4.13 POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING; GROWTH INDUCEMENT; AND ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE

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1 4.13 POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING; GROWTH INDUCEMENT; AND ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE This section describes the existing and projected demographics of the project area and analyzes the LWRP 2020 Plan s potential impacts on population, employment, and housing. The section then discusses the potential for growth inducement and assesses the secondary effects of growth. Finally, the section discusses environmental justice issues. Demographic data presented in this section are primarily based on the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) 2000 forecasts. These forecasts utilize the 2000 census data Environmental Setting Population The County is comprised of 88 cities and has a population of 9,802,800. Approximately one million of these people live in unincorporated areas, which constitutes roughly 65 percent of the County land area. Like much of the northern County area, Antelope Valley communities have experienced rapid growth over the last several years. Antelope Valley consists of 1,200 square miles and extends from Gorman to the San Bernardino County line. It includes the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale, as well as portions of unincorporated northern County area. Currently, growth rates in Antelope Valley exceed countywide growth rates. Much of the recent growth is attributed to the availability of open space and affordable housing in the area. The current population estimate of the valley, based on the 2000 census data, is 353,000. District No. 14 is located in the rapidly developing portion of the northern County area. The LWRP is located north of the current District No. 14 service area in a sparsely populated unincorporated portion of the County. The area immediately surrounding the LWRP has not experienced the same rate of growth as the City of Lancaster to the south, although some small communities do exist in the region, including the community of Antelope Acres to the southwest of the project area. The estimated population for the District No. 14 service area in 2000 was 118,718. SCAG forecasts show that the population will continue to grow in Antelope Valley and the surrounding regions and that the Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

2 growth will be sustained through the next two decades. Table shows the projected Antelope Valley and District No. 14 population trends. As with the rest of the region, the City of Lancaster has Table Antelope Valley Population Trends (projected) 2020 (projected) Antelope Valley 353, , ,000 District No. 14 Planning Area (a) 118, , ,248 Source: 2000 Census; SCAG projections, (a) Data for current service area grown rapidly in the last decade and is considered among the fastest growing communities in Southern California. The population in the city increased by 70 percent from 1985 (56,699) to 1990 (97,291). Like much of the surrounding area, this growth is attributed to the availability of affordable housing in the city. SCAG population forecasts for the city show that the population is expected to more than double in the next 20 years from 137,818 in 2000 to 284,021 by the year Table shows the City of Lancaster population trends. Table City of Lancaster Population Trends (projected) 56,699 97, , , ,021 Source: 2000 Census, Antelope Valley Board of Trade, 2003, SCAG projections, Employment In 1999, according to the Antelope Valley Board of Trade, the Antelope Valley labor force was estimated at 125,610. Approximately 66 percent of these individuals worked within Antelope Valley, while 33 percent commuted to jobs outside of the valley. The single largest employer in Antelope Valley in 1994 was EAFB, which employed 15,367 individuals. Table shows Antelope Valley employment by sector. Table shows SCAG employment projections. The aerospace industry continues to provide a substantial number of jobs in the Antelope Valley. Recently awarded aerospace contracts are anticipated to generate at least 3,000 additional aerospacerelated jobs at the Lockheed Martin Corporation alone and an additional 6,000 to 8,000 support jobs. In addition, Lockheed Martin will move approximately 1,000 jobs from Ontario, California, to Palmdale. Other large aerospace and manufacturing companies located in Antelope Valley include Northrop Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

