GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016

Transcription

1 THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Prof. Len Grigoriev and Dr. Tatiana Mitrova 15 February, 217

2 Three scenarios cover wide range of uncertainties 2 Favorable(high economy, low risks, technology and capital transfer) Probable (BAU) Critical (economic slowdown, many local conflicts, increasing economic and technological gap between the countries) Favorable Probable Critical Global population 9, 2 bln. by 24 Global GDP AAGR 3,4% 2,8% 2,1% Geopolitical risks No conflicts Few local conflicts Many local conflicts State energy policies New plans and methods. Partial implementation of the existing plans. Global CO2 quotas Global trade is emerging No global market, but regional trade trade is developing New technologies Scenario Matrix Current plans are not implemented. No development successfully. No technological revolutions. Several technological breakthroughs, but only for the technologies that are being tested currently. Technological transfer Unlimited Limited No transfer, new technologies develop only in OECD and in China

3 Fossil fuels are still dominating the fuel mix, though it is becoming more diversified: gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth 3 Primary energy demand by fuel (in 215 and increase by 24), Probable Scenario Structure of primary energy demand by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario mtoe 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other RES 3% 6% 25% 11% 2% 1% 1% 5% 28% 24 4% 27% 31% 22% 24% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

4 ERIRAS-AC Outlook is among the lowest demand projections 4 Primary energy demand scenarios comparison mtoe 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, RES Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 6, 4, 2, ERIRAS-AC (Probable) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Critical) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Favorable) 216 OPEC 216 BP 217 IEA 216 NP IEA 216 CP EIA DOE 216 Reference case ERIRAS-AC (Probable) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Critical) 216 ERIRAS-AC (Favorable) 216 OPEC 216 IEA 216 NP IEA 216 CP EIA DOE 216 Reference case ExxonMobil Sources: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC, WEO-216, IEO-216, BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC

5 Increasing electrification and electricity demand in all regions and in all scenarios 5 Electricity demand outlook for three scenarios TW h 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Africa Middle East Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS Europe South and Central America North America 5, Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

6 Huge regional differences in the electricity generation fuel mix will increase 6 Electricity generation by region and by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario TW h Non-OECD Asia North America Europe OECD Asia South and Central America Middle East CIS Africa Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro RES Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

7 In all scenarios global demand for liquids is increasing, driven by non- OECD countries, but the growth is very slow 7 Liquid fuel demand by region for three scenarios m toe CIS Africa OECD Asia Middle East South and Central America Europe North America Non-OECD Asia Probable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario

8 Main liquids demand growth in non-oecd will be located not in China, but in India and in the other non-oecd Asia 8 Peak Chinese liquids demand Liquids demand growth in non-oecd Asia m toe 85 6 % 8 5 % 75 4 % 7 3 % % 55 1 % 5 % Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario China Other non-oecd Asia India Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

9 International fossil fuel trade is expanding mainly in Asia 9 International fossil fuel trade North America Europe CIS South and Central America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Oil Gas Coal Netto-exporting region Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Netto-importing region

10 The new conjuncture of the external energy markets does not allow Russia to increase energy exports by more than 1% 1 Total Russian energy export in m toe Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scebario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

11 Russian oil output will decline in all scenarios post mln tonnes Russian oil output outlook 6 Reserves growth Greenfields Brownfields 2 Condensate 1 Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

12 Russian oil exports are driven by the Asian expansion 12 mln tonnes Russian oil exports by destination Russian petroleum product exports by destination mln tonnes Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc. Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc. East West CIS CIS West East Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

13 13 Global and Russian Energy Outlook 216