Beyond the Chicken and the Egg
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1 Beyond the Chicken and the Egg How will Singapore Consolidate its Position as a LNG Bunkering Hub in Southeast Asia? Alexander Dodge PhD Candidate in Innovation Studies Department of Geography Trondheim, Norway
2 1 of 3 Case Studies 1: Beyond the Chicken and the Egg: How will Singapore Consolidate its position as a LNG Bunkering Hub in Southeast Asia? 2: Collaborating for a better future? Energy Security and Small-Scale LNG development in Indonesia. 3: Lessons from Norway? Can the Norwegian Experience in Small-Scale LNG be translated to a Southeast Asian Context? 2
3 Research Objective Building a qualitative and systematic analysis of the development of a LNG Bunkering Hub in Singapore. A merging study on Cognitive and Sociopolitical Processes Cognitive: How do actors interpret, categorize, translate and communicate knowledge in order to enroll others in new ventures? Sociopolitical: How do key stakeholders, opinion leaders, and government officials legitimatize a venture? 3
4 Methodology I have already conducted a series of interviews with informants from Rolls Royce, DNV GL, Innovation Norway, Gaspartners and NUS. In addition I have analyzed secondary data such as news articles, websites and reports. I will continue to interview decision makers and stakeholders in a LNG Bunkering Hub, including bunker operators, suppliers, and end-users. 4
5 How is this done? Cognitive By determining the level of knowledge and awareness about LNG Bunkering among potential stakeholders. By comparing perceived barriers and opportunities among actors, and determine where coordination problems exist. By determining how stakeholders build trust and legitimacy through their activities Sociopolitical By determining the impact of political events and initiatives on actor strategies. 5
6 What does this have to do with Small-Scale LNG? Small-Scale LNG (SSLNG) is a relatively new concept, that lacks a common set of rules, norms and beliefs. Information is dispersed and unclear, actors have yet to form stabilized networks and decision making is hindered by uncertainty. Stakeholders lack a common cognitive framework in which cooperation and common decision making regarding SSLNG projects is possible. I argue that as actors share knowledge, and coordinate value chains, then they move closer to a common cognitive framework. This then has ripples effects along existing production networks which give legitimacy to LNG bunkering. Uncertainty regarding global oil prices, LNG price indexing and trading, and impact of future regulations are barriers towards decision making. However sociopolitical events such as the issuing of LNG bunker licensees may give legitimacy to LNG bunkering in Singapore. 6
7 7 Potential Small-Scale LNG Value Chain
8 Is LNG the Fuel of the Future? From January 2015 the international maritime organization placed stricter Sulphur Oxide emission requirements in Emission Control Areas (North America and Baltic Sea). By 2020 the Sulphur content globally will be set at 0.5 (5,000 ppm). 63 LNG-fuelled ships (excluding LNG carriers) already operate worldwide, while another 76 newbuildings are confirmed (as of May 2015) (DNV GL) LNG Bunkering will require a small-scale LNG value chain to ensure distribution and supply 8
9 Chicken and the Egg? A major barrier to the use of LNG as a bunkering fuel is the lack of infrastructure, which creates uncertainty regarding the long-term availability of fuel. Ship owners will not invest in ships running on LNG if the infrastructure is not in place, and energy providers will not finance infrastructure without first securing customers. This conundrum is often referred to as the chicken and the egg problem 9
10 Why we need to go beyond the Chicken and the Egg The Problem with the Chicken and the Egg concept is that it places the weight of the decision-making on either party. Either the ship-owners need to start building LNG fueled vessels, or bunker operators need to start building the infrastructure. However my research shows that SSLNG is more likely to develop as a iterative process where bunker operators and ship owners develop a common cognitive framework for decision making as SSLNG slowly gains legitimacy from stakeholders, government officials, and opinion leaders. It is also important to analyze developments in terms of wider industrial systems in order to understand the real barriers that current systems such as long-term take or pay contracts, or oil indexation. 10
11 Other barriers One informant argued that investing is likely to be slow as the offshore industry is in a downturn due to lowering oil prices. Therefore new ship building may be lower in the coming years. Hence a lower market for LNG fueled ships. LNG has lost some of its economical value as the oil prices have lowered, but according to one informant there are still cost benefits from lower operational and maintenance costs. In addition future regulations and LNG availability may make the investment worth while in a long term perspective. Other concerns are the price of assurance of fuels, training burdens, safety, and resale of vessels (Since the vessel can only be sold to where LNG is available). LNG bunkering prices are usually paid by charterer which lowers the incentives for ship owners regarding lower bunkering prices for LNG fueled ships. 11
