Modeling Chester River Water Quality...

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1 Modeling Chester River Water Quality... Jeremy Testa Damian Brady Kelly Cole Ming Li University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science University of Maine

2 Outline (1) Quick update on ROMS (2) Comparison of RCA and ICM (3) Some Chester water quality trends (4) Modeling benthic algae/mpb (5) Metabolism, ph, and sediment P Flux

3 (1)Forcing Effects on ROMS Salinity

4

5

6 Animation of Chester Salt Fronts

7 (2) RCA versus ICM RCA Schematic ICM Modules

8 RCA ICM (1) Organic and inorganic N, P + Si, Org C, O 2 Same (2) Di Toro Sediment Flux Model Same (3) Refractory and labile OM pools in WC, sed Same (4) No dynamic sediment transport Sediment transport (bankloads, resuspension) (5) Three phytoplankton groups Same (6) No explicit zooplankton Two zooplankton groups (7) No explicit benthos Benthic invertebrate model (8) Carbon:Chl-a Ratio Fixed or dynamic Same (9) Simple, empirical regression for kd Optical model (scattering, absorption, etc) Light, temperature, and nutrient constraints on phytoplankton growth similar Some processes slightly different (P sorption to solids, nitrification) These models share a lot of parameters, some of which the models are highly sensitive to (algal settling rate, phyto growth model, sediment model)

9 (3) Water Quality Trends, Potential Drivers ET4.1 ET4.2

10 Chlorophyll-a Red = bottom Blue = surface Particulate Organic Carbon 30 µg/l Chl-a decline ~1.8 mg/l C decline (assume C:CHL = 60) Particulate Phosphorus TSS Secchi z Pre m Post m

11 Chlorophyll-a, Nutrient Load, and Flushing

12

13 A Field Trip ET4.1

14

15

16

17

18

19 Rangia cuneata Corbicula fluminea

20 August 2015 Chester River Data y = x x R² = Wet Weight (g) Width (mm) y = x R² = Cohen et al Length (mm) Width (mm)

21 August 2015 Chester River Data # Samples Location # Corbicula # Corbicula/m2 Days to Filter Water Column 2 South of ET ± 16 5 ET ± 68 3 North of Bridge ± 4 *Filtration Rates from (Cohen et al. 1984) in ml/h-g wet weight Estimated 30% of Chl-a in 2 hours Cohen et al. 1984

22 ROMS-RCA Simulated Chlorophyll-a is Sensitive to Grazing

23 (4) Modeling Benthic Algae in ROMS-RCA

24 Benthic Algae and O 2 /Nutrient Fluxes in Chester/Corsica Rivers

25 Water column Sediment PON NH 4 + NO 3 -

26 Deposition Denitrification Diagenesis Nitrification PON NH + 4 NO - 3

27 Deposition Denitrification Diagenesis Nitrification PON NH + 4 NO - 3 Aerobic layer Anaerobic layer Diffusion/Mixing Denitrification PON NH 4 + NO 3 -

28 Deposition Microphytobenthos O 2 Uptake Denitrification Diagenesis Nitrification PON NH + 4 NO - 3 Aerobic layer Anaerobic layer Diffusion/Mixing Denitrification PON NH 4 + NO 3 -

29

30 Microphytobenthos produce O 2 and counteract hypoxia Sediment O 2 flux (mmol O 2 m -2 d -1 ) Dark Cores Light Cores Day Field data from Choptank River, courtesy of Cornwell and Owens

31 Microphytobenthos produce O 2 and counteract hypoxia Sediment O 2 flux (mmol O 2 m -2 d -1 ) Day Dark Cores Light Cores Dark Model Light Model Field data from Choptank River, courtesy of Cornwell and Owens

32 Sediment O 2 and NH 4 Flux in Corsica River Sediment O 2 flux (mmol m -2 d -1 ) Dark Cores Light cores Dark model Light model Sediment NH 4 flux (mmol m -2 d -1 ) Dark Cores Light Cores Dark Model Light Model Day Day

33 Illumination Alters O 2 and NH 4 Flux in Spring/Fall Sediment O 2 flux (mmol m -2 d -1 ) % Light 50% Light 100% Light 200% Light O 2 NH Day Sediment NH 4 flux (mmol m -2 d -1 ) % Light 50% Light 100% Light 200% Light Day

34 Potential Light Effects on System Scale N Budget Small increase in Secchi (0.5 m 1.0 m) yields large increase in photic bottom (1% surface light) from 28 85%

35 (5) Ecosystem Metabolism, ph, and Phosphorus Fluxes in the Chester River

36 Large DO and ph Swings at Some Stations

37 ph and DIP Fluxes in the Chester/Corsica Potomac Sediment PO 4 Flux PO 4 Flux (µmoles-p m -2 h -1 ) From Bailey et al Effects of ph on Flux Large Fluxes ph Huge Fluxes So, how much algal production could a P-flux of 50 umol/m2/hr support? 50 x 24 = 1200 C:N:P = 100:16: x 100 x 12 = 1.4 g C/m2/day A substantial rate and a simple rule of thumb conversion

38

39 Corsica River ph Sycamore Point 82% of ph>9.5 occurs between Nov and March The Sill

40 High DIP Fluxes Occur in Summer, High ph in Winter Sycamore Point CRa (UppeR) CRb (Mid) CR12 (Lower) Syc. Pt May June July Aug Sept Oct

41

42 In conclusion. How does your WQ model differ from the other teams models? (1) As Above What does your WQ model do well, and why? (1) We should have RCA simulations in the next month, where we will know this (2) Past work has reproduced diel cycling hypoxia, captured spatial variations in sediment-water fluxes What needs more work, and why? (1) Benthic grazing may be important in some regions, but more work needed (2) Understanding model sensitivity to freshwater inputs, key parameters What will be you be focusing on improving in the future? (1) Fully Implementing benthic algal model (2) Improving the formulation for kd (3) Potentially considering ph effects on P sorption (4) Making sure we capture storm-induced P loads

43 Thank You

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