Market and Power An Energy Security Concern

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1 Market and Power An Energy Security Concern How to Face the European Gas Security Needs? By Dr. Behrooz Abdolvand FFU Berlin International Conference Climate Protection, Energy Policies and Wind Power Innovation Courses in Comparison Leopoldskron Palace, Salzburg August 28 th September 1 st, 2006

2 G8 Plan for world Energy Security (2006) Highlighting the Problems. 50% Increase in world energy consumption in the next 25 years. 80% from the above consumption must be provided by Coal (63% current reserves of global hydro Carbon) Oil (19% current reserves of global hydro Carbon) Gas (18% current reserves of global hydro Carbon)

3 World Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe) Millionen Tonnen Öläquivalent (M toe) Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Average annual growth rate ( ): 1.7 % World Energy Outlook; 2004.

4 European Energy Demand ( ) 2000 Mtoe Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal World Energy Outlook; 2004.

5 G8 Solutions to the Problem Liberalization of international energy market. Promotion of renewable energy. Saving energy consumption Effective utilizations of energy Sector diversification and sources diversification. Massive joint investment among energy producing companies and countries.

6 The Structural Liberalization and Consolidation of Energy Market in Last Decade. Liberalization and privatization of energy market has caused economic competition among the oil companies and more investment in energy market. As a consequence of consolidation of the energy market mergers of multinational oil companies took place which increased their investment capacity and also the regulation of the market. As a result of the liberalization we see the development and growth of intra markets The development and growth of intra markets such as spot and future markets has increased oil price and has increased the profitability of investment in the energy sector.

7 The positive impact of Market liberalization and consolidation on oil sector. Long term contracts between producers and consumers has reduced by 60% in Oil Market. Short term spot and future market contracts has increased by 40% in Oil Market. And has caused the liberalization of oil market.

8 Security problems in Gas Sector Global market does not exist. Market is regional. There are separate markets in European Union, North America, South America and Far East The first three markets obtain Gas from the use of regional pipelines and the last market mainly from LNG Price building is differently in different markets. 94% of the contracts are long terms and depend on price of oil based on Take or Pay rules. 6% of trading takes place in spot and future merging markets and their pricing don't depend on oil. This level is not enough for market liberalisation. The new players on the market China and India have no interest in short term contracts.

9 Liberalization of Gas Market for Increased Security A reduction in long term contracts to 60% Abolishment of take or pay contracts An increase of 40% demand for LNG in spot and future markets Absolutely independence of gas price from oil price Price of pipeline gas to be set according to the price of LNG in spot and future market Diversification and liberalization of pipeline structure based on enforcing entry-exit rules.

10 Minimal Requirements for Security of Gas market in the absence of global Market Adequate gas infrastructures for consumers Stable political relations between producers and consumers A realistic price mechanism Legal security for sellers and buyers

11 Elements of Geopolitical Balance in Gas Market accessibility to regional reserves accessibility to global reserves

12 Main Gas reserves in the world (BCM) World Energy Outlook; 2004.

13 Incremental Demand for Natural Gas by Region World Energy Outlook 2004

14 Map of Natural Gas Pipelines

15 Potential Gas producers for EU. Russia 26% Iran 15% Qatar 14% Algeria 2.5% Iraq 1.8% Turkmenistan 1.6% Egypt 1.1% Azerbaijan 0.8%

16 The gas supply to the European Union so far Internal producers (supply in %) Great Britain 22 % Netherlands 13 % Norway 15 % External producers (supply in %) Russia 27 % Algeria 12 %

17 The gas supply to the European Union needs a change. The British and Dutch reserves are drawing to an end The European Union will be more dependent on an external gas supply in future. Algeria has with 2.5% of the worldwide reserves hardly capacities to extend its market share in Europe. Russia owns 26.7% of the world reserves and can increase its capacities in the gas supply to the European Union. But Russia is not able to increase its production enough, Europe needs to look elsewhere for its gas needs. Therefore Europes external dependency on Russian gas will fall from today s 70% to 30% in 2030.

18 Russia Tries to become Europe main supply route. By controlling the smaller gas producing countries of the former Soviet Union and the neighboring states. 15% of the Russian natural gas exports come from the Caspian Region already today. Russia is trying to control the infrastructure of neighboring gas and non gas producing countries in the region. Russia is trying to create an OPEC like organization in Gas sector by the help of Iran, Algeria and Qatar.

19 Russia participate from investment and capital Market. Commerzbank Dresdner Bank Gazprombank Group Raiffeisenbank. Deutsche Bank

20 Multi Dimensional Cooperation is the Russia's strategy for more control over Consumers and producers. Belarus Armenia Georgia Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Ukraine Russia Bolivien Argentinien Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Iran Brasilien Algerian Venezuela

21 Russia participated in the World as an Energy Super Power. Petro Canada Venezuela PdVSA Bolivien YPFB Argentinean TGS Brasilia PB BASF Algeria Sonatrach Chevron Gazprom E.on Statoil Shell BP ENI Total Conoco- Phillips Hydro

22 How can Europe free itself from Russia control? Europe should increase the LNG import to % in the next decade. Europe needs to diversify its infrastructures in a way to have access to the Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, and north African reserves

23 Nabucco-Pipeline: An experimental Model for Diversification Der Standard;

24 Thank you for your time and Attention. Are there any questions?

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