3 Table Antelope Valley Employment by Sector SECTOR EMPLOYMENT (MAY 1999) Agriculture 1,000 Construction 4,542 Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 5,900 Government 14,700 Manufacturing 20,952 Mining 1,050 Services 34,005 Transportation, Communications, and Utilities 5,140 Wholesale and Retail Trade 23,528 Commuters 49,104 TOTAL 159,921 Source: Antelope Valley Board of Trade Business Outlook, Table Lancaster Employment Projections (projected) Jobs 51,251 80,273 Source: SCAG, 2001 Grumman, Rockwell International, U.S. Borax & Chemical Company, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Boeing Company, and Anderson-Barrows. Housing Household Stock and Prices Since the mid 1980s, the total number of single and multi-family units has increased considerably in Antelope Valley. A variety of factors, including the availability of lower priced homes, has contributed to this substantial increase in total residential units. In 1980, there were approximately 18,127 housing units in the City of Lancaster. Approximately 70 percent were single-family residences, 14 percent were multiple-family residences, and the remaining were mobile homes. Between 1980 and 1990, Lancaster s housing stock increased by approximately 102 percent to 36,525 units. Between 1990 and 2000, housing increased 14 percent. SCAG forecasts Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

4 show households are anticipated to increase through Table shows historic household trends for the City of Lancaster. Table Household Trends for the City of Lancaster (projected) Total Households 18,127 36,525 41,449 91,345 Source: LWRP 2020 Plan Housing prices for both new and old homes in the Antelope Valley are lower than in the Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys. Vacancy Rates Vacancy rates for the City of Lancaster ranged from 3.8 percent in 1982 to as high as 10.6 percent in As of 2000, the homeowner vacancy rate was 3.4 percent while the rental vacancy rate was 8.8 percent. Typically, growing communities tend to have higher vacancy rates as housing supply stays slightly ahead of actual growth. Population Characteristics As of 2000, 48 percent of the population of Lancaster was between the ages of 5 and 34. The median age was 31.1 years. According to the 2000 census, the population was proportioned racially as follows: 52 percent White, 24 percent Hispanic, 17 percent African American, 5 percent Asian, and 2 percent Native American or Other. According to information compiled by EAFB, as of September 2000, 28 percent of the population of the Antelope Valley as a whole was between the ages of 35 and 54. The majority of the population, over 30 percent, was between the ages of 0 and 17. According to statistics listed on the EAFB website ( as of 2000, the population of the entire Antelope Valley was proportioned racially as follows: 73.2 percent White, 15.2 percent Hispanic, 7.2 percent African American, and 4.7 percent Other Public Affairs, Air Force Flight Test Center, Antelope Valley Demographics. Accessed August 8, Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

5 Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures Chapter 4 Environmental Setting, Impacts, and Mitigation Thresholds of Significance According to the CEQA Guidelines, a proposed project would have a significant effect on population and housing if it: Induces substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). Displaces substantial numbers of existing housing units, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Displaces substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Contributes to the secondary effects of growth. Affects minority or low economic populations disproportionately. Impact : The project would result in displacement of housing and individuals. The LWRP 2020 Plan would include the upgrade and expansion of wastewater treatment facilities and effluent management facilities including agricultural and municipal reuse. Alternatives 1 and 2 include storage reservoirs to the north of the LWRP. The area is mostly undeveloped and does not contain any residences. No individuals or housing would be displaced as a result of constructing the proposed wastewater treatment facilities and storage reservoirs. The LWRP 2020 Plan would also include the conversion of 4,170 to 13,940 acres of land, depending on which alternative is chosen, to agricultural uses. The areas proposed for agriculture consist mainly of open space and agricultural uses with scattered residential uses, including single-family residences and mobile homes. Some of the land is currently under cultivation. There are approximately 25 single-family residences and/or mobile homes located within the western agricultural area and 56 in the eastern agricultural area. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

