India Solar Market Update Q Executive Summary.

Transcription

1 India Solar Market Update Q Executive Summary

2 India Solar Demand Forecast Annual Installations (MW) India Solar Demand Forecast (MW) 12,000 Annual Rooftop Solar Installations (MW) Annual Utility-scale Solar Installations (MW) Cumulative Solar Installations (MW) 8,000 4,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Cumulative Installations (MW) Total solar installations in Q came to 2,247 MW, which were up 300 MW compared to Q2 when 1,947 MW were installed. In the first nine months of 2017 over 7.1 GW of solar installations were added. Mercom is forecasting calendar year (CY) 2017 solar installations in the range of 9.5 to 10 GW. The pipeline of utility-scale projects is currently at about 11.5 GW and another 5.6 GW of tenders are pending auction. A total of 1,456 MW of solar were tendered and 1,232 MW of solar were auctioned in Q3 2017, down from Q when 3,408 MW of solar were tendered and 2,505 MW of solar were auctioned. The lowest bid quoted in Q was 2.65 (~$0.0408)/kWh in the recently held Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Limited (GUVNL) 500 MW solar auction F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 0 Renewables comprise almost 19 percent of India's total installed capacity with solar accounting for over 5 percent. Among renewables, solar accounts for over 27 percent of the installed capacity. Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017) Cumulative solar rooftop installations in India totaled 1,345 MW at the end of Q3 2017

3 All India Cumulative Utility-Scale Solar Installations by Policy Type All India Cumulative Utility-scale Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW) 2,500 2,000 1,500 Cumulative Large-Scale Solar Installations ~15.7 GW 1, Source: Mercom India Capital Research Group (Dec (Sep 2016) 2017)

4 Quarterly Solar Installations in 2017 Solar Installation in 2017 by Quarter (MW) 3,500 2,955 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,947 1,500 1,000 Rooftop Solar Utility-Scale 2,247 Total solar installations in Q totaled 2,247 MW, up 300 MW compared to Q2, when 1,947 MW were installed. In the first nine months of 2017 over 7.1 GW of solar installations were added. Utility-scale solar installations quarter-over-quarter were up by almost 15 percent. Installed rooftop solar in the third quarter was up by approximately 18 percent compared to the second quarter of The first quarter of 2017 was the strongest in terms of total installed capacity, largely due to few projects that were slated to be commissioned in 2016 but were connected in Q Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017) Click here for the list of projects announced and commissioned in the third quarter of 2017

5 Policy Updates India: Utility-Scale Solar Projects by Status (MW) 18,000 12,000 6,000 Policy Updates: Over 4.1 GW of solar projects have been commissioned under various phases of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) so far: Migration program (PV - 48 MW and CSP 2.5 MW), Phase I Batch 1 (PV 140 MW and CSP 200 MW), Phase I Batch 2 (PV 330 MW), Phase II Batch 1 (PV 680 MW), Phase II Batch 2 (PV 1,780 MW), and other programs. JNNSM - Phase II Batch 2 State Specific Bundling Program (NTPC) The MNRE has specified 3,000 MW of PV projects under this program, implemented by NTPC through open competitive bidding. These projects are spread across states including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh. JNNSM - Phase II Batch 3 (SECI) Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has called for tenders amounting to 2,510 MW under JNNSM Phase II Batch 3 - State Specific VGF Program. 0 In-Operation Under Development Tendered Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017) JNNSM - Phase II Batch 4 (SECI) Under this program 5,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV projects on a build, own and operate basis with VGF benefits are to be developed. Tenders for 3,650 MW projects under this program have been issued, out of which 1,000 MW tenders were cancelled by SECI. JNNSM - Phase II Batch 5 (SECI CPSU) This batch aims to set up 1 GW of grid-connected solar PV power projects for Central Public Sector Undertakings (CPSUs) and Government of India organizations for either self-use or sale to third-parties or merchants.

6 Solar Tender and Auction Activity 4,000 India Solar Tenders and Auctions by Quarter (MW) Tenders Auctions 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)

7 Average Solar Module Price Trends in India Chinese and Indian Module ASPs Q Chinese solar module ASPs increased by 14 percent in Q3 compared to the second quarter of Indian Module ASP ($/W) Chinese Modules ($/W) During the same period in 2016, Chinese module prices actually dropped by 14 percent. Price quotes for Chinese modules in India ranged from $0.30 (~ 19.4)/W to $0.38 (~ 24.6)/W based on order size and other parameters Module prices in the third quarter were almost 20 percent more than what developers had expected. This highlights a huge gap between module price forecasts and the reality of rising prices Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Although there was a rise in polysilicon and wafer prices in the third quarter, heightened Chinese installation activity is the primary underlying factor dictating module price trends. Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)

