1 New Energy Outlook 2017
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1 1 New Energy Outlook 217
2 Leveraging the power of Bloomberg Since 1981 Over 15, employees in 192 locations Generating 5, news stories a day from 15 bureaus 32, global clients Since employees in 15 locations on six continents Generating over 8 Insight reports annually 2,5+ global clients 2 New Energy Outlook 217
3 Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 3 New Energy Outlook 217
4 2 experts across six continents 4 San Francisco North America New York Washington DC London 9 Munich Zurich Milan Europe Beijing 35 Asia Pacific Tokyo Shanghai New Delhi Hong Kong 3 Africa Singapore 5 South America Sao Paulo Cape Town Sydney 4 New Energy Outlook 217
5 Global Key Messages NEO 217 Seb Henbest, Lead 5 New Energy Outlook 217
6 Our approach Global coverage, with detailed, bottom-up modelling for 2 countries. Total demand, peak demand and load profiles. Active project pipeline and near-term BNEF country and industry forecasts. Model the supply mix by deploying least-cost technology options to meet demand. Subsidies and policy targets are excluded. 6 New Energy Outlook 217
7 What s new? Refreshed inputs technology cost curves, fuel prices, macroeconomics, consumer adoption Dynamic EV charging Batteries for peak demand Offshore wind costs New geographies Italy, Iberia, Turkey, MENA, Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, 6 Chinese grids, 7 U.S. ISOs 7 New Energy Outlook 217
8 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 8 New Energy Outlook 217
9 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 9 New Energy Outlook 217
10 Solar and wind attract 73% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, Investment, by technology, ($ trillion real) Fossil fuels 14% Wind Solar $2.8 $3.3 $1.2 trillion Nuclear $1.4 Hydro $1.1 Zero-carbon 86% Gas $.8 Coal $.7 1 New Energy Outlook 217
11 Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Global cumulative installed capacity: 216 Global cumulative installed capacity: 24 Small-scale Utility-scale PV PV 2% 3% Hydro 17% Onshore wind 7% Nuclear 5% Oil 6% 6,719GW Gas 24% Coal 3% Utility-scale PV 22% Flexible capacity Small-scale PV 1% Onshore wind 14% Coal 13% 13,919GW Gas 14% Nuclear 3% Hydro 12% 11 New Energy Outlook 217
12 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 12 New Energy Outlook 217
13 Solar technology is getting cheaper, faster 216 ($/W) (est) , 1, 1, 1,, Cumulative capacity (MW) historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13 New Energy Outlook 217
14 Solar technology is getting cheaper, faster 216 ($/W) NEO % learning rate NEO % learning rate (est) , 1, 1, 1,, Cumulative capacity (MW) historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 New Energy Outlook 217
15 Tipping point 1: new vs new China $/MWh (real 216) CCGT U.S. $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Coal 2 Onshore wind Utility-scale PV CCGT Coal 2 Onshore wind New Energy Outlook 217
16 Tipping point 1: new vs new Japan India $/MWh (real 216) Onshore wind CCGT Coal 5 Utility-scale PV New Energy Outlook 217
17 Tipping point 2: new vs existing Germany $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal CCGT China $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal CCGT New Energy Outlook 217
18 Tipping point 2: new vs existing U.S. $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal CCGT India $/MWh (real 216) Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Coal CCGT New Energy Outlook 217
19 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 19 New Energy Outlook 217
20 Turbine price by delivery date million Euro/MW Global (ex. China) Germany (ExTool) Denmark (Extool) US (LBL) China (BNEF) Vestas global Note: Data by contract signing date 2 New Energy Outlook 217
21 Onshore wind is getting cheaper as capacity factors rise Onshore wind capacity factor 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 299MW % Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada Note: Note: Averages are capacityweighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P9 value in the capacity factor tool. Capacity factor forecast for the U.S 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Notes: Line shows central case, error bars reflect the range between low speed and high speed sites 21 New Energy Outlook 217
22 Offshore wind has surprised us $/MWh (216 $) Anholt Note: Projects by commissioning date. Full dots show the project level LCOEs have been estimated using winning tariffs, tariff duration, indexation (if applicable) and a power price assumption for the merchant tail. 22 New Energy Outlook 217 BNEF central view Denmark Borssele I & II Borssele III & IV Danish near-shore Completed auction CfD-R1-East Anglia 1 Horns Rev III Zuid I & II Netherlands CfD-R1-Neart na Goithe Zuid III & IV CfD-Round 2 Noord Gode Wind 3 Germany He Dreiht BRW II, OWP West CfD-Round 3 Krieger's Flak U.K. Planned auction Historical BNEF central LCOE BNEF LCOE range (H2 216)
23 : 3: 6: 9: 12: 15: 18: 21: Offshore wind has surprised us Turbine size Generation profiles: Germany LCOE - Germany normalized $/MWh (real 216) MW 15 15MW turbines estimated 12 9 Projec 6 496MW 12-month weighted 3 4MW 12MW % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Offshore Onshore Offshore wind Onshore wind CCGT Coal Utility-scale PV 23 New Energy Outlook 217
24 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 24 New Energy Outlook 217
25 APAC: 47% of investment China & India: 83% of investment in APAC Cumulative capacity additions Cumulative investment ($ billion real) ($ billion real) APAC $4,828 China $2,823 AMER $1,485 India $1,157 META $1,454 SE Asia $431 Japan $195 RoW $1,264 South Korea $142 Europe $1,185 Australia $79 Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other 25 New Energy Outlook 217