6 District No. 14 proposes to acquire the properties and remove most of the residences and other existing structures prior to the proposed agricultural land conversion and construction of the storage reservoirs. The removal of the residential units would result in the displacement of individuals. However, it is not considered to exceed the CEQA significance threshold, since it would not displace a substantial amount of people. District No. 14 will implement the following measures as part of the project. Mitigation Measures Alternatives 1, 2, 3, and 4 Mitigation Measure : All legal tenants/residents shall be relocated to residential dwelling units that are appropriate for the size of the family and in conformance with the housing quality standards set forth in the California Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Guidelines, CCR, Title 25, Chapter 6, Subchapter 1. Mitigation Measure : No persons of low or moderate income shall be displaced unless and until there is a comparable replacement housing unit available and ready for occupancy by such displaced persons or families at rents comparable to those at the time of their displacement. Significance After Mitigation Less than significant. Impact : The proposed project could cause disproportionate impacts to local populations. Although CEQA does not specifically require that the effects of a project be evaluated with respect to environmental justice, the CEQA-Plus procedures outlined in the SRF financing guidelines include compliance with Executive Order 12898, which requires an environmental justice assessment. The LWRP 2020 Plan calls for the acquisition of a significant amount of land that would displace existing residences in certain areas. Also, the construction and daily operational effects impacts of the LWRP would be experienced mostly by the existing population in the immediate vicinity of the facility. As such, these areas would experience effects of the project that other residences of the Antelope Valley would not experience. The areas affected include visual aesthetics, construction traffic, air quality, noise, housing, and land use. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

7 The local residences would not benefit directly from the project since they are not within the District No. 14 s service area and are currently not hooked up to the sanitary sewer system. All local residences utilize individual septic systems. Several residences exist in close proximity to the proposed storage reservoirs. The community of Antelope Acres would be at least five miles southwest of the proposed storage reservoir construction areas. The community of Rosamond in Kern County would be over five miles to the north. The project area is sparsely populated and it is expected that relatively few residences will need to be relocated. The need for the additional land has been well established. District No. 14 has sited the proposed treatment and agricultural facilities in sparsely populated areas. There are currently approximately 56 residences in the Eastern Agricultural Area and 25 in the Western Agricultural Area, some of which could be displaced.to minimize the number of residences to be displaced. District No. 14 would attempt to minimize the need for displacing residents. The proposed treatment facilities would be placed east of SR-14 where there are currently no residences. The proposed agricultural facilities would be adjacent to the southern boundary of EAFB or in the vicinity of Nebeker Ranch where there are currently approximately 50 to 60 residences, some of which would be displaced. District No. 14 has conducted an extensive program alternatives analysis to minimize the impacts of the project (see Chapter 5.0 of this document). Since long-term impacts to the local area would be less than significant, and since the general population of the local area is not disproportionately represented by minority or low income groups, no environmental justice impact would be expected as a result of the project. Mitigation Measure Alternatives 1, 2, 3, and 4 No mitigation measures are necessary. Significance After Mitigation Less than significant. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

8 Impact : The proposed project would indirectly cause secondary effects of growth. Growth Inducement The CEQA Guidelines (Section 15126(D)) require that an EIR evaluate the growth-inducing impacts of a proposed action. A growth-inducing impact is defined by the CEQA Guidelines as: The way in which a proposed project could foster economic or population growth, or the construction of additional housing, either directly or indirectly, in the surrounding environment. Included in this definition are public works projects, which would remove obstacles to population growth. It is not assumed that growth in an area is necessarily beneficial, detrimental, or of little significance to the environment. A project can either directly or indirectly induce growth. Direct growth inducement would result if a project involved construction of new housing. Indirect growth inducement would occur if a project would increase infrastructure, utility service areas, or job opportunities in an area. Similarly, a project would have an indirect growth inducement effect if it would remove an obstacle to additional growth and development, such as removing a constraint on a required public service. Wastewater treatment service is one of the chief primary public services needed to support urban development. District No. 14 provides wastewater collection, treatment, and disposal services to the surrounding area. The proposed project would include expansion of wastewater facilities at the LWRP. In accordance with CEQA, implementation of the LWRP 2020 Plan would be indirectly growth inducing. As indicated in the CEQA definition above, growth inducement itself is not necessarily an adverse impact. The CEQA Guidelines explain that the environmental effects of induced growth are considered indirect impacts of the proposed action. These indirect impacts or secondary effects of growth may result in significant, adverse impacts. Potential secondary effects of growth include increased demand on other community and public services and infrastructure, increased traffic and noise, and adverse environmental impacts such as degradation of air and water quality, degradation or loss of natural habitats, and conversion of agricultural and open space land to developed uses. Growth inducement may constitute an adverse impact if the growth is not consistent with the land use plans and growth management plans and policies for the area affected. Local land use plans provide for development patterns and growth policies that allow for the orderly expansion of urban development supported by adequate urban public services, such as water supply, roadway infrastructure, sewer service, Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

