ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND MARKET CHALLENGES FOR THE METHANE TO DERIVATIVES PETROCHEMICAL SUB-SECTOR
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1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND MARKET CHALLENGES FOR THE METHANE TO DERIVATIVES PETROCHEMICAL SUB-SECTOR
2 Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. CERI publications include: Market specific studies Geopolitical analyses Commodity reports (crude oil, electricity and natural gas) In addition, CERI hosts an annual Petrochemicals Conference, and Energy Forum.
3 Canadian Energy Research Institute Core Funders: Donors: In-kind Support:
4 Presentation Outline NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY METHANE-DERIVED PRODUCTS ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ECONOMIC IMPACTS CONCLUSIONS
5 Natural Gas supply and demand forecasts Canadian natural gas production forecast Industrial use, oil sands, power generation, LNG, chemicals and petrochemicals production mmcfd Pipeline Exports LNG Exports Supply Demand
6 Global Petrochemical Outlook Petrochemicals markets and emerging trends Source: IHS Chemical 2016
7 North America Petrochemical Outlook Low cost feedstock advantage leading to investments in chemicals and derivatives
8 Methanol Outlook Methanol demand is forecast to grow at 4% globally compound annual growth rate (CAGR) Source: Argus 2017
9 METHANE DERIVATIVES & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Acetic Acid Formaldehyde Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) Dimethyl ether (DME) Hydrogen (H 2 ) Methylamine Methane (CH 4 ) CO 2 Synthesis Gas (Syngas) Methanol (MeOH) Methanol to Olefins (MTO) Methanol to Propylene (MTP) Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) METHYL METHACRYLATE (MMA) Natural Gas (N.G) Ammonia Urea Natural Liquified gas Petroleum liquids Gas (NGLs) (LPG) Fischer-Tropsch Process
10 Economic Assessment 1. Assessment of 9 technologies: Methanol, Hydrogen, MTP & MTO, Ammonia, Urea, Formaldehyde, Fischer Tropsch Gasoline, 2. Key Assumptions 3. Life Cycle Costs (LCC): NPV of CAPEX (ISBL- inside battery limits and OSBL Outside Battery Limits), Natural Gas costs, taxes, etc. 4. Jurisdictional competitiveness comparison: AB, ON, USGC 5. Discounted NPV and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 6. Direct and indirect economic impacts: GDP, Employment 7. Scenarios: Tax policy incentives Output-Based allocation
11 Provincial CO 2 Tax Assumptions Alberta: Increase by 2% + inflation after 2018 (Climate Leadership Plan) Ontario: Mid-range CO 2 Price Forecast (ICF Study for Ontario Energy Board) Canada ($/t-co2): 10 (2018), 20 (2019), 30 (2020), 40 (2021), 50 (2022->)
12 Price Assumptions Urea Methanol Formaldehyde Ammonia FTS Gasoline TIGAS MTP MTO Hydrogen $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 Price US$/tonne Derivative prices are kept constant Where available 2016 are assumed Otherwise, available prices are used Natural Gas Price Assumption USGC AIH Sarnia Average 2016 Prices Natural Gas (US$/ MMBTU) Henry, AECO and Dawn Hubs Prices
13 Results: IRR for 9 Methane Derivatives IRR 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% USGC AIH Sarnia Only methanol and Hydrogen meet the 10% expected rate of return However, the economics is sensitive to natural gas and product prices
14 Methanol NPV Jurisdictional Comparison
15 Hydrogen NPV Jurisdictional Comparison
16 MTO NPV Jurisdictional Comparison
17 Carbon Tax Scenarios: Methanol Better economics with current provincial tax policies than federal tax policy. IRR% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% OBA has the best economic prospects. 2% 0% USGC AIH Sarnia USGC AIH Sarnia USGC AIH Sarnia Scenario 0 Scenario I Scenario II For OBA scenario, plants assessed are considered best-in-class; thus, CO 2 tax does not apply
18 Corporate Tax Rebates Scenarios: Methanol Provincial Tax Rebate Could Increase IRR by: 1% in AB 0.7% in ON Corporate Tax Rebate Could Increase IRR by: 2.2% in AB 1.7% in ON IRR% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% AIH Sarnia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Scenario III Scenario IV Assumes that a certain percentage of corporate tax is provided as rebate, for example towards capital recovery
19 Economic Impacts Input-Output Modeling Results for A Methanol Plant in AB and ON Direct and indirect impacts on GDP at provincial and federal levels C$ Mill MeOH Significant economic impacts at provincial and national levels compared to the total capital invested (TCI) TCI Corp tax (NPV) CO2 tax (NPV) AB ON Cum NPV GDP GDP (CA) (AB/ON)
20 Concluding Remarks New capacity for ethylene, propylene and methanol followed energy and demand growth dynamics Results show that some opportunities exists for methane derivatives sub-sector in Alberta. This is driven principally by 10-15% low feedstock prices, OPEX and corporate taxes. CO2 tax can significantly impact the economics of Canadian jurisdictions. However, the Output-Based Allocation CO2 Tax Scenarios seems to sustain economic competitiveness against the USGC.
21 Thank You for Your Time CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH Allan Fogwill President & CEO
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