12 Opportunities One informant argued that customers which have more insurance around infrastructure that is coming online, and have defined areas of operation can become good pilot projects which would push the industry forward LNG engines could essentially future-proof vessels for future regulations. However the governments need to accept LNG bunkering by truck. One informant argued that as soon as that happens the pilot projects can be undertaken. 12
13 Case Study: LNG Bunkering in Singapore Due to the Energy Security situation regarding gas pipelines from Indonesia and Malaysia, Singapore built a LNG terminal for a independent supply of Gas. 6 years ago Innovation Norway and DNV GL initiated a joint industry project to outline the development of a LNG Bunkering Hub in Singapore. An analysis of LNG bunkering in Norway, which has currently over 60 LNG fueled ships, shows that it started with ferries and other vessels with route to route shipping. One of the findings was to outline the possibility of LNG bunkering starting with LNG fueled harbor tugs. Harbor tugs are likely to benefit as their routes are defined, and will benefit from lower bunkering fees for LNG ships. IMO has agreed on a global sulfur cap of 3.5% in 2012 with a gradual reduction to 0.5% effective in Emission Control Areas (ECA) in North America and Europe in 2015 can not use fuel of more than 1000 ppm sulfur. Regulations may push ship-owners to switch to LNG bunkering. 13 MPA has issued lower bunkering fees for LNG fueled ships in the Singapore harbor and is funding up to 12 million for the construction of 6 LNG fueled vessels. Keppel is currently bidding for the MPA funds.
14 Case Study (Continued) Keppel has designed LNG fueled Harbor Tugs. Keppel Shipyards is waiting for the go ahead from Keppel Smit (operator) to build the LNG tugs, therefore the tugs are still on the drawing table. A simple solution for the LNG bunkering of the LNG fueled Tugboats is to run a truck loading bay at the SLNG import terminal and deliver the gas directly to the tugboats. Gaspartners has negotiated with Keppel regarding the supply of Isocontianers as fuel tanks for the tugboats. However they lack the loading arm at the SLNG terminal for the filling of the Isocontainers. However SLNG has yet to implement a solution to build the capacity for LNG tank trucks to load one of the current import terminals. However there is uncertainty regarding interrupting the process of fueling the gas stations. Large consumers has a certain quantity they need delivered and the costs for the operation of tapping out LNG needs to be determined. Therefore the project gets extended. Chances are money wont be earned in the first run. However DNV GL and Lloyds Register have done several studies on the operational and safety aspects of implementing of LNG terminals and bunkering. 14
15 Case Study (Continued) A third pier for export of LNG has been planned and the foundation has been built, but SLNG has not yet completed the pipes and equipment on the topside, as this will require a significant investment and they are waiting for demand. MPA in the summer (2015) tendered for LNG bunker licenses. Keppel and BG recently won a LNG bunkering license from the MPA. According to one informant this may result in the Ministry of Energy pressuring SLNG to build the truck loading facilities at the LNG import terminal. Another informant argued that the market is unlikely to earn a profit in the beginning, but some are looking to be first movers in the market. 15
16 Map of LNG Bunkering Activities in Singapore 16
17 Preliminary Analysis 1. Singapore is in a unique situation as authorities are more likely to follow through on initiatives and commitments, and therefore these initiatives have a greater legitimacy among stakeholders compared to other countries in Southeast Asia. Therefore it is likely to be a leader in LNG Bunkering in the Region. 2. Clearly LNG bunkering in Singapore has been a process where different stakeholders (Keppel, Pavilion Energy, BG, SLNG, MPA) have enrolled in the development of bunkering and have recently gained legitimacy through the issuing of LNG bunkering licenses. 3. Nevertheless there is still a process of ensuring loading capabilities for LNG trucking at the SLNG import terminal, which has been a slow process due to uncertainty regarding disturbing normal LNG import. 17
18 Further Research Questions What is the impact on decision making of potential stakeholders in the aftermath of the issuing of LNG bunkering licenses? How will the Keppel-BG partnership consolidate their new positionality as bunker license holders? What barriers still lie ahead of developing LNG bunkering in Singapore? What processes will take place regarding the building of LNG fueled Tugboats? Will LNG bunkering become possible by truck in the near future? What ripple effects will this have for pilot projects such as the Keppel Tugboats? 18
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