9 and solid waste service. A project that would induce disorderly growth, in conflict with the local land use plans, could indirectly cause additional adverse environmental impacts and impacts to other public services. Thus, to assess whether a growth-inducing project will result in adverse secondary effects, it is important to assess the degree to which the growth accommodated by a project would or would not be consistent with applicable land use plans. The population projections used to size the planned expansions at the LWRP are the most recently approved SCAG forecasts. These figures were incorporated into the 2001 Regional Transportation Plan Update (SCAG 2001). SCAG is the regional planning authority for most of Southern California (excluding San Diego County). SCAG s mission is to promote economic growth, personal well-being, and livable communities for all Southern California residents. SCAG population forecasts are the most widely accepted regional projections prepared in Southern California. SCAG forecasts are used in both the 1997 City of Lancaster General Plan and the County General Plan. Population trends for Antelope Valley, and specifically the City of Lancaster, indicate that population and households are anticipated to substantially increase by This is consistent with the growth and employment trend that has been occurring since the 1980s. Specifically, the population within the planning area for District No. 14 is expected to increase to 252,248 in The City of Lancaster General Plan projects a population of 296,500 in the city by the year This is consistent with the estimates used for the sizing of the LWRP. The City of Lancaster General Plan projects that growth may occur in the city core or in outlying areas to the east and northwest. Although the city boundaries extend northward to Avenue E in some areas, projected growth is not expected to expand north of Avenue H in the direction of the treatment plant. Currently, the northern portion of the city is generally undeveloped, with areas zoned for industrial uses. The City of Lancaster General Plan identifies a sphere of influence that extends from the City of Palmdale border to the south, Kern County to the north, and 110 th Street West to the west. The eastern boundary of the adopted sphere of influence is not defined. The Sphere of Influence is assigned by the County Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO). The existing District No. 14 service area is generally within the LAFCO-approved Sphere of Influence for Lancaster. The projected residential, commercial, and industrial growth areas identified in the City of Lancaster General Plan are all within the Lancaster Sphere of Influence. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

10 The LWRP 2020 Plan projects that District No. 14 will increase in size, absorbing the entire area north of the existing service area boundaries to the Kern County line. At this time, water and sewer service are not available north of Avenue E in this part of the County. The projected wastewater flow for the year 2020 of 26.0 mgd accounts for the projected growth in areas that are in the planning area for District No. 14, but are currently not within the service area. Although substantial development is not anticipated in these areas, the expanded service area and treatment capacity would remove an obstacle to growth. The growth that would be accommodated within the planning area is included in SCAG forecasts and is within the sphere of influence of the City of Lancaster. As such, the LWRP 2020 Plan includes these areas in calculating total projected wastewater flow. Federal regulations, 40 CFR, Part 51, Subpart W, require that publicly owned treatment works phase capacity expansion to avoid inducing growth to the extent possible. As such, the LWRP treatment capacity has increased incrementally since its start up in The LWRP 2020 Plan provides for a twophase expansion over the next 17 years and would be constructed in accordance with actual growth. The second phase (Stage VI) could be delayed or accelerated to match actual growth. Local cities and counties have the ultimate responsibility for planning and development. District No. 14 does not have the authority to limit growth, but rather is required to prevent sewage system overflows within its service area and avoid discharging untreated sewage into local receiving waters. If the LWRP treatment capacity is not expanded, new development could not be provided with adequate wastewater treatment. The projected growth will exceed the current treatment capacity in Secondary Effects of Growth Growth in and of itself would not be considered a significant impact, but the indirect, secondary effects of growth could be considered significantly adverse. The growth-related impacts from the implementation of the LWRP 2020 Plan would be indirect because they would result from the additional population growth accommodated by the project. Transportation, air quality, biological resources, housing, and public service impacts are the focus of growth-related impact analysis. Traffic congestion, air pollution, and increasing demand for the provision of public services such as water supply, solid waste disposal, electricity, and gas are significant secondary impacts of growth. In the Antelope Valley, air quality, energy resources, and biological resources are significantly impacted resources that will be further impacted as growth increases. Table summarizes the secondary effects of growth and mitigation measures. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