8 Bidding Trends in Reverse Auctions Lowest Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India ( /kwh) Low Tariff ( /kwh) Q Low Tariff/Bids ( /kwh) NSM PI B1 (Mah) NSM PI B2 (Raj) Odisha B1 Karnataka PI MP PI Odisha B2 Chhattisgarh Karnataka PII MP PII Punjab PI (C1) Punjab PI (C2) Rajasthan UP B1 AP PII Bihar Karnataka PIII Telangana PI Uttarkhand UP B2 Karnataka PIV-Nov 14 MP PIII-Jul 15 Punjab PII (C1)-Feb 15 Punjab PII (C2)-Feb 15 Punjab PII (C3)-Feb 15 Telangana PII G1-Aug 15 Telangana PII G2-Aug 15 UP B3-Sep 15 Punjab PIII-Sep 15 Uttarkhand (Type-I)-Nov 15 NSM PII B2 (AP)-Nov 15 NSM PII B2 (AP)-Dec 15 NSM PII B2 (Raj)-Jan 16 NSM PII B2 (UP)-Jan 16 Haryana-Jan 16 NSM PII B2 (Kar)-Apr 16 NSM PII B2 (Telangana)-May 16 Jharkhand-May 16 Karnataka P-V (Gen)-May 16 NSM PII B2 (Raj)-Jul 16 Rewa Solar Project (MP) - Feb 17 NSM PII B2, Kadapa (AP) - Apr 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P4 (Raj) - May 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P3 (Raj) - May 17 GUVNL (Guj) - Sep Note: AP Phase II - The range of first-year tariff offered by the successful bidders was Rs /kWh with a 3% per annum escalation for the first 10 years, then flat thereafter. MP: Rewa Ultra Mega Solar project - low bid of Rs.2.97/kWh tariff escalating at Rs.0.05/kWh for 15 years. Levelized tariff comes to Rs. 3.30/kWh. Source: Mercom India Research (Sep 2017)

9 Market Leaders Our quarterly report includes market share rankings Top Utility-scale Project Developers with Installed Capacity Top Utility-scale Project Developers with Under-development Pipeline Top Solar Inverter Suppliers in India Some of the market leaders: Top Solar Rooftop Developers Top Solar Module Manufacturer in India Top Solar Cell Manufacturers in India Top Utility-scale EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity Top Utility-scale Third Party EPC Players with Commissioned Capacity Top Solar Module Suppliers in India Complete Market Share Analysis and Rankings for Each Category Available in Our Full Report.

10 State Policies Andhra Pradesh Updates: To facilitate the large-scale grid integration of solar and wind power while maintaining grid stability, the Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (APERC) released new regulations for the forecasting, scheduling, and deviation settlement of solar and wind generation. Jharkhand Updates: The Jharkhand Renewable Energy Development Agency (JREDA) issued a tender to develop 1,200 MW of solar projects in December In Q3 2017, JREDA issued assurances that it would sign PPAs for a total of 685 MW of solar projects out of the 1.1 GW for which LOIs were initially issued. Madhya Pradesh Updates: The Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (MPERC) has proposed the application of scheduling and merit order dispatch principles to energy generation from co-generating and renewable energy generating units from time to time, implying that it wants to end the must-run status of renewables. Haryana Updates: The HERC released a discussion paper on HERC (Terms and Conditions for the Determination of Tariff from Renewable Energy Sources, Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO), and Renewable Energy Certificate (REC)) Regulations In the draft, the HERC determined the useful life of 25 years for a solar project. Complete state by state updates are covered in our full report

11 Top 10 Solar States in India 15.7 GW 2 GW Cumulative Solar Capacity Solar Installations Q State Ranking Based on Total Installed Utility-Scale Solar as of Sep 2017 The top three states which, now have over 2 GW of installed solar capacity, represent approximately 43 percent of the total installed capacity in the country 1 Telangana 12 Total Installations - 2,479 MW 6 Gujarat Total Installations - 1,291 MW Andhra Pradesh 3 Total Installations - 2,195 MW 7 Madhya Pradeh Total Installations - 1,273 MW Data from Mercom's India Solar Project Tracker Rajasthan 4 Total Installations - 2,089 MW 8 Punjab Total Installations MW 9 Karnataka 5 Tamil Nadu Total Installations - 1,797 MW Total Installations - 1,648 MW Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Total Installations MW Total Installations MW

12 India Solar Market Update Q Mercom India s India Solar Market Update provides you with the most comprehensive report on the Indian solar sector. The report, a first-of-its-kind, delivers high-quality research and analysis, facts and figures, and forecasts for global solar professionals. Primary data for the report is directly collected from government agencies, developers, investors, manufacturers, installers and other industry stakeholders. The report offers details on prevailing market conditions, issues and challenges, opportunities, and the outlook for India s solar industry. Click here for more information or to purchase a copy of India Solar Market Update Q The report includes: Quarterly and YTD Installations Forecasts Updates on Tenders and Auctions Policy Updates and Analysis State-by-State Installations and Module Prices Tariffs Project Costs Imports/Export Activity Solar Power Generation Market Share and Rankings Quarterly Survey of Solar Supply Chain Other Important Updates Who Needs to Purchase this Report? Project Developers Component Manufacturers Utility/IPPs EPC Provider BOS Suppliers Investment Firms/Funds Investors, Banks and Financial Institutions Installers Foreign Entrants

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