0.75 Bcm a month.
15 15 Africa Top Consumers Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria are the three biggest gas producers & consumers in Africa. The three countries are GECF members.
16 16 70% of the electricity generated in Egypt and almost all electricity in Algeria is from gas-fired power plants. Egypt : Supply shortages, LNG Imports : 2 FSRU, New discovery : Zohr offshore filed (30 tcf), switch to coal in power generation and industries like cement? MENA : Gas subsidy reforms, raise gas and electricity prices. (gulf states & Egypt for example)
17 17 Egypt : Consumption by Sector Egypt: the increase in power sector consumption came at the expense of industrial sector.
18 18 Europe: Gas in Power Sector - Italy : imports pipeline gas from Algeria and Libya - Germany : a major importer of Russian gas. - Netherlands is a gas producing country.
19 19 Italy : Installed Renewables Capacity (IRENA) Germany, Italy and Spain are leaders in renewables. In 2011, there was a big increase in installed solar capacity in Italy.
20 Italy : Electricity Generated from Renewables (IRENA) 20 Italy electricity generated from Solar PV increased dramatically since 2011.
21 Mexico 21
22 22 Mexico Switch from the expensive oil-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants. Plans to build pipelines to import gas from US. Mexico s energy market reforms: End the monopoly in NG transportation and marketing in Mexico. Attract foreign investment.
23 Thank You 23
24 24
25 25 Russia Economic contraction, mild weather Decline in gas consumption for power generation: More efficient gas units More nuclear capacity
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