An investment model for large-scale green

Transcription

1 Fargo, ND May An investment model for large-scale green infrastructure: re-mosaicking the prairies 3rd International Sustainable Wetland Plant Management Conference Henry David (Hank) Venema, PhD, PEng

2 Acknowledgements

3 Outline What we ve lost What we ve gained What we ve learned The Future recovering what we ve lost, sustaining what we ve gained ecological design, climate finance

4 Hardware vs Software AT&T (c. 2007) had exclusive iphone contract and committed to unlimited data supply Experienced % increase in bandwidth demand in 3 years Expanding conventional infrastructure was not an option Revolutionary software innovation allowed AT&T to meet demand with conventional infrastructure network

5 NATURAL CAPITAL RESTORATION RNC = Restored Natural Capital EGS = Ecological Goods and Services Source: Aronson, J., Clewell, A. F., Blignault, J. N., & Milton, S. J. (2006). Ecological restoration: A new frontier for nature conservation and economics. Journal for Nature Conservation, 14,

6 The Palliser Expedition and the Palliser Triangle

7 The Modern Prairies

8 Manitoba 1867

9 Natural landscape dominated by prairies with large tracks of forests and significant wetland and marsh areas. Source: Hanuta, 2006

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11 Past Experience with Extreme Events 1906; (quarter million people displaced); 1961; ; 1980; ; 1988; ( the worst ever? $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ jobs lost

12 Landscapes Simplified Ecosystem Services Eliminated Reliance on Hardware Source: pdf/ncapital.pdf

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14 Climate Change Motivates a Reliance on Software figuratively and literally. International Capital is an ally but we have to do the design work

15 Global Motivation

16 Regional Context: Highlights from

17 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days High Carbon Low Carbon Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

18 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days High Carbon Low Carbon Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

19 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days High Carbon Low Carbon Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

20 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days High Carbon Low Carbon Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

21 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days High Carbon Low Carbon Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

22 Temperature Change ( o C) from ΔT: RCP Edmonton Regina Winnipeg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

23 Summer Precipitation

24 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation High Carbon Low Carbon Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

25 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation High Carbon Low Carbon Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

26 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation High Carbon Low Carbon Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

27 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation High Carbon Low Carbon Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

28 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation High Carbon Low Carbon Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.

29 % Change from ΔPPT: RCP Edmonton Regina Winnipeg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

30 Agricultural Water Management: Lessons from 2011

31 Hypothesis: Agriculture is not at the table on Green Infrastructure dangerous omission as agriculture lies at the heart of a large class of climate solutions

32 The solution: US example North Ottawa project Project Benefits: Flood Damage Reduction (Primary objective): Provides 16,000 acre feet of gatecontrolled storage which is equivalent to 75% of the estimated 100 year spring runoff. This is expected to reduce peak flows on the Bois de Sioux River at Wahpeton/Breckenridge by about 5%. Downstream Flow Augmentation: Release of about 5 cfs flow during the ice free season in most years. Water Quality: Improvement via sedimentation and nutrient uptake by wetland plants Habitat Enhancement: Feeding and resting areas for migrating waterfowl and shorebirds and stream flow maintenance for downstream fish habitat.

33 The solution: MB example

34 Stacked Benefits of Surface Water Retention: Not just for flood management GHG emissions reduction Biomass harvest Habitat/Biodiversity Phosphorus capture Flood control Water Recharge Pelly s Lake water retention site - near Holland, Manitoba

35 Pelly s Lake Fall 2015 Cattail Harvesting Dries up in the fall (September) - suitable conditions for harvesting with conventional agricultural equipment

36 Reduction in GHG emissions Cumulative greenhouse gas flux (CO2 + CH4 + N20, expressed as CO2 equivalents; mean +/- SE) for harvested and non-harvested cattail plots in the Pelly s Lake retention area

37 The big picture Boutique projects are necessary but insufficient Finance, Treasury, Feds can not deal with the granularity of high-performance adaptation projects Structural adaptation means aggregation and bundling for green bond issues. High performance computational platform for benefit aggregation, economic performance, visualization (and institutional gap analysis)

38 Precision Infrastructure Designing Advanced and Resilient Infrastructure: Big Spatial Data CyberGIS

39 Global Motivation: Agriculture as crucial climate solution space

40 Global Motivation need to invest heavily in resilient infrastructure

41 Aggregation and Systems Design: Re-mosaicking the landscape Key parameters: Retention area = 4750 km2 = 1840 sections = 3.4% of ag land base Storage 1m depth = 4.75 Gm3 = 3.85 M ac-ft = 80.6% of 2011 flood Biomass / 8t/ha = 3.8 Mt biomass = 3.8 kt phosphorus (100% of Lk Winnipeg policy target)

42 Aggregating Costs and Benefits (direct monetization and engineering substitution costs) $1000/acre-foot + $400/acre + 50% contingency = $6.3 Billion Co-Benefit Stack 10% of $500 acre-ft = $192 Million/year Biomass $30/t = $114 M/year GHG emissions reduction Fuel $30/t CO2e = $114 M/year $30/t 10t/ha = $142 M/year Water $50/kg P = $190 Million/year Flood Risk Reduction [omitted] Drought Resiliency [omitted] Habitat [omitted] Co-Benefit Stack Total = $753 M/year

43 Blunt Force Investment Analysis 50 years Cash Flow $2,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $0 -$1,000,000, $2,000,000,000 -$3,000,000,000 -$4,000,000,000 -$5,000,000,000 -$6,000,000,000 -$7,000,000,000 IRR = 12.2% 3% = $12.75B net Benefit-Cost Ratio = 2.04

44 Motivation the $64 trillion dollar question (actually $90T) Recent climate-aligned bonds in Canada:

45 The enablers (technical) LiDAR for proper geospatial and hydrodynamic modelling (technical) Hydro-climatic modelling (ECCC-MESH model) (technical) High performance computational platform for benefit aggregation, economic performance, watershed visualization (policy) hard commitment to climate leadership/green economy/cleantech and green value chain development (policy) institutional flexibility on carbon/water quality/biodiversity offsetting (policy) investment aggregation/leveraging: green infrastructure/p3 (policy) institutional and governance innovation

46 Case Study: Virden, MB Harvesting Technology Equipment R&D and Enterprise Logistics Landscape/ Watershed Design Downstream Processing Green Infrastructure design/bond primarily resilience benefits Biorefinery systems design Green Infrastructure design/bond resilience + GHG mitigation benefits

47 The Prize: Deep Innovation Deep Driver for Economic Development and Growth Climate Resilience International Leadership in Precision Infrastructure design, implementation and management A new class of cyberinfrastructure technology crucial to climate resilience, water and food security: Biorefining Biomaterials Systems Design and Logistics Geospatial Analytics Smart Hydrology and Hydraulics Ecosystem Modeling and Visualization Low-impact Agricultural Harvesting

48 Next Steps

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