27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

Transcription

1 27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference "Developing & Delivering Affordable Energy in the 21st Century" Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos Associate Professor IEE - USP edsantos@iee.usp.br Fone: (55-11) Hilton Houston Post Oak Hotel, Houston, Texas - September 16-19, 2007

2 DISCUSSING BRAZIL S NUCLEAR FUTURE Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos, IEE -, , edsantos@iee.usp.br Paul Louis Poulallion, SINDE, , ppoulallion@sinde.com.br Murilo Tadeu Werneck Fagá, IEE -, , murfaga@iee.usp.br

3 SUMMARY Initial thoughts International Outlook The Brazilian reality Proposing a New Nuclear Program Conclusions 20 de setembro de

4 Initial Thoughts The revival of nuclear energy Arguments being used

5 Initial Thoughts From the BAD to the GOOD? Since the Three Mile Island accident in Major safety concerns and financial troubles in the main Western countries. The suffering of Nuclear Energy. TODAY - The picture seems more favorably to nuclear. Political and economic situation improved. Increasing social acceptance. Revival of nuclear in the major Western countries? 20 de setembro de

6 Initial Thoughts Arguments for the change? Convergence between ENERGY SECURITY & ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY. Growing concerns with climate changes. Scaring mask passed to the Fossil-fuel industries. Worries with energy security. Increasing perception of risk in the electricity supply. Risks in global energy transactions. 20 de setembro de

7 International Outlook Asia & others Western Europe USA

8 International Outlook The uncertain return to Nuclear? Asia & others Nuclear energy never ruled out to 2005 Nuclear keeps its 15% of MTK Share Tremendous growing plan From 8GW (2004) to 150GW (2050) Sweden / Germany Abandoning the abandon. UK Resuming the construction of NEW CAPACITY. FRANCE The Global Nuclear Icon USA The public opinion changing the most. Nuclear now seen as ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIEND. THE ENERGY POLICY ACT de setembro de

9 International Outlook Close eyes in the USA experience Still largest Nuclear Industry in the world. About 100 reactors 1/3 of world installed nuclear capacity. 2004`s total production 814 TWh (20% of Mkt Share). Existing reactors operating just fine Low cost energy. No new nuclear reactor built in the USA in the last 20 years. Still NO NEW CONSTRUCTION AEO2007`s reference case: Nuclear Mkt share declines - 19% (2005) to 15% (2030). Plants uprates balance retirements. Only from 9 to 11.5GW of new capacity expected. 20 de setembro de

10 The Brazilian Reality The revival of the nuclear debate The international influence Energy security Environmental security

11 The Brazilian Reality Proposing a New Nuclear Program Expected new nuclear power capacity in Brazil 2007 to 2030 (in MW) Scenarios: LOW 1360 (Angra III) MEDIUM 1360 (Angra III) HIGH 1360 (Angra III) Source: NEP2006 EPE By 2030 Adding from 4 to 8 GW of new nuclear capacity. Equivalent to EIA`s projections to the USA Nuclear as a Historical project in Brazil 20 de setembro de

12 Source: BEN The Brazilian Reality Installed Capacity Annual expansions of Hydro Total Thermal and Nuclear vis à vis the Total Expansion of the System ( ) "Total expansion of the system" "Hydropower expansion" "Total thermal power expansion" "Nuclear power expansion" From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro Power Effectively Generated Annual expansions Hydro Total Thermal and Nuclear vis à vis the Total Expansion of the System ( ) Total expansion of the system Hydropower expansion Total thermal power expansion Nuclear power expansion de setembro de Source: BEN2006

13 Source: BEN Installed Capacity Annual expansions of Hydro Total Thermal and Nuclear vis à vis the Total Expansion of the System ( ) "Total expansion of the system" "Hydropower expansion" "Total thermal power expansion" "Nuclear power expansion" The Brazilian Reality From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro 300 Power Effectively Generated Annual expansions Hydro Total Thermal and Nuclear vis à vis the Total Expansion of the System ( ) Total expansion of the system Hydropower expansion Total thermal power expansion Nuclear power expansion de setembro de Source: BEN2006

14 The Brazilian Reality More Nuclear leading to higher efficiency? Hydropower decreasing Mkt Share in installed capacity. Recently, increasing in power effectively generated. Hydro system`s utilization factor increased - 49% (2001) to 54 (2005). Thermal system`s utilization factor decreased 50 (2001) to 34% (2005). The whole system`s utilization factor First declined 48% (2002) Then increased up to 2005 But still very low. Thermal investments: Helped to increase the electricity supply security. Damaged the efficiency in the overall capital allocation. Balancing the Energy Security argument of the New Nuclear Program and Angra III 20 de setembro de

15 The Brazilian Reality HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION The Environmental Argument Minimum Low Medium High Maximum Source: ANEEL Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt:// Ministério do Meio Ambiente 20 de setembro de

16 HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION The Brazilian Reality The Environmental Argument Minimum Low Medium High Maximum Source: ANEEL Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt:// 20 de setembro de 2007 Ministério do Meio Ambiente 16

17 The Brazilian Reality Balancing the Environmental Argument Nuclear in Brazil is less effective in reducing carbon emissions. Nuclear X Large Amazon Hydro Projects is flaw. Many other hydro options still environmental sounding. Electricity demand restructuring strongly needed. Environmental argument balanced against the convergence with the dominant hydro system. Major nuclear-related environmental issues yet not solved Final Disposal of nuclear wastes. 20 de setembro de

18 Proposing a New Nuclear Program Technology driver The full command of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Naval rather than Energy reactors Partnering wiht neighboring countries

19 Proposing a New Nuclear Program The real competitiveness of nuclear in Brazil? Based on Angra III`s official cost numbers. Nuclear energy is still not competitive in Brazil. Nuclear looses for HYDRO; BIOMASS; OIL (in the regulated and free markets). Nuclear - Driven by politics rather than economics: Low transparence and no independent scrutiny. Lack of private developers Low reliability. Technical expertise lost. 20 de setembro de

20 Proposing a New Nuclear Program Rather focusing on technology The command of the various steps that together make up the entire Nuclear Fuel Cycle. 20 de setembro de Source: URANIUM INFORMATION CENTRE Ltd.

21 Proposing a New Nuclear Program Rather focusing on technology 20 de setembro de Source: BEN2006

22 Proposing a New Nuclear Program No need of ANGRA III. Industrial-scale uranium enrichment - The critical step. Focus on Nuclear Self-sufficiency (feeding Angra I and II). Competitiveness is less critical. Large uranium reserves Exporting added value products rather than commodities. Domestic use of nuclear energy: Centered on Naval rather than Energy applications. Integration effort with neighboring countries. Atoms for a LATIN PEACE. 20 de setembro de

23 CONCLUSIONS International Domestic

24 International. Nuclear always booming eastward. Apparent return westward. Based on environmental + energy security issues. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. Nuclear definitively not an energy option. Focuses on technology and naval applications much less risky. Increasing nuclear security. Conclusions Domestic Less uncertainties Rise Regional Integration back to the political agenda. 20 de setembro de