2.1 Summary of Existing and Future Population Estimates

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1 SECTION 2 Demographics This technical memorandum identifies the uncertainties and describes potential future demographics that might affect wastewater facilities in the City of McCall, Idaho (the City). It partially fulfills Task Order 20, Subtask 2.0, as part of the Master Agreement dated June 2005 for Professional Services between CH2M HILL, Inc. (the Engineer) and the City in support of the City s Wastewater Management System. This background documentation will be used to develop a wastewater facilities plan for the City. This technical memorandum consists of the following sections: 1. Summary of Existing and Future Population Estimates 2. Existing Dwelling Units and Population 3. Land Use and Zoning 4. Growth Trends 2.1 Summary of Existing and Future Population Estimates The number of existing permanent residents, second-home residents, and tourist equivalents in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area has been estimated. The Wastewater Facilities Planning Area includes the City of McCall and the unincorporated area surrounding the City and Payette Lake as delineated on Figure Existing Population Estimates Existing Permanent and Second-Home Residents The estimates of permanent and second-home residents are based on the following assumptions: The population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area can be estimated using the number of dwelling units served by the City s wastewater collection system and by the Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District wastewater collection system plus an estimate of the number of dwelling units they do not serve. Of the dwelling units, 40 percent are permanent residences and 60 percent are second homes (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). There are 2.2 people per dwelling unit (Rees Consulting, 2005). Second homes are occupied 30 percent of the year on average. Second homes are occupied 100 percent during peak seasons. BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-1

2 Existing Tourist Population Estimates of the tourist population are based on the following assumptions: The tourist population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area can be estimated using the number of existing lodging rooms and estimated occupancy rates (CH2M HILL, 2005e). On average, there are three pillows occupied per lodging room. Tourist pillows are occupied 50 percent of the year on average. Tourist pillows are occupied 90 percent of the time during peak seasons. Tourist equivalent populations reduce the tourist population estimate by a factor of 0.8. This means that a tourist would contribute about 80 percent of the wastewater flow and load that a permanent or second-home resident would contribute Total Population Estimates Table provides estimates of the number of existing permanent residents, second-home residents, and tourist equivalents in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area on an average annual basis and during peak seasons. These numbers are used as the base for projecting the 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2033 population estimates. TABLE Population Equivalent Estimates for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (2005) Population Category Population Base Average Annual Population Peak Population Permanent Residents 3,570 a 3,570 3,570 Second-Home Residents 5,350 a 1,600 b 5,350 c Tourist Equivalents 830 d 460 e 830 f Total Population Equivalents 9,750 5,630 9,750 a Derived from the number of dwelling units served by the City s wastewater collection system and by the Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District wastewater collection system plus an estimate of the number of dwelling units they do not serve. It has been assumed that 40 percent of the dwelling units are permanent residences and 60 percent of them are second homes (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). In addition, it has been assumed that there are 2.2 people per dwelling unit (Rees Consulting, 2005). b Assumes second homes are occupied 30 percent of the year on average. c Assumes second homes are occupied 100 percent during peak seasons. d The tourist population has been estimated using information on the number of lodging rooms and estimated occupancy rates (CH2M HILL, 2005e). It has been assumed that, on average, there are three pillows occupied per lodging room. It is an equivalent population because the estimates have been reduced by a factor of 0.8. This means that a tourist would contribute about 80 percent of the wastewater flow and load that a permanent or second-home resident would contribute. e Assumes tourist pillows are occupied 50 percent of the year on average. f Assumes tourist pillows are occupied 90 percent of the time during peak seasons Future Population Estimates The City s Wastewater Policy (Resolution 06-08) (City of McCall, 2006d), restricts connections to the wastewater collection system to a total of 254 until additional land for land application can be secured. Once additional land for land application is secured, the 2-2 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

3 McCall City Council limits additional sewer hook ups to a total of up to 1,919 equivalent dwelling units. (See Appendix A, City s Wastewater Policy [Resolution 06-08].) Currently, the distribution of equivalent dwelling units in this policy is considered to be 156 equivalent dwelling units per year for housing construction plus an average of 100 equivalent dwelling units per year for commercial, industrial, mixed use, and public unit construction. Over a 7.5 year period, this would be 1,920 equivalent dwelling units Population Growth Scenarios The population growth scenarios provide estimates for years 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and Growth until a new wastewater treatment facility is constructed (estimated as 2013) will be limited to the available capacity of the wastewater treatment plant. For the calculations through 2012, it has been assumed that 156 single-family homes will be constructed each year. It has been assumed that there will be an average of 2.2 people per single-family housing unit. Some of the 100 other sewer hookups will be used for hotel/motel construction. It has been assumed that the number of lodging rooms will increase at a rate of 6.5 percent per year from 2006 through Three scenarios of population growth (and consequent wastewater flow) have been developed low, medium, and high. Beginning in 2013, the growth scenarios annually increase the base estimated average annual permanent resident, second-home resident, and tourist equivalent populations by 1.5 percent (low), 3.5 percent (medium), and 6.5 percent (high). To summarize the assumptions related to the population growth scenarios: From 2006 through 2012, 156 single-family housing units per year will be added to the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area From 2006 through 2012, the number of lodging rooms will increase at a rate of 6.5 percent per year On average, 2.2 people will inhabit each single-family housing unit Beginning in 2013, the annual average percentage population growth rates will be: 1.5 percent (low population growth scenario) 3.5 percent (medium population growth scenario) 6.5 percent (high population growth scenario) The permanent resident population will be 40 percent and the second-home population will be 60 percent of the total population On average, there will be three pillows occupied per lodging room. Tourist pillows will be occupied 90 percent of the time during peak seasons. The estimated tourist population will generate wastewater flow and load equivalent to 80 percent of the that generated by the permanent and second-home residents BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-3

