emissions in the Indonesian manufacturing sector Rislima F. Sitompul and Anthony D. Owen

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1 Mtgaton optons for energy-related CO 2 emssons n the Indonesan manufacturng sector Rslma F. Stompul and Anthony D. Owen School of Economcs, The Unversty of New South Wales, Sydney, Australa

2 Why mtgaton Manufacturng sector s a major contrbutor to Indonesa s aggregate level of CO2 emssons, Prevous study on decomposton on energy-related CO2 emssons ndcated the need for emsson abatement technologes n the majorty of manufacturng sub-sectors n Indonesa The ncreasng trend towards coal consumpton n manufacturng ndustry has become a major envronmental concern for the country. A polcy on fuel subsdy reducton s beng mplemented that can stmulate the demand for energy effcency.

3 Roads to ratfyng Kyoto Protocol 1992 Indonesa sgned the UNFCCC 1994 Indonesa ratfed the UNFCCC through Law No. 6/ Indonesa sgned the Kyoto Protocol The frst natonal communcaton on clmate changeconventon June 2004 The enactment of Law No resulted n a legal bass for ratfyng the Kyoto Protocol Dec 2004 Indonesa submtted Kyoto Protocol ratfcaton nstrument to the UN Secretary General n New York a study assessng the mpact on the Indonesan economy of mplementng the Kyoto Protocol would be very relevant, although Indonesa has no formal commtment Indonesa s ratfcaton of the Kyoto Protocol s expected to brng ts envronmental polcy nto greater domestc promnence

4 The objectves The man objectve: to fnd the most effcent mtgaton scenaro, defned as that whch would gve a specfed reducton level n CO2 emssons wth mnmal mpact on manufacturng actvty. In ths paper: to report the ntal stages of the study (estmatng the mpact of a carbon tax)

5 Man model 1. Estmatng the mpact of the carbon tax Translog cost functon 2. Investgatng mtgaton measures Clean Development Mechansms Tradable permts In ths study, these mechansms are analyzed for ther effectveness and the level of actvty requred to brdge the gap between the desred level of CO2 emssons and the level of CO2 emssons derved from future energy demand. 3. Energy effcency ntatves. Carbon tax: affects fuel mx and reduces fuel demand. the ncrease n energy prces as a result of the carbon tax should promote energy effcency mprovements Adoptng energy effcency ntatves: would assst the sector to acheve the need for future energy demand

6 Translog cost functon The aggregate producton functon for manufacturng sub-sectors Q = f [ K, L, E [ C, O, G, EL )] The cost functon takes the form C = C [ P, P, P Q ] K L E, Then the aggregate energy functon can be wrtten as: E = E ( C, O, G, EL ) The energy cost functon can be stated as P = E P ( PO PC PG PEL ) The fuel cost functon of energy sub-model takes the form: 1 = γ ln PE α 0+ β ln PE + 2 j j ln The fuel cost share functon n the cost of aggregate energy, takes the form S E = β + γ ln P,, j = O, C, G, EL j j E P S E s the cost shares of the fuel n the costs of aggregate energy, S = 1, wth requres the followng restrctons. β = 1 ; γ j = γ j ; γ j = 0 The Allen partal elastctes are gven by: σ = γ ; σ = (γ + S S ) / S S, j 2 2 ( + S S ) / S The prce elastctes of demand are calculated as: ε = σ S ; ε = σ, j j j S j j j E P Ej j j E

7 The Data based on the annual survey of large and medum scale manufacturng ndustres ( ). Database: value added, fuel expendture and the amount of fuel used (ol, coal, natural gas, and electrcty) n the two dgt manufacturng sector (ISIC 31 to ISIC 39). Fuel shares n the manufacturng sector Subsector ISIC Ol Coal Gas Elect Ol Coal Gas Elect Food Textle Wood Paper Chemcal Non-metal Basc metal Fab. metal Total

8 Data: Level of CO2 emssons from the manufacturng sector CO 2 emssons CO 2 emssons by fuel (%) SECTOR ISIC ton CO 2 % Ol Coal Gas Electrcty Food 31 12,060, Textle 32 21,222, Wood 33 5,581, Paper 34 21,919, Chemcal 35 14,519, Non-metal 36 27,441, Basc metal 37 11,067, Fab. metal 38 10,852, TOTAL 125,136,

9 Data constrants Energy prces n Indonesa may not actually reflect compettve market prces (hghly regulated and mght not represent the true opportunty costs of the fuel). Possbltes of measurement error. Ths could result n sgnfcant volatlty estmated fuel prces. Whether fuel demand was actual unconstraned demand or constraned by supply avalablty (whether fuel demand reflected a free market mechansm).

