OIL AND GAS OUTLOOK: HOW ARE THE ENERGY MARKET AFFECTING METALS? Nicole Leonard, Project Manager, Oil & Gas Consulting Services November 2015

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1 OIL AND GAS OUTLOOK: HOW ARE THE ENERGY MARKET AFFECTING METALS? Nicole Leonard, Project Manager, Oil & Gas Consulting Services November 2015

2 KEY TAKEAWAYS Macroeconomic outlook: Prices have collapsed and remain low for hydrocarbons on fundamental oversupply. Drilling Activity: Producers continue to produce oil and gas in spite of low prices as they increase efficiencies and reduce costs. Forget about the rig count: The weekly rig count is no longer a reliable proxy for steel demand in the steel markets. Natural gas as feedstock: Natural gas prices will likely remain under pressure in the short-term, but long-term strength driven by export demand. Natural gas as a demand source: The large backlog of gas wells in the Northeast and risk to natural gas demand yields little demand potential for steel. Crude Oil: Oil continues to be the most valuable hydrocarbon and will continue to drive drilling activity. 2

3 STEEL PRICES TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE PRICE OF OIL AND GAS Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl) $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Crude Oil and Steel Prices $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Steel Prices ($USD/long ton) WTI Brent TSI US Shred Source: Bentek, Platts, The Steel Index 3

4 OIL PRICES AND PRODUCTION ACTIVITY REMAIN VOLATILE WTI/Brent Spot Prices $/bbl $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 OPEC fights Financially-driven for market price recovery and Storage share market optimism Rig activity reaches 80% Prices falls to by capacity 50% Prices, WTI-Brent Prices fall $45/bbl spread flattens below $40/bbl WTI Source: Bentek, Platts, data as of November 2015 Brent 4

5 MMb/d GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION GROWS DESPITE LOW GLOBAL PRICES Production Growth by Region (MMb/d) Global Oil Production v Brent Prices $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Brent ($/bbl) 0.0 US Iraq Saudi Arabia Other Production Prices Source: Bentek, IEA, data as of September

6 TOTAL US SUPPLY OF OIL AND GAS GROWS OVER 10.0 MMBOE/D IN A DECADE Mmboe/d Incremental Growth in Production since 2005 Growth ( ): 8.3 MMBoe/d Gas NGL Crude Source: Bentek 6

7 DOWNSIDE RISK TO EMERGING MARKET DEMAND FOR PRODUCTS 15 Real GDP Growth, Emerging Market Economies Real GDP Growth YoY (%) Brazil China Russian Federation India Source: Bentek, CEIC data 7

8 GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION WEAKENS ON STRUCTURAL ISSUES 60 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by Country PMI (50-neutral) Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 U.S. Eurozone Japan China Russia Brazil Global Sources: ISM, HSBC, Markit, JP Morgan Chase, National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, JMMA, Statista, CEIC data 8

9 WTI ($/bbl) PRODUCERS REACT TO OIL PRICES, DRILLING RESPONSE LAGGED 2-3 MONTHS $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 WTI Prices and Active Rig Count 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, # of active rigs WTI Active Rigs Source: Bentek, Platts, RigData, data as of November 6,

10 ACTIVE RIG COUNT IN US MORE THAN HALVED SINCE PRICE COLLAPSE Rig Increases 12/-50 CALIFORNIA 1/-5 OTHER ROCKIES 17/-3 10/-23 1/-1 11/ / /-96 WILLISTON POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER D-J GREEN RIVER 32/-31 5/-9 PICEANCE ANADARKO UINTA 1/-1 5/-5 RATON 87/-166 SAN JUAN PERMIAN 19/-34 FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT 35/-98 77/-140 ILLINOIS 11/-9 ARK FAYETTEVILLE 61/-33 3/-2 23/-19 5/-6 ARK WOODFORD 9/+2 ARKLA 23/-18 34/+1 7/-18 AL-MS-FL 33/-54 7/-14 EAST TX MICHIGAN UTICA LA GULF TX GULF OFFSHORE 24/-13 28/-17 2/-1 OTHER APPALACHIAN MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 890 CHANGE Rig Declines TX GULF EAGLE FORD Source: BENTEK, Nov 2015 Active rig count: Nov 6, 2015 / Change in rig count from Nov 7,

11 TREND IN DRILLING LEADS TO MORE WELLS WITH FEWER RIGS Number of Wells/Rigs 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, U.S. Horizontal Drilling Dynamics Wells per Month per Rig Horizontal Wells Drilled Horizontal Rigs Wells Drilled per Rig per Month Source: Bentek, RigData 11

12 PRODUCERS CAN PRODUCE MORE OIL AND GAS IN LESS TIME, FEWER RIGS Initial Production Rates (b/d) IP Rates and Drill Times by Basin (2010 vs. 2015Q1/Q2) Anadarko Bakken DJ Eagle Ford Permian 2010 IP 2015Q1 IP 2010 Drill Time 2015Q2 Drill Time # of days to tdrill Source: Bentek, RigData, DrillingInfo 12

13 $ million/well COSTS OF PRODUCTION DOWN BY 15% AND FALLING $10.0 $9.0 $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 Williston Permian Marcellus Eagle Ford DJ *Data sample comprised of 20+ Producers Average Well Cost by Basin (2014 vs. 2015Q1) 15% 19% 9% Source: Bentek, producer presentations 2014 Average 2015Q1 Average 16% 14% 13

14 # of Wells PRODUCERS HIGH GRADE, FOCUS ON MOST PRODUCTIVE ACREAGE Core Drilling vs. Total, Top 5 Oil Basins 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% % Core Total Core total % Core Top 5 Basins Include: Anadarko, Permian, Eagle Ford, Williston and Denver-Julesburg Source: Bentek, RigData 14