4 Projected Dwelling-Unit Build Out of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Each of the permanent-resident and second-home population growth scenarios (low, medium, and high) are compared to a projected build out of dwelling units. Under the following assumptions, there might be the equivalent of approximately 16,713 single-family dwelling units with 36,770 people at build out of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (see Table 2.4-9): The acreages in the current zoning districts will not change All acreage in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area except that owned by the City or within the Dr. Nokes/University of Idaho Conservation Area is potentially available for dwelling-unit build out The existing Wastewater Facilities Planning Area boundary will not change The developable acreage is net of rights-of-way, open space, undevelopable land, inefficient development, and so forth. For zoning districts RR, RE, R1, R4, and R8, the net developable land is 50 percent of the land available For zoning districts CBD, CC, and I, the net developable land is 40 percent of the land available There would be 2.2 people per connection Total Population Estimates and Build Out of Dwelling Units Table summarizes the projected peak populations for the growth scenarios and compares the permanent-resident and second-home populations to the projected build-out population of dwelling units. Figure plots various permanent-resident and secondhome population estimates and indicates the dwelling-unit build-out population. Note that the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area will never be completely built out because the dwelling-unit build-out assumptions will change. For example: The number of residential units allowed in various zoning categories (density) may be modified Acreage designated as a low density residential development zoning district may be changed to a higher density zoning district designation The boundaries of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area may be expanded Variances may be granted to allow higher density residential unit construction in existing zoning districts PUD applications may specify such things as the construction of multi-family housing units 2-4 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

5 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Population 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 3.50% 6.50% Buildout Year FIGURE VARIOUS PERMANENT-RESIDENT AND SECOND-HOME POPULATION GROWTH SCENARIOS COMPARED TO DWELLING-UNIT BUILD-OUT POPULATION City of McCall, Idaho WB BOI

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7 TABLE Estimates of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Peak Populations for 2012, 2018, 2023, and 2033 Compared to Dwelling-Unit Build-Out Population (36,770 people) a Using Low, Medium, and High Population Growth Scenarios Scenario % Growth/ Year 2012 b Low Population Growth Scenario 1.5% 12,610 13,780 14,860 17,240 Year of Build Out Permanent-resident and second-home population 1.5% 11,322 12,370 13,330 15, Tourist-equivalent population 1.5% 1,285 1,410 1,530 1,770 Medium Population Growth Scenario 3.5% 12,610 15,490 18,370 25,920 Permanent-resident and second-home population 3.5% 11,322 13,910 16,500 23, Tourist-equivalent population 3.5% 1,285 1,580 1,870 2,630 High Population Growth Scenario 6.5% 12,610 18,380 25,190 47,310 Permanent-resident and second-home population 6.5% 11,322 16,510 22,630 42, Tourist-equivalent population 6.5% 1,285 1,870 2,560 4,810 a The dwelling-unit build-out estimate uses the current zoning districts and existing Wastewater Facilities Planning Area boundary and assumes that dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area will be built at 100 percent of allowable density on the potential net developable acreage (that is acreage not owned by the City or within the Dr. Nokes/University of Idaho Conservation Area). b From 2006 through 2012, the scenarios assume that there will be no more than 156 dwelling units built each year and the number of lodging rooms will increase by 6.5 percent per year. 2.2 Existing Dwelling Units and Population Population trends and projections, and the wastewater that is generated, are key issues in the evaluation of capital needs and operations for a wastewater utility. Growth related issues will have an impact on the long-term decisions of the City. The following topics are discussed in this section: 2.1 Dwelling Units 2.2 Population Dwelling Units Table shows the City of McCall s housing stock in 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000) and single-family and multi-family developments in the years 2001 through May 2005 (ICF Consulting, 2005). Assuming that there are an average of nine dwelling units per multifamily housing unit, as of May 2005 there were 2,780 dwelling units in the City. In its Staff Report Housing Ordinances, City of McCall and McCall Impact Area (City of McCall, 2006a), the City estimated that there were 3,056 housing units in the City, which would be an increase of 372 housing units over the 2004 estimate (Table 2.2-1). BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-7

