Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator Driving down the cost of offshore wind. 21 May 2013 Phil de Villiers

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1 Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator Driving down the cost of offshore wind 21 May 2013 Phil de Villiers 1

2 Carbon Trust mission is to accelerate the move to a low carbon economy Technology We help develop low carbon technologies Collaborative R&D Technology scouting Innovation programme design Advice We advise businesses and governments on low carbon opportunities Measurement We measure and certify environmental footprint of products and services 2

3 Costs must come down Otherwise projects won t get built Cost per MW installed ( m/mw) Drivers Rising commodity prices Bottlenecks in supply chain Complexity of sites, distance, depth FX rate volatility Robin Rigg Greater Gabbard Thanet Rhyl Flats 2.5 Gunfleet Sands 2.0 Scroby Sands Burbo Lynn 1.5 North Hoyle Kentish Flats 1.0 Barrow Year ROCs increased from 1.5 to 2 300MW Source: Emerging Energy Research 2009; Garrad Hassan 2011; Renewable Energy World.com

4 Projects are becoming more technically challenging Larger, further from shore, in deeper water, with bigger turbines Mean number of turbines R1 R2 R3 Moray Firth 1.3GW Firth of Forth 3.5GW Mean distance to shore (km) Dogger Bank 9GW R Irish Sea 4.2GW Hornsea 4GW R2 R3 Water depth East Anglia 7.2GW 70% of R3 licenced capacity is 30-60m deep Atlantic Array 1.5GW West Isle of Wight 0.9GW Hastings 0.7GW Source: UK Ports for the Offshore Wind Industry: Time to Act, DECC / BVG Associates, 5 February 2009, p.17; Financial Times, January 2010; Carbon Trust analysis 4

5 Innovation could deliver 25% cost reduction by 2020 TINA (UK waters) TCE pathways (4 to 6MW, site B) % % 66.0 Today Collection & transmission Development O&M Installation Foundations Turbine 2020 Today Collection & transmission Development O&M Installation Foundations Turbine 2020 Note: TINA suggests further cost reduction is possible from turbines if there is more competition up to ~15% LCOE reduction Source: TINA Executive Summary 17 Jan 2012; initial TCE pathways innovation model outputs 2 Feb

6 Can 25% cost reduction be delivered by 2020? To commercialise new ideas, we need demonstrations Learning by doing 7% reduction Innovation 25% reduction If we don t act quickly, opportunity to use lower cost technologies at start of Round 3 will be lost We can only achieve cost reduction if industry works together We need more offshore demonstrations to support market entry of new turbine and foundations designs Source: TINA Executive Summary 17 Jan 2012 Industry needs to share data and learnings effectively to accelerate cost reduction 6

7 Offshore Wind Accelerator Objective: Reduce cost of energy by 10% in time for Round 3 Joint industry project involving 9 developers + Carbon Trust Only developers are members Aligned interests Commercially-focused Preferential access to new technology 45-60m programme 2/3 industry, 1/3 public (DECC) Excellent leverage >12x 77% (36GW) of licensed Offshore Wind Accelerator capacity in UK waters Commitment to 30 June 2014, with option to extend to

8 Five research areas Cost of energy CAPEX OPEX Yield Foundations Access systems Electrical systems Cable installation Cost of finance Wake effects 8

9 Access systems Market screening suggested technologies unsuited to R3 New O&M strategies and technologies required Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator

10 Access systems What were we looking for? Transfer systems, infield vessels and launch & recovery systems Competition results 450 entries 30 countries 13 finalists Note: Image represents Round 3 site with V MW. Drawings are of 90m mothership and 30m in-field vessel, drawn to scale. Original picture is of Thanet, courtesy of Vattenfall 2010 Source: Carbon Trust

11 Access systems Thirteen finalists Most have been tank tested or are at prototype stage 11

12 Access systems Transfer systems Reaching factory test or prototype testing phases Mots - Momac Auto Brow Ad Hoc Marine, Otso TAS Houlder-BMT Nigel Gee 12

13 Access systems Nauti-Craft 8m prototype is under construction following tank testing Wrap mode Pitch mode Source: Nauti-craft 2013 Roll mode 13

14 Access systems Fjellstrand Won an order to build six vessels in 2012 Source: Fjellstrand 2012,

15 Access systems Divex LARS is being tank tested Retrofit cradle system lifts vessels from 8m RIBs to 20m cats Source: Divex

16 Access systems Sea trials are starting Sea trial procedures have been developed to compare performance of vessels and transfer systems New P-plots characterise performance to wave height, direction, period OWA members have agreed to start sea trials ambition is to get P-plots adopted by industry 16 Image: TAS

17 Access systems Why are we developing P-plots? Current methods for assessing access system performance are limited Industry typically uses wave height or significant wave Methods do not consider factors such as wave direction and period OWA believes more quantitative and robust measures are required Not just met ocean sensitivities, but also speed, capacity, comfort, safety, fuel economy, charter costs This would help improve Vessel and transfer system development Vessel and transfer system selection O&M modelling We are developing performance plots (P-plots) to achieve these objectives 17

