Syngas/Methanol to Olefins

Transcription

1 Petrochemical Technology Renaissance Syngas/Methanol to Olefins R. J. Chang, Global Managing Director IHS Chemical Process Economics Program March 27 & 28, 2014 Houston, TX USA

2 The Rise of Syngas - the divergence between crude oil vs. natural gas and coal prices has spurt global syngas production Price ($/MMBtu) Prices Capacity Crude Oil Syngas Capacity Coal Syngas Capacity (billion scfd) Natural Gas Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Syngas Capacity Source: DOE and IHS Chemical 2

3 Syngas is mainly produced by natural gas reforming and coal gasification Natural Gas Reforming Coal Gasification QUENCH GAS STEAM DRY COAL STEAM BFW GASIFIER BFW SYNGAS FLY ASH SLAG 3

4 Syngas is a versatile intermediate for many chemicals, synthetic fuels, and Power Clean Syngas H2, CO, CO2 IGCC Clean Electricity Hydrogen Max H2 Methanol (H2 - CO2) / (CO + CO2) =2.05 Fischer-Tropsch Liquid Fuels H2 / CO = 2.0 Substitute Natural Gas H2 / CO = 3 4

5 U.S. Shale vs. China Coal - competition in C2 & C3 Value Chains - the story of global chemical industry in the next 5-10 years US Shale CH 4 Reforming Syngas Gasification China Coal NGL Ethane Ethylene / PE CTO CTP Naphtha MTO Methanol Propane PDH FCC Propylene / PP MTP MEG 5

6 Ethylene Capacity Build-up China s rapidly growing coal based capacity vs. US expanding shale based projects KTA China Ethylene and PEs 2013 Demand 2013 Capacity CTO MTO Others 2023 Capacity 2023 Demand KTA 50 NA Ethylene and PEs Demand 2013 Capacity 2023 Capacity 2023 Demand 6

7 Propylene Capacity Build-up - China s rapidly growing coal based capacity vs. US expanding shale based projects KTA China Propylene and PP KTA NA Propylene and PP 2013 Demand 2013 Capacity PDH Others 2023 Capacity 2023 Demand 7

8 Major Technology Advances Enabling CTO/CTP Processes High capacity 3th generation entrained flow gasifiers Mega methanol technologies MTO Technologies (producing about ½ C2 and ½ C3) UOP MTO /Total OCP (Olefin Cracking Process) DICP (Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics) DMTO, DMTO-II Sinopec SMTO MTP Technologies (producing mostly C3) Lurgi MTP Tsinghua FMTP Sinopec S-MTP 8

9 Leading Gasifiers used in China s CTO and CTP projects Shell GE-Texaco Siemens 9

10 Leading Chinese Operating Plants and their Technology Selections Project Coal Gasifier MTO/MTP Shenhua Baotou Bituminous GE (Texaco) 5 x (2,000TPD) Shenhua Ningxia Bituminous Siemens GSP 5 x (2,000TPD) Datang Duolun Lignite Shell 3 x (4,000TPD) DMTO Lurgi MTP Lurgi MTP Wison Bituminous GE or Shell UOP MTO Sinopec Zhongyuan Puyang SMTO Ningbo Heyuan DMTO 10

11 Critical Factors in China s Coal-Based Projects Driving forces Coal producers seeking higher return Strategic decision for petrochemical companies to divert chemical feedstock from petroleum Close supply gap by eliminating imports Deciding factors Government policy Product quality Environmental Impact CO 2 Emission Water demand Production economics Cash costs ROI 11

12 Questions to Answer In China Process economics of CTO/CTP vs. MTO/MTP: to integrate or not to integrate from coal? Are coal based processes competitive with naphtha and PDH processes? What are environmental impacts? In North America How does NA ethane based ethylene compete with CTO? How does NA PDH based propylene compete with CTP? Is MTO or MTP viable in the US? 12

13 Syngas production economics from coal vs. natural gas is the Key 13

14 Coal Gasification: selection of gasifiers / coal grades and petcoke Natural Gas: choice of reforming technologies / licensors 14

15 ipep Syngas Process Economics SYNTHESIS GAS FROM SUBBITUMINOUS COAL VIA SHELL(SCGP) GASIFIER (580 PSIA) UNIT COSTS CONSUMPTION PER MSCF /MSCF SUBBITUMINOUS COAL 0.7 /LB LB AGR SOLVENT 1,000 /LB LB 0.75 SHIFT CATALYST 1,800 /LB LB 1.80 OTHER CHEMICALS 3.78 GROSS RAW MATERIALS SLAG DISPOSAL -0.5 /LB LB 1.19 SULFUR 7.75 /LB LB TOTAL BY-PRODUCTS 0.33 COOLING WATER /MGAL 358 GAL 5.54 PROCESS WATER 132 /MGAL GAL 0.21 ELECTRICITY 5.93 /KWH KWH NATURAL GAS 412 /MMBTU 1,072 BTU 0.44 STEAM LP 570 /MLB LB 0.64 STEAM MP 760 /MLB LB 3.89 STEAM HP 810 /MLB -- LB 0.00 STEAM LP 570 /MLB LB STEAM MP 760 /MLB LB STEAM HP 810 /MLB LB TOTAL UTILITIES