8 TABLE City of McCall 2000 Dwelling Unit Stock and Development Activity through 2005 Year Housing Stock Permitted Single- Family Units Permitted Multi- Family Units Total Existing and Permitted Residential Dwelling Units ,247 a 2, b 4 c 2, b 14 c 2, b 15 c 2, d 77 e 2, d 132 e 3, (Alternate) 3,056 f 3,056 a U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population, b City of McCall houses in Report of Building Permits for Valley County (Millar, Pers. Comm., 2006). c City of McCall condominiums in Report of Building Permits for Valley County (Millar, Pers. Comm., 2006). d Permitted single-family units (stick or log construction and manufactured or modular homes), City of McCall (Millar Pers. Comm., 2006) e Permitted multi-family units (multi-family units, condominium units, and duplexes), City of McCall (Millar Pers. Comm., 2006) f City of McCall, Staff Report Housing Ordinances, City of McCall and McCall Impact Area, 2006a. This estimate of housing units in 2005 is 44 housing units greater than the 2005 estimate using the 2000 housing stock as a base and assuming construction of all the residential dwelling units permitted in each year. Table provides information about the dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area as of January The estimates in this table are used to determine the number of dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area for The City s wastewater collection system served 2,255 connections in January Of these, 1,978 were residential connections and 277 were commercial connections. Of the residential connections, 1,907 were for single-family dwelling units. The 71 multi-family residential connections served 644 dwelling units (that is 9.1 dwelling units per multi-family connection). TABLE Existing Dwelling Units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (2005) Parameter Dwelling Units City of McCall Sewer Residential Customers 2,563 Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District Customers a 1,191 Total Sewer Residential Customers in Wastewater Facilities Planning Area 3,754 Estimated Number of Dwelling Units without Wastewater Connections to City of McCall or Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer Districts b 300 Estimated Total Dwelling Units in Wastewater Facilities Planning Area 4,054 Permanent Homes (40% of Total Dwelling Units) 1,622 Second Homes (60% of Total Dwelling Units) 2,432 a It is assumed that the Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District has no commercial or industrial customers (that is, all their customers are residences). b Dwelling units not connected to the wastewater collection system include 47 single-family lots in the Rio Vista subdivision and about 250 units outside the sewer district boundaries, which has been rounded up to 300 units. Sources: City of McCall, 2006b, City of McCall Table Lists - Customer Type Billing. Service No = 3. January 19. Bill Burke/Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District, personal communication with Dominic Brown/CH2M HILL. January 19, REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

9 The Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District wastewater collection system served 1,191 customers in January 2006 (Burke Pers. Comm., 2006). It has been assumed that all of the Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District wastewater collection system customers are dwelling units. Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District serves some but not all the dwelling units in the Impact Area outside the City s service area. There are 47 single-family lots in the Rio Vista subdivision that are not connected to the wastewater collection system. In addition, it is estimated that there are about 250 dwelling units outside the boundaries of both the City s wastewater collection system and the Payette Lakes Recreational Water and Sewer District wastewater collection system. Therefore, it has been assumed that about 300 dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area are not connected. Given the information described above, it has been assumed that there were at least 4,054 dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. This estimate is used for determining the total dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area at the end of Of these, it is assumed that 93 percent were connected to the wastewater collection system. According to the 2000 Census of Population, 40.1 percent of the housing units in the City of McCall were occupied by permanent residents; 48 percent were occupied for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use; and 11.9 percent were vacant (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). For this Technical Memorandum, it has been assumed that 40 percent of the dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area are permanent residences and 60 percent are second-home residences. Therefore, of the 4,054 dwelling units, an estimated 1,622 are permanent homes and 2,432 are second homes (Table 2.2-2) Population The population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area that affects wastewater collection and treatment consists of permanent residents, second-home residents, and tourists Permanent Resident Population It has been assumed that 40 percent of the estimated 4,054 dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area are permanent residences. In 2005, on average, there were 2.2 people per household (Rees Consulting, 2005). Therefore, it is estimated that the existing permanent resident population (2005) in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area is 3,570. Rees Consulting estimated that there were 2,524 permanent residents living in the City in 2005 (Rees Consulting, 2005). The Comprehensive Plan (City of McCall, 2000) indicated that the population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area was 150 percent of the population of the City in 1990 and estimated that it would be percent of the population of the City in 2000 and 137 percent of the population of the City in 2005 through Assuming that the population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area was 137 percent of the population of the City in 2005, the estimated population of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area was about 3,460. This is within about 3 percent of the existing permanent resident population (3,570 in 2005) estimated using the number of dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-9