18 Access systems Access system performance P-plots will improve vessel and transfer system selection P-plots will quantify turbine accessibility Transit from port or mother ship to turbine Approach to turbines for transfer Transfer from vessel to turbine During sea trials, speed, fuel economy, operating costs, safety and capacity will be recorded Source: OWA sea trial procedures P-plots and trial data can be used in O&M models to identify the access system most suited to wind farm s metocean conditions 18

19 Access systems First trial is of MOTS 500 at Baltic I Source: Momac

20 Access systems Second trial is of MaXccess at Sheringham Shoal Source: Statoil,

21 Foundations Foundation competition 104 entries, four finalists Gifford BMT Freyssinet Gravity base foundation Shortlist SPT Offshore Self installing wind turbine Universal Foundation Source: Carbon Trust OWA 2011 Keystone Engineering Inward battered guide 21 structure (IBGS) twisted jacket

22 Foundations SPT Offshore self installing wind turbine successfully tank tested 1:40 scale model Source: SPT Offshore,

23 Foundations Keystone installed at Hornsea, October km offshore, 30m depth first R3 met mast Images: Keystone Engineering 2009; Heiko Lindenthal, REpower 2011; Mainstream

24 Foundations Universal Foundation installed at Dogger Bank, February km offshore, 25m depth Benefits Simple fabrication Few marine operations Fred. Olsen end-to-end EPC offer Significant cost reduction potential Image: Forewind,

25 Foundations Next step: demonstrate foundations with turbines OWA members and Carbon Trust are working together to demonstrate novel foundations with turbines and to share learnings Funding is available to incentivise demonstrations This aims to address the demonstration site bottleneck Things need to happen quickly if the foundations (and new turbines) are going to be used in early Round 3 projects Government could help by streamlining planning and consent to allow developers to use novel designs within commercial sites 25 Source: Keystone twisted jacket, SeaEnergy 2011

26 Wake effects Modelling wake effects is complex Stability Boundary layer Wakes recovery Turbulence Blockage effects Wave / wind interaction And it s going to get harder - Larger wind farms, deeper arrays - Wind shadow effects within zones - Stability of far-shore vs near-shore sites - Larger turbines reaching into boundary layer Image: offshorewind.biz

27 Wake effects In 2009, predictive accuracy of wake effects models varied 1.2 Model A Normalised Power Colum n Model B Model C Model D Model Db Model Ea Coloured lines represent Model Ec different Model F models Model F or Stable model variants UpWind Meas ured Data Upper 25% Low er 25% Finance community had limited confidence in accuracy of models Industry believed models under-predicted wakes by 10% Some farms found to be too closely packed Little data available for testing wakes models 27

28 Wake effects New wake effects models developed Models benchmarked vs new OWA data; most promising enhanced WindModeller Fuga - Sophisticated, complex - Accuracy improved with additiona of more complex physics - Builds on off-the-shelf engineering tool, but with usability enhancements Source: C. Montavon et al., Offshore Wind Accelerator: Wake Modelling Using CFD, EWEA Conference March 2011; DTU Fuga Linearised CFD novel, fast - AEP prediction for 225 turbines - Traditional models: 20-weeks (mainframe) - New model: 30s on desktop PC - Allows many more design studies to be undertaken to identify higher-yield layout designs 28

29 Wake effects Carbon Trust launch 2m project to increase energy yields from offshore wind farms Lack of data has hindered development of wake models our measurement campaign at Rødsand II will change this Six LIDAR units have been installed - 2 x long-range LIDARs to measure wakes within farm - 4 x nacelle-mounted LIDARs to record WTG inflow and wakes Image: Koppelius

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35 Wake effects What are we doing? Improving understanding of physics, universality of results, increasing accuracy of wakes models High resolution measurements High frequency data loggers have been fitted to the met mast and to turbines to get higher resolution wind speed and direction data This allows detailed blind testing of wake effects models to assess accuracy Bulk flow characterisation Two long-range scanned pulsed LIDARs have been installed to measure wind gusts within wind farms This allows CFD models to be validated, to allow them to be used to predict wakes for different layouts and spacing with more confidence Turbulence characterisation Four LIDARs, aft and forward facing have been fitted o turbines to measure turbulence approaching and behind turbines This allows will allow dissipation and merging of wake effects to be understood so that physics of wakes models can be improved 35

36 Wake effects Initial blind tests of OWA wakes models show good accuracy Greater accuracy, less uncertainty enables debt finance for construction Reduces cost of energy Addresses financing gap for Round 3 Power of Row M turbines (normalised by K1): Case Study 2 30 direction bin WS=10m/s WD=304 36

37 Conclusions Industry needs to work together to drive down costs OWA is allowing developers to share wind farm data effectively This is allowing Vessel and transfer system performance to be measured in more sophisticated ways improving access system selection, O&M modelling, and allowing designers to improve their products More accurate wake effects models to be developed, reducing uncertainty which should allow debt financing of construction for the first time in UK, reducing financing costs The Carbon Trust and the nine OWA members continue to work together to commercialise innovations to drive down cost Further demonstration is required to deliver cost reductions relating to foundations and turbines to market Need incentives to compensate developers for cost, risk and complexity Need to make it easier to demonstrate on commercial sites streamlining planning and consenting to allow novel technologies would be a start 37

38 Thank you