Climate Change and Adaptation in Asia: Key Findings of the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report

Transcription

1 1 Climate Change and Adaptation in Asia: Key Findings of the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Juan M. Pulhin, Professor and Dean College of Forestry and Natural Resources University of the Philippines Los Baños

2 Outline Overview of IPCC WG2 Observed and projected climate change in Asia Sectoral Impacts and Vulnerability Food security Water resources Terrestrial ecosystem Marine and coastal ecosystems Key Risks and potential for adaptation Towards a climate-resilient pathways 2

3 CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY AR5, IPCC WGII

4 WG 2 Framework: the solution space 4 IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

5 Chapter 24, Asia: Coverage 51 countries/regions Source: IPCC,

6 Observed and projected changes in annual average temperature in Asia IPCC WG 2 Asia,

7 Observed and projected changes in annual average precipitation in Asia 7 A wetter and drier Asia IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

8 Observations of Past Events Source: IPCC, 2013 Climate Phenomenon Heat Waves Drought Floods Asia It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Asia. More megadroughts occurred in monsoon Asia and wetter conditions prevailed in arid Central Asia monsoon region during the Little Ice Age ( ) compared to the Medieval Climate Anomaly ( ) (Medium confidence) Past floods larger than recorded since the 20th century occurred during the past five centuries in eastern Asia (high confidence). In the Near East and India modern large floods are comparable or surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or frequency (medium confidence). Southeast Asia No Specific Observations No Specific Observations No Specific Observations

9 Future Projections Source: IPCC, 2013 Climate Phenomenon Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation Asia Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Indian monsoon rainfall is projected to increase. For the East Asian summer monsoon, both monsoon circulation and rainfall are projected to increase. Natural modulations of the variance and spatial pattern of El Niño Southern Oscillation are so large that confidence in any projected change for the 21 st century remains low. Confidence is low in changes in climate impacts for most of Asia. Southeast Asia Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in Southeast Asia. There is low confidence in projections of future changes in the Madden Julian Oscillation due to the poor skill in model simulations of this intraseasonal phenomenon and the sensitivity to ocean warming patterns. Future projections of regional climate extremes in Southeast Asia are therefore of low confidence. Reduced precipitation in Indonesia in Jul Oct due to pattern of Indian Ocean warming (RCP 4.5 or higher end scenarios) Low Confidence in any projected change for the 21 st century.

10 Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013) Source: IPCC, 2013 Projected climate change (based on RCPs) in AR5 is similar to AR4 in both patterns and magnitude, after accounting for scenario differences. Projections of global mean sea level rise has increased in confidence since the AR4 because of the improved physical understanding of the components of sea level, the improved agreement of process-based models with observations, and the inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

11 Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013) Source: IPCC, 2013 Global mean sea level rise for relative to will likely be in the following ranges: 0.26 to 0.55 m (RCP2.6) 0.32 to 0.63 m (RCP4.5) 0.33 to 0.63 m (RCP6.0) 0.45 to 0.82 m (RCP8.5) medium confidence Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change within 20% of the global mean sea level change.

12 Assessing risk Very Low Risk Level Med Very High Present Near Term ( ) Long Term ( ) 2 C 4 C Risk Level with High Adaptation Risk Level with Current Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

13 Ecosystems Health Rate Present Near Term ( ) Long Term 2 C ( ) 4 C Very Low Risk-Level Med Very High Risk Level with High Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with Current Adaptation Flood Water Wildfire Heat Flood Heat Coral Fisheries Water Water Crops Food Disease Flood Heat Drought Reefs Livelihoods Coasts Disease Coasts Flood Coasts

14 Food Security The impacts of climate change will vary by region with many regions to experience a decline in productivity (medium confidence) Most models show that higher temperatures will lead to lower rice yields as a result of shorter growing periods. 14

15 Food Security There are a number of regions that are already near the heat stress limits for rice. However, CO2 fertilization may at least in part offset yield losses in rice and other crops. Agricultural output has been noticeably impacted by intensified floods and droughts which caused almost 90% of rice production losses in Cambodia during (Brooks and Adger, 2003; MRC, 2009). 15

16 Food Security Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas and will especially affect rice growing regions. There are many potential adaptation strategies being practiced and being proposed but research studies on their effectiveness are still few. 16

17 Water Resources Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region due to increased water demand and lack of good management (medium confidence) Water resources are important in Asia because of the massive population and vary among regions and seasons. 17

18 Terrestrial Ecosystems Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have responded to recent climate change with shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and the distributions of plant species, and permafrost degradation The projected changes in climate during the 21st Century will increase these impacts (high confidence) 18

19 Terrestrial Ecosystems Boreal trees will likely invade treeless arctic vegetation, while evergreen conifers will likely invade deciduous larch forest. Large changes may also occur in arid and semiarid areas, but uncertainties in precipitation projections make these more difficult to predict. 19