15 AVERAGE RIG COUNT TO MAINTAIN PRODUCTION ABOUT 600 RIGS Mb/d 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Production Scenarios (assume avg IP of 400 b/d) 1000 rigs 666 rigs wells per month per rig Existing Wells 500 Wells/Mth 1000 Wells/mth 1500 Wells/Mth Source: Bentek 15

16 HUGE WELL BACKLOG MEANS PRODUCTION CAN GROW WITHOUT DRILLING MORE WELLS # of wells 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ~2,100 Wells in Inventory 16 Bcf/d of Production Northeast Gas Well Backlog by Region NE PA Dry South Dry WV Dry SW PA Wet WV Wet OH Source: Bentek, RigData 16

17 WELL BACKLOG, EFFICIENCIES WILL DRIVE PRODUCTION GROWTH IN US Bentek v EIA Historical and Forecasted Oil Production MMb/d EIA Bentek Source: Bentek, EIA 17

18 MMb/d EIA S CALL ON PRODUCTION SUSPICIOUS DUE TO LARGE SUPPLY/DEMAND ADJUSTMENTS (6) (12) (18) US Supply and Demand Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Production Imports Refining Exports EIA Adj (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) Source: Bentek, EIA 18 Mb/d

19 FORWARD CURVE TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO FUTURE DRILLING ACTIVITY WTI Forward Curve WTI (Futures Price) $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 Permian Delaware, Eagle Ford, Bakken, DJ, Anadarko Miss Anadarko Cleveland Permian Midland ***Representative Placement April 30 Nov 4 Source: Bentek, Platts, Wells Fargo 19

20 INCREMENTAL 25,000 WELLS/YEAR EXPECTED TO BE DRILLED 60,000 50,000 Historical and Forecasted Wells Drilled in North America # of wells drilled 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Bentek, RigData 20

21 LATERAL LENGTHS INCREASE 15% YOY, DIFFERS ON GEOLOGY OF PLAY Lateral Length (feet) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Producer-Reported Average Lateral Lengths by Play Anadarko Delaware DJ Basin Eagle Ford Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Midland Source: Bentek, RigData 21

22 NATURAL GAS REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FEEDSTOCK TO THE METALS MARKETS MMcf/d US Primary Metals Consumption of Natural Gas Source: Bentek 22

23 GAS PRICES TO REMAIN LOW IN SHORT- TERM UNTIL EXPORT DEMAND RAMPS UP $USD/MMbtu $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 Bentek Henry Hub Forecast v Futures Curve Bearish in the shortterm due to production assumptions Bullish in the med/long term with LNG exports ramping up HH (Bentek Forecast) HH Futures Source: Bentek 23

24 Bcf/d NATURAL GAS EXPORTS DRIVING LONG- TERM DRILLING AND PRODUCTION ACTIVITY U.S. Annual Natural Gas Demand Forecast: 2015 vs Res/Comm -1 Bcf/d ResComm Power Industrial Exports to Mexico LNG Exports Source: Bentek 24

25 US MARKET NEEDS LNG EXPORTS, AT RISK TO GLOBAL DEMAND 12 Bentek US LNG Capacity and Exports 10 Bcf/d Capacity LNG Export Forecast Nov '15 LNG Export Forecast Sep '14 Source: Bentek 25

26 OIL DRILLING AND PRODUCTION DRIVING STEEL DEMAND IN ENERGY MARKETS # of wells drilled 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Historical and Forecasted Wells Drilled by Play Class OIL GAS Source: Bentek, RigData 26

27 IRR HIGHER RETURNS IN OIL PLAYS, PROFITABLE AGAIN BY END OF DECADE 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Half-Cycle Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Forecast Source: Bentek 27

28 CURRENT FORECAST IMPLIES SLOW RECOVERY FOR OIL PRICES, PRICES TO REACH NEARLY $70/BBL $/bbl $125 $115 $105 $95 $85 $75 $65 $55 $45 $35 Bentek s Crude Oil Price Forecast WTI Brent Source: Bentek s Crude Oil Market Call, Bentek s PADD Balances, Data as of October

29 LIQUIDS TO REGAIN VALUE, REMAIN HIGHEST VALUED HYDROCARBON $30 Gas, Oil and NGL Price Forecast: MMBtu Equivalent $/MMBtu Equivalent $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 WTI HH MB NGL Brent CAPP Source: Bentek, Platts 29

30 USD bn $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 ($10) ($20) ($30) US PRODUCERS CANNOT CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SPENDING TRENDS U.S. and Canada Quarterly Free Cash Flow Burn Cash Flow from Ops. Capital Expenditures Unlevered Free Cash Flow Note: Companies with market capitalization greater than $100MM Source: Bentek, S&P Capital IQ 30

31 KEY TAKEAWAYS Macroeconomic outlook: Prices have collapsed and remain low for hydrocarbons on fundamental oversupply. Drilling Activity: Producers continue to produce oil and gas in spite of low prices as they increase efficiencies and reduce costs. Forget about the rig count: The weekly rig count is no longer a reliable proxy for steel demand in the steel markets. Natural gas as feedstock: Natural gas prices likely to remain under pressure in the short-term, but long-term strength driven by export demand. Natural gas as a demand source: The large backlog of gas wells in the Northeast and risk to natural gas demand yields little demand potential for steel. Crude Oil: Oil continues to be the most valuable hydrocarbon and will continue to drive drilling activity. 31

32 QUESTIONS? BENTEK is an energy market analytics company, focused on the natural gas, NGL and crude oil markets. Thank you! Nicole Leonard, Project Manager, Oil & Gas Consulting Direct: (720) DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY.

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