26 Electricity intensity vs. GDP/capita in different countries, $-29/kWh , 1, 1, $-29/capita 26 New Energy Outlook 217
27 Electricity intensity vs. GDP/capita in different countries, 2 $-29/kWh , 1, $-29/capita 1, 27 New Energy Outlook 217
28 Electricity intensity vs. GDP/capita in different countries, 25 $-29/kWh , 1, $-29/capita 1, 28 New Energy Outlook 217
29 Electricity intensity vs. GDP/capita in different countries, 21 $-29/kWh , 1, $-29/capita 1, 29 New Energy Outlook 217
30 Electricity intensity vs. GDP/capita in different countries, $-29/kWh , 1, $-29/capita 1, 3 New Energy Outlook 217
31 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 31 New Energy Outlook 217
32 Demand response and batteries help meet peak demand and help balance the grid GW 1,2 1, Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Top 5 markets in 24 China 343GW U.S. 2GW India 127GW Japan 62GW Germany 3GW 32 New Energy Outlook 217
33 Batteries can help meet peak, but its limited MW Battery capacity ($/marginal MW) 1,6, 1,4, Peak duration Hour 1,2, 1,, BATT $/MW Battery capacity starts being used for peaking Marginal 8, 6, OCGT Capex 4, 2, 33 New Energy Outlook 217 Year
34 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 34 New Energy Outlook 217
35 Variable component of retail electricity prices ($/MWh) Variable component of retail electricity prices ($/MWh) More and more households and business will go solar Denmark Germany Netherlands UK Japan Italy Greece France Slovakia CA USA Bulgaria Czech Romania Indonesia Republic China India Portugal Spain Australia Brazil Texas Mexico South Africa Irradiation (kwh/kw/year) 5GW 1GW Chile LCOE Denmark Germany Portugal Italy Japan Greece UK USA Brazil CA Netherlands France Indonesia Slovakia China India Czech Republic Spain Australia Mexico South Africa Texas Romania 75 1,25 1,75 2,25 Irradiation (kwh/kw/year) 5GW 1GW Chile LCOE New Energy Outlook 217
36 Impact of behind the meter generation to total demand Mexico Brazil TWh 6 TWh 1, 5 4 Small-scale PV Net demand Net demand Small-scale PV New Energy Outlook 217
37 Australia, Germany, Japan, Brazil most decentralized Decentralization ratio 5% 45% Australia 4% 35% 3% Italy Germany Brazil 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Japan Thailand Mexico United States India China % Note: decentralization ratio is the ratio of non-grid-scale capacity to total installed capacity. 37 New Energy Outlook 217
38 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 38 New Energy Outlook 217
39 Li-ion battery prices to fall another 73% to 24 $/kwh 1,1 1, $273/kWh $73/kWh New Energy Outlook 217
40 EVs arrest slide in grid demand Germany Germany TWh Gross demand Net demand Small-scale PV TWh Gross demand Net demand Small-scale PV EVs New Energy Outlook 217
41 : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: Fixed and dynamic charging U.K.: daily load profile, 24 MWh 9, 8, EV dynamic 7, 6, EV fixed 5, 4, 3, General load 2, 1, 41 New Energy Outlook 217
42 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 42 New Energy Outlook 217
43 Poor outlook in U.S, Europe Mixed in Asia Coal generation TWh 1,8 1,6 1,4 Coal generation TWh 6, 5, China 1,2 U.S. 1, 8 Europe , 3, 2, 1, SE Asia India New Energy Outlook 217
44 Poor outlook in U.S, Europe Mixed in Asia Coal generation TWh 6, 5, Coal generation TWh 6, 5, China 4, 4, 3, 2, U.S. 1, Europe , 2, 1, NEO % India +5% SE Asia New Energy Outlook 217
45 Poor outlook in U.S, Europe Mixed in Asia Coal generation TWh 6, Coal generation TWh 12, 5, 1, Global 4, 8, 3, 6, China 2, U.S. 1, Europe , 2, U.S. India Europe SE Asia New Energy Outlook 217
46 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 46 New Energy Outlook 217
47 Gas plays an important role, but its not bulk energy Incremental change in gas consumption Bcm/yr Incremental change in gas vs. coal generation Δ generation (TWh) 1, , China India Rest of APAC Americas Europe ME & Africa ROW Coal Gas 47 New Energy Outlook 217
48 Germany hourly dispatch , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Peaker gas 2, 1, Baseload gas : 4: 8: 12: 16: 2: Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Biomass/WtE Onshore wind Offshore wind Utility-scale PV Small-scale PV Solar thermal Flexible capacity 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Peaker gas 1, Baseload gas : 4: 8: 12: 16: 2: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Forecast 48 New Energy Outlook 217
49 Key messages Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Solar s challenge gets more serious Onshore wind costs fall fast, and offshore falls faster China and India are a $4 trillion opportunity for the energy sector Batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster reach of renewables Homeowners love of solar grows Electric vehicles bolster electricity use and help balance the grid Coal-fired power collapses in Europe and the U.S., peaks globally by 226 Gas is a transition fuel, but not in the way most people think Global power sector emissions peak in just over ten years, then decline 49 New Energy Outlook 217
50 Emissions peak in 226 Global power sector CO2 emissions (MtCO2) Global power sector CO2 emissions (MtCO2) 16, 14, NEO216 16, 14, NDC trajectory 12, 1, NEO217 12, 1, NEO217 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, New Energy Outlook 217
51 but 2 degree is an additional $5.3 trillion Global power sector CO2 emissions Total investment in zero-carbon capacity (MtCO2) 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, NEO217-2deg trajectory NEO217 ($ trillion real) $3. $3. $ $ $2. $1.7 $ $ $2.1 $2.5 NEO217 2 degrees 2, New Energy Outlook 217
52 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 52 New Energy Outlook 217
53 53 New Energy Outlook 217
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