20 Terrestrial Ecosystems The impacts of projected climate changes on the vegetation of the lowland tropics are currently poorly understood. 20

21 SPM 5: Many species cannot move fast enough 21 IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

22 Coastal and Marine Coastal and marine systems in Asia are under increasing stress from both climatic and non-climatic drivers (high confidence) Vietnam and Cambodia are two of the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts on fisheries (Allison et al., 2009; Halls, 2009). 22

23 Coastal and Marine In the Asian Arctic, rising sea-levels are expected to interact with projected changes in permafrost and the length of the ice-free season to cause increased rates of coastal erosion (high agreement, medium evidence). Mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds may decline unless they can move inland, while coastal freshwater swamps and marshes will be vulnerable to saltwater intrusion with rising sea-levels (include Mekong delta). 23

24 Coastal and Marine Widespread damage to coral reefs correlated with episodes of high seasurface temperature has been reported in recent decades There is high confidence that damage to reefs will increase during the 21 st century as a result of both warming and ocean acidification. 24

25 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation 25 Key Risk Adaptation Issues and Prospects Time Frame Risk for Current and high adaptation Increase risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity in Asia (medium confidence) Autonomous adaptation of farmers on-going in many parts of Asia. Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Very Low Medium Very high IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

26 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation 26 Key Risk Water shortage in arid areas of Asia (medium confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Limited capacity for water resource adaptation; options include developing water saving technology, changing drought-resilient crops, building more water reservoir Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

27 27 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Increased flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure and settlements in Asia (medium confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Adaptation measures include extreme weather exposure reduction via effective land-use planning, selective relocation and structural measures; reduction in the vulnerability of lifeline infrastructure and services (water, energy, waste management, food, biomass, mobility, local ecosystems and telecommunications) and measures to assist vulnerable sectors and households. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

28 28 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Increased risk of flood related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and mental disorders (medium confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Disaster preparedness including earlywarning systems and local coping strategies. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

29 29 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Increased risk of healthrelated mortality (high confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Heat health-warning systems, urban planning to reduce heat islands and improvement of built environment. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

30 30 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Increased risk of droughtrelated water and food shortage causing malnutrition (high confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Disaster preparedness including earlywarning systems and local coping strategies. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

31 31 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Increased risk of water and vector-borne diseases (medium confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Early-warning systems, vector control programs, water management and sanitation programs. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

32 32 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Exacerbated poverty, inequalities and new vulnerabilities (high confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Insufficient emphasis and limited understanding on urban poverty, interaction between livelihoods, poverty and climate change. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

33 33 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Coral reef decline in Asia (high confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects The limited adaptation options include minimizing additional stresses in marine protected areas sited where sea surface temperatures are expected to change least and reef resilience is expected to be highest. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

34 34 Key risks and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation Key Risk Mountain top extinctions in Asia (high confidence) Adaptation Issues and Prospects Adaptation options are limited. Reducing non-climate impacts and maximizing habitat connectivity will reduce risks to some extent, while assisted migration maybe practical for some species. Time Frame Present Near-term 2 C Long-term ( ) 4 C Risk for Current and high adaptation Very Low Medium Very high

35 Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters Tropical cyclone frequency is likely to decrease or remain unchanged over the 21 st century, while intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed and rainfall rates) is likely to increase (AR5 WG1) Densely populated Asian deltas, including the Mekong delta, are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to their large population density 35

36 Inland and storm surge flooding (cyclone Nargis) in Irrawaddy Delta and to the east of Myanmar 36 IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014

37 Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters Preparation for extreme tropical cyclone events through improved governance and development to reduce their impacts provides an avenue for building resilience to longer-term changes associated with climate change 37

38 Where do want to go? 38 IPCC WG2 SPM, 2014

39 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB Transboundary adaptation planning and management with the following components: a shared climate projection across the LMB improved coordination among adaptation stakeholders and sharing of best practices across countries; mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national and sub-national development plans with proper translation from national adaptation strategies into local action plans; IPCC WG 2 Asia,

40 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB integration of transboundary policy recommendations into national climate change plans and policies; integration of adaptation strategies on a landscape scale between ministries and different levels of government within a country (MRC, 2009; Lian and Bhullar, 2011; Lebel et al., 2012; Kranz et al., 2010) IPCC WG 2 Asia,

41 Possible Resilient Pathways for LMB A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network to scale up and improve mainstreaming of adaptation through tangible actions following the theory and successful examples of the Global Action Networks (GANs) (Waddell, 2005; Waddell and Khagram, 2007; WCD, 2000; GAVI, 2011; Schaffer and Ding, 2012). IPCC WG 2 Asia,

42 42 Thank you