16 ipep Syngas Process Economics SYNTHESIS GAS FROM SUBBITUMINOUS COAL VIA SHELL(SCGP) GASIFIER (580 PSIA) CAPACITY(MILLION MSCF/YR)* INVESTMENT($ MILLIONS) BATTERY LIMITS (BLI) ,449 2,305 OFFSITES TOTAL FIXED CAPITAL (TFC) 1,074 1,769 2,914 PRODUCTION COSTS( /MSCF) RAW MATERIALS BY-PRODUCTS UTILITIES VARIABLE COSTS OPERATING LABOR, $46.23/HR MAINTENANCE LABOR, 1.6%/YR OF BLI CONTROL LAB LABOR, 20% of OPER LABOR LABOR COSTS MAINTENANCE MATERIALS, 2.4%/YR OF BLI OPERATING SUPPLIES, 10% of OPER LABOR TOTAL DIRECT COSTS PLANT OVERHEAD, 80% TOTAL LABOR TAXES AND INSURANCE, 2%/YR OF TFC PLANT CASH COSTS DEPRECIATION, 10%/YR OF TFC PLANT GATE COST G&A, SALES, RESEARCH NET PRODUCTION COST ROI BEFORE TAXES, 15%/YR OF TFC PRODUCT VALUE

17 Comparison of Capex and Opex of Syngas Production in USGC and China US $ Million 1,500 1,250 1, USGC Combined Reforming USGC BATTERY LIMITS (BLI) China SCGP Subbituminous Coal OFFSITES /MSCF USGC Combined Reforming USGC PRETAX 15% ROI DEPRECIATION OPER & MAINT. China SCGP Subbituminous Coal G&A, SALES, RES. OVERHEAD, TAXES VARIABLE COST 17

18 Comparison of Environmental Impacts GE quench Shell E-Gas Siemens Toyo Lurgi HT JM/Davy GE quench Shell E-Gas Siemens Toyo Lurgi HT JM/Davy CO 2 /Syngas for MeOH (t/t) H 2 O/Syngas for MeOH (t/t) 18

19 Capex Structure of CTO/CTP and MTO /MTP US$ MM 2,000 PEPCOST INDEX=1164 CHINA LOCATION FACTOR=0.75 MID ,500 1, CTO CTP Gasification Methanol Plant Olefins Plant 19

20 CTO/ MTO Opex Comparison in China Production Costs ($/t) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500 ETHYLENE PRICE $/t 1,280 PEPCOST INDEX=1164 CHINA LOCATION FACTOR=0.75 MID 2013 CTO MTO Naphtha VARIABLE COST OPER & MAINT. OVERHEAD, TAXES DEPRECIATION G&A, SALES, RES. PRETAX 15% ROI ETHYLENE PRICE $/t 20

21 Olefins Production Costs in North America Production Costs ($/t) 2,000 1,500 1,000 PROPYLENE PRICE $/t 1,473 ETHYLENE PRICE $/t 1,221 PEPCOST INDEX=1164 USGC MID Ethane MTO Naphtha PDH MTP VARIABLE COST OPER & MAINT. OVERHEAD, TAXES DEPRECIATION G&A, SALES, RES. PRETAX 15% ROI ETHYLENE PRICE $/t PROPYLENE PRICE $/t 21

22 Summary Syngas production is a high growth industry, sustained by the divergence of oil vs. coal and natural gas prices Rapid growth of CTO/CTP capacities in China will compete with US shale based projects in next 5-10 years Syngas production economics (opex and capex) and environmental considerations will be the deciding factors An ipep interactive data module allows a quick comparison syngas production economics and the environmental impacts from coal gasification and natural gas reforming on the same basis Applying the ipep module to analyze CTO/CTP processes leads to the following conclusions: 22

23 Conclusions Coal based projects are very capital intensive and has high carbon and water footprint Compared with naphtha cracking in China, MTO is very competitive in full production costs and has highest ROI. CTO has the lowest cash costs, but will take a long period to recover high capex MTO/MTP it s a viable option with higher ROI in China In North America, MTO and MTP are not competitive NA ethane cracking has lower cash and full production costs than CTO and MTO processes in China 23

24 Syngas/Methanol to Olefins THANK YOU!