IPCC WG II Chapter 3 Freshwater Resources and Their Management

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1 IPCC WG II Chapter 3 Freshwater Resources and Their Management Impacts increasingly harmful & more costly to adapt as global temperature increases May imperil sustainable development goals Semi-arid / arid areas especially vulnerable Impacts will depend on management practices, infrastructure & interactions with other stresses

2 Warming accelerates the hydrologic cycle Surface temperature Evaporation Water holding capacity Atmospheric moisture Enhanced Greenhouse Rain intensity Rain frequency? Floods & Droughts

3 Water Resource Impacts Rising temperatures, sea level & precipitation variability Changes in: total average annual water availability seasonal distribution variability water quality / temperature flood & drought risks

4 Most Likely Physical Impacts Global precipitation ~ 1-2% per 1 o C Snow season shorter earlier peak flow Glacial recession summer flow near-term, but long-term Sea level rise saltwater intrusion, coastal flooding More intense precipitation water quality impacts

5 Socioeconomic & Ecological Impacts Will be shaped by: Nature and quantity of water uses; multiple demands Changes in watershed, stream channel and aquifer conditions Human settlement patterns; population growth & movement Water management infrastructure Management practices; laws & other institutions

6 Future climate will depend on emissions of greenhouse gases

7 Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes

8 Warming heavier downpours Index of change in precipitation intensity (amount / wet day) Mid-range climate scenario Nine model average ( relative to ). Figure courtesy of Claudia Tebaldi

9 ... and longer dry spells Index of change in number of consecutive dry days Mid-range climate scenario Nine model average ( relative to ). Figure courtesy of Claudia Tebaldi

10 Projected Runoff Changes -- in % Weighted ensemble mean end-of-century change A1B Scenario Based on: Nohara et al J. Hydrometeorology 7:

11 Currently stressed areas are vulnerable Source: T. Oki and S. Kanae, 2006: Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources, Science, Vol.313. no.5790, pp

12 Sea levels are rising & Northern Hemisphere snow cover is declining Differences from means shading represents confidence interval Source: IPCC WG II FIGURE SPM-3.

13 Shrinking Glaciers Near term Increased summer streamflow Long term reductions Alaska's Toboggan Glacier is one of thousands in the state that have receded dramatically in the last century, as shown in this pair of photos from 1909 (top) and 2000 (bottom). CREDIT: BRUCE MOLNIA/USGS

14 Changes in snowpacks/ timing of runoff have occurred & will continue Observed streamflow timing changes (Center of mass) Observed: Large circles indicate sites with trends that differ significantly from zero at a 90% confidence level; (Courtesy of Michael Dettinger USGS, based on Stewart et al ) Trends are projected to continue through the 21st Century with increased winter flood risks & lower summer low-flows in many rivers.

15 Big Wildfires linked to earlier snowmelt & reduced summer soil moisture Running, Science, 18 August 2006

16 Wildfires: watershed impacts / sediment transport Hayman Fire burn area 2002 Debris flow into Denver s Strontia Springs Reservoir on July 12,1996 as a result of the Buffalo Creek fire and flash flood. (Photos courtesy of Denver Water).

17 More intense rainfall: water quality impairment Case: New York City -- Heavy runoff events & turbidity management High Turbidity in Schoharie Reservoir after Hurricane Floyd. Photos: Courtesy of NYCDEP Increased nutrient loadings / warmer temperatures promote algal blooms a major source of disinfection byproducts (DBPs).

18 Droughts: episodic supply crises 2002 Colorado drought single driest year on record (~300 yr event) Denver s Dillon Reservoir June, 2002 First time reservoirs lost storage during runoff period Severe water use restrictions Largest wildfire in Colorado history - burns Denver s major watershed

19 Uncertainties remain at local/regional scale Local/regional runoff Runoff variability Groundwater impacts Depends on changes in: - Precipitation processes amount, intensity, form, timing - evaporation - plant water use - infiltration to aquifers

20 End of century regional climate depends on emissions Multi-model projection distributions U.S. Rockies (20 models)

21 Adaptation under uncertainty Discard traditional assumption of climate stationarity. Integrated water resource management models to examine multiple climate, policy and resource use scenarios. Decision analysis explicit attention to uncertainty & risk management options

22 Adaptation will be an ongoing process We know that: First steps can be taken now What can we do? Global climate change may substantially change water supply and hazard characteristics It will create new uncertainties for water policy and planning. Risk management approach to water resource policy and planning Engage stakeholders Develop tools to incorporate climate change information