10 Second-Home Resident Population The second-home resident population for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area was estimated by assuming that the number of second-home residents per dwelling unit is similar to the number of permanent residents per dwelling unit. It has been assumed that 60 percent of the estimated 4,054 dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area are second-home residences. Therefore, with 2.2 people per household (Rees Consulting, 2005), it is estimated that the existing second-home resident population in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area was 5,350 (in 2005). The peak seasons are in the winter and the summer. In the winter, skiing is available at the nearby Brundage Mountain and Tamarack ski resorts. In addition, there is a winter carnival each year. In the summer, there are numerous recreational opportunities related to such features as Payette Lake and various parks near the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. It is assumed that second homes are 100-percent occupied during the peak seasons. In an average year, the second homes are estimated to be about 30-percent occupied. Using this information, the peak season and average annual populations of second-home residents were estimated as 5,350 and 1,600, respectively Tourist Population The tourist population was estimated based on pillow counts derived from a Report Related to Evaluation and Facilitation, McCall Convention/ Conference Center (CH2M HILL, 2005e). It has been assumed that there were 384 lodging rooms available in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area in 2005 and that there are three pillows per room (that is, space for about 1,150 tourists). Table shows the pillow count for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. It was assumed that 90 percent of the pillows would be occupied by tourists during peak seasons. It has been assumed that, on average, about 50 percent of the pillows are occupied. In developing wastewater facilities plans of this type, the population equivalent of a tourist is typically calculated as 0.5 to 0.8 resident. This means that a tourist would contribute about 50 to 80 percent of the flow and load that a permanent or second-home resident would contribute. This Technical Memorandum assumes that the tourists have a population equivalent of 0.8 resident. Thus, in Table the equivalent population of tourists is equal to 0.8 times the actual tourist population. TABLE Estimates of Peak Season and Average Tourist Population in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Based on Pillow Counts (2005) Population Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Peak seasons tourist population a 1,040 Peak season equivalents b 830 Average annual tourist population c 580 Average annual equivalents b 460 a Assumes 90 percent of 1,152 pillows occupied during peak seasons. b Resident equivalents are estimated as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. c Assumes 50 percent of pillows occupied annually. Source: CH2M HILL, 2005e, Report Related to Evaluation and Facilitation, McCall Convention/ Conference Center 2-10 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

11 Total Peak Season and Average Annual Populations Table shows the estimated existing peak season and average annual population for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (2005). The actual population is listed, along with the equivalent population, which estimates resident equivalents as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. TABLE Estimates of Existing and Equivalent Peak Season and Average Annual Populations in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (2005) Population Category Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Peak Season Permanent residents 3,570 Second-home residents a 5,350 Tourists 1,040 Peak season totals 9,960 Peak season equivalent b 9,750 Average Annual Permanent residents 3,570 Second-home residents c 1,600 Tourists 580 Average annual totals 5,750 Average annual equivalents b 5,630 a Assumes second homes are occupied 100 percent during peak seasons. b Resident equivalents are estimated as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. c Assumes second homes are occupied 30 percent of the year on average Existing Population Summary Table summarizes the 2005 population equivalent estimates for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. 2.3 Land Use and Zoning Almost all of the goals identified in the Comprehensive Plan (City of McCall, 2000) relate to future land use and zoning. Those specifically identified as Land Use goals are: Ensure that proposed projects and developments increase or maintain the community s quality of life. Provide for a variety of housing types and lot sizes within city limits to serve all economic segments of the community. Establish open space areas. Expand the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area to encompass the existing and proposed approaches into the city and the area in which city services can reasonably be provided in the foreseeable future. BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-11

12 In the future, development patterns in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area are expected to change to some degree as infill reduces the land available for development and the City extends urban services to areas where they are currently lacking. This section looks at the general residential development pattern, based on: Current Land Use and Zoning Future Land Use and Zoning Restrictions on Zoning, Subdivision, Planned Unit Development, and Scenic Route Applications within the City Current Land Use and Zoning Table (in Section 1.2.2, Zoning) summarizes the acreage and allowable density for zoning categories within the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. Of the acreage in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area that is not owned by the City or within the Dr. Nokes/University of Idaho Conservation Area, 16,378 acres are zoned for residential use. This includes 15,940 acres zoned for low-density residential use (up to 4 units per acre, zoned R4, R1, RE, and RR) and 438 acres for medium-density residential use (up to 8 units per acre zoned R8). This comprises 94.4 percent of the total land within the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. There are 455 acres (2.6 percent) zoned for commercial use (up to 60 units per acre, zoned CC and CBD). There are 360 acres (2 percent) zoned for industrial use. Figure shows the boundaries of the planning jurisdiction and the zoning districts within the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. At the time of the 2000 census, the City of McCall contained approximately 2,250 homes. In 2001, the City processed one 65-lot subdivision and one planned unit development (PUD) for a 240-site RV park. Since January 2002, the City has approved 17 subdivisions, adding over 290 potential homes to the City. There are currently active applications for 22 subdivisions containing 956 proposed homes (Rees Consulting, 2005). Three annexations have been recently approved by the City including 600 to 700 acres for expansion of the Whitetail Resort on the southwest quadrant of Lardo. This is a gated golf course development. Plans are to build out a 57-acre parcel and another approximately 20 acres at four units per acre. None include parcels zoned appropriately for community housing other than plans for 13 employee housing dorm rooms and a couple of employee units at Whitetail (Rees Consulting, 2005). For the Whitetail Resort development, 101 singlefamily units are planned for Phase 1 and 130 single-family units are planned for Phase 2. There are 160 acres of open range land on the west side within the City limits. This land is considered an area of potential change because it lies adjacent to the newly opened connector road, it was recently purchased by development interests, and because it was recently annexed into the city with a zoning designation of 1 unit per 5 acres (ICF Consulting, 2005). There are another 540 acres of Bezatis land, most of which is within the Impact Area Future Land Use and Zoning The City of McCall City Council and the Valley County Board of Commissioners recently approved a comprehensive planning and zoning code update. The new Title 3, Zoning Ordinance and Title 9, Subdivision and Development Regulations became effective on March 16, 2-12 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