11 Chapter 4 Environmental Setting, Impacts and Mitigation Table Impacts of Secondary Effects of Growth and Mitigation Measures ISSUE GENERAL IMPACT SIGNIFICANCE Air Quality As development increases in the Antelope Valley, mobile source air Potentially Significant emissions will increase. Construction dust emissions would also increase. Transportation Energy Land Use and Housing Water Resources Economic Development Biological Resources Noise Source: Environmental Science Associates Increased growth causes congestion on existing roadways, requiring substantial infrastructure improvements. Energy resources are stretched thin in California. The Antelope Valley lies within the service area of Southern California Edison. Increased growth will increase energy demand. As the Antelope Valley s population continues to grow, there would be a continued conversion of agricultural and open space lands to urban uses, there could be an increase in annexations and incorporations, and there is the potential for decreased housing affordability. Growth in population and employment could lead to the degradation of surface water and groundwater from pollutants released to urban storm runoff or allowed to infiltrate to groundwater. Growth will require increased potable water supplies. Expansion of wastewater treatment capacity would allow the area served by District No. 14 to remain competitive in attracting both industries that rely on the availability of wastewater treatment capacity and growth in the housing market needed for improving the subregion s jobs/housing ratio. Growth in population and employment could lead to habitat loss from encroaching development, fragmentation of remaining habitats, and loss of marsh-type habitats. Growth in population and employment could lead to increased noise levels from major transportation facilities and new major industrial developments; such noise levels could be potentially incompatible with surrounding land uses. Potentially Significant Less than significant Potentially significant Potentially significant Beneficial Potentially significant Potentially significant MITIGATION MEASURE TO REDUCE TO LESS-THAN-SIGNIFICANT The AVAQMD will establish an AQMP to assist in meeting the goals of the attainment plan for compliance with federal ambient air quality standards. SCAG, Caltrans, the County Department of Public Works, and the City of Lancaster include substantial planning efforts to accommodate growth and encourage mass transit. The California Public Utilities Commission regulates power sales and will provide for the establishment of new energy production facilities to compensate for the current shortage. The City of Lancaster and the County have prepared land use plans with open space and agricultural preserves. The cities and regional water suppliers should prepare longrange plans to ensure the availability of high quality water to accommodate the projected growth. Recycled water should be utilized as a resource to augment water supplies and to prevent groundwater overdraft. The RWQCB-LR should promote best management practices for cities to implement to reduce urban and construction runoff. None is required. County has developed SEAs for the protection of biological resources. The West Mojave Plan identifies habitat management areas that could provide adequate mitigation for impacts to listed rare, threatened, or endangered species from the effects of growth. Other DFG California, RWQCB, and USFWS permitting processes assist in minimizing impacts to sensitive species. The City of Lancaster promotes urban core development to reduce the urban sprawl model of development. The noise ordinance establishes allowable noise levels within urban core areas. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR March 2004