10 The Results of translog model some of the parameter estmates are not statstcally sgnfcant at 5% sgnfcance level. the low values of R-squared n some fuel cost share equatons; lack of accuracy n the data could cause the nsgnfcant results and small R 2 s. the partal elastctes of energy demand could provde a relatvely clear pcture how fuel demand changed n response to changes n manufacturng actvty.

11 Own prce elastctes of energy demand Own-prce elastctes are mostly negatves For total manufacturng sector (ISIC 3) the own prce elastctes : for ol; for coal; for gas; and for electrcty. The own prce elastctes for electrcty are hgher, whle the own prce elastctes for coal relatvely lower than generally found n related studes.

12 Table: Own prce elastctes of energy demand ISIC Sub-sector ε OO ε CC ε GG ε ELEL 31Food Textle Wood Paper Chemcal Non-metal Basc met Fab. metal Total

13 Cross prce elastctes of energy demand Substtuton pattern among fuels are more domnant than complementary as most of the cross prce elastctes are postve. It s observed that ol s weakly substtutable wth other fuels, except n basc metal ndustres. There s a tendency for ol to be substtuted by gas Demand for ol and electrcty are nelastc both to ts own prce changes and changes n the prces of other fuels. Coal showed hgh own prce elastctes. However, changes n coal prces have no sgnfcant nfluence on the demand for other fuels. Coal and ol are substtutes, whle coal and electrcty tend to be complements. Demand for gas s relatvely elastc, and t appears that gas and ol are substtutes

14 Table: Cross prce elastctes of energy demand Subsector Food Textle Wood Paper Chemcal Non-metal Basc metal Fab. metal Total ISIC e OC e OG e OEL e CO e CG e CEL e GO e GC e GEL e ELO e ELC e ELG

15 The Assumptons The estmated mpact of a carbon tax s based on the (partal) prce elastctes for each type of fuel calculated usng the translog cost share functon. Estmaton assumes constant prce elastctes, and no sgnfcant changes related to energy effcency technologes durng the perod under estmaton. Prce changes resultng from a carbon tax wll not change the manufacturng structure sgnfcantly. Carbon tax s appled on 1997 fuel prces at varous rates rangng from $5 to $30 per ton of carbon A carbon tax of $30 s consdered a hgh tax scenaro. A hgher rate would not be prudent, snce the tax rate would then exceed the prce of the fuel tself.

16 The results: mpact of a carbon tax Wth a tax of $15 per ton of carbon, the percentage reducton n CO2 emssons was almost 20%. The mpact of a carbon tax was not found to be sgnfcant n the wood, basc metal and fabrcated metal sub-sectors

17 Table : The mpact of carbon taxes on CO2 emsson level CO2 emssons level by fuel (Mton CO2) Total Tax level Ol Coal Gas Electrcty Mton CO2 % change Base

18 Table: The mpact of carbon taxes on changes n fuel mx Tax rate ($ per ton carbon) Sub-sector ISIC Low ($5) Medum ($15) Hgh ($30) Food Textle Wood Paper Chemcal Non-metal Basc metal Fab. metal Total

19 CONCLUSION The mposton of a carbon tax produces a sgnfcant reducton n CO2 emsson levels. At $15 per ton of carbon, t reduced CO2 emssons by around 20% from ther 1997 level. The opportuntes for other mtgaton measures wll be explored n order to meet the desred CO2 emsson level. Further studes wll nvestgate energy effcency polces that can be mplemented to meet a mnmum specfed level of CO2 emssons, whlst havng mnmal mpact on future manufacturng actvty.

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