13 2006. Included in the new Title 3 and Title 9 are the following modifications that might affect the number of potential connections to the wastewater system: An R16 (Residential, sixteen dwelling units per acre) zone district has been adopted. This proposed zone district has not been mapped anywhere in the City or Impact Area, but could be proposed in future zoning map amendments. The Commercial (C) and General Commercial (GC) zone districts have been combined into a Community Commercial (CC) zone district. A Neighborhood Commercial (NC) zone district has been adopted. This zone district has not been mapped anywhere in the City or Impact Area, but could be proposed in future zoning map amendments. The NC land use designation is the least intense commercial designation in the City, and is intended to provide retail, service, and mixed use establishments that are within easy walking distance for area residents. As an incentive for community housing and to reduce sprawl, maximum residential densities in mixed use projects would be 60 dwelling units/acre in the CBD zone district and 40 dwelling units/acre in the CC zone district. An Agriculture and Forest (AF) Zone has been adopted. The AF land use designation is intended to provide a designation for agricultural areas, including forest lands, within the City. Some of these lands may be held in public ownership. A Civic Use (CV) Zone has been adopted. The CV land use designation is intended to provide for governmental offices and other civic facilities. This includes governmental, cultural, and recreational facilities. Mixed use is allowed in combination with public uses. An Airport (AP) Zone has been adopted. The AP land use designation is intended for use by the McCall Municipal Airport and the surrounding related facilities and properties. See the Airport Master Plan. To preserve and enhance the character of the City, a PUD would be required for projects over a certain size Restrictions on Zoning, Subdivision, Planned Unit Development, and Scenic Route Applications within the City On April 11, 2005, the City Council enacted a 182-day moratorium on all zoning, subdivision, PUD, and/or scenic route applications within the City because of problems with the disposal of effluent from the sewage treatment lagoons and land-use regulations that are inadequate given the growth faced by the community, the This moratorium was lifted on March 21, However, the City s Wastewater Policy (Resolution 06-08) restricts connections to the wastewater collection system to 256 equivalent dwelling units per year. (See Appendix A, City s Wastewater Policy [Resolution 06-08].) 2.4 Growth Trends This section provides information about the following topics: Planning Period Population Growth Scenarios Analysis of Population Growth Scenarios BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-13

14 2.4.1 Planning Period The objectives for the McCall wastewater facilities plan are to develop and implement a plan that will provide wastewater collection and treatment services for the McCall Wastewater Facilities Planning Area through the planning period. This planning period is described in Section 1.1.3, Wastewater Facilities Plan Goals. The 20-year planning period would begin in 2013, when the new wastewater facilities would be on-line. (Activities from 2006 to 2013 include planning, siting, permitting, financing, approvals, engineering design, bidding awarding, constructing, starting, and testing wastewater facilities.) Population Growth Scenarios For system planning, the wastewater facilities plan must factor in total and peak populations, including tourists. Wastewater collection and treatment system improvements must be sized to accommodate peak hour, peak month, and average annual flows and loads. Peak populations will control some of the planning decisions. However, a conservative approach should be used so that the City has the financial ability to implement the necessary improvements. Many variables and assumptions are involved in estimating and refining potential populations within the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. The Water Master Plan (HECO, 2001) used the cohort survival technique with a migration factor from the Comprehensive Plan (McCall, 2000). The City s resident population for year 2021 was projected as 5,570, extrapolated from a year 2000 base population of 3,261 (HECO, 2001). The Comprehensive Plan (McCall, 2000) forecasted the City s resident 2005 population as 3,760. That estimate is 49 percent greater than the more recent 2005 population estimate of 2,524 (Rees Consulting, 2005). That forecast used a declining annual percentage increase in population (Table 2.4-1). TABLE Population Forecasts from the Comprehensive Plan (City of McCall, 2000) McCall (Annual % Change) Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (Number) Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (Annual % Change) Wastewater Facilities Planning Area (% of McCall) McCall Year (Number) ,005 3, % , % 4, % 137.5% , % 5, % 137.0% , % 5, % 137.0% , % 6, % 137.0% , % 7, % 137.0% The census of population conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau each decade counts only those people who reside in a location on a full-time basis (permanent residents). Table arrays that information for the years 1970 through REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