12 Chapter 4 Environmental Setting, Impacts and Mitigation Regional Management Plans The authority to implement mitigation measures that would help to reduce impacts related to increased growth in the Antelope Valley reside with the local jurisdictions that control land use as well as state and federal agencies. To address regionally significant secondary effects of growth, numerous regional planning efforts have been conducted to assess and mitigate adverse impacts. The 1998 Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide (SCAG 98), prepared by SCAG, combines regional planning efforts into a single focused document. The SCAG 98 updates population, housing, and employment estimates for the six-county SCAG region. In addition to growth management, the SCAG 98 addresses several core elements including transportation, air quality, water quality, and hazardous waste management. These elements provide a basis for regional conformity review for federal regulations (as promulgated in 40 CFR, Part 51, Subpart W). The SCAG 98 forecasts that additional growth in Southern California will continue to have significant and unavoidable adverse impacts, particularly with respect to air pollution. Growth will have significant impacts on transportation and some public services. In June 2001, SCAG certified an EIR for the SCAG The SCAG 2001 acts as a long-term planning and management plan for the regional transportation system, providing mitigation measures to offset the impacts of growth projected in the SCAG 98. The SCAG 2001 updates population, housing, and employment forecasts from those used in the 1996 Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide. The SCAG 2001 EIR concludes that implementation of the SCAG 2001 would cause significant unavoidable impacts to population and housing, land use, noise, aesthetics, and biological resources. Beneficial impacts to transportation and air quality were identified, providing some relief from these two major secondary effects of growth. In addition, the SCAG 2001 proposes a new transportation system (called the Maglev) that would connect the Palmdale Regional Airport with the Los Angeles International Airport by rail, thereby reducing air emissions from commuters. Although this project has not yet been approved, the SCAG 2001 acknowledges that implementation of the Maglev would improve future air quality. The most recent Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) for the Antelope Valley was updated in 1997 by the SCAQMD. The AQMP analyzes projected air quality impacts and provides mitigation measures to offset those impacts from projected growth outlined in the SCAG 98. The AQMP is a required part of SCAQMD s compliance with the federal Clean Air Act. The recently established AVAQMD has yet to complete an AQMP, separate from the SCAQMD, but will in the near future. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

13 Chapter 4 Environmental Setting, Impacts and Mitigation District No. 14 is entirely within the service area of the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency (AVEK). AVEK is the water wholesaler for the area. The Urban Water Management Planning Act of 1983 requires that local water suppliers serving over 3,000 customers prepare Urban Water Management Plans (UWMP) to assess water demand and available supplies. AVEK has prepared an UWMP that includes measures to meet the future water demand of the Antelope Valley. However, water availability could be a limiting factor to growth in the future for the Antelope Valley. Currently, water supplies are augmented with groundwater in the region. If the groundwater basin is adjudicated in the future, limits to water extraction could limit growth in the region. The City of Lancaster General Plan identifies measures to reduce urban sprawl for the purpose of decreasing the impacts of growth on biological resources and air quality. The City of Lancaster also encourages business development to reduce the worker commute traffic out of Lancaster to greater Los Angeles on SR-14. The County General Plan has proposed substantial development restrictions within SEAs to reduce long-term effects on biological resources. The proposed Antelope Valley SEA #7 encompasses over 250 square miles. The West Mojave Plan defines a regional strategy for conserving plant and animal species and their habitats and defines an efficient, equitable, and cost-effective process for complying with threatened and endangered species laws. The West Mojave Plan is being jointly prepared by agencies having administrative responsibility or regulatory authority over species of concern within the planning area. The plan will enable the USFWS and DFG to issue programmatic biological opinions, incidental take permits, and no surprises assurances to each of the participating agencies at the conclusion of the planning process. The plan area extends from Olancha in Inyo County on the north to the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains on the south, and from the Antelope Valley on the west to the Mojave National Preserve on the east. The project site is located in Antelope Valley and is, therefore, subject to the guidelines of the West Mojave Plan. Mitigation Measures Alternatives 1, 2, 3, and 4 Mitigation Measure : District No. 14 shall phase capacity to accommodate actual growth. Mitigation Measure : District No. 14 shall comply with permitting requirements of responsible agencies to minimize the secondary impacts of growth. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004

14 Chapter 4 Environmental Setting, Impacts and Mitigation Significance After Mitigation Significant, unavoidable. Final LWRP 2020 Plan EIR May 2004