15 TABLE Population in McCall and Valley County McCall Year (Number) Valley County (Number) ,758 3,600 McCall Average Annual % Increase Valley Average Annual % Increase ,188 5, % 5.6% ,005 6, % 0.9% ,084 7, % 2.5% ,129 7, % 0.6% ,133 7, % -1.1% ,207 7, % 1.7% ,304 7, % 2.9% 2005 a 2,524 8, % 7.8% Average Annual % Increases % 4.0% % 3.8% % 2.1% % 1.8% % 2.7% % 2.5% a Rees Consulting, [Idaho Power (2005 estimates for Valley County); 2005 estimates for City of McCall projected forward from 2003 Census estimates and correlated with 2005 Idaho Power county estimates.] Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, various dates. Idaho Commerce and Labor, 2006b Population Growth Estimates The population growth scenarios provide estimates for years 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and The medium and high population growth scenarios also provide estimates for the time when the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area is built out. Growth until a new wastewater treatment facility is constructed (estimated as 2013) will be limited to that available in the wastewater treatment plant capacity. (See discussion in Section 2.1, Summary of Existing and Future Population Estimates for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area.) For the calculations through 2012, it has been assumed that 156 sewer hookups will be used for constructing single-family housing and that there will be an average of 2.2 people per unit. Some of the 100 other sewer hookups will be used for hotel/motel construction. It has been assumed that the number of lodging rooms will increase at a rate of 6.5 percent per year. Three scenarios of population growth (and consequent wastewater flow) have been developed low, medium, and high. Each scenario assumes that the wastewater treatment facilities should have the capacity for serving the projected population of permanent residents, second-home residents, and tourist equivalents using the 2005 population estimates as a base for extrapolation. Beginning in 2013, the growth scenarios annually increase the base estimated average annual permanent resident, second-home resident, and tourist equivalent populations by 1.5 percent (low), 3.5 percent (medium), and 6.5 percent (high). Table summarizes the projected peak populations for the growth scenarios and compares them to the projected build-out population. BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-15

16 Low Population Growth Scenario (1.5 percent per year after 2012) For the low population growth scenario, permanent and second-home populations and dwelling units were projected using the 2005 estimates (Section ) increased by 1.5 percent per year beginning in (The calculations through 2012 assume that 156 single-family dwelling units per year will be built with 2.2 persons per dwelling unit and tourist accommodations will increase by 6.5 percent per year.) Projected numbers of additional tourists in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area were calculated assuming tourist accommodations would increase by 1.5 percent per year beginning in Table summarizes the projected low population growth peak season and average annual populations for the planning area in 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and It also shows the total equivalent population, which estimates resident equivalents as 80 percent of the estimated tourist population. TABLE Low Population Growth Scenario Estimate of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Populations for 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2033 with a 1.5 Percent Annual Growth Rate Beginning in 2013 Population Category Peak Season Permanent residents 3,707 4,600 4,950 5,340 6,190 Second-home residents 5,556 6,890 7,420 7,990 9,280 Tourists 1,102 1,630 1,760 1,910 2,210 Peak season totals 10,365 13,120 14,130 15,240 17,680 Peak season equivalents a 10,144 12,790 13,780 14,860 17,240 Average Annual Permanent residents 3,707 4,600 4,950 5,340 6,190 Second-home residents 1,662 2,060 2,210 2,360 2,760 Tourists ,020 1,220 Average annual totals 5,981 7,570 8,120 8,720 10,170 Average annual equivalents a 5,859 7,390 7,930 8,520 9,930 a Resident equivalents are estimated as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. NOTE: Assumes a 1.5 percent annual growth rate beginning in Medium Population Growth Scenario (3.5 percent per year after 2012) For the medium population growth scenario, permanent and second-home populations and dwelling units were projected using the 2005 estimates (Section ) increased by 3.5 percent per year beginning in (The calculations through 2012 assume that 156 single-family dwelling units per year will be built with 2.2 persons per dwelling unit and that tourist accommodations will increase by 6.5 percent per year.) Projected numbers of additional tourists in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area were calculated assuming tourist accommodations would increase by 3.5 percent per year beginning in Table summarizes the projected medium population growth peak season and average annual populations for the planning area in 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and It also shows the total equivalent population, which estimates resident equivalents as 80 percent of the estimated tourist population REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

17 TABLE Medium Population Growth Scenario Estimate of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Populations for 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2033 with a 3.5 Percent Annual Growth Rate Beginning in 2013 Peak Season Population Category Permanent residents 3,707 4,690 5,570 6,610 9,330 Second-home residents 5,556 7,030 8,340 9,890 13,960 Tourists 1,102 1,660 1,970 2,340 3,290 Peak season totals 10,365 13,380 15,880 18,840 26,580 Peak season equivalents a 10,144 13,050 15,490 18,370 25,920 Average Annual Permanent residents 3,707 4,690 5,570 6,610 9,330 Second-home residents 1,662 2,100 2,490 2,960 4,170 Tourists ,090 1,290 1,830 Average annual totals 5,981 7,710 9,150 10,860 15,330 Average annual equivalents a 5,859 7,530 8,930 10,600 14,960 a Resident equivalents are estimated as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. NOTE: Assumes a 3.5 percent annual growth rate beginning in High Population Growth Scenario (6.5 percent per year after 2012) For the high population growth scenario, permanent and second-home populations and dwelling units were projected using the 2005 estimates (Section ) increased by 6.5 percent per year beginning in (The calculations through 2012 assume that 156 single-family dwelling units per year will be built with 2.2 persons per dwelling unit and that tourist accommodations will increase by 6.5 percent per year.) Projected numbers of additional tourists in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area were calculated assuming tourist accommodations would increase by 6.5 percent per year beginning in Table summarizes the projected peak season and average annual populations for the planning area in 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and It also shows the total equivalent population, which estimates resident equivalents as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. TABLE High Population Growth Scenario Estimate of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Populations for 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2033 with a 6.5 Percent Annual Growth Rate Beginning in 2013 Population Category Peak Season Permanent residents 3,707 4,830 6,610 9,060 17,030 Second-home residents 5,556 7,230 9,900 13,570 25,470 Tourists 1,102 1,710 2,340 3,200 6,010 Peak season totals 10,365 13,770 18,850 25,830 48,510 Peak season equivalents a 10,144 13,430 18,380 25,190 47,310 Average Annual Permanent residents 3,707 4,830 6,610 9,060 17,030 Second-home residents 1,662 2,160 2,960 4,050 7,600 Tourists ,300 1,780 3,340 BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-17

18 TABLE High Population Growth Scenario Estimate of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Populations for 2006, 2013, 2018, 2023, and 2033 with a 6.5 Percent Annual Growth Rate Beginning in 2013 Population Category Average annual totals 5,981 7,940 10,870 14,890 27,970 Average annual equivalents a 5,859 7,750 10,610 14,530 27,300 a Resident equivalents are estimated as 80 percent of the actual tourist population. NOTE: Assumes a 6.5 percent annual growth rate beginning in Analysis of Population Growth Scenarios Dwelling Units Currently, the City s Wastewater Policy (Resolution 06-08) restricts the distribution of equivalent dwelling units for housing construction to about 156 per year. (See Section 2.1.4, Future Population Estimates.) This is similar to a 3.8 to 3.1 percent increase per year compounded. It has been assumed that these restrictions will not be lifted until additional wastewater treatment capacity is constructed. It is projected that the wastewater facilities will be on-line in Between 2000 and 2005, the number of City of McCall residential building permits issued increased exponentially, from 33 to 316 (Table 2.4-6). The Staff Report Housing Ordinances, City of McCall and McCall Impact Area (City of McCall, 2006a) indicates that the City had 3,056 housing units in 2005 and that there will be an additional 1,500 housing units (that is, 4,556 total housing units) by An increase of 1,500 housing units over a 10-year period would imply a compounded average annual growth rate in housing units of about 4 percent per year. TABLE City of McCall Residential Building Permits Residential Building Permits Issued Change 2000 Permits a Permits a % greater than Permits a % greater than Permits a % greater than Permits b % greater than Permits b % greater than 2004 a Houses and condominiums, Valley County Building Department (Millar Pers. Comm., 2006). b New residences (stick or log construction and manufactured or modular homes, multi-family units, condominium units, and duplexes), City of McCall (Millar Pers. Comm., 2006). The Comprehensive Plan estimated that the demand for City of McCall and Impact Area resident population housing would increase by 1,300 dwelling units between 2000 and 2020 (City of McCall, 2000). If it is assumed that the resident population housing is 40 percent of the total housing demand, the total dwelling units demanded (including second-homes) would be expected to increase by 3,250 during that time period. Using the medium population growth scenario, the increase in the number of dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area from 2000 to 2020 would be 3,678 (Table 2.4-7). 2 2 Note: Participants in an April 12, 2006, workshop in Cascade, Idaho, used a DELPHI technique to project the growth of dwelling units in Valley County for a valley-wide transportation plan. The workshop was led by Valley County Roads Superintendent Gordon Cruikshank and supported by Parametrix (Valley County Engineers). In 2005, the existing number of 2-18 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

19 TABLE Medium Population Growth Scenario Estimate of Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Projected Dwelling Units for 2006, 2013, and 2020 with a 3.5 Percent Annual Growth Rate Beginning in Wastewater Facilities Planning Area a 2006 Wastewater Facilities Planning Area 2013 Wastewater Facilities Planning Area 2020 Wastewater Facilities Planning Area 2000 Population Category City Total Permanent dwelling units 902 1,240 1,685 2,132 2,709 Second-home dwelling units 1,345 1,849 2,525 3,195 4,059 All Dwelling units 2,247 3,090 4,211 5,327 6,768 Additional Dwelling Units Permanent dwelling units ,469 Second-home dwelling units 676 1,346 2,210 All Dwelling units 1,121 2,237 3,678 a Assumes Wastewater Facilities Planning Area is percent greater than the City of McCall (City of McCall, 2000). NOTE: Assumes a 3.5 percent annual growth rate beginning in Population The Comprehensive Plan estimated that the resident population of the City of McCall and Impact Area would increase by 2,980 permanent residents between 2000 and 2020 (City of McCall, 2000). Using the medium population growth scenario, the increase in the resident population for the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area from 2000 to 2020 would be 2,870. (The estimate of the number of people that will become permanent residents of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area is similar, but the Comprehensive Plan projected a higher base population in 2000 than was realized.) See Table TABLE Comprehensive Plan Permanent Resident Population Forecasts (City of McCall, 2000) Compared to Population Forecasts Using Medium Population Growth Scenario for 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 Comprehensive Plan (City of McCall, 2000) Medium Population Growth Scenario a Wastewater Facilities Wastewater Facilities Year City of McCall Planning Area City of McCall Planning Area b ,261 4,485 2,084 b 3,090 c ,760 5,151 2,300 d 3,570 d ,328 5,929 2,769 e 4, ,877 6,681 3,263 e 5, ,449 7,465 3,874 e 5,960 a From 2006 through 2012, the population projections assume an additional 156 dwelling units per year and a 6.5% annual increase in tourist accommodations. Beginning in 2013, the projections assume a 3.5% annual growth rate. b U.S. Census Bureau, c Assumes Wastewater Facilities Planning Area is percent greater than the City of McCall (City of McCall, 2000). d Estimated population based on the number of dwelling units in the area connected to the wastewater treatment facility and an estimate of the number of dwelling units on septic systems. e City of McCall population estimated as 65 percent of the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area population. dwelling units in Valley County was approximately 10,000. The workshop participants estimated that approximately 27,000 (rounded) dwelling units would be in Valley County by BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-19

20 2.4.4 Build Out of Dwelling Units Table summarizes the build-out potential for the McCall Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. The build-out scenario assumes that the wastewater treatment facilities should have the capacity for serving the build out of dwelling units. Assumptions related to dwelling-unit build out include the following: The acreages in the current zoning districts will not change All acreage in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area except that owned by the City or within the Dr. Nokes/University of Idaho Conservation Area is potentially available for dwelling unit build out The existing Wastewater Facilities Planning Area boundary will not change The developable acreage is net of rights-of-way, open space, undevelopable land, inefficient development, and so forth. For zoning districts RR, RE, R1, R4, and R8, the net developable land is 50 percent of the land available For zoning districts CBD, CC, and I, the net developable land is 40 percent of the land available There would be 2.2 people per connection. To determine the potential build out of dwelling units in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area, current and projected zoning in the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area were reviewed. A current zoning map was then used to forecast long-range population growth. Table itemizes the acreage and allowable uses by zone district within the Wastewater Facilities Planning Area. The net number of acres in each zone district available for development (that is, net of rights-of-way, open space, undevelopable land, inefficient development, and so forth) were multiplied by the maximum number of units per acre to determine the number of potential connections at dwelling-unit build out. That number was multiplied by 2.2 people per connection to determine the potential population Summary of Population Growth Scenarios and Dwelling-Unit Build Out Table summarizes the projected peak populations and number of dwelling units for the low, medium, and high population growth scenarios described in this Technical Memorandum. The scenarios assume that, from 2006 to 2013, there will be no more than 156 dwelling units built each year and tourist accommodations will increase by 6.5 percent per year. The population growth scenarios assume that the estimated average annual permanent resident, second-home resident, and tourist equivalent population will increase by the following percentages beginning in 2013: 1.5 percent per year (low population growth scenario) 3.5 percent per year (medium population growth scenario) 6.5 percent per year (high population growth scenario) 2-20 REVISED DRAFT BOI DOC/KM

21 TABLE Dwelling-Unit Build-Out Potential for the McCall Wastewater Facilities Planning Area Land Use Zoning Square District Acres Miles Net Developable a (%) Allowed Dwelling Units per Acre Estimated Dwelling Units Estimated Residents/ Dwelling Unit Dwelling- Unit Build- Out Population Persons/ Square Mile Neither Owned by the City or within the Conservation Area Rural Residential 1 dwelling unit per 10 acres RR 10, % , Residential, Estate 1 dwelling unit per 5 acres RE 1, % Residential, 1 dwelling unit per acre R1 1, % , Residential, 4 dwelling units per acre R4 2, % 4 5, ,143 2,816 Residential, 8 dwelling units per acre R % 8 1, ,850 5,632 Central Business District, with 60 units per acre CBD % 60 2, ,752 33,792 Community Commercial, with 40 units per acre CC % 40 5, ,542 22,528 Industrial, with a variable number of units per acre I % varies b ,379 Total Developable Acres 16, ,713 36,769 1,388 Permanent Dwelling Units 6,685 Second-Home Dwelling Units 10,028 Permanent Resident Population 14,708 Second-Home Peak Season (100%) Population 22,061 City-Owned Rural Residential 1 dwelling unit per 10 acres RR 1 0 Residential, 1 dwelling unit per acre R Residential, 4 dwelling units per acre R Residential, 8 dwelling units per acre R Central Business District, with 60 units per acre CBD Community Commercial, with 40 units per acre CC 1 0 BOI DOC/KM REVISED DRAFT 2-21

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